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Reduction Potential and Control Policy of Nitrous  Oxide Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China              Huang Delin Cai So...
1. Introduction1 climate change and greenhouse gas1.1 “Climate change”a change of climate which is attributed directly or ...
Natural climate changewithin the climate system the interaction between themembers;the external factors on the climate sys...
According to the results of scientific research,Near Centennial and Millennium,The correlation coefficient of Global avera...
Carbon cycle changes and feedbacks are likely substantial in both oceanand terrestrial systems IPCC WG1: The IPCC 1990"the...
• 1.1.1 Greenhouse gas            Table 1 Types and characteristics of greenhouse gas  Species              Warming effect...
Table 2 the content change of main greenhouse gases in the atmospherefor nearly 200 years                    μg/L      Yea...
1.1.2 Contribution to the Warming effect ofGreenhouse gas
1.1.3 Greenhouse effect and global warmingCurrently, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere isapproximately 380pp...
Table 1-3 Atmospheric composition: the main component (nitrogen and oxygen)and greenhouse gases (1993)           gas      ...
1.1.4 Carbon dioxide Greenhouse gasIndustry is the major emission sources of carbon dioxide. Industrialcarbon dioxide emis...
Currently, the worlds annual burning of coal, oil and gasand other fossil fuel emissions of CO2 into the atmosphereequival...
It is assumed that if per year emissions growth rate fromfossil fuel combustion is 2% (maximum) to 2040, CO2concentration ...
1.1.5 Non-CO2 greenhouse gasesExcept Carbon dioxide, the other Greenhouse gases dioxide arecollectively referred to as non...
Although the role of "non-carbon dioxide" gas individual to the processof global warming since 19th century is small, But ...
How to construct a rational framework to calculate the relative benefits receivedby emissions reduction of all greenhouse ...
Table 1-4 GWP of greenhouse gases by different time scalesGreenhouse              20-year   100-year   500-year           ...
1.6 Agricultural greenhouse gasAccording to IPCC, the agricultural source of the non-CO2 greenhouse gasemissions mainly in...
2.Model structure2.1 The module of agricultural greenhouse gas  emissions as various production sectors are already set up...
Agro-GHG emission sectorsRice       Wheat        Cattle,    Pigs,                        sheep,     poultry               ...
The simulation is realized mainly by the primary factors and energy investment,intermediate input (excluding energy) and o...
Cattle,sheep and horse                                                       Production                                  L...
The agro-GHG emission equation of region r using agriculturalproduct i is:AGHG(r =     ,i)              ∈                 ...
Then, the global agro-GHG emissions are: GAGHG        ( r) =          ∑                       i ∈ PROD                    ...
2.2. Design the carbon taxDFCTAX(i,             j,r)       = VDFA(i,j,          r) - VDFAN            C(i,j,r)IFCTAX(i,j  ...
Carbon tax rate includes nominal carbon tax and actual carbon tax.Nominal carbon tax means dollars levied on each ton of c...
3.The model database3.1.Input-output dataThe input-output data of the GTAP-E model of China’s agro-GHGemissions is establi...
3.2.Trade dataThe trade data of the GTAP-E model of China’s agro-GHG emission reduction are thebilateral trade data of cou...
3.3. Data of agro-GHG emissions•   The agro-GHG emission data in the GTAP-E model of China’s agro-GHG emission    reductio...
4.The simulation and conclusion4.1 The benchmark scenario4.1.1 Agricultural greenhouse gas emissionin the world(2004 2020)
Table 4.The baseline forecast data of global agricultural greenhouse gas  emission (classified by sectors, carbon dioxide ...
4.1.2. Agricultural greenhouse gasemissions in China(2004 2020)
Table 5.The baseline forecast data of Chinese agricultural greenhouse       gas emission (classified by sectors, carbon di...
4.2Policy simulation scenario to Carbon tax on agriculture Nitrousoxide emissionsPolicy simulation scenario one: per ton o...
Policy simulation scenario two: per ton ofcarbon dioxide equivalent emissionsagriculture nitrous oxide levy 200 dollar ofc...
• 4.3 Results of policy simulation• 4.3.1 Impact on macroeconomic
Table 6: Compared to the baseline scenario, the macro effect     of the simulation scenarioIndex                       The...
