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Updates on Threats of Violent Extremism in the Philippines

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Lecture delivered at a Public Forum on Violent Extremism organized by the Department of International Studies and International Studies Society of Miriam College on 11 March 2019.

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Updates on Threats of Violent Extremism in the Philippines

  1. 1.   ROMMEL  C.  BANLAOI,  PhD     Delivered  at    a  Public  Forum  on  Violent  Extremism  organized  by  the  Department  of  Interna>onal   Studies  and  Interna>onal  Studies  Society  of  Miriam  College  on  11  March  2019.        
  2. 2. Violent  Extremism   It  is  an  intolerant  faith,  belief,  ideology  or   worldview  that  endorses  and  glorifies  the   use  of  violence  against  others  not  sharing   that  faith,  belief,  ideology  or  worldview.  
  3. 3. In  the  Philippines,  violent  extremism  is  currently  associated   with  ISIS/ISIL/DAESH  
  4. 4. Because  of  the  presence  of  ISIS   followers  in  the  country,     violent  extremism  poses  a  clear  and   present  danger  to  Philippine  security!  
  5. 5. Threats  of  violent  extremism  in  the   Philippines  is  real  and  not  imagined!  
  6. 6. ISIS  claims  to  have  established  in  the  Southern  Philippines   its  East  Asia  Wilayah  or  Islamic  State  East  Asia  (ISEA).  
  7. 7. Pro-­‐ISIS  Groups  In  Southeast  Asia   Source:    InternaQonal  Center  for  PoliQcal  Violence  and  Terrorism  Research,  2018  
  8. 8. AVer  Marawi  LiberaQon……   ISIS  Philippines  (ISISP)/Islamic  State  Philippines   (ISP)/Daulah  Islamiya  Alfalabin  (DIA)  is:   •  Down,  but  not  fully  defeated.    It  is  aIemp>ng  to  rise  again.     •  Broken,  but  not  really  dissolved.  It’s  resolved  to  wreak  havoc.   •  Wounded,  but  not  dead.  It  is  struggling  to  survive.   •  Weak,  but  can  s>ll  mount  very  strong  violent  aIacks.   •  Smaller  in  size.  But  it  can  s>ll  create  big  trouble.  
  9. 9. “ISIS-­‐directed”  violent  a[acks     aVer  Marawi  siege   •  Lamitan  City  bombing  –  31  July  2018   •  Isulan,  Sultan  Kudarat  bombings  –  28  August/2  September  2018   •  General  Santos  City  bombing  –  16  September  2018   •  Cotabato  City  bombing  –  31  December  2018   •  Jolo  Cathedral  bombing  –  27  January  2019   Next?  
  10. 10. • Followers  are  conQnuously  on  the  run.       – But    they  s>ll  have  a  strong  mass  base  from   community  support  networks  of    many  friends,   rela>ves,  classmates,  and  neighbors.     – Support  network  includes  some  unscrupulous   local  officials,  violent  entrepreneurs,  and   scalawags  in  uniforms.    
  11. 11. •  Networks  are  solidified  by  blood  rela>ons,   intermarriages,  ethnic  >es,  personal  rela>ons,   shared  belief,  shared  grievances,  and  common   love  for  money  and  power.   •  They  thrive  in  depressed  areas,  especially  in  IDP   camps/refugee  centers,  where  there  seem  to  be   no  presence  of  a  government…  where  people  feel   being  forgoIen.  
  12. 12. • Not  yet  a  spent  force.     –   It  con>nues  to  be  a  lethal  force  that  can  wreak   havoc  any>me  now,    even  in  the  near  future,   anywhere  in  the  Philippines.   •  Preven>ng  and  countering  violent  extremism  will   be  a  long  struggle.   – We  need  to  deal  with  violent  extremism  as  long   as  it  takes.  
  13. 13. Where  are  threats  of  violent   extremism  in  the  Philippines   coming  from?  
  14. 14. ISLAMIC STATE EAST ASIA /WILAYAT SHARQ ASSIYA
  15. 15. ISLAMIC STATE PHILIPPINES HATIB  HAJAN  SAWADJAAN   (AMIR)   ASG-­‐SULU/AJANG  AJANG  GROUP   ASG-­‐BASILAN   PURUJI  INDAMA   RADZMIL  JANNATUL   BIFF-­‐TURAYFE  GROUP   Maguindanao/N  Cot   ESMAEL  ABDULMALIK   HUMAM  ABDULNAJID   Owayda  Marohombsar   ABU  DAR  GROUP   Maute  Group  Remnants   Lanao  Provinces   MOHAMAD  KAREM   @Abu  Mohammad   AKP-­‐MAGUID  GROUP   SoCSarGen/CDO  
