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Mobilizing Citizen Engineers to Impact Complex Systems - RallyforImpact

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Mobilizing Citizen Engineering to impact Complex Systems at EWB2013 Canada

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Mobilizing Citizen Engineers to Impact Complex Systems - RallyforImpact

  1. 1. Mobilizing Citizen Engineers to Impact Complex Systems 2013 Conference CalgaryRyan Martens – Rally Software
  2. 2. Ryan@rallydev.com@RallyOn#RallyforImpact
  3. 3. Finding: My Good Work 1985 2002 2009 2011 2012
  4. 4. Factor of Four
  5. 5. Technology and Entrepreneurship for the Developing World – EN4830 Learning Objectives: 1. Understand importance, feasibility and complexity of facilitating wealth generation for the developing world 2. Learn how engineering and entrepreneurship influence development and appropriate technologies 3. Enhance your team work skills by presenting 3 times during the Seth Murray – ME semester on your business model Instructor at theUniversity of Colorado and plan
  6. 6. Need Citizen Engineers to deliver impact in complex world
  7. 7. 13/01/2013 11
  8. 8. 2007 2005 National Snow and Ice Data Center – University of Colorado, Boulder http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html
  9. 9. Act like an Agilist Frame & EmpathizeLearn & Build & Ship Share Test & Measure
  10. 10. 13/01/2013 17
  11. 11. 1.0 2.0 3.0Take – Make - Waste Sustainable Restorative Resource WasteOpen Loop, Closed Loop Generative,World of Constraints World of Plenty
  12. 12. 1.0 2.0 3.0Externalities & Aid Social Enterprise Natural Capitalism Resource WasteOpen Loop, Closed Loop Generative,World of Constraints World of Plenty
  13. 13. http://www.flickr.com/photos/virtualeyesee/6107062655
  14. 14. 1. Understand the context2. Learn in fast cycles3. Do it to yourselves?
  15. 15. Engineer with Complexity
  16. 16. What we are taught
  17. 17. Problem Space Defined Water Problem Solution Space Option Feasible Effective 1 2 3
  18. 18. Systems Engineering
  19. 19. What we assume
  20. 20. Gaussian distributionshttp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0412004
  21. 21. Gaussian distributionshttp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0412004 http://www.flickr.com/photos/danielmorrison/428130095
  22. 22. What surprises us
  23. 23. Probabilities
  24. 24. 80 / 20
  25. 25. Power laws and Pareto distributionshttp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0412004
  26. 26. Other Pareto distributionshttp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0412004
  27. 27. Low probabilityevents have higher impact
  28. 28. Plausible
  29. 29. An example
  30. 30. 8’1’’ 2’5’’ 3.3 xhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howaboutthat/6988398/The-worlds-tallest-man-Sultan-Kosen-and-the-shortest-man-in-the-world-He-Pingping-meet.html
  31. 31. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/4368494308
  32. 32. Bill Gates TheEntire 650 xRoom
  33. 33. 99.8 / 1
  34. 34. Citizen Engineering involves many Pareto distributions
  35. 35. How do we make sense of this?
  36. 36. Plausible ProbableUnordered Ordered
  37. 37. Plausible ProbableUnordered Ordered
  38. 38. Plausible ProbableUnordered Ordered
  39. 39. Plausible Probable E l eE c e x o x u p r e tUnordered Ordered
  40. 40. Plausible Probable Natural/S Mechanical ocial Systems SystemsUnordered Ordered
  41. 41. A little more to this at scale
  42. 42. Plausible ProbableUnordered Ordered
  43. 43. Plausible Probable Chaotic Complex Complicated SimpleUnordered Ordered
  44. 44. Plausible Probable Complex Complicated Chaotic SimpleUnordered Ordered
  45. 45. Plausible Probable Complex Complicated Chaotic SimpleUnordered Ordered
  46. 46. The Cynefin Framework Complex Complicated Cause & Effect is only Cause & Effect is not apparent in retrospect, obvious, understood and not repeatable through analysis and is repeatable Disorder Cause & Effect is Cause & Effect is not obvious to all and is perceivable repeatable Chaotic SimpleUnordered Ordered
  47. 47. How about an example?
  48. 48. Music Industry in 2000 - Napster Complex Complicated Independent musicians Managing a large tour self publishing online Disorder Managing a NIN tour Major label online distribution CD distribution Chaotic SimpleUnordered Ordered
  49. 49. Taking action
  50. 50. Existing Solution & CommunityComplex Complicated DisorderChaotic Simple
  51. 51. New Solution or CommunityComplex Complicated DisorderChaotic Simple
  52. 52. Uncertaintymakes it difficult to “Heads-Down” Engineer
  53. 53. How do we act?See Cynefin online at Cognitive Edge - http://cognitive-edge.com/
  54. 54. How do we deal with this?
