Global Meat Production, Jan 2012

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Global meat perspectives 2011 to 2020: challenges and opportunities

Global Meat Production, Jan 2012

  1. 1. “Global meat productiontowards 2020” Luciano Roppa D.V.M.ROPPA Consulting, January 2012 L. Roppa Consulting
  2. 2. Global meat production towards 2020Objectives of this presentation: L. Roppa Consulting
  3. 3. Our World towards 2020 … FACTS Population growth: 6,9 to 7,6 billion + 700 million people 88 % will happen in Asia and Africa Urbanization growth: 3,3 to 4,3 billion + 1 billion people Mostly in Asia and AfricaPurchasing power growth: 7,350 to 9,280 USD 40 % of the world’s population lives in countries with economies that are growing at 8 % annually.China and India middle class will grow from actual 400 million to more than 1 billion by 2020 L. Roppa Consulting
  4. 4. IMPACT … meat consumption increase Meat consumption will increase near 4 times more in Developing countries than in Developed countries ... Meat consumption (poultry, beef and pork), 2010 to 2020 (million MT) 2010 2020 Quantity, Current Kg/ million T personWorld 269,08 322,75 53,67 40,9DEVELOPED 108,18 119,77 11,59 80,0DEVELOPING 160,90 202,98 42,08 32,0 Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  5. 5. IMPACT … meat consumption increaseMeat consumption growth of 54 Mt is projected by 2020 … predominantly in Asia Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  6. 6. IMPACT … Grain demand increase The demand for Cereals is expected to grow 16%Million MT 2010 2020 Growth, %COARSE GRAINS 1.114,3 1.320,7 18,5WHEAT 653,2 745,9 14,2OILSEEDS 433,7 507,2 16,9RICE 465,9 528,1 13,3 Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  7. 7. Our World towards 2020 … FACTS Water: World’s water needs will grow by 15 % over the next 10 years … Water scarcity is a global phenomenon, but will affect more Asia and Africa. Arable Land: Land available for agriculture is declining From 0,50 Ha of arable land per person in 1950 to 0,25 Ha in 2010. Sources of growth in crop production to meet Global food needs by 2050 Yields Crop Area intensity expansion World 77 % 14 % 9% Source: OCDE – FAO, 2010 Energy: World primary energy will grow by 20% over the next 10 yearsDeveloping economies drive Energy consumption growth (30% higher than today) L. Roppa Consulting
  8. 8. IMPACT … Land grabbing “Made in China” x “Made for China” Without land and water in their own country, Governments will produce abroad … Governments purchasing land abroad 31.0 (in ‘000 km2, 2006-2009) 7.3 6.9 5.1 3.5 China UAE South Korea Saudi Arabia LybiaSource: FAO, World Agriculture: towards 2015/2030, L. Roppa Consulting
  9. 9. IMPACT … Biofuels production growth By 2020: - 12% of the global production of Coarse Grains will be used to produce Ethanol- 16% of the global production of Vegetable Oils will be used to produce Biodiesel Biofuels production growth, 2010 to 2020 2010 2020 Growth, % Ethanol, 99,4 154,9 55,8 million liters Biodiesel, 19,8 41,9 111,6 million liters Source: L. Roppa, 2011 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  10. 10. IMPACT … Food Price volatility When a significant amount of the crops goes to produce Biofuels, feed costs are likely to remain high and volatile Commodity Food Price Index, Monthly Price evolution, 2001 to 2011 December 2001 to December 2011: 109,4 %Description: Commodity Food Price Index, 2005 = 100, includes Cereal, Vegetable Oils, Meat, Seafood, Sugar, Bananas, and Oranges Price IndicesSource: www.indexmundi.com L. Roppa Consulting
  11. 11. Our World towards 2020 … FACTSMeat production requirements are increasing,driven by consumer sensitivity and regulations. Food safety Health & Wellness Animal welfare Environment Sustainability Traceability L. Roppa Consulting
  12. 12. FACT … Environment & Climate changesPoultry meat has the least impact on the environment per kg of meat produced Source: IMPRO, 2008 - Elaboration: Luciano Roppa 2009 L. Roppa Consulting
  13. 13. Impact: Better efficiency = lower Emission Source: Flachowsky & Hachenberg, 2009 Younger age at slaughter (Feedlots, Genetic, Additives …)  Improve Pasture (Carbon Sequestration) L. Roppa Consulting
  14. 14. IMPACT … future meat consumption Meat consumption by Species, 2010 to 2020 2010, 2020, Kg/person/ year % Kg/person/year PORK 15,5 16,6 7,1POULTRY 14,2 16,0 12,6 BEEF 9,4 9,6 2,1 SHEEP 1,8 2,0 11,1 TOTAL 40,9 44,2 8,1 Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  15. 15. FACT … Economic crisis Real GDP growth, in per cent 2010 2011 2012 2013 United States 3.0 1.7 2.0 2.5 Euro area 1.8 1.6 0.2 1.4 Japan 4.1 -0.3 2.0 1.6 Total OECD 3.1 1.9 1.6 2.3 Brazil 7.5 3.4 3.2 3.9 China 10.4 9.3 8.5 9.5 India 9.9 7.7 7.2 8.2 Indonesia 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.5 Russian Federation 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 WORLD 5,0 3,8 3,4 4,3Source: OECD Economic Outlook 90 database. – Elaboration: Luciano Roppa, 2012. L. Roppa Consulting
  16. 16. IMPACT … meat consumption USA: Meat Price and Consumption change after feed price surge and economic crisisChange in Price (06/07=100) Change in per capita consumption L. Roppa Consulting
  17. 17. ACTIONS & CHALLENGES- Produce more(growth in population and purchasing power)- Better(food safety, animal well-being and sustainability)- With less resources(less land, water, labor, energy & higher prices)- At a lower cost(huge population with small income)- With technology(research, innovation …) L. Roppa Consulting
