Global change impacts roland barthel

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Global change impacts roland barthel

  1. 1. Global change impacts on groundwater and water supply – an integrated modelling study from southern Germany Roland Barthel1, Tim G. Reichenau2, Markus Muerth3, Christoph Heinzeller3, Karl Schneider2, Rolf Hennicker4, Wolfram Mauser3, Tatjana Krimly5, Michael Elbers6, Anja Soboll7, Johann Wackerbauer8, Stephan Janisch4, Stephan Dabbert5, Jürgen Schmude7, Andreas Ernst6 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Sweden 2 Hydrogeography and Climatology, University of Cologne, Germany Geography and Remote Sensing, Ludwig-MaximiliansUniversity Munich, Germany 4 Institute of Informatics, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Germany 5 Institute for Farm Management, Universität Hohenheim, Germany 6 Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany 7 Economic Geography and Tourism Research, Ludwig-Maximiliansof Munich, Germany 8 CESifo Group, Center for Economic Studies, Munich, Germany 3 Physical Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 1
  2. 2. Literature This presentation tried to summarize very briefly a few selected aspects from a large scale integrated research effort. It might be difficult to understand the scope and objectives based on the slides without further explanations. • The presentation was largely based on the papers: – – Barthel, R., Janisch, S., N. Schwarz, A. Trifkovic, D. Nickel, C. Schulz, W. Mauser (2008): An integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain. Environmental Modelling and Software, 23, 1095-1121 (doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.02.004) – • Barthel, R., Reichenau T., Krimly, T., Dabbert, S., Schneider, K., Mauser, W. (2012) Integrated modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture and groundwater resources. Water Resources Management, 26,7, 1929-1951 Barthel, R. (2011): An indicator approach to assessing and predicting the quantitative state of groundwater bodies on the river basin scale with a special focus on the impacts of climate change. Hydrogeology Journal (2011) 19,3: 525–546. DOI: 10.1007/s10040-010-0693-y Other directly related papers: – Barthel, R., Janisch, S., Nickel, D. & Trifkovic, A. (2010): Using the Multiactor-Approach in GLOWA-Danube to Simulate Decisions for the Water Supply Sector under Conditions of Global Climate Change. – Water Resources Management, 24,2, 239-275 (DOI - 10.1007/s11269-009-9445-y) – Barthel, R. Rojanschi, Wolf, J. & Braun, J. (2005): Large-scale water resources management within the framework of GLOWA-Danube. Part A: The groundwater model. - Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 30, 6-7, 2005, Pages 372-382 – Barthel, R., Jagelke, J., Gaiser, T., Printz, A. & Götzinger, J. (2008): Aspects of choosing appropriate concepts for modelling groundwater resources in regional Integrated Water Resources Management – Examples from the Neckar (Germany) and Ouémé catchment (Benin). - Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 33, 1-2, 92-114 – Soboll, A, Elbers, M., Barthel, R., Schmude, J., Ernst A., Ziller, R. (2011): Scenarios of future water demand: Regional scale modelling of the human-environment-system to support decision making under global change conditions. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 16,4 (2011) 477-498. - DOI: 10.1007/s11027-010-9274-6. Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 2
  3. 3. Climate Change  Global Change European, national and federal state directives Data source: State Environmental Agency Baden-Württemberg Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 3
  4. 4. Global Change – Example: Agriculture - Groundwater Drivers: Changes of outer Conditions Processes, Budget and Property Changes Water Balance Climate Changes of: Ecological and Economical States GW-Recharge GW-Quantity Plant Growth Policy / Water Law Product Prices / Agricultural Policy Legend Irrigation Crop Yields N-Fertilization GW-Quality Land use Farmers’ Income Farmers’ Decisions main direction of dependency strong medium weak foremost gw-quantity related dependency foremost gw-quality related dependency dependency related to both gw-quantity and gw-quality dependency indirect or complex or not well understood dependency Source: Barthel et al. (2012) Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 4
  5. 5. Global Change – Example: Agriculture - Groundwater Scenarios Models Water Balance Climate Indicators GW-Recharge GW-Quantity Plant Growth Policy / Water Law Product Prices / Agricultural Policy Legend Irrigation Crop Yields N-Fertilization GW-Quality Land use Farmers’ Income Farmers’ Decisions main direction of dependency strong medium weak foremost gw-quantity related dependency foremost gw-quality related dependency dependency related to both gw-quantity and gw-quality dependency indirect or complex or not well understood dependency Source: Barthel et al. (2012) Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 5
  6. 6. GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de; 2001 - 2010) “Integrative Techniques, Scenarios and Strategies for the Future of Water in the Upper Danube Basin” Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 6
  7. 7. GLOWA-Danube – The Upper Danube Catchment Upper Danube Catchment: • Area: 77,000 km² • Population: 11.5 Mio. • Elevation: 290 to ~4000 m Rivers Lakes Alluvium Moraines Tertiary Sediments Calcareous Alps Jurassic Karst Mesozoic Rocks Crystalline and Palaezoic Rocks Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 7
  8. 8. GLOWA-Danube: Project Summary • Consequences of Global Change in the Upper Danube Catchment • Interdisciplinary Approach: 18 research groups from different disciplines • Integrated decision support tool ‘DANUBIA’, comprised of 16 fully coupled models • Contribution of our research group (IWS Stuttgart): – Hydrogeological assessment – Models for groundwater flow and contaminant transport – Model for water supply and distribution Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 8
