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Carbon Markets & Trading Rod Beckstrom Chairman,  TWIKI.NET
Goals of Session <ul><li>Science </li></ul><ul><li>Dimensions </li></ul><ul><li>Policies & Markets </li></ul><ul><li>How t...
Science
 
 
 
Question <ul><li>What planet taught us about </li></ul><ul><li>global warming? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ceres </li></ul></ul>...
96.5% CO2
 
0.038% CO2 0.0005 % ^
CO2 Rising <ul><li>CO2 levels </li></ul><ul><li>1830  0.028 % </li></ul><ul><li>0.038% </li></ul><ul><li>0.0005 % ^ annual...
CO2 Cycle
Scientific Bodies Concerned <ul><li>NASA </li></ul><ul><li>IPCC </li></ul><ul><li>NOAH </li></ul><ul><li>Royal Society </l...
Greenhouse Gases CH4 CO2 PFCs HFCs SF6 310x 11,000 x 12,000 x 19 x CO2 Equivalents is Gold Standard 22,000 x N20
Long Term Trend
Temperatures Rising
?
Other Global Problems <ul><li>Ozone hole </li></ul><ul><li>Acid Rain </li></ul>
Ozone Hole
Ozone Hole <ul><li>Montreal Protocol </li></ul>
Acid Rain Acid Rain
Acid Rain - Cap and Trade Further Reductions Cap
SO2 Emissions in Europe
Acid Rain - SO2 Market
Acid Rain Acid Rain Declines Because of Successful SO2 Reductions Market
Mission Po$$ible !
Dimensions
Size of Global Footprint <ul><li>What is a carbon footprint? </li></ul><ul><li>36+ BN tons of CO2  equivalents  emitted </...
Per Capital Footprints
Where is it Coming From? Prepared by Robert A Rohde  Data source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Cumulative Footprints
Question Do you think the USA should take responsibility and accept a binding carbon cap? 1) yes 2) no 3) maybe
Let’s Get Personal
Size Your Carbon Footprint calculate your personal carbon footprint Home sq. meter (00)  ____  x 6 =  _______ You drive km...
Question How large is your personal carbon footprint? 1) 15 2) 25 3) 50 4) 100+ tons
GCC  CO2 Footprints Country Tons Per Capita UAE 150M 38 Qatar 53M 69 Kuwait 100M 38 KSA 300 M 13 USA 6,600 M 20 India 1,40...
Question Should GCC states consider having a carbon cap? 1) yes 2) no 3) maybe
How Much CO2 in a Gallon? <ul><li>Pounds weight of a gallon 6.3  </li></ul><ul><li>% carbon molecules 87% </li></ul><ul><l...
Some Basic Measures <ul><li>One gallon generates 20 lbs </li></ul><ul><li>If car gets 20 mpg-  1 lb. of CO2 per mile </li>...
Policies & Markets
Kyoto Market
Kyoto Market - Capped Buyers
Kyoto Market - Capped Buyers
Centralized Policy Creates  Market Incentives for Decentralized Solutions
Economic Cost <ul><li>In 50 years… </li></ul><ul><li>Inaction could cost 20% of GDP </li></ul><ul><li>50% chance of 5 degr...
Kyoto Post 2012?
How to Create Carbon Credits
Creating Offsets <ul><li>Govs allocate allowances (NAP) </li></ul><ul><li>Co A reduces below it’s target </li></ul><ul><li...
How to Create Offsets JI CDM Allowances from
