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Focus on Rural Ontario - Ray Bollman presentation to OEMC

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In this presentation, Ray Bollman explores the demographic trends of rural Ontario.

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Focus on Rural Ontario - Ray Bollman presentation to OEMC

  1. 1. 1 Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Presentation to the session on Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks Ontario East Municipal Conference September 10, 2014 Kingston Ray D. Bollman RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan
  2. 2. The demographic trends of rural Ontario •Conclusions •Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees •Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013 •Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013 •But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013 •Regarding employment trends •Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003 •In Eastern Ontario, employment in: • the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and • Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September, 2005 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 2
  3. 3. Rural Development is getting harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario • Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees • Components of population change: – Natural Balance (births minus deaths) – Voting with your feet – Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or – International immigration RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 3 Generally, migration is the largest component of population change across non-metro Ontario
  4. 4. Potential labour market shortage (regardless of projection scenario) up to 2025 due to less than 100 (potential) labour market entrants per 100 (potential) labour market retirees, ONTARIO Potential entrants to the labour force (10 to 19 years of age) as a percent of potential exiters from the labour force (55 to 64 years of age) RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 4 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 Historical data L: Low growth Medium1 1981- 2008 trends Medium2 2006- 2008 trends Medium3 1988- 1996 trends Medium4 2001- 2006 trends High growth A1 replacement fertility A2 zero immigration A3 1% immigration Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates and Projections, CANSIM Tables 051-0001 and 052-0005.
  5. 5. Demographic replacement of working age population fell below 100% in 2009, non-metro Ontario Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age) as a percent of number of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age) RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 5 250 200 150 100 50 0 Metro Non-metro 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 * Reclassification is not an issue in this time series. These data have been tabulated within the 2006 boundaries of metro and non-metro. Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0001 and 051-0046.
  6. 6. Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario ranked by demographic replacement of working age population, 2013 Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age) as a percent of the number of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age) Ottawa 95 Prescott & Russell 86 Frontenac 79 Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry 78 Hastings 77 Renfrew 75 Lennox & Addington 74 Leeds & Grenville 71 Lanark 70 Peterborough 69 Northumberland 67 Kawartha Lakes 65 Prince Edward 54 Haliburton 41 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 951-0062. RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 6
  7. 7. Rural Development is getting harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario • Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees • This implies labour market growth only from: • Net in-migration from elsewhere in Canada; or • International immigration RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 7
  8. 8. The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario • Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees • First, trends in total population • Then, components of population change: – Natural Balance (births minus deaths) – Voting with your feet – Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or – International immigration RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 8
  9. 9. Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario ranked by percent change in total population from 2012 to 2013 1996 to 1997 1997 to 1998 1998 to 1999 Percent change in total population 1999 to 2000 2000 to 2001 2001 to 2002 2002 to 2003 2003 to 2004 2004 to 2005 2005 to 2006 2006 to 2007 2007 to 2008 2008 to 2009 2009 to 2010 2010 to 2011 2011 to 2012 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 9 2012 to 2013 Census Division name Census Division ID 3546 Haliburton 0.0 - 0.3 - 0.1 0.2 - 0.1 1.7 2.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.0 1.9 3511 Lennox & Addington 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 - 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.8 1.7 3506 Ottawa 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 3502 Prescott & Russell 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 3516 Kawartha Lakes 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.4 0.7 - 0.9 - 0.4 - 0.8 - 0.3 - 0.1 0.7 0.6 3514 Northumberland 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 3510 Frontenac 0.0 - 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 3515 Peterborough 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.5 - 0.1 0.2 - 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 3507 Leeds & Grenville 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 - 0.1 - 0.2 - 0.4 0.2 - 0.1 0.1 0.0 3509 Lanark 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 - 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3501 Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry - 0.1 - 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.1 - 0.4 - 0.3 - 0.2 0.0 - 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 3547 Renfrew 0.4 - 0.3 - 0.2 0.0 - 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 -0.1 3512 Hastings 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 3513 Prince Edward 0.4 - 0.2 0.8 0.3 - 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 - 0.7 - 0.9 - 0.4 0.0 0.0 - 0.2 - 0.8 -0.9 Source: Statistics Canada. 2014. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Tables051-0052.