4.3.2. Impact on agricultural sector               Table 7: Compared to the baseline scenario, the impact on the agricultu...
Exports changes(%)                   Imports changes(%)               The first The second    The third    The first The s...
Land rent changes(%)          Labor cost changes(%)             The first    The     The third The first    The     The th...
4.3.3Impact on to the baseline scenario, the impact                   Table 8: Compared other sectors                     ...
Exports changes(%)                     Imports changes(%)                        The first    The second The third      Th...
Capital price changes(%)                Labor cost changes(%)                       The first      The       The third   T...
4.3.4 Influence on trade balance  Table 9: Compared to the baseline scenario, the impact on trade balance of simulation  s...
4.3.5The influence on the welfare of the other countriesTable 10:Compared to the baseline scenario, countries welfare chan...
5.Conclusions and SuggestionsThe results showed that levy on agricultural Nitrous oxideemission has changed Chinas export-...
Levy on agricultural Nitrous oxide emission, rice production department andother planting sectors suffered the bigger nega...
So it seems that levy on agricultural Nitrous oxide emission will increaseChinas welfare, change the international trade s...
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Huagn Delin — Reduction potential and control policy of nitrous oxide greenhouse gas emissions in china

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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

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Huagn Delin — Reduction potential and control policy of nitrous oxide greenhouse gas emissions in china

  1. 1. Reduction Potential and Control Policy of Nitrous Oxide Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China Huang Delin Cai Songfeng
  2. 2. 1. Introduction1 climate change and greenhouse gas1.1 “Climate change”a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to humanactivity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and whichis in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparabletime periods.UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATECHANGE
  3. 3. Natural climate changewithin the climate system the interaction between themembers;the external factors on the climate system forcing the climatesystem,which include sea air, land and air, ice, gas and otherinteractions, the mechanism is not fully recognized.
  4. 4. According to the results of scientific research,Near Centennial and Millennium,The correlation coefficient of Global average temperature andsolar activity is 0.88 and 0.73, respectively,Associated with volcanic activity coefficients were -0.40 and -0.49.Which mains we can basically negligible to natural change.And pay attention to human activity
  5. 5. Carbon cycle changes and feedbacks are likely substantial in both oceanand terrestrial systems IPCC WG1: The IPCC 1990"the evidence clearly shows that human influence on global climate."IPCCWG2: The IPCC 1995"new and more solid evidence" shows that human activities associatedwith global warming, "probably" caused by human activity, "may"represents the possibility 66%. IPCC WG3: The IPCC 2001Global warming of the climate system is an indisputable fact, thisphenomenon is likely to be caused by human activity due to the increaseof greenhouse gas concentrations, "very likely" means that the reliability ofconclusions in more than 90%. If no action is taken, human-inducedclimate change may bring some "sudden and irreversible" effects. IPCCWG4: The IPCC 2007
  6. 6. • 1.1.1 Greenhouse gas Table 1 Types and characteristics of greenhouse gas Species Warming effect (%) Lifetime (years) 63% 50-200 CO2 15% 12-17 CH4 4% 120 N2O 11% 13.3 HFCs 11% 50000 PFCs 7% ? SF6 and others
  7. 7. Table 2 the content change of main greenhouse gases in the atmospherefor nearly 200 years μg/L Years CO2(ppmv) CH4(ug/L) N2O(ug/L) 1000-1750 280 700 270 2008 380 1750 316 Increase ( % )35 160 160
  8. 8. 1.1.2 Contribution to the Warming effect ofGreenhouse gas
  9. 9. 1.1.3 Greenhouse effect and global warmingCurrently, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere isapproximately 380ppm, while the equivalent carbon dioxide (including allgreenhouse gas) concentration in the atmosphere reach the 455ppm.Many scientists believe that 450ppm is the highest threshold.Exceededwill cause dangerous climate change due to human behavior.However,taking into account other refrigerating factor, the currentequivalent carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is estimatedto fall back to 310ppmTo 435ppm.
