Setawwa presentation shale as a cost driver

733 views

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
733
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
20
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
23
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Setawwa presentation shale as a cost driver

  1. 1. Chlor-Alkali:Shale Gas as a CostDriverJoel Lindahl, Director Chlor-Alkali, VinylsJoel.Lindahl@ihs.comSE TAWWADecember 2012
  2. 2. IHS & IHS Chemical Who We Are & What We Do 5,500 + people, in 30 countries, speaking 50 languages, serving businesses and governments worldwide. Most notable: CERA & Global Insights We provide comprehensive content, insight, expert analysis, forecasts and software solutions in key areas that are shaping today’s global business landscape. The combination of CMAI, SRIC, ChemicalWeek and Harriman as IHS Chemical provide the industries we serve with the best that each entity has to offer. Advancing Decisions that Advance the World © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 22
  3. 3. Connecting To The IHS Family Energy Oil & Gas Healthcare Transportation Aerospace Government & Defense Military & Power & Security Utilities IHS Chemical IHS Chemical Consumer Electronics & & Retail Telecom Construction Financial Agriculture Metals & Automotive Mining Shipping © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 3
  4. 4. World Chlorine Demand Growth Vs. GDP Growth Percent, % 10 Forecast 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Chlor-Alkali Demand Growth GDP Growth© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 4
  5. 5. Economy & EnergyGlobal economy enters another difficult period • Eurozone real GDP to decrease Real GDP % 2010 2011 2012 2013 in 2012 and 2013 U.S. 3.0 1.8 2.2 1.8 • GDP Forecast for all regions Eurozone 1.8 1.5 -0.2 -0.0 revised downwards Japan 4.5 -0.7 2.4 1.3 • Weakened global economy China 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.9 exerts downward pressure on Brazil 7.5 2.7 1.9 3.8 many commodity prices- but makes caustic short India 9.6 6.9 5.8 6.7 Russia 4.3 4.3 3.6 3.5 • Most GDP risks are on the downside World 4.3 3.0 2.6 2.7 Updated September 2012 © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.5
  6. 6. Issues Shaping Chlor-Alkali• North America −Shale Gas Changing the Industry• Asia −Overcapacity Makes the Market• Europe −Challenges of Technology Conversion© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 6
  7. 7. Stranded Natural Gas vs. Global Oil North America Energy Price TrendsDollars Per MMBtu Gas as a % of Crude, BTU Basis18 70%16 60%14 50%1210 40% 8 30% 6 20% 4 10% 2 0 0% 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Crude (WTI) Natural Gas Gas as % of Crude © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
  8. 8. Importance of Energy in Chlor-Alkali Most of the World Oil  Naphtha  Ethylene EDC  VCM  PVC  Oil  Electricity  Chlor-Alkali Fabricated Products Pipe/Siding & Other North America & Middle East Natural Gas  Ethane  Ethylene EDC  VCM  PVC  Natural Gas  Electricity  Chlor-Alkali China Coal  Carbide  Acetylene VCM  PVC  Coal  Electricity  Chlor-Alkali© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 8
  9. 9. U.S. Shale Gas Changes Dynamics© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
  10. 10. Stranded Liquids from Wet Shale Gas Flow Into Gulf Coast Chemicals Steam CrackersSource:Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. © 2012, IHS EIA 10
  11. 11. U.S. ECU Cash Costs – 2012 Membrane Importance of Electricity Salt/Chemicals $27 • The key cash cost driver for 13% chlor-alkali is electricityElectricity $80 38% • Large scale producers in North America derive 2011 Electricity Costs electricity from natural gas, (Cents/kWh) through co-generation, the North America = 3.0 structure of which forms the Europe = 8.4 basis of our forecasts Brazil = 7.3 • Chlorine isn’t directly exportable, and needs to be transformed into a derivative Fixed $93 to become a global Variable $9 45% 4% commodity- but caustic is a classic global commodity 2012 Total ECU Cash Cost = $209/ECU MT © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 11
  12. 12. ECU Cash Costs: Shale Gas Improves U.S.Cash Costs, Dollars Per Metric Ton600550500450400350300250200150 Middle East100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 USGC ECU Cash Costs WEP ECU Cash Costs NEA ECU Cash Costs CHI ECU Cash Costs © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 12
  13. 13. Shale Gas Double Benefit to Vinyls…Ethylene-Based Vinyls Flow Oxygen Electricity OxyChlor HCL EDC Caustic + Chlorine Ethylene Direct VCM PVC Chlor EDC© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