  10. 10. Haliburton, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 10 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  11. 11. Lennox and Addington, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 11 45,000 44,000 43,000 42,000 41,000 40,000 39,000 38,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  12. 12. Ottawa, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 12 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 Total population 19961997 1998 19992000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20062007 2008 20092010 2011 20122013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  13. 13. Prescott and Russell, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 13 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  14. 14. Kawartha Lakes, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 14 78,000 76,000 74,000 72,000 70,000 68,000 66,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  15. 15. Northumberland, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 15 86,000 84,000 82,000 80,000 78,000 76,000 74,000 72,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  16. 16. Frontenac, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 16 160,000 155,000 150,000 145,000 140,000 135,000 130,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  17. 17. Peterborough, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 17 140,000 138,000 136,000 134,000 132,000 130,000 128,000 126,000 124,000 122,000 120,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  18. 18. Leeds and Grenville, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 18 103,000 102,000 101,000 100,000 99,000 98,000 97,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  19. 19. Lanark, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 19 68,000 67,000 66,000 65,000 64,000 63,000 62,000 61,000 60,000 59,000 58,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  20. 20. Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 20 117,000 116,000 115,000 114,000 113,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  21. 21. Renfrew, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 21 105,000 104,000 103,000 102,000 101,000 100,000 99,000 98,000 97,000 96,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  22. 22. Hastings, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 22 140,000 138,000 136,000 134,000 132,000 130,000 128,000 126,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  23. 23. Prince Edward, Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 23 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 Total population 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  24. 24. The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario • Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees • First, trends in total population • Then, components of population change: – Natural Balance (births minus deaths) RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 24
  25. 25. Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario ranked by Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of population, 2013 Ottawa 0.48 Prescott & Russell 0.26 Frontenac 0.07 Renfrew 0.04 Hastings 0.00 Lanark -0.06 Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry -0.11 Peterborough -0.11 Lennox & Addington -0.13 Leeds & Grenville -0.25 Kawartha Lakes -0.26 Northumberland -0.33 Haliburton -0.48 Prince Edward -0.48 Source: Statistics Canada. 2014. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 25
  26. 26. Ottawa, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 26 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 -0.60 -0.70 -0.80 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  27. 27. Prescott and Russell, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 27 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 -0.60 -0.70 -0.80 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  28. 28. Frontenac, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 28 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  29. 29. Renfrew, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 29 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  30. 30. Hastings, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 30 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  31. 31. Lanark, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 31 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  32. 32. Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 32 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  33. 33. Peterborough, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 33 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  34. 34. Lennox and Addington, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 34 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  35. 35. Leeds and Grenville, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 35 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  36. 36. Kawartha Lakes, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 36 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  37. 37. Northumberland, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 37 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  38. 38. Haliburton, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 38 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 -0.60 -0.70 -0.80 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  39. 39. Prince Edward, Ontario Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 39 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 -0.60 -0.70 -0.80 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  40. 40. The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario • Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees • First, trends in total population • Then, components of population change: – Natural Balance (births minus deaths) – Voting with your feet – Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 40
  41. 41. Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) sorted by net internal migration (i.e. migration within Canada) (July 1, 2011 to June 30, 2012) as a percent of total population Total migration into CD Total migration out of CD Net migration with other CDs As percent of total population 3546 Haliburton 1,163 734 429 2.47 3511 Lennox & Addington 2,812 2,052 760 1.77 3514 Northumberland 3,547 2,738 809 0.96 3516 Kawartha Lakes 3,817 3,113 704 0.94 3502 Prescott & Russell 4,000 3,493 507 0.58 3507 Leeds & Grenville 4,062 3,684 378 0.37 3509 Lanark 3,049 2,902 147 0.22 3510 Frontenac 7,323 6,998 325 0.21 3515 Peterborough 5,129 4,849 280 0.20 3506 Ottawa 26,663 25,254 1,409 0.15 3501 Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry 3,189 3,114 75 0.06 3547 Renfrew 4,219 4,251 -32 -0.03 3512 Hastings 5,944 6,143 -199 -0.14 3513 Prince Edward 1,327 1,392 -65 -0.25 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Tables 051-0062, 051-0063 and 051-0064. RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 41