  16. 16. ISLAMIC STATE PHILIPPINES HATIB  HAJAN  SAWADJAAN   (AMIR)   ASG-­‐SULU/AJANG  AJANG  GROUP   ASG-­‐BASILAN   PURUJI  INDAMA   RADZMIL  JANNATUL   BIFF-­‐TURAYFE  GROUP   Maguindanao/N  Cot   ESMAEL  ABDULMALIK   HUMAM  ABDULNAJID   Owayda  Marohombsar   ABU  DAR  GROUP   Maute  Group  Remnants   Lanao  Provinces   MOHAMAD  KAREM   @Abu  Mohammad   AKP-­‐MAGUID  GROUP   SoCSarGen/CDO  
  17. 17. Around  250  followers   Jolo  Cathedral  bombing  –  27  January  2019   Daula  Islamiya  Alfalabin   Daula  Islamiya  Fi  Sulu  
  18. 18. Around  250  followers  
  19. 19. Source:  PNP  
  20. 20. Source:    Eastern  Sabah  Security  Command  (ESSCOM)  
  21. 21. Around150  followers   Lamitan  City  bombing     –  31  July  2018   Daula  Islamiya  Wilayatul  Mashriq   Daula  Islamiya  Fi  Basilan  
  22. 22. Around  200  followers   Isulan,  Sultan  Kudarat  bombings  –  28  August/2  September  2018   Cotabato  City  bombing  –  31  December  2018   Daula  Islamiya  Fi  Maguindanao/Daula  Islamiya  Fi  Mindanao  
  23. 23.   Mohaiden  Animbang     @  Karialan     Esmael  ABDULMALIK                                           @Abu  TORAYPE/ Turaifie  
  24. 24. 30-­‐  50  followers   Daula  Islamiya  Fi  Ranao  
  25. 25. 30-­‐  50  followers   Daula  Islamiya  Fi  Ranao   Abdul  Jalil  Romato    
  26. 26. 10-­‐  20  followers   General  Santos  City  bombing  –  16  September  2018  
  27. 27. 10-­‐  20  followers   NILONG  GROUP  
  28. 28. FOREIGN TERRORIST FIGHTERS Close to 100 FTFs are currently in the Philippines u  Around 45 Indonesians u  8-10 Malaysians u  7-10 Arabs mostly Saudis u  7 Sri Lankans (Tamils) u  3 Thais (Patanis) u  2 Singaporeans u  1 each: Bangladesh/Pakistani/Turkish u  Others ( e.g. Arabs, Europeans, Uyghurs) being investigated, verified and validated
  29. 29. FOREIGN TERRORIST FIGHTERS 40 Watchlisted FTFs presently in Mindanao are led by: u Abdul Azis Rajman and Abdul Malik Yamen (Indonesians) u Mohammad Ali Bin Al-Rahman @ Muawiyah (Singaporean) u Engr. Hattab @ Hattab (Malaysian)
  30. 30. FOREIGN TERRORIST FIGHTERS REGARD THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES AS: •  NEW LAND OF JIHAD •  SAFE HAVEN •  ALTERNATIVE HOME BASE
  31. 31. ROUTE  1   ROUTE  2   ROUTE  3   ROUTES OF ISIS FOREIGN FIGHTERS TO MARAWI ROUTE  4   ROUTE  5   ROUTE  6   MARAWI  CITY  
  32. 32. THE MOST ECONOMICAL ROUTE OF ISIS FOREIGN FIGHTERS TO MARAWI
  33. 33. SUYUFUL KHILAFA FI LUZON Rajah Solaiman Islamic Movement Jamal  al-­‐Tawhid  Wal  Jihad  Philippines  (JTJ)  
  34. 34. XX   X  
  35. 35. PRE-­‐MARAWI  IS  NETWORK  IN  RP   1994   2001   2014   2017  Al  Qaeda  Era   ISIS  Era   2016   Jamal  al-­‐Tawhid  Wal  J   ihad  Philippines  (JTJ)   NOW   2012  
  36. 36. Post-­‐Marawi/BTA  SituaQon     •  ISIS  followers  are    currently  regrouping/ reorganizing/recrui>ng  for  “Caliphate   rebuilding”.   •  Some  followers  are  now  shicing-­‐back  to  Al-­‐ Qaeda  tac>cs  of  “winning  the  hearts  and  minds”.     •   Others  con>nue  to  apply  ISIS’  “shock  and  awe”   tac>cs.    
  37. 37. Post-­‐Marawi/BTA  SituaQon     •  The  resurgence  of  JI  in  Indonesia  (as  well  as  the     reinvigora>on  of  Al-­‐Qaeda    and  decline  of  ISIS   worldwide)  will  affect  the  new  landscape  of  violent   extremism  in  the  Philippines.   •  Increasing  involvements  of  the  local  communist   movement  in  the  “Bangsamoro  struggle”  will   complicate  the  nature  of  con>nuing  armed  conflicts  in   Mindanao.  
  38. 38. Post-­‐Marawi/BTA  SituaQon     •  Effec>ve  governance  of  the  BTA  for  the  next   three  years  can  serve  as  a  strong  an>-­‐dote  to   violent  extremism.       •  But  unintended  governance  deficit  can  make  the   soil  of  discontents  more  fer>le  for  violent   extremism  to  grow  and  flourish  in  Mindanao.  
  39. 39. THANK  YOU  

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