  14. 14. How to Use Low Cash Costs- Chlorine End-Use Applications Others Vinyls 31% 33% 50+% Durable Goods (Infrastructure & Housing) Water Treatment 6%Pulp & Paper Organics 3% Chlorinated Inorganics Intermediates 20% 2% 5% 2011 World Demand = 60.6 Million Metric Tons © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 14
  15. 15. North America Chlorine Net Equivalent TradeMillion Metric Tons5.5 Net Exports Forecast5.0 • Vinyl chain exports4.5 are the derivative4.0 of choice to move3.5 low cost chlorine3.0 and ethylene from2.5 the region2.01.5 • Cash costs of the1.0 region bring the0.5 opportunity to0.0 compete globally Chloroform EPI Methylene Chloride EDC VCM PVC © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 15
  16. 16. Implication for Capacity: Shale Gas AdvantageLeads to Investment in Chlor-Alkali Capacity Producer Timing (-000- MT Chlorine) 2010 12,480 Shintech Q4-2010 162 FPC Mid-2011 175 Shintech Mid-2011 482 Added Capacity 2010-2014 Dow/Mitsui 2H-2013 800 Westlake 2H-2013 350 OxyChem 2H-2013 183 Others Various 18 Total Announced Additions 2,170 2014 14,650© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 16
  17. 17. Shale Gas – Broad Implications• The Shale Gas Shift in the USGC is changing dynamics − USGC cash costs of ECU production are lower relative to other regions − Cash costs of EDC, VCM, PVC are lower• New investments are based on exports of chlorine (as derivatives) − Generating excess caustic soda production for this region − Creating a trade shift for caustic soda - more net exports• Creating a two-tier US industry − Large multi-nationals integrate chains for exports − Small, close -to -merchant producers serve more of the domestic market, answering transportation concerns for chlorine© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 17
  18. 18. Issues Shaping Chlor-Alkali• North America −Shale Gas Changing the Industry• Asia −Overcapacity Makes the Market• Europe −Challenges of Technology Conversion© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 18
  19. 19. Too Much Capacity- China Drives for Self-SufficiencyCapacity Additions, Million Dry Metric Tons5 China’s Cumulative Capacity4 Change = 27 Million DMT3210-1 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 NAM WEP CHI © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 19
  20. 20. 2012 World Chlorine Demand by Region Africa/Middle Indian Subc. East 4% 4% CIS & Baltics NE Asia 2% 49% Europe 16% S. America 3% N. America SE Asia 19% 3% 2012 World Demand = 62.2 Million Metric Tons© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
  21. 21. 2012 World Caustic Soda Demand 25% 12% 5% Africa/ 12% 14% Middle East CIS & 3% Baltics S. America 15% Europe 2% 17% 6% Indian 15% Subc. 5% N. America 18%Product Segments Pulp Alumina Organics SE Asia NE Asia Soaps/Detergents/Textiles 7% 44% Inorganics Water Treatment Others Global Demand = 66.4 Million Dry Metric Tons© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
  22. 22. Chlorine Operating RatesExcluding Hypothetical CapacityOperating Rates100 • Recession and 95 massive overbuild in China drove 90 unhealthy operating 85 rates • Recovery in North 80 Global America precedes 75 North America other regions West Europe • Low capacity 70 Northeast Asia utilization in Asia China has global 65 implications – high 60 cost region© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 22
  23. 23. Arbitrage Yields a ‘Global Caustic Price’ $450 FOB $410 FOB Northeast Asia USGC $430 FOB $94Middle East CFR Australia February 2012 Spot Caustic Prices © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 23
  24. 24. Energy and Caustic: Price SupportCaustic, U.S. Dollars per DMT Crude, U.S. Dollars per Barrel600 130500 120 110400 100 2011 Avg = $106 per Barrel300 90200 Tosoh Explosion 80 2010 Avg = $78 per Barrel Japan Tsunami100 70 0 60 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 FOB NEA Spot CFR SEA Spot Dubai Crude Oil© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 24
  25. 25. Regional Caustic NetbacksConstant U.S. DollarsU.S. Dollars • Caustic soda global900 NAM WEP NEA xChina price equilibrium will800 occur in a bounded700 range based on energy costs in marginal600 producing regions500400 • Chlorine contributes little to revenue until300 operating rates improve200100 • A cycle peak is forecast in 2016/2018 once 0 operating rates improve© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 25
