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Flight Arrival Delay Prediction

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Flight Arrival Delay Prediction

  1. 1. FLIGHT ARRIVAL DELAY PREDICTION Shabnam Abghari Instructor: Hamidreza Chinaei 6th December 2016 CKME 136 – Ryerson University
  2. 2. INTRODUCTION Primary Research question Will a specific U.S. flight arrive at the destination on-time or with delay? Secondary Research Questions When is the best day of week/time of year to fly to minimize delays? Which carrier suffers more delays? How well does departure delay predict arrival delays?
  3. 3. DATASET
  4. 4. APPROACH Data Cleaning Decriptive Analysis Feature Selection Model Selection Tuning, Training, Testing
  5. 5. DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
  6. 6. DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
  7. 7. DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS Arrival delay per airportArrival and departure delay per airport chart
  8. 8. FEATURE SELECTION
  9. 9. MODEL SELECTION
  10. 10. TUNING AND TRAINING Airline TrainAccuracy TestAccuracy Difference TestError RMSE Sensitivity Specifity MQ 82.6% 81.3% 1.3% 18.69% 43.11% 87.85% 73.99% OO 81.2% 79.7% 1.5% 20.30% 45.06% 89.98% 66.20% UA 79.3% 76.7% 2.6% 23.30% 48.27% 81.97% 70.73% AA 78.4% 76.0% 2.4% 24.03% 46.42% 82.70% 69.26% WN 82.4% 74.6% 7.8% 25.38% 50.38% 68.00% 84.55% Origin TrainAccuracy TestAccuracy Difference TestError RMSE Sensitivity Specifity ORD 81.10% 79.07% 2.02% 20.93% 45.75% 80.58% 77.58% DFW 81.27% 78.20% 3.07% 21.80% 44.42% 81.56% 74.83% DEN 79.17% 76.86% 2.31% 23.14% 48.10% 82.01% 71.39% ATL 79.52% 76.38% 3.14% 23.62% 48.60% 80.87% 72.00% EWR 78.07% 74.09% 3.98% 25.91% 50.43% 75.73% 72.49% Method Train Accuracy Test Accuracy Difference Test Error Sensitivity Specifity SVM 80.20% 77.02% 3.18% 22.98% 83.59% 68.71%
  11. 11. CONCLUSION Fewer flights are delayed in April, May, June, September, October, November. Flights are less likely to arrive with delay when their departure time is between 20:00 and 05:00. Carriers with the most delayed minutes are AA (American Airlines), WN (Northwest Airline) and MQ (Envoy Air). airports with the most number of on-time flights are Atlanta, Phoenix and Kentucky Orlando, Atlanta, Dallas and Newark are the most congested airports
  12. 12. CONCLUSION In almost 77% of the cases, if there is a departure delay, then there is an arrival delay or if the departure is on-time, there is no arrival delay. Our phi coefficient is 0.53 So we can say departure delay is one of the positive influencing factors on arrival delay. After modeling with 3 methods, SVM is the winning method with 80.20% training accuracy and in 76.45% of the tests, the prediction of aircrafts arriving on-time or with delay, is correctly done. Our prediction accuracy could potentially improve if we include other strong influencing factors such as “weather”.
  13. 13. ANY QUESTIONS?
  14. 14. THANK YOU!

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