  18. 18. ACTIONS … increase meat production Meat production* growth 2010-2020: 19,7% 2010 2020 Quantity % Million T Million T Million TWorld 270,41 323,83 53,42 19,7DEVELOPED 111,37 123,77 12,40 11,1DEVELOPING 159,04 200,05 41,01 25,7Latin America 46,28 57,31 11,0 23,8* poultry, beef and pork Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  19. 19. Where meat production will grow? 2010 2020 Growth, (million T) (million T) % World 270,41 323,83 19,71 - China 72,62 89,51 23,22 - EU 27 42,10 43,80 4,03 - USA 40,80 46,39 13,74 - Brazil 25,13 31,18 24,15 - Russia 6,93 8,73 25,96 - India 6,12 7,79 27,37 - Mexico 5,59 6,93 23,9 Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020” and MAPA, 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  20. 20. ACTIONS … Poultry production growthProjected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 2,5% per year POULTRY, million 2010 2020 T WORLD 97,546 122,411 Latin America 22,490 28,831 Share, % 23,0 23,5 Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  21. 21. ACTIONS … Pork production growthProjected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 1,8% per year PORK, million T 2010 2020 WORLD 107,942 127,299 Latin America 6,710 8,245 Share, % 6,2 6,5 Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  22. 22. ACTIONS … Beef production growthProjected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 1,4% per year BEEF, million T 2010 2020 WORLD 64,927 74,127 Latin America 17,085 20,232 Share, % 26,3 27,3 Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  23. 23. ACTIONS … Milk production growthProjected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 2,2% per year MILK (KT) 2010 2020 WORLD 699.591 852.898 Latin America 76,44 93,85 Share, % 10,9 11,0 Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  24. 24. ACTIONS … Who will Export? Main meat exporters, 2020 (million MT) Beef Pork Poultry Total1 - Brazil 2,325 0,761 5,171 8,2572 - USA 1,444 2,577 3,702 7,7233 - Canada 0,912 1,399 0,196 2,5074 - EU-27 0,138 1,459 0,898 2,495World 10,457 7,568 12,526 30,551 Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  25. 25. ACTIONS … Who will Import? Main meat importers, 2020 (million MT) Beef Poultry Pork Total1 - USA 1,896 0,048 0,696 2,6402 - Japan 0,770 0,343 1,114 2,2273 - Mexico 0,377 0,858 0,559 1,7944 - EU-27 0,635 0,883 0,037 1,5555 - Russia 0,790 0,802 0,102 1,694World 9,873 12,512 7,151 29,536 Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  26. 26. Production Surplus & DeficitSurplus DeficitSource: Goldman Sachs, 2011 L. Roppa Consulting
  27. 27. OUR CHALLENGES L. Roppa Consulting
  28. 28. To reduce Food losses …One-third of the edible parts of food produced for human consumption, gets lost or wasted globally, which is about 1.3 billion ton per year We need to reduce the current Food losses: Meat 20% Cereals 30% L. Roppa Consulting
  29. 29. THE GENETIC CHALLENGEThe genetic selection linked to nutrition, is likely to change in favor of genotypes capable of being productive in a range of commercial environments 2010 2020 BROILERS Weight (g) 2.495 2.948 Average daily gain (g) 59 70 Days to 2.200 kg 37,3 31,4 SWINE Piglets/sow/year 28 35 Meat(kg) / Sow / Year 2500 3500 Average Daily gain (30-100kg) 800 g 900-1000 g Feed Conversion (30-100kg) 2,6 : 1 2,4 : 1 DAIRY CATTLE Milk production, EMC 7.250 10.500 Age at first farrowing, months 28 25 L. Roppa Consulting
  30. 30. THE FOOD SAFETY CHALLENGE Over the past 15 years, laboratory equipments developed detections from ppm (parts per million) to ppq (parts per quadrillion) Additional legislation will affect the feed sector, includingenvironmental protection, feed hygiene and food-safety issuesCompanies will only source feed, ingredients & additives from suppliers with world-class food safety practices. L. Roppa Consulting
  31. 31. THE RAW MATERIAL CHALLENGERaw material will increase their prices and some of them will be less available … • Search for local and cheaper raw material alternatives • Increasing usage of synthetic forms of essential Amino Acids • Greater accuracy in dietary macronutrient and micronutrient provision (NIR)• A more efficient conversion of by-products (rich in NSP) into high quality food will remain a top priority area of research in the future (enzymes) L. Roppa Consulting
  32. 32. THE EFFICIENCY CHALLENGEThe restricting or even banning of anti-infective is likely to continue ... Growing demand for nutritional ideas, technologies and additives that improve feed efficiency  Anti Oxidants  Enzymes  Prebiotics (MOSS)  Organic Minerals  Probiotics  Essential oils  Mycotoxin Binders  Immune stimulators  Acidifiers  Synthetic Amino Acids L. Roppa Consulting
  33. 33. Final comment …“More food must be produced sustainably, through the spread and implementation of existing knowledge and by the investment in technology and innovation” Meat quality Animal welfare Food safety Efficiency Environment  Genomic technologies  Nutraceuticals  Food biotechnology Innovation &  Immune modulators Technologies  Organic minerals (think Globally, act Locally)  New Enzymes  Ingredients processing  Carbon reduction  Mathematical models Today Future Roppa Consulting L.
  34. 34. Thank you for your attention! L. Roppa Consulting

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