SEB's Savings Barometer graphs Q2 2010

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SEB's Savings Barometer graphs Q2 2010

  1. 1. Savings Barometer QII 2010 Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  2. 2. SEB Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010  Total household savings = bank deposits, life insurance, mutual funds, bonds, government savings plans, premium pensions and - when noted - directly held equities and housing.  Sources: Statistics Sweden, Bank of Sweden, Swedish National Board of Student Aid (CSN), Swedish Insurance Federation, Swedish Mutual Fund Association, Svensk Fondstatistik/MoneyMate, NASDAQ OM Stockholm Exchange, NGM/NDX, SHB, Nordea Life, SEB Trygg Life, Swedish Pensions Agency, maklarstatistik.se, interim and annual reports of companies.  Compiled by Carl Holm, SEB Trygg Life Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  3. 3. Development Second Quarter 2010 •New savings were 46bn kronor. Savings in bank deposits were 34bn an insurance savings were 14bn. •On the Stockholm Stock Exchange (NASDAQ OM) the AGFX index decreased by 3.7 per cent. •Housing prices increased by 3.3 per cent. •Households increased borrowing by 2.2 per cent during the second quarter. For twelve months the increase was 8.4 per cent. •SEB had a 12.6 per cent market share and Swedbank 14.7 per cent. Alecta had 9.8 per cent, Skandia 9.5 and Nordea 8.9. Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  4. 4. Development Second Quarter 2010 SEK bn Value, beginning of quarter 9,601 Savings +46 Value, shareholdings directly held -27 Value, housing +135 Value, other assets -85 Value, end of quarter 9,670 Loans -2,614 Net assets 7,056 Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  5. 5. Swedish Household Savings Total household savings have SEK m increased by 50.9% since year- end 2004, from SEK 6,410 bn to SEK 9,670 bn. 4 500 000 4 000 000 3 500 000 3 000 000 Bank deposits 2 500 000 Trad insurance 2 000 000 Unit-linked insurance 1 500 000 Mutual funds Bonds 1 000 000 Premium Pensions 500 000 Shareholdings 0 Housing 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  6. 6. Total Household Savings Market Market Shares June 30 2010 (March 31 2010) Others SEB 12.1 (12.5)% 12.6 (12.4)% Government 3.4 (3.4) Swedbank 14.7 (14.7)% Alecta 9.8 (9.7) % Folksam 5.0 (4.9)% Skandia 9.5 (9.5)% LF 4.7 (4.7)% Nordea Handelsbanken AMF 8.9 (8.8)% SPP 8.4 (8.1)% 7.7 (7.7)% 3.4 (3.3)% Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  7. 7. Household Savings Market Shares June 30 2010 Share, per cent Bank Trad. U-L Mutual Bonds Prem Total deposits insur. insur. funds Pens SEB 11.6 10.4 26.1 14.7 8.5 1.9 12.6 Alecta 25.8 9.8 Skandia 2.8 17.3 19.1 0.0 1.1 9.5 LF 3.5 6.8 9.0 0.9 2.9 4.7 Folksam 10.8 7.6 5.0 AMF 17.0 3.6 0.8 8.9 7.7 Handelsbanken 18.8 1.3 8.8 11.1 19.5 2.3 8.4 Storebrand/SPP 5.7 6.3 6.4 3.4 Nordea 16.6 1.2 2.0 22.2 10.3 3.8 8.9 Swedbank 24.1 0.8 14.1 31.7 13.1 18.8 14.7 Government 36.3 26.5 3.4 Others 22.5 3.0 3.3 18.5 12.3 27.3 12.1 Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  8. 8. ”Security Savings” December 31 1999 June 30 2010 Bank deposits Trad insurance U-L insurance Premium Pensions Mutual funds Bonds Shares 41.3% 49.4% Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  9. 9. Total Household Savings 100% 80% 60% Housing Shareholdings Premium Pensions 40% Bonds Mutual funds 20% U-L insurance Trad insurance Bank deposits 0% 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  10. 10. Total Household Savings Market Shares (excluding shareholdings and housing) June 30 2010 (December 31 2004) 100% 80% Others 12.1% (9.3) Government 3.1% (3.3) Folksam 5.0% (4.3) 60% Alecta 9.8% (11.2) AMF 7.7% (7.7) LF 4.7% (4.9) Storebrand 3.4% (-) 40% Handelsbanken 8.4% (11.2) Nordea 8.9% (9.2) Skandia 9.5% (11.5) Swedbank 14.7% (14.0) 20% SEB 12.6% (13.3) 0% 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  11. 