  9. 9. The DANUBIA Simulation System From: Hennicker et al. (2010) Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 9
  10. 10. GLOWA-Danube Global Change Scenarios 2011-2060 Choice 1: Climate Trends Choice 2: Climate Type IPCC regional Baseline Baseline REMO regional 5 warm Winters Open competition MM5 regional Trend Extrapolation 5 hot Summers Choice 3: Social Trends Choice 4: Interventions Information Cooperation Subsidies for Water saving techn. Public welfare 5 dry years Build reservoirs ... • Baseline: Business as usual • Open competition: maximizing individual profit, less consideration of environmental and social aspects • Public welfare: high value of environmental aspects From: Global Change Atlas of the Upper Danube Catchment (2011) Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 10
  11. 11. Climate Change – Past Observations: Temperature (1960-2006) Winter Temperatures: + 1.5 degrees Summer Temperatures: + 2 degrees Source: Global Change Atlas of the Upper Danube Catchment Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 11
  12. 12. Climate Change – Past Observations: Precipitation 1960-2006 Summer Precipitation Winter Precipitation Source: Global Change Atlas of the Upper Danube Catchment Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 12
  13. 13. Simulation results: Groundwater recharge and groundwater levels Recharge Differences [mm] < -600 -600 - -301 a) Günzburg GW-Level-Differences (combined) [m] b) < -10 -9.9 - -5.0 -300 - -201 -4.9- -2.0 -200 - -101 -1.9- -1.0 -0.9 - 0.9 -100 - -51 1.0 -1.9 -50 - 50 2.0-4.9 51 - 100 101 - 200 5.0 - 9.9 Ostallgäu >10 >200 Scenario 2036-2060 minus Reference (1970-2000) nicht modellierte Areas not modeled Bereiche with MODFLOW Scenario 2011-2035 minus Reference (1970-2000) From: Barthel et al. (2012) Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 13
  14. 14. Human response to groundwater change - simulating human decisions g GWL Open Competition 600 430 500 429 400 428 300 427 200 426 100 425 424 0 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 GWL Open Competition 600 734 500 733 400 732 300 731 200 730 100 729 0 728 2011 Barthel et al. Günzburg district Danube low lands, arable land, wide alluvial aquifers GWR low pass filtered GWL Baseline Ostallgäu Groundwater Recharge [mm/a] GWR 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 Groundwater Level [m.a.s.l.] 2011 Groundwater Level [m.a.s.l.] GWR, low pass filtered GWL Baseline Günzburg Groundwater Recharge [mm/a] GWR Ostallgäu district pre-alpine, grassland, narrow alluvial and tertiary aquifers 2056 Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 14
  15. 15. Adaptation (decision making): example groundwater changes (on district level) g GWL Open Competition 600 430 500 429 400 428 300 427 200 426 100 425 0 424 2016 GWR 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2051 2056 GWL Open Competition 600 734 500 733 400 732 critical Everything is fine 300 200 Groundwater Quantity 100 Indicator (“Flag”) 731 730 1 2 3 729 0 728 2011 2016 Günzburg district Danube low lands, arable land, wide alluvial aquifers Translation into “decision relevant information” GWR low pass filtered GWL Baseline Ostallgäu Groundwater Recharge [mm/a] 2046 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 Groundwater Level [m.a.s.l.] 2011 Groundwater Level [m.a.s.l.] GWR, low pass filtered GWL Baseline Günzburg Groundwater Recharge [mm/a] GWR 2051 Ostallgäu district pre-alpine, grasscatastrophic land, narrow alluvial and tertiary aquifers 4 5 2056 Barthel (2011), Hydrogeology Journal Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 15
  16. 16. Modelling of human decisions : Actor Modelling Barthel, R., et al. (2008), Environmental Modelling and Software, at each time step (1 month) Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 16
  17. 17. Example (schematic): Decisions made by Water Supply Companies Models GroundwaterFlow; Soil, groundwaterlevel, groundwater recharge, -baseflow WaterSupply-Model Assessment of state and previous development Barthel et al. <=2 Buisness as usual Flag values >=3 Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund Information campaigns, expansion of resources, crisis management 17
  18. 18. Modeling of human decisions : Water Supply • Decisions (choosing a plan and its actions) based on: – local conditions (hydrogeology, groundwater levels…)  indictors (flags) – individual preferences and properties and – global settings  Societal Scenarios Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 18
  19. 19. Water Demand and Withdrawal [m3/s] Industrial Groundwater Demand [m3/s] Responses of the human actors: Household Water Demand Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 19
  20. 20. Conclusions • Global Change impact assessment: – Needs to be done in an integrated way: people and the environment will adopt to change – Needs to be done on the regional scale – Requires reasonable integrated scenarios, i.e. combined environmental-socioeconomic scenarios • The DANUBIA system comprises all this, but: – It is a complex system that requires experienced users and has high computational demands – It requires lots of input data • Climate change impact assessment on water resources – Requires much better regional projections of precipitation! – Purely scientific approaches to integrated modeling are probably not the ideal solution Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 20
  21. 21. More information • DANUBIA is available under an open source license • All models, scenarios, data sources and many results are published in the Global Change Atlas of the Upper Danube Catchment, available also in English shortly at: www.glowa-danube.de Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 21
  22. 22. Barthel et al. Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund 22

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