  55. 55. ComplexityInformed Approach
  56. 56. Problem Space Un-Defined Sustainability CapacitySolution Health/Water Space
  57. 57. Act like an Agilist (aka - DisciplinedExplorer and Executer)
  58. 58. Our ApproachAssemble these ingredients: Agile Customer DesignExecution Development Thinking Complexity Lean InnovationThinking Management
  59. 59. Agile
  60. 60. NOT Agile
  61. 61. Approach
  62. 62. Agile Method Releases 1-4 Months Iterations 1-4 Weeks Daily Meetings Incremental Delivery of Customer ValueProduct Release ProductBacklog Backlog Increment 71
  63. 63. Optimization Manufacture Product Payoff Develop Payoff GainGain Loss TargetLoss Target © 2009 Product Development Flow –Don Reinertsen – fig 4-10
  64. 64. Utilization Conform to PlanVariability Phases & Gates
  65. 65. TRADITIONAL AGILEDEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENTPlan Driven Value DrivenFixed Scope Variable ScopeVariable Resources Fixed ResourcesVariable Time Fixed Time
  66. 66. Fixed Scope Resources Time Value Driven Plan Driven Resources Time Scope Variable
  67. 67. Fixed Quality Value Value Driven Plan Driven Constraints Variable
  68. 68. Cycle Time Lifecycle Profit Innovation Speed 
  69. 69. Results • 3X better throughputfrom a • went from 40% on-time to 92% on time • projects delivered under budgetFortune • multiple first-to-market initiatives100 • reduced bug backlog by almost 90% • removed 180,000 hours of productive waste in one quarter
  70. 70. Agile = Build it RightAgile = Mindset Change
  71. 71. CustomerDevelopment (FROM LEAN STARTUP)
  72. 72. OhAlpha Beta Ship Crap!
  73. 73. CustomerDevelopment =Build the Right Thing
  74. 74. Innovation Management Approach Vision & Empathy Culture Business Model Frame Frame Frame Frame Build & Ship Build & Ship Build & Ship Build & ShipLearn Learn Learn Learn Test & Measure Test & Measure Test & Measure Test & Measure
  75. 75. Artful MakingLee Devin andRob Austin
  76. 76. Explore Execute http://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-startup-owners-manual-sxsw-11954724
  77. 77. http://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-startup-owners-manual-sxsw-11954724
  78. 78. http://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-startup-owners-manual-sxsw-11954724
  79. 79. http://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-startup-owners-manual-sxsw-11954724
  80. 80. Design Thinking
  81. 81. Design Thinking = Frame the Right Problem
  82. 82. ?
  83. 83. Exploring with Discipline
  84. 84. Turn Guesses Frame Build & Ship Learn Test & Measure Into Knowledge
  85. 85. “The only valid model of a complex system is the system itself. Murray Gell-Mann
  86. 86. First big Guess:We understand the problem a customer wants solved
  87. 87. “Customers don’t care about your solution. They care about their problems. Dave McClure
  88. 88. Next guess:Our product solves the customer’s problem
  89. 89. Experiment Name:Background: What do you want to learn and why? Owner: Mentor: Date: Measures What will you measure t o invalidat e your hypot hesis? What will you measure t o indicat e t he experiment is safe t o run? What will you measure t o indicat e you should amplif y t he experiment ? Measures can be Qualit at ive and Quant it at ive.Frame t he Experiment: What is your Problem Statement?Writ e t he Problem St at ement from t he Define worksheet here. What pain or pr oblem is being experienced?[Cust omer Segment ] needs a way t o [describe job t o be done], (because|but |surprisingly ) [describe insight ]. Experiment Backlog St ack ranked list of act ions needed t o run t he experiment .Hypot hesis t o Test[Specif ic repeat able act ion] will creat e [expect ed result ].Is t his hypot hesis falsifiable?Experiment DetailsDescribe t he experiment you plan t o run and how you are going t o at t empt t o falsify your hypot hesis. Experiment Result s and Learnings Describe what you learned fr om t he experiment ? Did you invalidat e your hypot hesis or does it live on?Safety: How is t he experiment safe to run and how will you recover? Next Steps: Given what you learned, what ’s next ?Describe how t he experiment is safe t o run.Describe how you will r ecover from running t he experiment upon complet ion or if you discover it isn’t safe t o run. I-2
  90. 90. Testing your low fidelity MVP
  91. 91. How about an example?