  26. 26. ECU Margins Differ WidelyU.S. Dollars Per ECU Asset Share Methodology500 North America ECU Margin • Combining the caustic West Europe ECU Margin prices set in high cost400 Asia ECU Margin regions with North American cost position300 generates good ECU margins there200 • Europe high cost100 inhibits investment for technology upgrades 0 • Asia overcapacity-100 persists © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 26
  27. 27. Issues Shaping Chlor-Alkali• North America −Shale Gas Changing the Industry• Asia −Overcapacity Makes the Market• Europe −Challenges of Technology Conversion© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 27
  28. 28. Europe’s Compounding Issues• Europe has structural differences from other developed regions − More fragmented Industry − Many smaller units, resistance to closures − Significant installed mercury capacity• Regulatory Pressures − Mercury conversion target date − REACH complexity, cost − CO2 abatement, cost• Weak Margin environment − High cost of energy − Middle East Producers on one side, USA on the other© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 28
  29. 29. West Europe Needs InvestmentChlorine Capacity, Million Metric Tons1210 8 6 4 2 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Mercury Diaphragm Membrane © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
  30. 30. Given Shale, China, Europe…Caustic Soda Regional Roles Defined Weak cost Growth region position, but extreme Needs investment, overcapacity Price setter New low-cost Higher cash costs, position, Price setter, Growing reliance Marginal on exports, production Investing Largest volume import demand, Price taker Price equilibrator between regions Large import Price Taker demand, Fabulous cost Higher cash cost structure© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 30
  31. 31. Outlook for Caustic TradeGlobal Caustic Soda Net Trade, Thousand Dry Metric Tons 3759 2948 2799 2467 295 289 1586 145 1109 West Europe 1132 United States Northeast Asia 569 528 Southeast Asia Middle East South AmericaNet Trade Flows 2007 2173 2588 2012 3297 1633 1848 2017 2482© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
  32. 32. U.S. Caustic Soda Net TradeMillion Metric Tons Percentage • Net exports must4 25% increase to handle the additional 20% caustic generated3 by chlorine chain 15% exports2 10% • Imports on our East/West coast will1 decline 5% • Exports will become0 0% a significant 07 09 11 13 15 17 percentage Imports Exports Net Exports as % of Total Demand© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 32
  33. 33. Closer to Home… U.S. Market Transforms• Chlorine transportation costs are changing the industry • Liability and cost structure of rail transport is changing economics of the industry • Merchant supply moving near merchant demand • Rising influence of regional production • Shipping acid, bleach preferred over chlorine • Chlorine burners abound • ‘High strength’ bleach travels farther© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 33
  34. 34. Closer to Home… U.S. Market Transforms• Consider these new names in the industry in recent years…. there is a reason • Bleach Tech, Trinity, Odyssey, Kuehne, K2 Pure, Colorado Salt, Allied Universal • All service a specific regional market• Consider these statistics in recent years…there is a reason • 1995 ~24 producers Top 10 = 92% of capacity • 38 % of chlorine internally consumed • Today ~16 producers Top 10 = 95% of capacity • 52 % of chlorine internally consumed© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 34
  35. 35. Closer to Home… U.S. Market Transforms• Industry morphing into two tiers • Integrated players do not sell chlorine • Merchant producers smaller, local • Consolidation continuing- now occurring in the distribution sector• Rise of the acid market • Demand into shale gas is new parameter • Value of acid to market is higher • More ‘on purpose’ acid in the market© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 35
  36. 36. U.S. HCL Prices- Shale gas ‘Pull’ Delivered MidwestDollars Per Solution Short Ton, Delivered325300 HCL 20 Be Forecast275 HCL 22 Be250225200175150125100 75 50 25 0 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 14 Q3 © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 36
  37. 37. Conclusions…Where to Now?• We see 2013 as similar to 2012 • Economies sluggish, energy unchanged…. • Some variation around prices, but no major shift • Chlorine, caustic prices remain ‘bounded’ • Incidents and temporary events drive • New capacity arrives, but does new production-NET?• Input costs to water treatment…. • Don’t expect major price relief or escalation© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 37
  38. 38. Thank you! Available now- Vinyls andChlor-Alkali World Analyses Available Soon- Global Chlor-alkali Cash Cost Curves

×