11. Bank Deposits, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004) 100% Other banks 22.5% (20.6) 80% Swedbank 24.1% (25.3) Nordea 16.6% (18.9) 60% Handelsbanken 18.8% (15.7) 40% LF 3.5% (2.9) Skandia 2.8% (3.9) 20% SEB 11.6% (12.6) 0% 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  12. 12. Traditional Insurance, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004) 100% Others incl Swedbank 3.8% (1.5) AMF 17.0% (16.3) 80% Nordea 1.2% (1.3) Alecta 25.8% (25.6) 60% Storebrand 5.7% (-) Handelsbanken 1.3% (7.7) Folksam 10.8 (7.0) 40% LF 6.8% (7.1) Skandia 17.3% (20.3) 20% SEB 10.4% (13.0) 0% 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  13. 13. Unit-linked Insurance, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004) 100% Others 3.3% (2.1) AMF 3.6% (2.6) 80% Swedbank 14.1% (17.2) Storebrand 6.3% (-) 60% Handelsbanken 8.8% (13.7) Nordea 2.0% (2.9) 40% Folksam 7.6% (5.5) LF 9.0% (9.3) 20% Skandia 19.2% (22.3) SEB 26.1% (24.4) 0% 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  14. 14. Mutual Funds, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004) 100% Övriga 19.3% (16.6) 80% Swedbank 31.7% (31.5) 60% Nordea 22.2% (20.8) Handelsbanken 11.1% (12.6) 40% Folksam - (2.3) 20% LF 0,9% (1.8) 0% SEB 14,7% (14.1) 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  15. 15. Premium Pensions, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004) 100% Others 27.3% (17.5) 90% Staten 26,5% (33.1) 80% Swedbank 18.8% (12.9) 70% Nordea 3.8% (2.5) 60% Storebrand 6.4% (-) 50% Handelsbanken 2.3% (11.3) 40% AMF 8,9% (8.4) 30% Folksam - (6.1) 20% LF 2.9% (4.2) 10% Skandia 1.1% (1.9) 0% SEB 1.9% (2.2) 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  16. 16. Bonds, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004) The change in bonds issued by SEB QI 2007 is mainly caused by the technique used for measurement and is significantly overstating real changes 100% Others 12.3% (12.6) 80% Gov't 36.3% (52.8) 60% Swedbank 13.1% (10.4) 40% Nordea 10.3% (5.9) Handelsbanken 19.5% (14.8) 20% SEB 8.5% (3.3) 0% 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  17. 17. Savings - Distributed by Company SEK m 04-IV 05-II 05-IV 06-II 06-IV 07-II 07-IV 08-II 08-IV 09-II 09-IV 10-II 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 en k ea B ta P dia F LF n AM SP SE ec ba nk rd an Al No ba ed Sk els Sw nd Ha Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  18. 18. Savings - Distributed by Assets 04-IV 05-II 05-IV 06-II 06-IV 07-II 07-IV 08-II 08-IV 09-II 09-IV 10-II SEK m 2000000 1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 Bank Trad Unit-linked Mutual funds Bonds Premium deposits insurance ins Pensions Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  19. 19. New Savings Excluding Premium Pensions SEK m Quarterly figures 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 05-I 05-II 05- 05- 06-I 06-II 06- 06- 07-I 07-II 07- 07- 08-I 08-II 08- 08- 09-I 09-II 09- 09- 10-I 10-II -10 000 III IV III IV III IV III IV III IV -20 000 -30 000 -40 000 Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  20. 20. New Savings Excluding Premium Pensions SEK m 12 month figures 200 000 180 000 160 000 140 000 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0 05-I 05-II 05-III 05- 06-I 06-II 06-III 06- 07-I 07-II 07-III 07- 08-I 08-II 08-III 08- 09-I 09-II 09-III 09- 10-I 10-II IV IV IV IV IV Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  21. 21. New Savings Second Quarter 2010 Premium Pensions Bonds Mutual funds U-L insurance Trad insurance Bank deposits -15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 SEK m Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  22. 22. New Savings Second Quarter 2010 SPP Alecta AMF Swedbank Nordea Handelsbanken Folksam LF Skandia SEB 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 SEK m Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  23. 