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San Diego Coastal Market Alert March 2012

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San Diego Coastal Market Alert March 2012

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San Diego Coastal Market Alert March 2012

  1. 1. FEBRUARY/MARCH 2012 Ryan Mathys & Tracie Kersten Inside This Issue ProFund Financial & Real Estate 7777 Fay Avenue, Suite G4 > LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 La Jolla, CA 92037 > MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 (858) 405-4004 > HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 ryan@profundrealestate.com http://www.profundrealestate.com > FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 CA DRE #01361941 > CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 > CHARTS: SP/LP & SALES YTD .......... 4The Real Estate Report local market trends Trends at a Glance (Single-family Homes) Jan 12 Dec 11 Jan 11 NORTH COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY Median Price: $ 335,000 $ 345,500 $ 355,000 Av erage Price: $ 440,360 $ 451,054 $ 448,190 Home Sales: 1,440 1,974 1,244Mortgage Debt Relief Act to Expire Pending Sales: 3,389 3,084 3,016 Inv entory : 8,175 7,850 9,754Once upon a time, when a homeowner did a short If you’ve been considering a short sale, it’s time to (Condos/Town Homes)sale, the IRS counted the difference between what get off the stick. Short sales are notorious for taking Median Price: $ 205,000 $ 205,000 $ 215,650the bank took and what the homeowner owed as a long time, like six months or more. Av erage Price: $ 256,570 $ 259,943 $ 238,369income. Not much incentive there. Condo Sales: 634 891 713 If you are upside down and are having problems Pending Sales: 1,447 1,339 1,558In 2007, the federal government enacted the making your payments, it’s time to do something. Inv entory : 3,546 3,460 4,900MDRA that allows qualified taxpayers to exclude It’s going to take a long time before an upsidethat “income”. down property becomes positive. Condo inventory was down 28% year-over-year.The law will end December 31st. MARKET STATISTICS Pending home sales grew by 12.4% year-over-You must close the short sale by then. Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up year. That’s fourteen months in a row pending 15.8% year-over-year in January. This is the sev- sales have been higher than the year before.Other qualifications include: enth month in a row home sales have been higher than the year before. Pending condo sales were down 16.4% year-over-• Good for up to $2,000,000 in forgiven debt year. Condo sales were down 6.1% year-over-year.• Only works for principal homes Sales momentum moved into positive territory in The median price for homes was down 5.6% year- January for the first time since August 2010: 0.4.• The tax rule can be applied to debt used to over-year. This is the twelfth month in a row the Pricing momentum continues to deteriorate and is refinance your home, provided the principal median price has been lower than the year before. now at –5.1. Pricing momentum has been negative balance of the old mortgage, immediately The median price for condos rose 1.5% year-over- since July 2011. before the refinancing, would have qualified. year. Please remember, while statistics are nice, they willSee “The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act Inventory of both homes and condos continues to not determine the price you pay or get for a proper-and Debt Cancellation” for additional information. be weak. Home inventory was down 16.1% com- ty. That will come down to you and the buyer orUse this link: http://tinyurl.com/5pe43f . pared to last January. seller. San Diego County Homes: Sales Momentum 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0-10.0 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 7 8 9 0 1 2-20.0-30.0-40.0-50.0 Sales Pendings Median © 2012 rereport.com Ryan Mathys & Tracie Kersten | ryan@profundrealestate.com | (858) 405-4004
