Emissions from land use change and soilcarbon changes in carbon footprints ofanimal productsChristel Cederberg and Stefan ...
Increased competition over landProduction of livestock products- ~75% of global agricultural land- FAO:s global meat consu...
Outline• CO2-emissions from Land Use Change – caseBrazilian beef• Emissions/sequestration from Land Use• Including land-re...
Land use impactsTransformation impacts Occupation impactsLand use change (LUC) –emissions of CO2
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels andLand Use Change, LUCDatasources:Marlandetal.(2007)forfossilfueluseandHoughton(2008)forl...
Calculating C emissions from LUC – case Brazilian beefCH4 CO2 N2OMATERIALS- Diesel- Fertiliser- (Pesticides)- (Medicine)FE...
Typical cycles of land use afterdeforestation in the Brazilian AmazonBased on figures in: Ramankutty et al (2007) Global C...
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4PASTURE+ + + ......?........?GHG emissions caused by Direct Land Use ChangeCO2 overseveral year...
Amazon forest transformed to pasture• Total LUC emissions 612 ± 212 ton CO2e/ha• High uncertainty! Mostly due to uncertain...
ExportBeef export mostlyfrom non-deforestation states02 0004 0006 0008 00010 0001997 1999 2001 2003 20051000tonCWETotal pr...
GHG emissions from Brazilian beef and EU beef2011-04-01EU Sweden BrazilLUCno LUC Total Amazon Direct 20 yrsCO2 from fossil...
Carbon credit for biofuels versus carbonemissions from land use changeGrowing feedstock for biofuelsremove CO2 from atmosp...
Economic equilibrium modelling to estimateindirect land use change from biofuelsIncreased demand, crop AReduceddemand,crop...
Estimates of indirect land useemissions from biofuels vary wildlyReference Year LUC impact,gramCO2e/MJ fuelNet impact ofbi...
Important problems with data andmethodology when assessing LUC• D: Areas deforested and initialCarbon stock• D: land use a...
Land use impactsTransformation impacts Occupation impactsLand use (LU)CO2-emissions/C-sequestration?
Verifying soil carbon changesBASELINEArable land, stock75 ton C/ha(0-25 cm)25 cmACTIONWe do a new managementactivity, posi...
C-TOOL –3-pooled dynamic soil carbonmodel
Important parameters for estimatingsoil carbon changes• Carbon input– crop residues– Organic material (e.g. manure)• Initi...
Carbon in harvest products and cropresidues-8-6-4-20246C inharvestC in cropresiduesTonC/ha
Dairy case study -Västra Götaland region BaselineMaize &grass More grassKg DM per cow*yrGrass/cloversilage,pasture 3 367 1...
Milk and beef can be produced with differentfeed rations…..effects on soil carbon changes?0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,70...
Land occupation,m2 per kg milk and year00,20,40,60,811,21,41,61,8Base Maize More grassSce I Sce II Sce IIIm2perkgmilkandye...
Experiences from modelling soil C changes fordifferent feed rations in milk production• Initial soil carbon status is very...
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E missions from land use change and soil carbon changes in c arbon footprints of animal products

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E missions from land use change and soil carbon changes in c arbon footprints of animal products

