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The Costly Greek Lignite And The Fossil Fuels Outlook

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6th International Forum: Mineral Resources in Greece
http://www.mineralresources.gr/

Presentation of Marios Leonardos
Mining Expert
Public Power Corporation

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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The Costly Greek Lignite And The Fossil Fuels Outlook

  1. 1. The Costly Greek Lignite And The Fossil Fuels Outlook Dr Marios Leonardos Public Power Corporation, Greece Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  2. 2. Greek lignite deposits characteristics ! Relatively small deposits separated by faults ! Deep deposits ! Extremely low LQV ! High stripping ratio ! Zebra type lignite ! Presence of hard layers in the overburden (blasting required) Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  3. 3. European Lignites Stripping ratio (t/m3 ) ø LQV (kJ/Kg) Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  4. 4. Lignite Cost Benchmarking Mine Production Mt/y Lignite Cost €/t Stripping Ratio t/m³ Excavation Cost €/m³ Fuel Cost €/Gcal Mini Maritsa Iztok/BG 33 9,8 4,0 2,06 6,3 Kolubara, Serbia 30 13,3 2,2 3,83 7,0 Freedom, North Dakota USA 15 13,0 5,2 2,20 3,5 Belchatow, Poland (OPEX) 40 9,6 2,6 2,92 6,4 Schleenhain Mine / Germany 11 12,0 3,0 3,00 4,6 MIBRAG (all mines- OPEX) 19,6 10,0 4,0 2,05 3,8 Rovinari / Romania 6,3 14,8 5,3 2,44 9,2 Visonta/Bűkkabany / Hungary 8,15 15,0 6,9 1,96 8,8 Greek Lignite Mines 48 15,3 4,8 2,70 12,9 Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  5. 5. Lignite Cost Benchmarking Excavation Cost Stripping Ratio €/m³ t/m³ Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  6. 6. Lignite Cost as Fuel €/Gcal Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  7. 7. Power Balance TWh Greek Interconnected System Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  8. 8. Greek Lignite Mines Stripping Ratio m³/t Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  9. 9. Greek Lignite - Fuel Cost €/Gcal Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  10. 10. Electricity generation Fuel Cost Comparison Ngas Hard Coal PPC Lignite PPC Lignite PPC Lignite Maritsa 2016 2016 2015 PTOL V PTOL V Bulgaria E/Gcal Th 15,2 8,0 14,7 14,7 12,0 6,3 E/MWh Th 17,7 6,9 12,6 12,6 10,3 5,4 Efficiency Factor % 56,0 46,0 32,6 46,0 46,0 40,0 E/MWh el 31,6 15,0 38,8 27,5 22,4 13,5 Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  11. 11. Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  12. 12. Ριζική ανατροπή στο ενεργειακό πλάνο της χώρας, από το οποίο διαγράφονται οριστικά οι πέντε σχεδιαζόμενες λιθανθρακικές μονάδες ηλεκτροπαραγωγής, ενώ θα συνεχιστεί το... εμπάργκο σε ανάλογα πυρηνικά εργοστάσια, επιφέρει ο νέος επί της Ανάπτυξης υπουργός Κωστής Χατζηδάκης. Την αποκάλυψη αυτή, που προκαλεί ήδη έντονες συζητήσεις τόσο στη ΔΕΗ όσο και σε ιδιώτες επιχειρηματίες που προχωρούσαν σε επενδύσεις σε ηλεκτροπαραγωγικές μονάδες λιθάνθρακα, έκανε χθες το μεσημέρι έγκυρη πηγή του υπ. Ανάπτυξης. n «Δεν είναι στις προτεραιότητές μας οι λιθανθρακικές μονάδες, και λόγω των αντιδράσεων στη δημιουργία τους των τοπικών κοινωνιών ούτε οι πυρηνικές», ανέφερε η κορυφαία αυτή πηγή του υπουργείου Ανάπτυξης. Εσπευσε δε να διαβεβαιώσει, με αφορμή σχετικά επίμονα ερωτήματα των δημοσιογράφων, πως δεν πρόκειται να υπάρξει πρόβλημα επάρκειας ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας φέτος, καθώς και οι υδροηλεκτρικοί σταθμοί είναι «γεμάτοι», ενώ κάθε αύξηση στη ζήτηση θα αντιμετωπιστεί και με την ανάπτυξη μονάδων αεριοστροβίλων, σε τοποθεσίες όπου παρατηρείται αιχμή στην κατανάλωση. Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  13. 13. GREEK LIGNITES AND EU POLICIES 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 LIGNITE PRODUCTION (Mt/year) Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  14. 14. Ptolemais basin mining area consisted of several deposits ("Fields"), scheduled to be mined according to Stripping Ratio, Lignite Quality, Size, Position and Production Requirements We now exploit the LAST three deposits and PPC Mines are seeking a complete deposit exploitation.Reasons: • Obligation from mining concession • Lignite cost • Environment Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  15. 