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Topic 2 "

  1. 1. 2.2. Motive techno forces shaping evolution processes in ICT - Microprocessors - Photonics
  2. 2. <ul><li>A. Moore’s Law </li></ul><ul><li>Gordon E. Moore. &quot;Cramming more components onto integrated circuits,&quot; Electronics, volume 38, number 8 (19 April, 1965), at http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/moorespaper.pdf </li></ul><ul><li>Exponential increase in the number of components on a chip </li></ul><ul><li>Doubling of number of transistors on a chip every 18 months (1980s) </li></ul><ul><li>Doubling of microprocessor power every 18 months (1990s) </li></ul><ul><li>Computing power at fixed cost is doubling every 18 months (1990s) </li></ul><ul><li>Throughput of integrated circuits, in MIPS, will doubled every </li></ul><ul><li>18 months with cost of decrease by 50%, and this regularity </li></ul><ul><li>will remain correct for several decades. </li></ul><ul><li>(MIPS -millions of instructions per second) </li></ul><ul><li>Reliability </li></ul><ul><li>Power consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Miniaturization (number of transistors per chip) </li></ul><ul><li>Terminal devices in the single chips </li></ul>
  3. 3. A. Moore‘s Law (Cntd) 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 11 10 10 10 3 10 4 10 9 1990 1980 1970 2000 2010 Transistors per Chip <ul><li>Intel </li></ul><ul><li>Motorola </li></ul>DRAMs Processors 64M 256M 1G 4G 16G 64G 1M 4M 16M 64k 256k 1k 4k 16k 4004 8086 80286 80386 i486 Pentium Pentium Pro PPC 620 Pentium II Pentium III Source: Siemens ICN 1947: 1000 MW Pentium IV 2020 10 12 We can store and process all information. 30 min. music 256G 1T McKinley Itanium (Merced) 6 days music 4 h video 2.000.000 pages
  4. 4. A. Moore‘s Law (Cntd) <ul><li>1988 - 275,000 transistors on the Intel 80386 chips </li></ul><ul><li>1992 - 1.4 million transistors on the 80486 SL chips </li></ul><ul><li>Pentium, Pentium Pro and Pentium II processor families </li></ul><ul><li>1999 - 28 million transistors (Intel Pentium III Xeon and Mobile Pentium III processors) </li></ul><ul><li>2001 - 42 million transistors (Pentium 4) </li></ul>
  5. 5. Evolution of Computer Power/Cost 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year 1 Bio 1 Mio 1 1000 1 1000 MIPS per $1000 (1997 Dollars) Monroe Calculator IBM Tabulator Burroughs Class 16 Zuse-1 ASCC (Mark 1) IBM 650 IBM 1620 Colossus ENIAC UNIVAC I Burroughs 5000 IBM 7040 IBM 350/75 SDS 920 DG Nova DEC-KL-10 DEC VAX 11/780 VAX 11/750 Sun-3 IBM PS/290 AT&T Globalyst 600 Power Tower 150e IBM 704 Whirlwind IBM 7090 IBM 1130 DEC PDP-10 CDC 7600 DG Eclipse Apple II Sun-2 IBM PC Commodore 64 Macintosh-128K Mac II Gateway-485DX2/55 PowerMac 8100/80 Gateway G6-200 2040
  6. 6. 150 000 DM 1973 1977 1981 1984 1987 1991 1995 10 000 DM 800 DM 240 DM 10 DM 60 DM 1 DM 1999 2005 2009 2017 2013 3 Cent 1 Cent O,5 Cent 0,1 Cent 26 Pfennig History Forecast 1 gummi bear 1 sheet of paper 1 post it 1 paperclip Prices of 1 Mbit DRAM Expensive functions and applications today will be cheap tomorrow. Source: acc. to Weick, Manfred, ZT IK MK 2002 5 Cent 1 chewing gum
  7. 7. <ul><li>B. Photonic technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Fiber optic cables for long-haul networks – beginning of </li></ul><ul><li>70-th </li></ul><ul><li>Main directions of FOC development: </li></ul><ul><li>The transition from multimode to single mode fiber </li></ul><ul><li>Wavelength changing of the applied spectral windows with  =0,85 mkm to  =1,33/1,55 mkm </li></ul><ul><li>The decrease of attenuation in the fiber from figures of several dozens of dB/km to 0,2 dB/km </li></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>Photonic technologies (Cntd) </li></ul><ul><li># Main requirements – grows of network capacity </li></ul><ul><li># Boom growth of traffic, especially data </li></ul><ul><li># Number of factors: </li></ul><ul><li>Accelerated development of the Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Commercial applications of graphic and video information exchange </li></ul><ul><li>The growth of worldwide business, which leads to the growth of worldwide traffic </li></ul><ul><li># New technologies for photonic networks </li></ul><ul><li>SDH/DWDM </li></ul><ul><li>Tbits/s </li></ul>