  42. 42. Haliburton, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 42 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 -3.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  43. 43. Lennox and Addington, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 43 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  44. 44. Northumberland, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 44 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  45. 45. Kawartha Lakes, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 45 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  46. 46. Prescott and Russell, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 46 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  47. 47. Leeds and Grenville, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 47 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  48. 48. Lanark, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 48 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  49. 49. Frontenac, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 49 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  50. 50. Peterborough, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  51. 51. Ottawa, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 51 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  52. 52. Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 52 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  53. 53. Renfrew, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 53 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  54. 54. Hastings, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 54 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  55. 55. Prince Edward, Ontario Net migration into this census division from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 55 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
  56. 56. The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario • Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees • First, trends in total population • Then, components of population change: – Natural Balance (births minus deaths) – Voting with your feet – Prince Edward Census Division: • Largest % decline in total population in 2013 • Largest % decline due to net migration in 2013 • Here we look at net migration of youth for the three census divisions with the largest % decline in population in 2013: • Prince Edward -0.9%, Hastings -0.2%, Renfrew -0.1% RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 56
  57. 57. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5), Prince Edward Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 57 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1 t=1 Population 15 to 19 in 1996 Population 15 to 19 in 1997 Population 15 to 19 in 1998
  58. 58. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5), Prince Edward Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 58 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1 t=5 Population 20 to 24 in 2001 Population 20 to 24 in 2004 GAP = net decline from 2001 to 2006
  59. 59. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5), Prince Edward Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 59 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1
  60. 60. Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5), Prince Edward Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 60 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1
  61. 61. Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5), Prince Edward Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 61 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1
  62. 62. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5), Hastings Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 62 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1
  63. 63. Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5), Hastings Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 63 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1
  64. 64. Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5), Hastings Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 64 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1
  65. 65. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5), Renfrew Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 65 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1
  66. 66. Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5), Renfrew Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 66 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1
  67. 67. Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5), Renfrew Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 67 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1
  68. 68. Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5), Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 68 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 -2,500 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1
  69. 69. Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5), Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 69 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 -2,500 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1
  70. 70. Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 70 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 -2,500 1996 to 2001 1997 to 2002 1998 to 2003 1999 to 2004 2000 to 2005 2001 to 2006 2002 to 2007 2003 to 2008 2004 to 2009 2005 to 2010 2006 to 2011 2007 to 2012 Stayers t=1 to t=5 Net migrants t=1 to t=5 Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052. Number t=1 the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5), Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division
  71. 71. The demographic trends of rural Ontario •Conclusions •Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees •Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013 •Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013 •But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013 •Regarding employment trends •Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003 •In Eastern Ontario, employment in: • the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and • Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September, 2005 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 71
  72. 72. Ontario's non-metro employment was 1.24 million in June, 2014 -- the same level as November, 2003 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 72 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number employed (,000) (15 years of age and over) (using a 12-month moving average) Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Tables 282-0001 and 282-0111.
  73. 73. Economic Regions 3510 Ottawa (and area) Economic Region: • includes Census Divisions: • 01 Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry United Counties, • 02 Prescott and Russell United Counties, • 06 Ottawa Division • 07 Leeds and Grenville United Counties ,and • 09 Lanark County. 3515 Kingston – Pembroke Economic Region: • Includes Census Divisions: • 10 Frontenac Management board, • 11 Lennox and Addington County, • 12 Hastings County, • 13 Prince Edward Division, and • 47 Renfrew County. RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 73
  74. 74. Number employed in Ontario's Ottawa (and area) Economic Region Number employed (,000) (12-month moving average) RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 74 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054. June, 2012
  75. 75. Number employed in Ontario's Kingston - Pembroke Economic Region Number employed (,000) (12-month moving average) RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 75 250 225 200 175 150 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054. September, 2005
  76. 76. The demographic trends of rural Ontario •Conclusions •Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees •Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013 •Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013 •But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013 •Regarding employment trends •Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003 •In Eastern Ontario, employment in: • the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and • Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September, 2005 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 76
  77. 77. 77 Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Presentation to the session on Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks Ontario East Municipal Conference September 10, 2014 Kingston Ray D. Bollman RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan Questions / Discussion

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