  10. 10. Table 1-3 Atmospheric composition: the main component (nitrogen and oxygen)and greenhouse gases (1993) gas contains N2 78% O2 21% H2O 0%-2% CO2 380ppm CH4 1.8ppm N2O 0.3ppm CFCs 0.001ppm O3 0-1000ppm
  11. 11. 1.1.4 Carbon dioxide Greenhouse gasIndustry is the major emission sources of carbon dioxide. Industrialcarbon dioxide emissions is primarily due to too many modern industrialuse of burning coal, oil and gas,Other emissions of carbon dioxidemainly comes from the oxidation of organic carbon. in the process ofdestroyed Forests
  12. 12. Currently, the worlds annual burning of coal, oil and gasand other fossil fuel emissions of CO2 into the atmosphereequivalent to the total carbon is about 60 million tons;Include 15 million tons of carbon released by land usechange and forestry were destroyedabout 38 million tons of carbon is the annual net increase inatmosphericin additional of about 20 million tons of carbon absorbed bythe oceans, 17 million tons of carbon absorbed by theterrestrial biosphere
  13. 13. It is assumed that if per year emissions growth rate fromfossil fuel combustion is 2% (maximum) to 2040, CO2concentration will reach 550ppmv; If it is 1% (minimum) to2085, CO2 concentrations will reach 550ppmv.
  14. 14. 1.1.5 Non-CO2 greenhouse gasesExcept Carbon dioxide, the other Greenhouse gases dioxide arecollectively referred to as non-carbon dioxide greenhouse.Include: methane: from garbage dumps, gas burning, cow breeding,rice farming and coal mining. Nitrous oxide: emission from theagriculture and transportation. Halogenated hydrocarbons: most ofthem are synthetic gas.
  15. 15. Although the role of "non-carbon dioxide" gas individual to the processof global warming since 19th century is small, But their combined effectis quite significant.the net warming effect produced by Methane, nitrous oxide andhalogenated hydrocarbons is about 2 / 3 of net warming effectproduced by carbon dioxide .
  16. 16. How to construct a rational framework to calculate the relative benefits receivedby emissions reduction of all greenhouse gases.It is “The value of Global warming potential”which means in 100 years, The impact caused by a mass of 1 ton ofgreenhouse gases to global warming is equivalent to The impact caused by thesame quantity of carbon dioxide to global warming in the same period
  17. 17. Table 1-4 GWP of greenhouse gases by different time scalesGreenhouse 20-year 100-year 500-year Lifetimegas GWP GWP GWPCO2 100-200 1 1 1CH4 10 35 11 4N2O 130 260 270 170
  18. 18. 1.6 Agricultural greenhouse gasAccording to IPCC, the agricultural source of the non-CO2 greenhouse gasemissions mainly include the following four aspects: methane emissionscaused by feed fermentation in the intestines of ruminant animals, methaneemissions resulted from the anaerobic environment for the soil was under waterfor a long time in the rice planting; Nitrous oxide emissions caused byexcessive amounts of nitrogen fertilizer in farmland soil; methane and oxygenand nitrogen oxide emissions in the process of livestock manure storage.The fourth assessment report of IPCC shows that agriculture is the mainsource of greenhouse gas emissions. According to estimates, globally,agricultural emissions of CH4 accounting for 50% of the total CH4 emissionscaused by human activities, N2O accounting for 60%. If not implementadditional agricultural policy, it is estimated that by 2030, agricultural sourcemethane and nitrous oxide emissions will be up 60% and 35% ~ 60%individually compared with the percentage in 2005. The IPCC also points outthat, the share of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in global greenhousegas total emissions, which is about 14%, is more than the whole of proportionof transportation industry in global greenhouse gas total emissions.