  9. 9. Performance improvements in photonics Year 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 +70 % p.y. 40´10 G Theoretical limit of glass fiber 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8 10 10 16´2.5 G 10 G 2.5 G 565 M 140 M 34 M Experiment: 7 Tbit/s, 50 km Product 160x10G; 80 km +100 % p.y. Fiber Capacity Mbit/s*km Source: ICN M TA: Photonics
  10. 10. 2.3. Mega trends on ICT - Digitalization - Mobile communications - Internet - Convergence of services/networks/devices - Main shifts on ICT
  11. 11. <ul><li>A. Digitalization </li></ul><ul><li>Digitalization of: </li></ul><ul><li>Information </li></ul><ul><li>Information processing tools </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation systems </li></ul><ul><li>Transition from analog to digital format </li></ul><ul><li>Analog networks - separate </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated networks - digital </li></ul><ul><li>Convergence in ICT </li></ul>
  12. 12. B. Mobile communications
  13. 13. Grows of subscribers 2002: Fixed = Mobile 1,15 Billion Grows: Fixed –2%, Mobile – 10% (ITU)
  14. 14. Grows of fixed and mobile and distribution by technology
  15. 15. Grows of fixed and mobile subscribers
  16. 16. Ovum
  17. 17. Limitations of 2G systems
  18. 18. Evolution of mobile communications
  19. 19. <ul><li>Brief History of the Internet </li></ul><ul><li>1957 – Launch of Sputnik is impetus for U.S. to form ARPA (DoD) </li></ul><ul><li>1965 – ARPA sponsors a study “Cooperative network for </li></ul><ul><li>time-sharing”; Innovation of packet switching </li></ul><ul><li>( D. Devis , UK, P. Baran , US) </li></ul><ul><li>1969 – September 2, launch of first computer network </li></ul><ul><li>ARPANET </li></ul><ul><li>1972 – Beginning of E-mail ( Tomlinson , US) </li></ul><ul><li>1974 – First article about TCP/IP ( Cerf/Kahn ) </li></ul><ul><li>1979 – Establishing first research computer network (NSF, </li></ul><ul><li>Univ. Wisc., DARPA) </li></ul>C. Internet
  20. 20. <ul><li>Brief History of the Internet (Cntd) </li></ul><ul><li>1982 – Internet defined as TCP/IP-connected network </li></ul><ul><li>1986 – 56 kb/s NSFNET created for 5 supercomputing </li></ul><ul><li>centers </li></ul><ul><li>1989 – Number of Internet nodes breaks 100 000; IETF </li></ul><ul><li>comes into existence </li></ul><ul><li>1992 – WWW released; Number of nodes breaks 1M </li></ul><ul><li>1995 – VoIP comes to the market </li></ul><ul><li>2001 – Number of hosts breaks 300M </li></ul><ul><li>2002 – VoIP has taken away 13% of long-haul telephone traffic </li></ul>
  21. 21. The Internet timeline 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Military/Academic Apps Commercial Apps Number of hosts Number of users <ul><li>Reasons for grows: </li></ul><ul><li>Windows </li></ul><ul><li>Modems </li></ul><ul><li>Searching tools </li></ul><ul><li>HTL </li></ul>
  22. 22. Forecast of the global voice/data traffic’s growth 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total telephone traffic International telephone traffic Data traffic Tbps Source: Arthur D. Little, 1999
  23. 23. Today´s realities 24 2 0.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 Fixed Data Fixed telephony Mobile Traffic Volume (Tbps) European carriers’ revenues Source: IDATE, Mar 2000 2004, Total USD $295 billion Fixed Data 10% European carrier’s traffic Other 13% Fixed telephony 39% Mobile services 38% Source: Blended from IDC, ECTA, & Operators Where traffic comes from in 2004 <ul><ul><li>Fixed Data Services Comprise a Smaller Proportion of Income but Represent the Largest Proportion of Traffic </li></ul></ul>