  2. 2. The Real Estate Report Mortgage Rate Outlook30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Feb. 3, 2012 -- Expectations for a continuing period 15-year companion shed nine basis points of weak economic growth continue to be con- (.09%) to finish the weekly survey at an average01-1210-11 founded by stronger economic data. A flare 3.46%, also a new bottom. Important to home-07-11 higher in rates last week -- fostered by that buyers and low-equity-stake refinancers, FHA-04-11 warmer data -- was cut off at the knees by soft- backed 30-year mortgages declined by just01-11 er-than-expected fourth quarter GDP growth and three hundredths of a percentage point to10-1007-10 a Federal Reserve who not only moved their 3.84%, while the overall average for 5/1 Hybrid04-10 expectations of increasing interest rates further ARMs decreased by seven basis points to crack01-10 down the road, but also increased expectations the 3% mark and end the week at 2.99%. Con-10-0907-09 that more mortgage or bond-buying programs forming 30-year FRMs matched their previous04-09 might come in 2012. low of 4.01%, but jumbo 30-year FRMs marched01-09 into new record low territory with an eleven ba-10-08 While weaker growth may yet emerge, whether sis point drop to 4.49%.07-08 from deepening troubles in the Eurozone or04-08 some yet-unseen issue, the fact is that the econ- We expect to see mortgage rates rise a little01-0810-07 omy is showing signs of increasing expansion, next week. The better economic tenor this week07-07 at least for the moment. Certain of the interest (especially the ISM service and employment04-07 rates which mortgages track moved measurably reports on Friday) pulled money out of bonds01-0710-06 higher on Friday, with the 10-year Treasury fin- and into stocks, as safe-haven funds seek some07-06 ishing the week well above the weeks low. opportunity for better gains. Figure on a rise of04-06 4-5 basis points, perhaps.01-06 HSH.coms broad-market mortgage tracker -- 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages declined by tenThe chart above shows the Nation- basis points (.10%) from last week, sliding to anal monthly average for 30-year average 4.18%, a new record low. The FRMIsfixed rate mortgages as compiledby HSH.com. The average includes San Diego County — Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Salesmortgages of all sizes, including (3-month moving average — price in $000s)conforming, "expanded conform- $800 2,500ing," and jumbo. $700 2,000 $600 $500 1,500 $400 1,000 $300 500 $200 $100 0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 7 8 9 0 1 2 Ave Med Sales © 2012 rereport.com North San Diego County Coastal - January 2012 SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES % Change from Year Before Prices Prices Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend Inven County $ 335,000 $ 440,360 1,440 3,389 8,175 170 96.6% -5.6% -1.7% 15.8% 12.4% -16.2% N. County Coast $ 400,000 $ 680,403 308 813 2,284 222 96.3% -22.6% 1.3% 7.7% 21.0% -14.0% Cardiff by the Sea $ 645,000 $ 619,300 5 9 34 150 97.1% -11.0% -16.9% 25.0% 12.5% -15.0% Carlsbad $ 570,000 $ 606,048 52 117 441 187 96.6% -12.3% -10.4% -3.7% -0.8% 32.8% Carmel Valley $ 779,750 $ 816,383 18 56 190 223 94.7% -17.5% -13.5% -21.7% 21.7% 11.1% Del Mar $ 2,280,000 $ 2,391,900 7 30 130 429 95.6% 78.8% 34.2% 40.0% 25.0% 0.0% Encinitas $ 840,000 $ 1,094,370 21 60 220 229 95.4% 1.9% 26.0% 0.0% 50.0% 20.9% Fallbrook $ 287,500 $ 340,888 26 102 377 317 97.5% -13.4% -11.2% -39.5% 34.2% 15.6% La Jolla $ 1,413,180 $ 1,448,600 14 55 236 388 88.9% 6.7% 0.5% -17.6% 77.4% 7.3% Oceanside $ 306,000 $ 303,105 86 201 729 184 97.4% -8.5% -7.6% 22.9% 21.1% 23.6% Rancho Santa Fe $ 2,475,000 $ 2,793,670 15 28 236 416 91.8% 61.8% 47.2% 15.4% -20.0% -2.9% San Marcos $ 288,250 $ 299,444 68 137 467 146 96.5% -20.5% -10.8% 36.0% 21.2% 26.6% Solana Beach $ 880,000 $ 970,833 6 12 49 185 94.9% -7.4% -8.1% 50.0% 50.0% 14.0%Page 2 Vista $ 295,000 $ 303,323 58 143 455 161 97.8% -3.4% -10.7% 81.3% 19.2% 20.1%
  3. 3. San Diego County Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Price Change30.0%20.0%10.0% 0.0% 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2-20.0%-30.0%-40.0% © 2010 rereport.comFORECLOSURE STATISTICSNotices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, In December, cancellations were down 17.7% fromin San Diego County declined 18.7% in December from the November, and were down 1.3% year-over-year.year before, and were down 24% from November. Properties going back to the bank were down 0.4% fromNotices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, November, and were down 8.4% compared to Decemberand serve as the homeowners final notice before sale, 2010.jumped 14.2% from November, but were down 14.8% year- The total number of properties that have had a notice ofover-year. default filed declined by 25% in December compared toAfter the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only December 2010.three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled The total number of properties scheduled for sale declined byfor reasons that include a successful loan modification or 33.1%, year-over-year. Both of these are very positive signs.short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file thenotice after extended postponements. The total number of properties owned by banks dropped by 13.9% year-over-year.Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank willplace the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, Foreclosure statistics provided by:bids more than the banks opening bid, the property will be http://foreclosureradar.com.sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank andbecome part of that banks REO inventory.San Diego County — Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — price in $000s) Table Definitions Table Definitions$500 1,500 _______________ _______________$400 Median Price Median Price 1,000 The price at which 50% of prices The price at which 50% of prices were higher and 50%were lower. were higher and 50%were lower.$300 500 Average Price Average Price$200 Add all prices and divide by the Add all prices and divide by the number of sales. number of sales.$100 0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 7 8 9 0 1 2 SP/LP SP/LP Sales price to list price ratio or the Sales price to list price ratio or the Ave Med Sales © 2012 rereport.com price paid for the property divided by price paid for the property divided North San Diego County Coastal - January 2012 the asking price. by the asking price.CONDOS % Change from Year Before Prices Prices DOI DOI Days of Inventory, or how many Days of Inventory, or how many Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend Inven days it would take to sell all the days it would take to sell all the County $ 205,000 $ 256,570 634 1,447 3,546 168 97.4% 1.5% 3.0% -6.1% -16.4% -28.0% property for sale at the current rate property for sale at the current rate N. County Coast $ 255,000 $ 310,882 148 314 865 175 97.1% -9.7% -3.9% 13.8% -12.0% -20.7% of sales. of sales.Cardiff by the Sea $ 360,000 $ 360,000 1 6 24 540 93.5% -17.7% -17.7% -50.0% 0.0% 71.4% Carlsbad $ 289,950 $ 300,299 36 63 229 138 98.0% -17.5% -11.6% 125.0% 21.2% 18.0% Carmel Valley $ 385,000 $ 384,888 16 25 91 124 98.7% 1.9% 3.2% 23.1% -10.7% 7.1% Pend Pend Del Mar $ 372,000 $ 499,500 5 6 41 210 95.7% -8.7% 15.0% 0.0% -40.0% -16.3% Property under contract to sell that Property under contract to sell that Encinitas $ 248,000 $ 330,333 9 28 91 210 96.0% -20.0% -20.4% 0.0% -9.7% 46.8% hasn’t closed escrow. hasn’t closed escrow. La Jolla $ 520,000 $ 581,318 11 40 197 428 94.8% -11.6% -0.4% -21.4% 11.1% 4.8% Oceanside $ 157,250 $ 203,239 54 103 341 132 97.1% -14.4% 4.8% -6.9% 1.0% -0.9% Inven InvenRancho Santa Fe $ 650,000 $ 650,000 1 4 15 330 97.9% -1.7% -1.7% 0.0% 200.0% 63.6% Page 3 Number of properties actively for Number of properties actively for San Marcos $ 230,000 $ 221,617 29 50 143 96 97.9% 0.4% -3.5% 20.8% 8.7% 0.0% sale sale as oflast day of the month. as of the the last day of the Solana Beach $ 512,500 $ 513,112 8 17 65 180 96.3% -10.1% -10.0% 300.0% 21.4% 41.3% month. Vista $ 153,000 $ 150,360 5 19 73 324 97.2% -13.1% -18.1% -61.5% -34.5% 19.7% Page 3
  4. 4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT N. Coast San Diego County Ryan Mathys & Tracie Kersten ProFund Financial & Real Estate 7777 Fay Avenue, Suite G4 La Jolla, CA 92037For a FREE subscription and the city by city break-down, go to our web-site at:http://www.profundrealestate.com San Diego County: Single-family Homes Sales Price/Listing Price Ratio 101% 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 0FMAMJJASOND0FMAMJJASOND0FMAMJJASOND1FMAMJJASOND1FMAMJJASOND1 7 8 9 0 1 2 © 2012 rereport.com San Diego County Homes - Sales, Pending & Days of Inventory (3-month moving average) 4,000 600 3,500 500 Days of Inventory Sales & Pending 3,000 2,500 400 2,000 300 1,500 200 1,000 500 100 0 0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJJASOND1 FMAMJJASOND1 FMAMJJASOND1 7 8 9 0 1 2 © 2012 rereport.com This Real Estate Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com. Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied or given. The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.

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