  19. 19. 2.Model structure2.1 The module of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions as various production sectors are already set up in GTAP-E, we only choose the sectors in the GTAP-E model that reflect agro-GHG emissions.We select sectors emitting agro-GHG according to sector classification of GTAP-E. Then data of agriculture department greenhouse gas emissions will be combined into the database so as to construct the agricultural greenhouse gas emissions module.The specific GTAP-E commodity structure diagram is as follows:
  20. 20. Agro-GHG emission sectorsRice Wheat Cattle, Pigs, sheep, poultry horses
  21. 21. The simulation is realized mainly by the primary factors and energy investment,intermediate input (excluding energy) and output in the model. Specific GTAP-E nested structure chart is as follows:
  22. 22. Cattle,sheep and horse Production Leontief Swine and poultry Intermediateinput (excluding Agriculturalmaterials and Primaryfactors and energy energy) fertilizer inputs CES CESNaturalresources land labor capital-energy Import Domestic CES Other farmland Region a one … Region r rice
  23. 23. The agro-GHG emission equation of region r using agriculturalproduct i is:AGHG(r = ,i) ∈ ∑COMM (i,j,r) + AGHGDFi,j,r)] + AGHGDGi,r) j PROD [AGHGIF − ( (+ AGHGIG ,r) + AGHGDP ,r) + AGHGIP ,r) (i (i (iwherein, AGHG(r,i) refers to the amount of agro-GHG emissions inregion r using energy i. According to this deduction, the total amountof agro-GHG emissions in region r is:GAGHG ( r) = ∑ AGHG ( r , i ) i∈ PROD − COMM
  24. 24. Then, the global agro-GHG emissions are: GAGHG ( r) = ∑ i ∈ PROD AGHG − COMM (r , i)In the design of agro-GHG micro emission amount, the amount of agro-GHG emissions is in direct proportion to the amount of emission sourcesused. The following equation is adopted (taking production emissions asan example): gaghg (i , j , r ) = qf d (i , j , r ) wherein, gaghg(i,j,r) refers to the percentage change of agro-GHG emitted by sector j in region r after using i. qfd(i,j,r) refers to the percentage change of i used by sector j in region r.
  25. 25. 2.2. Design the carbon taxDFCTAX(i, j,r) = VDFA(i,j, r) - VDFAN C(i,j,r)IFCTAX(i,j ,r) = VIFA(i,j, r) - VIFAN C(i,j,r)Wherein, DFCTAX (i, j, r) refers to the value of carbon tax levied on domesticallyproduced i used by sector j in region r. VDFA (i, j, r) refers to the value paid byproducers after excluding carbon tax. IFCTAX (i, j, r) refers to the value of carbontax levied on sector j using imported i in region r. VIFA (i, j, r) refers to the valuepaid by producer j in region r for purchasing imported i, and VIFANC (i, j, r) refersto the value paid by the producer after the producer excludes the carbon tax.
  26. 26. Carbon tax rate includes nominal carbon tax and actual carbon tax.Nominal carbon tax means dollars levied on each ton of carbonemissions. Actual carbon tax is the expression of nominal carbon tax,and the specific equation is as follows:RCTAX(r) = [1.0 / PIND(r)] * [NCTAXB(REGTOBLOC(r)) - 0.01 * NCTAXLEV(r) * p(r)]PIND(r) refers to the level value of income deflator of region r.NCTAXB(REGTOBLOC(r)) refers to the change rate of carbon tax inregion r, and NCTAXLEV(r) refers to the level value of carbon tax.p(r) refers to the change rate of income deflator of region r.
  27. 27. 3.The model database3.1.Input-output dataThe input-output data of the GTAP-E model of China’s agro-GHGemissions is established on the basis of the input-output table of variouscountries and regions, and the base period is 2004. We total up the 57sectors in the model into 13 broad sectors, i.e. rice, wheat, cattle, sheepand horses, pigs and poultry, coal, petroleum, natural gas, petroleumproducts, electricity, energy-intensive industry, other industries, otheragricultural branches, and service industry. The model database includesdata of connected mutual inputs among the 13 sector
  28. 28. 3.2.Trade dataThe trade data of the GTAP-E model of China’s agro-GHG emission reduction are thebilateral trade data of countries and regions, tariff data and trade transportation data, withthe base period at 2004. We total up the 117 countries and regions in the model into 9countries and regions, i.e. the USA, the EU, Eastern European countries and formerUSSR countries, Japan and other Annex I countries, China, energy net export countries,India, and other countries in the world.In the model database, bilateral trade data is three-dimensional data, determined byexport products, export country and import country. Tariff data is also three-dimensionaldata, determined by export products, export country and import country; and tradetransportation data is four-dimensional data, determined by marginal products, exportproducts, export country and import country.
