Mercati globali ed economie emergenti - relazione di Jayati Ghosh


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La relazione di Jayati Ghosh, Professor Centre for Economic Studies and Planning, School of Social Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University di New Delhi.

La presentazione prende le mosse dalla situazione economica nei Paesi in via di sviluppo, dove stiamo assistendo a una riduzione dei flussi di capitali. Le uniche eccezioni sono l’Africa e la Cina.
Nel medio termine tutti i Paesi emergenti trarranno vantaggi dalla vastità della loro popolazione e dei loro mercati interni. È auspicabile poter contare su mercati finanziari stabili e allargati a tutti, per introdurre politiche nuove (sociali, industriali, fiscali), investire in infrastrutture e in tecnologie sostenibili.

Per quanto riguarda l’IT, le notizie sono confortanti: smartphone e tablet sono molto diffusi nel mondo, anche ne villaggi più remoti, e tutti li sanno usare.

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Mercati globali ed economie emergenti - relazione di Jayati Ghosh

  1. 1. Global markets and emerging economies Jayati Ghosh Jawaharlal Nehru University SAP Executive Summit on The Networked Economy 14-15 March 2014, Villa d’Este, Cernobbio Italy
  2. 2. Global output is still synchronised, not decoupled 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2007-10 2011 2012 2013 2014 Output growth rates World Developed economies Transition economies Developing economies
  3. 3. Important emerging markets are clearly decelerating in the short term 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2007-10 2011 2012 2013 2014 Output growth rates China Russia Brazil India South Africa
  4. 4. Short run risks for emerging economies Possibility of “disorderly adjustment” (which could even lead in some cases to exchange rate or balance of payments crises) to the tightening of monetary policy in the US and Europe. Internal financial concerns, such as currency and maturity mismatches in external borrowing and domestic financial bubbles, and fear of financial instability. Volatility in global markets for food, fuel and currencies because of the unpredictable role of financial investors. Export markets will be increasingly constrained, also because of the effects of China’s rebalancing away from investment and exports to domestic consumption.
  5. 5. Capital flows have turned negative
  6. 6. Commodity prices are falling but still potentially volatile 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 Index of world trade prices, 2000=100 Crude petroleum Food Agricultural raw materials Minerals and metals Manufactured exports
  7. 7. Much more merchandise trade is South-South, while North-North is declining in importance
  8. 8. Imports are decelerating except in East Asia and Africa
  9. 9. Southern imports will depend on financing Several developing countries (including large emerging markets) are already facing balance of payments constraints. Stable financing for development is essential. China has already been playing a growing role in this through export credits and aid, loans and foreign direct investment. Role of regional banks should become more prominent.
  10. 10. The impact of China’s rebalancing China has become the most significant trade partner for most developing nations. Already signs of the start of a shift at the margin in China, away from investment and net exports towards household consumption. This will affect China’s imports, especially iron ore, copper and machinery and electrical goods and parts. But continued urbanization and infrastructure development in China will make this change relatively slow. China’s trading partners will need to change their export composition to cater to the new patterns of demand from China.
  11. 11. Change in China’s import composition
  12. 12. Services have become much more significant
  13. 13. Developing countries are now more important in world services trade
  14. 14. Most developing countries still have services trade deficits 4,4 3,2 2,8 1,4 2,5 1,1 6,8 3,1 1,4 2,6 2,6 1,3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 China India HongKong SAR Russia South Korea Thailand Share of world trade in services in 2012 (%) Exports Imports
  15. 15. Service export growth continues to be strong
  16. 16. Medium term economic prospects are strong Demographic advantage, with more young people and increasing levels of education Large internal markets, both actual and potential Massive infrastructure requirements still to be met, especially in transport, energy and water Need for new green technologies in future economic expansion, changing investment, production and consumption patterns Requirement for expansion of social services to ensure universal access, which in turn will require large investments
  17. 17. The huge potential for ICT in certain growing services Health services Education Banking Translation Safety measures Maintenance and repair
  18. 18. Lessons from recent growth and slowdown in emerging markets Inequality has emerged as a major social and political concern, and is now also economically dysfunctional. Natural resource extraction needs to be handled equitably and sustainably- otherwise backlash will impede future growth. Public investment in infrastructure is still key to growth Promoting asset bubbles is a short-lived strategy that can end in tears Financial markets need to be widened (more financial inclusion especially of SMEs) but not necessarily deepened (pyramiding) – so different kinds of regulation are required.
  19. 19. What does growth in emerging economies require from the global system? Multilateral and regional trade and investment regimes that preserve some policy space, particularly for ensuring food security, fiscal policy, industrial policy and promoting innovation. Stability of global financial markets, and in commodity markets that are affected by financial investors. International macro policy co-ordination to ensure genuine and sustained recovery.
  20. 20. Thanks for your attention!