15. Mining cost is minimum at the end of a lignite field mining operation Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  16. 16. Significant environmental impact for Ptolemais basin region in case the planned sequence of the mining fields will not be completed smoothly. The ground surface will not be restored to a usable form. The Company (or the country) will pay an unbearable cost to correct the situation. Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  17. 17. TPP COMMI- SSION DECOMMI- SSION OPERATION YEARS New Unit PTOL5 2019 2061 45 Opt out (17500h) KARDIA1 1975 2018 43 KARDIA2 1975 2018 43 KARDIA3 1980 2019 39 KARDIA4 1981 2019 38 Transitional national plan AGIOS DEM1 1984 2029 45 AGIOS DEM2 1984 2029 45 AGIOS DEM3 1985 2030 45 AGIOS DEM4 1986 2031 45 AGIOS DEM5 1997 2042 45 Opt out (17500h) AMYNT1 1987 2018 31 AMYNT2 1987 2018 31 Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  18. 18. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 Mt PTOLEMAIS AMYNTAION Depletion of Lignite Deposits in Ptolemais and Amyntaion Basins Reserves (Mt) 2014 2020 2061 PTOLEMAIS 788 621 87 AMYNTAION 83 60 60 Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  19. 19. Problems from the transitional national plan ! Cost of investments for TPPs upgrade (170 M €) ! TPPs increased operating costs Other problems from early decommission of Kardia and Amyntaion TPP (March / 2018) ! Power 1800 MW suddenly lost from the system ! Gap in electricity production (PTOL5 to be ready 2019 - 20) ! Decommission before 45 years ! District heating in Amyntaion area lost ! Gap in district heating Ptolemais city Solution Increase of operating hours from 17500 to 32000. Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  20. 20. Fossil Fuels Future Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  21. 21. Climate Action Paris Agreement  A legally binding, universal agreement  189 nationally determined contributions (NDCs)  Ambitious long-term goals  Dynamic 5-year ambition cycle  Enhanced transparency and accountability  Greater emphasis on adaptation  Support for poor and vulnerable countries Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  22. 22. Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  23. 23. • Coal and gas prices to stay low. • Wind and solar costs fall sharply. • Fossil fuel power attracts $2.1 trillion. Investment in coal and gas generation will continue, predominantly in emerging economies. Some $1.2 trillion will go into new coal-burning capacity, and $892 billion into new gas-fired plants. • But renewables take lion's share. Some $7.8 trillion will be invested in green power. • On top of the $7.8 trillion, the world would need to invest another $5.3 trillion in zero-carbon power by 2040 to prevent CO2 in the atmosphere rising above 450 ppm. • Electric car boom supports electricity demand. • Small-scale battery storage, a $250 billion market. • China coal-fired generation will follow weaker trend than previously projected. • That makes India the key to the future global emissions trend. Its electricity demand is forecast to grow 3.8 times between 2016 and 2040. Despite investing $611 billion in renewables in the next 24 years, and $115 billion in nuclear, it will continue to rely heavily on coal power stations to meet rising demand. • Renewables to dominate in Europe, to overtake gas in the US. Wind, solar, hydro and other renewable energy plants will generate 70% of Europe's power in 2040. In the US, their share will jump from 14% in 2015 to 44% in 2040, as that from gas slips from 33% to 31%. Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  24. 24. Annual electricity output by the major generating technologies, 2016-40, thousand TWh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance NEO 2016 Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  25. 25. From the fossil fuels surplus we can infer that low prices will stay for the next decade Nuclear energy returns with new technologies, safer and cheaper Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  26. 26. Fission reactor. Proven, affordable, safe and clean Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  27. 27. Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  28. 28. Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016
  29. 29. Thank you Marios Leonardos 6th International Forum – Mineral Resources in Greece Athens, 17/6/2016

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