  29. 29. 3.3. Data of agro-GHG emissions• The agro-GHG emission data in the GTAP-E model of China’s agro-GHG emission reduction is constructed in this study according to the following steps.• 1) Determining the kinds of agro-GHG.• 2) Positioning the emission source activities of agro-GHG.• 3) Combining emission activities with GTAP production sectors.• 4) Finding out the emission parameters of agro-GHG emission activities.• 5) Researching the scale of agro-GHG emission activities.• 6) Calculating detailed amount of agro-GHG emissions of each activity.• 7) Converting the amount of agro-GHG emissions into CO2 emissions according to comprehensive warming tendency.• 8) Mapping the agro-GHG emission data to the GTAP-E database according to the sector of emission activities, that is, requiring emission sector to correspond to existing GTAP-E sector.• 9) Adding corresponding variables to GTAP-E database.
  30. 30. 4.The simulation and conclusion4.1 The benchmark scenario4.1.1 Agricultural greenhouse gas emissionin the world(2004 2020)
  31. 31. Table 4.The baseline forecast data of global agricultural greenhouse gas emission (classified by sectors, carbon dioxide equivalent, millions t) 2004 2010 2015 2020 The growth rateSectorsRice 749.44 756.48 751.41 735.76 -0.61%Other Crops 1333.02 1473.83 1568.98 1647.56 7.32%Cattle, sheep and horse 2572.52 3111.26 3653.49 4261.25 18.32%Pig and poultry 517.55 660.37 809.65 980.84 23.75%Other agriculture 572.95 693.89 825.11 982.67 19.70%
  32. 32. 4.1.2. Agricultural greenhouse gasemissions in China(2004 2020)
  33. 33. Table 5.The baseline forecast data of Chinese agricultural greenhouse gas emission (classified by sectors, carbon dioxide equivalent, millions t) The growth 2004 2010 2015 2020Sectors rateRice 260.24 261.96 256.75 245.82 -1.88%Other Crops 375.83 412.31 423.81 423.24 4.04%Cattle, sheep and 344.88 511.19 686.01 877.21 36.50%horsePig and poultry 184.75 267.12 354.13 450.99 34.65%Other agriculture 14.17 19.41 24.37 29.99 28.39%
  34. 34. 4.2Policy simulation scenario to Carbon tax on agriculture Nitrousoxide emissionsPolicy simulation scenario one: per ton of carbon dioxide equivalentemissions agriculture nitrous oxide levy 100 dollar of carbon taxIn the baseline scenario, assumed that in 2020China levy a carbon taxto agriculture greenhouse gas emission, the criterion is that per ton ofcarbon dioxide equivalent emissions agriculture nitrous oxide levy 100dollar of carbon tax. Under this condition, analyze the impact ofagriculture nitrous oxide emissions reduction on macro economic andeach department (especially the agriculture department).•
  35. 35. Policy simulation scenario two: per ton ofcarbon dioxide equivalent emissionsagriculture nitrous oxide levy 200 dollar ofcarbon taxPolicy simulation scenario three: Per ton ofcarbon dioxide equivalent emissionsagriculture Nitrous oxide levy 300 dollar ofcarbon tax
  36. 36. • 4.3 Results of policy simulation• 4.3.1 Impact on macroeconomic
  37. 37. Table 6: Compared to the baseline scenario, the macro effect of the simulation scenarioIndex The first simulation The second The third simulation simulationWelfare($1 million) 12362.78 24828.26 36723.75Trade conditions($1 -5284.90 -10657.26 -15828.53million)Actual GDP(%) 0.0034 0.0036 0.0007GDP price index (%) 0.19 0.40 0.60Export price index (%) 0.08 0.15 0.22Exports (%) -0.20 -0.39 -0.57Imports (%) 0.28 0.57 0.86Factor prices (%) (1)land -2.44 -4.91 -7.28 (2) non-skilled labor -0.04 -0.09 -0.15 (3) skilled labor 0.17 0.34 0.50 (4) capital 0.10 0.21 0.30Consumer price index 0.31 0.63 0.95