  1. 1. Emissions from land use change and soilcarbon changes in carbon footprints ofanimal productsChristel Cederberg and Stefan WirseniusDepartment of Energy and Environment, ChalmersSIK, the Swedish Institute for Food andBiotechnology,KSLA 24 May 2013Chalmers University of Technology
  2. 2. Increased competition over landProduction of livestock products- ~75% of global agricultural land- FAO:s global meat consumption todouble by 2050New climate policies? –more expensive to emitfossil CO2...will lead to increased demand forbiomass for energy production
  3. 3. Outline• CO2-emissions from Land Use Change – caseBrazilian beef• Emissions/sequestration from Land Use• Including land-related emissions andsequestration in GHG estimates of animalproducts
  4. 4. Land use impactsTransformation impacts Occupation impactsLand use change (LUC) –emissions of CO2
  5. 5. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels andLand Use Change, LUCDatasources:Marlandetal.(2007)forfossilfueluseandHoughton(2008)forlandusechange.02468101850 1900 1950 2000GlobalCO2emissions(GtC/yr)Land use change - the tropicsLand use change - restofthe worldFossil fuel use & cementmanufacture
  6. 6. Calculating C emissions from LUC – case Brazilian beefCH4 CO2 N2OMATERIALS- Diesel- Fertiliser- (Pesticides)- (Medicine)FEED- Mineral feed- Comple-mentary feedBEEFCO2Feed ManureBEEF LIVESTOCKPASTURE LANDNATIVE FORESTLand use change: pasture expansionSource: Cederberg et al 2011. Env Sc & Tech 45:1773-1779
  7. 7. Typical cycles of land use afterdeforestation in the Brazilian AmazonBased on figures in: Ramankutty et al (2007) Global Change Biology 13, 51-66
  8. 8. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4PASTURE+ + + ......?........?GHG emissions caused by Direct Land Use ChangeCO2 overseveral yearsAfter x years are some of theland abadonned – regrowth offorest mostly
  9. 9. Amazon forest transformed to pasture• Total LUC emissions 612 ± 212 ton CO2e/ha• High uncertainty! Mostly due to uncertaintiesin carbon content of the original forest• Distributing 6% of biomass to timber productsremoved before burning the forest• Distributing emissions from agricultureproducts (beef) 572 ± 198 ton CO2e/ha• Amortize emissions over 20 years
  10. 10. ExportBeef export mostlyfrom non-deforestation states02 0004 0006 0008 00010 0001997 1999 2001 2003 20051000tonCWETotal productionDomestic consumptionExports
  11. 11. GHG emissions from Brazilian beef and EU beef2011-04-01EU Sweden BrazilLUCno LUC Total Amazon Direct 20 yrsCO2 from fossilfuels3.3 2.2 0.3Methane (CH4) 10.1 12.5 21.6Nitrous oxide(N2O)9.1 5.1 6.3LUC - - - 44 180 726Total 22.5 19.8 28.2 72 208 754System boundary?Total: LUC emissions distributed total beef productionAmazon: LUC emissions distributed over beef production in Amazon regionDirect 20 yrs: LUC emissions only on beef production on the pasturelanddeforested the last 20 yrs
  12. 12. Carbon credit for biofuels versus carbonemissions from land use changeGrowing feedstock for biofuelsremove CO2 from atmosphereGrowing feedstock for biofuels means adirect and/or indirect carbon costBy excluding LUC-emissions, analyses of biofuels are one-sided becausethey used only the carbon benefits of using land but not the carbon costsby diverting land from its existing use (Searchinger et al 2008)
  13. 13. Economic equilibrium modelling to estimateindirect land use change from biofuelsIncreased demand, crop AReduceddemand,crop AIntensifiedproduction,crop ACultivation ofcrop A onprevious non-agricult landCrop A replacescrop BReduced demandcrop BIntensifiedproduction cropBCultivation ofcrop B onprevious non-agr landCrop Breplaces cropCEtc…………Price increase
  14. 14. Estimates of indirect land useemissions from biofuels vary wildlyReference Year LUC impact,gramCO2e/MJ fuelNet impact ofbiofuelconsumption whenincl LUC, gCO2e/MJSearchinger et al 2008 156-270 127 to 232EPA (US Renew Fuel Standard 2009 106-130 41 to 52CARB (California Low Carb FuelStandard2009 44-68 15 to -13Tyner 2009 36 8EPA final 2010 8-54 -4 to -69Hertel et al 2010 40 10Tyner et al 2010 21-32 1 to -9IFPRI (EU comm) 2010 17 -43European Commission 2010. The impact of land use change on greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels and bioliquids. Literature review
  15. 15. Important problems with data andmethodology when assessing LUC• D: Areas deforested and initialCarbon stock• D: land use after LUC• M: Amortisation period• M: DLUC ok with above data but• M: ILUC – requires complexmodelling including land useand trade of agr and biofuelproducts
  16. 16. Land use impactsTransformation impacts Occupation impactsLand use (LU)CO2-emissions/C-sequestration?
  17. 17. Verifying soil carbon changesBASELINEArable land, stock75 ton C/ha(0-25 cm)25 cmACTIONWe do a new managementactivity, positive for C-seqbinding 400 kg C/ha*yr.We do this for 25 yrsTime factor important!Efter ett år är ökningen0,5%, dvs mycket liten,svårt att mäta medjordprovAfter 25 yrs C-stock hasincreased by 10 ton C/ha to85 ton C/ha.This can be measured400 kg C/ha*yr = ca 1,5 ton CO2/ha*yr.Diesel 80l/ha emits ca 250 kg CO2/ha *yr
  18. 18. C-TOOL –3-pooled dynamic soil carbonmodel
  19. 19. Important parameters for estimatingsoil carbon changes• Carbon input– crop residues– Organic material (e.g. manure)• Initial carbon stock in soil• Temperature• Clay content• Water content• Carbon/Nitrogen ratio• Tillage(?)
  20. 20. Carbon in harvest products and cropresidues-8-6-4-20246C inharvestC in cropresiduesTonC/ha
  21. 21. Dairy case study -Västra Götaland region BaselineMaize &grass More grassKg DM per cow*yrGrass/cloversilage,pasture 3 367 1 601 4 499Maize silage 549Super-pressed pulp 427Grain 1 409 1 582 876Concentrates 1 314 1 383 645Total 6 090 5 542 6 020-- Comparison threefeed rations for dairycows producing 9000kg milk/yr- Soil carbon changesfor the three rationswere estimated usingC toolFeed rations according to Liljeholm et al, 2009
  22. 22. Milk and beef can be produced with differentfeed rations…..effects on soil carbon changes?0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,80Baseline Maize & grass More&BetterGrasskgDMfeedperkgmilkConcentratesGrainSuper-pressed pulpMaize silageGrass/clover silage, pastureProduction level9000 kgmilk/cow*yearWirsenius & Cederberg, ”Soil carbon sequestration as a greenhouse gas mitigation option in dairyproduction”, manus in prep
  23. 23. Land occupation,m2 per kg milk and year00,20,40,60,811,21,41,61,8Base Maize More grassSce I Sce II Sce IIIm2perkgmilkandyearOtherBy-prod sugar industrySoymealRapeseed mealGrainMaizeGrassland
  24. 24. Experiences from modelling soil C changes fordifferent feed rations in milk production• Initial soil carbon status is very important for thesoil´s carbon sequestration potential• The estimated soil carbon changes are significant,but not of great importance for milk´s total GHGbalance• Feed rations with maize seem to loose soil carbon• Feed rations with maize tend to have lower landrequirement – how is “surplus” land used?• Reasonably correct data on crop residues fromgrasslands needed – lack of data!
  25. 25. Thank you!

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