  24. 24. Total U.S. Internet traffic Voice Crossover: August 2000 4/Year 2.8/Year Projected at 4/Year Source: Roberts et al., 2001 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1Gbps 1Tbps 10Tbps 100Gbps 10Gbps 100Tbps 100Mbps 1Kbps 1Mbps 10Mbps 100Kbps 10Kbps 100 bps 1 Pbps 100 Pbps 10 Pbps 10 bps 10 bps ARPA & NSF Data to 1996 New Measurements
  25. 25. <ul><li>Internet market maturity </li></ul><ul><li>(TeleGeography Survey, 2005) </li></ul><ul><li>Stabilization of traffic </li></ul><ul><li>Global cross-border internet traffic will grow by 49% in 2005, down from 103% in 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>In the mid-2005 – 1 Tbit/s </li></ul><ul><li>In 2008 - 2-3 Tbit/s </li></ul><ul><li>Stabilization of prices </li></ul><ul><li>In 2004, backbone access prices around the world fell about 50 percent over the previous year </li></ul><ul><li>In 2005 prices fell between 23 and 33 percent, and many providers have stated that they have no plans to reduce prices further </li></ul>
  26. 26. Some issues of Internet traffic <ul><li>Most traffic is from corporations (80% estimated) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Main growth is from corporations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Last mile” has been improving rapidly (100–1000 Mbps) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Corporate traffic is anti-recessionary </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Move from public networks to private networks using Internet for cost reduction (VPN) </li></ul></ul></ul>
  27. 27. <ul><ul><li>- Corporate Internet use hit critical mass in 2000 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Now need to use the Internet for all business </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Inter-corporate traffic is now mainly over the Internet </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Intra-corporate traffic is growing in size (E-mail documents) </li></ul></ul></ul>- Personal traffic is growing but broadband deployment is slow - Internationally, traffic is still at the pre-2000 growth rate of 2.8/year Some issues of Internet traffic (Cntd)
  28. 28. Penetration rates of services (US market) Time to reach 50 mio customers 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1922 1950 1980 1995 Radio (40 Years) TV (15 Years) Cable (10 Years) Computer Internet (<5 Years) Mobile Phone Telephone (90 Years) millions of customers Products have an accelerated market penetration. Napster 18 months
  29. 29. Penetration (in %%) of different technologies and devices Mobile penetration Internet penetration PC penetration Broadband Penetration USA Europe Asia 36 50-60 40 5-10 20 40 70 << 5 17 <5 <30 <<<5 Source: Cisco, 2002
  30. 30. Mobile vs. fixed Internet penetration in Europe Source: Siemens Mobile and Internet penetration in Western European countries (YE 2000) (Fixed) Internet penetration (in %) Mobile penetration (in %) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% CH FIN SWE GRE POR ITA AUT NOR LUX NL SPA IRL FRA BEL GER UK DK 50% 50% 60% 70% 80% 40%
  31. 31. D. Convergence of networks/services/devices United Network
  32. 32. <ul><li>TODAY TOMORROW </li></ul>Main shifts on ICT Telephony IP Apps Circuit based Packet based Mobile Wireline Connectionless Connections Mobile Packet based Connectionless IP Apps Telephony Connections Circuit based Wireline <ul><li>Analog Digital Fixed Mobile Voice Data </li></ul>CONVERGENCE
  33. 33. Main shifts on ICT (Cntd) Telephones, PCs, TVs Flat networks with distance- independent tariffs Voice/data on networks Data, then MM dominates on networks Proprietary and specialized networking Totally open and interoperable networks Global network of networks Dedicated applications High tariffs for long-distance service TODAY TOMMOROW Multifunctional devices with network interfaces Apps designed for universal and independent using PSTN and Internet are separated
  34. 34. Concluding remarks Global MM-MS network After 2010 all information will be digitally stored and sent via the global network.

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