  38. 38. 4.3.2. Impact on agricultural sector Table 7: Compared to the baseline scenario, the impact on the agricultural sector of simulation scenario Price changes(%) Output changes(%) The first The second The third The first The second The third Sectors simulation simulation simulation simulation simulation simulationrice -1.64 -3.31 -4.93 -0.07 -0.15 -0.23Othercrops 2.10 4.32 6.53 -0.64 -1.29 -1.94Cattle andsheep -1.31 -2.65 -3.93 0.26 0.53 0.79Pigs andpoultry -0.90 -1.82 -2.71 0.40 0.80 1.18Otheragriculture 0.14 0.28 0.41 0.03 0.06 0.09
  39. 39. Exports changes(%) Imports changes(%) The first The second The third The first The second The third Sectors simulation simulation simulation simulation simulation simulationrice 20.93 47.24 78.62 -8.47 -16.49 -23.68Othercrops -7.87 -15.36 -22.10 2.90 5.95 9.00Cattle andsheep 5.52 11.54 17.76 -2.49 -5.01 -7.42Pigs andpoultry 2.58 5.30 8.02 -1.15 -2.32 -3.44Otheragriculture -0.31 -0.59 -0.82 0.07 0.12 0.15
  40. 40. Land rent changes(%) Labor cost changes(%) The first The The third The first The The third simulati second simulatio simulatio second simulatio Sectors on simulation n n simulation nrice 0.07 0.13 0.20 -0.47 -0.95 -1.43Othercrops -0.41 -0.83 -1.25 -1.14 -2.31 -3.46Cattleandsheep 0.36 0.74 1.11 -0.11 -0.22 -0.33Pigs andpoultry 0.49 1.00 1.49 0.05 0.10 0.14Otheragriculture 0.47 0.96 1.44 0.06 0.12 0.18
  41. 41. 4.3.3Impact on to the baseline scenario, the impact Table 8: Compared other sectors on other sectors of simulation scenario Price changes(%) output changes(%) The third The second The third The first The second sectors The first simulation simulatio simulation simulation simulation simulation nchemical 0.07 0.14 0.2 -0.08 -0.16 -0.23productsNatural gas 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.13 0.19Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0petroleum 0.04 0.08 0.11 0 0 0electricity 0.03 0.06 0.09 -0.03 -0.06 -0.1Oil products 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.09Processed 0.84 1.72 2.59 -0.12 -0.24 -0.37productscotton and 0.3 0.61 0.91 -0.68 -1.37 -2.04textile productsLight industry -0.05 -0.1 -0.15 0.21 0.44 0.65Heavy industry 0.04 0.08 0.12 -0.07 -0.14 -0.2public utilitiesand building 0.24 0.49 0.73 -0.06 -0.14 -0.21industryTransportationand 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.09 0.17 0.25communicationOther services 0.09 0.17 0.25 0.3 0.59 0.88
  42. 42. Exports changes(%) Imports changes(%) The first The second The third The first The second The third sectors simulation simulation simulation simulation simulation simulationchemical products -0.23 -0.45 -0.66 0.01 0.01 0.01Natural gas -0.13 -0.23 -0.29 0.03 0.04 0.05Coal 0.06 0.13 0.21 -0.05 -0.10 -0.16petroleum -0.11 -0.21 -0.31 0.05 0.11 0.15electricity -0.07 -0.12 -0.17 -0.06 -0.12 -0.18Oil products -0.01 -0.03 -0.04 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06Processed products -2.93 -5.88 -8.71 1.36 2.79 4.21cotton and textileproducts -0.92 -1.86 -2.77 0.37 0.75 1.12Light industry 0.41 0.83 1.25 -0.16 -0.32 -0.48Heavy industry -0.13 -0.26 -0.37 0.01 0.02 0.03public utilities andbuilding industry -0.86 -1.74 -2.59 0.57 1.17 1.75Transportation andcommunication -0.19 -0.37 -0.55 0.28 0.57 0.85Other services -0.24 -0.47 -0.69 0.31 0.61 0.90
  43. 43. Capital price changes(%) Labor cost changes(%) The first The The third The first The The third sectors simulatio second simulatio simulatio second simulation n simulation n n simulationchemical products -0.13 -0.26 -0.38 -0.24 -0.49 -0.38Natural gas 0.06 0.13 0.19 -0.03 -0.06 0.19Coal -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.07 -0.03petroleum -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.06 -0.02electricity -0.07 -0.14 -0.21 -0.21 -0.42 -0.21Oil products 0.03 0.06 0.09 -0.15 -0.29 0.09Processed products -0.17 -0.35 -0.53 -0.25 -0.51 -0.53cotton and textile -0.74 -1.51 -2.25 -0.84 -1.7 -2.25productsLight industry 0.15 0.31 0.46 0.06 0.12 0.46Heavy industry -0.13 -0.26 -0.37 -0.23 -0.46 -0.37public utilities and -0.15 -0.31 -0.47 -0.25 -0.5 -0.47building industryTransportation and 0.02 0.05 0.07 -0.11 -0.22 0.07communicationOther services 0.27 0.54 0.8 0.18 0.36 0.8