  92. 92. PIVOT orPERSEVERE http://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-startup-owners-manual-sxsw-11954724
  93. 93. Act like an Agilist Frame & EmpathizeLearn & Build & Ship Share Test & Measure
  94. 94. Our ToolsInnovation Empathy Needs Lean Portfolio Interviewee Name: Say Map Capt ure specif ic quot es from t he user, as well as any unusual phr ases or words t hat st ruck you as somet hing t hat migh t cont ain a deeper meaning. Prompt ing Quest ion: Empat hize Date: Think Capt ure phrases t hat begin wit h " I t hink... " or " I believe..." t hat were specif ically st at ed by t he user. You might also capt ure ot her t hought s & beliefs t hat may not have been explicit ly st at ed but can be inferred from what t he user said. Definition Team: User Enumerat e descript ions of possible users and t heir emot ions. Needs, Goals, and Wishes Enumerat e t he needs of t hose users and t he t hings t hey are t rying t o achieve. Define Insights Date: Enumerat e t he insight s you gained by reframing how you t hink about t he us ers and t heir needs, goals and wishes. What is somet hing you see about your user ’s experience t hat maybe s/ he doesn’t see? (Make inferences) Canvas Implicit – What people t hink and feel Explicit – What people say and do Possible Point s of View Pick: t he most meaningful, emot ional st at ement of user; t he most provocat ive need; and t he mo st provocat ive insight . Hang t hem t oget her and see if you have an int erest ing pr oblem st at ement . Experiment wit h at least four of t hem below. needs a way to because | but ... | surprisingly ... User or Persona’s name wit h emot ion User or Persona’s need/ goal/ wish (circle one) Insight needs a way to because | but ... | surprisingly ... User or Persona’s name wit h emot ion User or Persona’s need/ goal/ wish (circle one) Insight needs a way to because | but ... | surprisingly ... User or Persona’s name wit h emot ion User or Persona’s need/ goal/ wish (circle one) Insight needs a way to because | but ... | surprisingly ... User or Persona’s name wit h emot ion User or Persona’s need/ goal/ wish (circle one) Insight Problem Statement Pick t he st rongest Point of View from above and cr aft t he Pr oblem St at ement below. Do Feel needs a way to because | but ... | surprisingly ... Capt ure t hings you saw t he user (or group of users) doing. Capt ure feelings and emot ions t hat t he us er displayed or t alked about having. You might also User or Persona’s name wit h emot ion User or Persona’s need/ goal/ wish (circle one) Insight Writ ing down specif ic det ails or even drawing out diagr ams can be useful here. capt ure ot her f eelings & emot ions t hat y ou infer from act ions & behaviors t hat you observed. Based on work from ht t p:/ / dschool.st anford.edu/ groups/ k12/ Based on work from ht t p:/ / dschool.st anford.edu/ groups/ k12/ Problem Experiment ExperimentValidation Design Background: What do you want to learn and why? Experiment Name: Owner: Mentor: Date: Tracking Measures What will you measure t o invalidat e your hypot hesis? What will you measure t o indicat e t he experiment is safe t o run? What will you measure t o indicat e you should amplif y t he experiment ? Measures can be Qualit at ive and Quant it at ive. Frame t he Experiment: What is your Problem Statement? Writ e t he Problem St at ement from t he Define worksheet here. What pain or pr oblem is being experienced? [Cust omer Segment ] needs a way t o [describe job t o be done], (because|but |surprisingly ) [describe insight ]. Experiment Backlog St ack ranked list of act ions needed t o run t he experiment . Hypot hesis t o Test [Specif ic repeat able act ion] will creat e [expect ed result ]. Is t his hypot hesis falsifiable? Experiment Details Describe t he experiment you plan t o run and how you are going t o at t empt t o falsify your hypot hesis. Experiment Result s and Learnings Describe what you learned fr om t he experiment ? Did you invalidat e your hypot hesis or does it live on? Safety: How is t he experiment safe to run and how will you recover? Next Steps: Given what you learned, what ’s next ? Describe how t he experiment is safe t o run. Describe how you will r ecover from running t he experiment upon complet ion or if you discover it isn’t safe t o run. I-2
  95. 95. Create Citizen Engineers
  96. 96. Responsible Engineering • Technically • Environmentally • Socially
  97. 97. How about an example?
  98. 98. Trisha CompassDay 1 Response
  99. 99. Mouhsine Serrar Prakti Design
  100. 100. FeasibleSustain Effectiv -able e Desirable
  101. 101. The Pill to Create Citizen Engineers
  102. 102. Supplements to create Citizen Engineers SocialEngineers Entrepreneurs Need ability to Need to be a apply disciplined & appropriateethical explorer technologies http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/7315274972/sizes/m/in/photostream/
  103. 103. Plausible Probable Natural/S Mechanical ocial Systems SystemsUnordered Ordered
  104. 104. Probe Sense RespondComplex Complicated DisorderChaotic Simple
  105. 105. An Agile EWB Process? PIVOT ? Solution• Guess • Delivery• Guess • Validated Knowledge • MVP Problem Execution
  106. 106. An Agile EWB Project? Problem & Solution Validation On- Site I-1 I-2 I-3 Solution Prototype,Installation & Tailoring On- On- Site Site I-1 I-2
  107. 107. Discover Problem SpaceSustainability Capacity/Education Water/Health
  108. 108. What Solution Space?Create Citizen Engineers in Country“Design With” as a CitizenEngineer Successful Projects in Country
  109. 109. 1. Find Empathy2. Run Fast Cycles3. Probe to turn Guesses into Knowledge4. Capture Micro- Narratives & reflect
  110. 110. Visit: Rally for Impact
  111. 111. Share: Your Experience
  112. 112. “Do what you lovein service to thosewho love what youdo”– Steve Farber – Extreme Management
  113. 113. Primary books that informed this talk
  114. 114. People who informed this talk David Lee Kembel DonSnowden Devin Brothers Reinertsen Eric Ries Dave Bernard SteveDouglas Amadei Blank
  115. 115. @RallyOn#RallyforImpact

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