Profiting from Credits <ul><li>Trading </li></ul><ul><li>Investing </li></ul><ul><li>Creating Offsets (Certificates) </li>...
How to Trade Carbon Credits
Two Types of Trading <ul><li>Exchange traded (allowances) </li></ul>Exchange Buyer Seller $ $ Allowance Allowance Buyer Se...
Carbon Market CDM CERs VERs EUAs CA CCX RGGI .14 BN Clean  Development  Mechanism GCC, etc. $24 BN $5.2 BN Trading Volumes...
Carbon Credits Value? EUA CO2 price Nov 19, 2007 = 22.5 Euro or $33
How to Create Carbon Credits
OTC Project Development <ul><li>Developer </li></ul>Buyer Seller $ Carbon Offset Over the Counter (OTC) Example $ and Offs...
CDM Project Approval Flow
unfccc.int
Approved UNFCC Methods <ul><li>Windfarms </li></ul><ul><li>Landfill Methane </li></ul><ul><li>Farm methane </li></ul><ul><...
Leading CDM Projects
CDM by Countries
CDM Market Participants
Regional Kyoto - DNA’s <ul><li>UAE - Mr. Majid Ali Al Mansouri, Env. Agency </li></ul><ul><li>Qatar - Mr. Khalid Ghanim Al...
Sample  Projects <ul><li>Landfill waste </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural methane caputre </li></ul><ul><li>Sewage plants </l...
Pak Arab Fertilizer  Analysis <ul><li>Ammonium Fertilizer Plan </li></ul><ul><li>Also make nitric acid </li></ul><ul><li>P...
Sequestration  Project Analysis <ul><li>Gas sequestration </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Petronas Bintulu, Malaysia </li></ul></ul>...
Wind Farm Analysis
Wind Farm Analysis
Gas Recovery <ul><li>Al Shaheen -Oil Field </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Qatar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gas from oil field was f...
Other Ways to Make Money <ul><li>Green products </li></ul><ul><li>Zero Carbon Projects </li></ul><ul><li>Green Cities </li...
Green Products
IT Energy Savings <ul><li>Computer monitor shut offs </li></ul><ul><li>Consider energy usage at purchase time </li></ul><u...
STARFISH?
How to Create a GCC Market   Can the DIFC  Create a Carbon Exchange?
Ingredients for Exchange <ul><li>Binding Cap </li></ul><ul><li>Local allowances </li></ul><ul><li>Could be unique or linke...
Cap Locally for Exchange <ul><li>Kyoto or regional binding cap </li></ul><ul><li>Tradable allowances in region </li></ul><...
Need Caps Globally by 2013 <ul><li>Kyoto or regional binding cap </li></ul><ul><li>Tradable allowances in region </li></ul...
Dubai and DIFC  Can Help Lead the Way… …in carbon projects, capping and trading.
Question Do you think Dubai and DIFC  should help lead the way? 1) yes 2) no 3) maybe
Goals of Session <ul><li>Science </li></ul><ul><li>Dimensions </li></ul><ul><li>Policies & Markets </li></ul><ul><li>How t...
<ul><li>Rod Beckstrom		More info </li></ul><ul><li>www. beckstrom .com     globalwarming.twiki.net  </li></ul>
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DIFC Week - Carbon Markets and Trading