  44. 44. 4.3.4 Influence on trade balance Table 9: Compared to the baseline scenario, the impact on trade balance of simulation scenario (1 million dollars)Trade balance change(1million dollars) The first simulation The second simulation The third simulationRice 5.4 10.64 15.5Other crops -2526.63 -5193.64 -7859.89Cattle and sheep 40.62 81.63 120.83Pigs and poultry 105.52 213.37 317.72Other agriculture -92.44 -175.61 -244.76chemical products -164.22 -322.41 -466.37Natural gas -0.01 -0.01 -0.02Coal 4.51 9.41 14.45Petroleum -67.94 -134.92 -197.27Electricity 0.18 0.4 0.66Oil products -0.97 -1.23 -0.73Processed products -487.29 -992.51 -1488.53cotton and textile -1697.69 -3446.39 -5151.78productsLight industry 1010.45 2064.49 3105.39Heavy industry -1007.96 -1955.65 -2790.64public utilities and -29.82 -60.5 -90.39building industryTransportation and -233.15 -467.92 -691.59communicationOther services -143.46 -286.42 -421.1
  45. 45. 4.3.5The influence on the welfare of the other countriesTable 10:Compared to the baseline scenario, countries welfare change in the three simulationswelfare change(1 million The seconddollars) The first simulation simulation The third simulationthe Pacific region 36.32 75.15 114.43Japan -243.69 -489.95 -725.57the United States -25.93 -29.07 -8.65India -40.67 -82.29 -122.63Energy exporter -110.94 -224.81 -335.54East Asia -58.06 -115.7 -169.87Southeast Asia -25.48 -50.54 -73.84South Asia -17.21 -35.28 -53.29North America 25.74 54.56 84.98Latin America 129.75 269.3 411.36the European Union -525.15 -1049.55 -1544.88the Middle East and North -36.57 -74.45 -111.62Africa, -5.12 -9.23 -12.08sub-Saharan Africaother countries 8.59 17.34 25.74
  46. 46. 5.Conclusions and SuggestionsThe results showed that levy on agricultural Nitrous oxideemission has changed Chinas export-oriented internationaltrade model and increased the Chinese social welfare. Thespecific performance is real GDP increase, GDP priceindex, export price index and consumer price index rise.The price of land and unskilled labor declined, whereas theprice of capital and skilled labor are on the rise trend.
  47. 47. Levy on agricultural Nitrous oxide emission, rice production department andother planting sectors suffered the bigger negative influence, and the animalhusbandry department suffered less.levy on agricultural Nitrous oxide emission makes Product price of Theindustrial sector and Service sector increase, thus inhibiting exports andexpand imports. capital and labor price in Most industrial and service sectordecline.Which led Most of domestic sectoral trade are in unbalanced, including othercrops, chemical products, natural gas, processed food, cotton products, heavyindustry, utilities and construction, transportation and communication, otherservices and other agriculture, oil and oil products.Welfare of most of the countries around the world reduced, which include Sub-Saharan Africa, the European Union, the Middle East and North Africa, energyexporter, East Asia, Southeast Asia, Japan and the United States.
  48. 48. So it seems that levy on agricultural Nitrous oxide emission will increaseChinas welfare, change the international trade situation, making most ofthe production department lose international trade balances and thewelfare of the developing countries and some developed countriesintend to decline, overall is on Chinas economic benefit.
  49. 49. thanks

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