23. Change of Total Savings Second Quarter 2010 Premium Pensions Bonds Mutual funds U-L insurance Trad insurance Bank deposits Shareholdings Housing -60 000 -40 000 -20 000 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 SEK m Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  24. 24. Change of Total Savings Second Quarter 2010 Others Gov't Alecta SPP SHB AMF Swedbank Nordea LF Skandia SEB -30 000 -25 000 -20 000 -15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 SEK m Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  25. 25. New Savings and Change of Savings Stock SEK m 300 000 New Savings Change of Savings Stock 200 000 100 000 0 05-I 05-II 05-III 05-IV 06-I 06-II 06-III 06-IV 07-I 07-II 07-III 07-IV 08-I 08-II 08-III 08-IV 09-I 09-II 09-III 09-IV 10-I 10-II -100 000 -200 000 -300 000 Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  26. 26. Houshold Assets Fixed-income Equities Housing SEK bn 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  27. 27. ”Balance sheet” of Households SEK m Assets Liabilities 12 000 000 10 000 000 8 000 000 6 000 000 4 000 000 2 000 000 0 -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II 99 01 02 04 05 07 08 10 Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  28. 28. Share Prices in Stockholm AGFX, 1995-12-30=100 (linked to SIX GX) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  29. 29. New houshold loans QIII compared with corresponding quarter previous year QII 2010 + 57 bn QII 2009 + 60 bn QII 2008 + 68 bn QII 2007 + 62 bn QII 2006 + 55 bn QII 2005 + 53 bn Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  30. 30. Household loans (Change in per cent compared to previous year) June 30 2010 + 8.4% March 31 2010 + 8.8% December 31 2009 + 8.5% September 30 2009 + 7.7% June 30 2009 + 7.3% Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  31. 31. Household Assets and Liabilities June 30 2010 Housing/Mortgage loans Equities/Bank loans Fixed-income/Consumer credits 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 Assets Liabilities SEK bn Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  32. 32. Household Assets and Liabilities June 30 2010 Housing/Mortgage loans Equities/Bank loans Fixed-income/Consumer credits 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 Ass Liab Ass Liab Ass Liab Ass Liab Ass Liab First Quarter of Indicated '97 '97 '00 '00 '03 '03 '06 '06 '10 '10 Year, SEK bn., for 2010 Second Quarter Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  33. 33. Loans SEK m SEK 200bn reclassified from mortgage to bank 1 800 000 loans in QIV 2007 1 600 000 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 Mortgage loans 600 000 Bank loans Consumer credits 400 000 Gov't student loans 200 000 0 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  34. 34. Households’ liability/asset ratio Per cent Liability/asset ratio 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II -IV -II 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  35. 35. SEK m Savings - Distributed by Company 01-I 01-III 02-I 02-III 03-I 03-III 04-I 04-III 05-I 05-III 06-I 06-III 07-I 07-III 08-I 08-III 09-I 09-III 10-I 800 000 700 000 Slide not updated 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 SEB Swedbank Skandia Nordea Handelsbanken LF AMF Alecta Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
  36. 36. Savings - Distributed by Assets 01-I 01-III 02-I 02-III 03-I 03-III 04-I 04-III 05-I 05-III 06-I 06-III 07-I 07-III 08-I 08-III 09-I 09-III 10-I SEK m 2000000 1800000 Slide not updated 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 Bank deposits Trad insurance U-L insurance Mutual funds Premium Bonds Pensions Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010

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