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Presentation given by Rod Beckstrom at DIFC Week event in Dubai on November 19, 2007. Beckstrom is also the co-author of "The Starfish and The Spider: The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations"

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DIFC Week - Carbon Markets and Trading

  1. 1. Carbon Markets & Trading Rod Beckstrom Chairman, TWIKI.NET
  2. 2. Goals of Session <ul><li>Science </li></ul><ul><li>Dimensions </li></ul><ul><li>Policies & Markets </li></ul><ul><li>How to Create Carbon Credits </li></ul><ul><li>How to Trade Carbon Credits </li></ul><ul><li>How to Create a GCC Market </li></ul>
  3. 3. Science
  4. 7. Question <ul><li>What planet taught us about </li></ul><ul><li>global warming? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ceres </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mercury </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mars </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Venus </li></ul></ul>
  5. 8. 96.5% CO2
  6. 10. 0.038% CO2 0.0005 % ^
  7. 11. CO2 Rising <ul><li>CO2 levels </li></ul><ul><li>1830 0.028 % </li></ul><ul><li>0.038% </li></ul><ul><li>0.0005 % ^ annual </li></ul><ul><li>0.085% </li></ul>
  8. 12. CO2 Cycle
  9. 13. Scientific Bodies Concerned <ul><li>NASA </li></ul><ul><li>IPCC </li></ul><ul><li>NOAH </li></ul><ul><li>Royal Society </li></ul><ul><li>Academie de Science </li></ul><ul><li>Science Council of Japan </li></ul><ul><li>EPA </li></ul>
  10. 14. Greenhouse Gases CH4 CO2 PFCs HFCs SF6 310x 11,000 x 12,000 x 19 x CO2 Equivalents is Gold Standard 22,000 x N20
  11. 15. Long Term Trend
  12. 16. Temperatures Rising
  13. 17. ?
  14. 18. Other Global Problems <ul><li>Ozone hole </li></ul><ul><li>Acid Rain </li></ul>
  15. 19. Ozone Hole
  16. 20. Ozone Hole <ul><li>Montreal Protocol </li></ul>
  17. 21. Acid Rain Acid Rain
  18. 22. Acid Rain - Cap and Trade Further Reductions Cap
  19. 23. SO2 Emissions in Europe
  20. 24. Acid Rain - SO2 Market
  21. 25. Acid Rain Acid Rain Declines Because of Successful SO2 Reductions Market
  22. 26. Mission Po$$ible !
  23. 27. Dimensions
  24. 28. Size of Global Footprint <ul><li>What is a carbon footprint? </li></ul><ul><li>36+ BN tons of CO2 equivalents emitted </li></ul><ul><li>Earth can only absorb ˜ 8 BN tons </li></ul><ul><li>6 BN people </li></ul><ul><li>5 - 6 tons per person, on average </li></ul>
  25. 29. Per Capital Footprints
  26. 30. Where is it Coming From? Prepared by Robert A Rohde Data source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
  27. 31. Cumulative Footprints
  28. 32. Question Do you think the USA should take responsibility and accept a binding carbon cap? 1) yes 2) no 3) maybe
  29. 33. Let’s Get Personal
  30. 34. Size Your Carbon Footprint calculate your personal carbon footprint Home sq. meter (00) ____ x 6 = _______ You drive km (000) ____ 0.25 = _______ You fly km (000) ____ x .2 = _______ Your Total Tons ________
  31. 35. Question How large is your personal carbon footprint? 1) 15 2) 25 3) 50 4) 100+ tons
  32. 36. GCC CO2 Footprints Country Tons Per Capita UAE 150M 38 Qatar 53M 69 Kuwait 100M 38 KSA 300 M 13 USA 6,600 M 20 India 1,400 M 1
  33. 37. Question Should GCC states consider having a carbon cap? 1) yes 2) no 3) maybe
  34. 38. How Much CO2 in a Gallon? <ul><li>Pounds weight of a gallon 6.3 </li></ul><ul><li>% carbon molecules 87% </li></ul><ul><li>Pounds of carbon ________ </li></ul><ul><li>Multiply by CO2 weight 44/12 3.7 </li></ul><ul><li>Pounds per gallon ________ </li></ul>
  35. 39. Some Basic Measures <ul><li>One gallon generates 20 lbs </li></ul><ul><li>If car gets 20 mpg- 1 lb. of CO2 per mile </li></ul><ul><li>110 gallons = 1 metric ton of CO2 </li></ul><ul><li>500 tons per $1M production is global average </li></ul><ul><li>890 bls of CO2 per barrel of oil </li></ul><ul><li>1.7 lbs of CO2 from Kwh electricity </li></ul>
  36. 40. Policies & Markets
  37. 41. Kyoto Market
  38. 42. Kyoto Market - Capped Buyers
  39. 43. Kyoto Market - Capped Buyers
  40. 44. Centralized Policy Creates Market Incentives for Decentralized Solutions
  41. 45. Economic Cost <ul><li>In 50 years… </li></ul><ul><li>Inaction could cost 20% of GDP </li></ul><ul><li>50% chance of 5 degree Celsius rise </li></ul><ul><li>Cost of balancing would cost only 1% </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sir Nicholas Stern </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>UK Economist </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>October 2006, Stern Report </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  42. 46. Kyoto Post 2012?
  43. 47. How to Create Carbon Credits
  44. 48. Creating Offsets <ul><li>Govs allocate allowances (NAP) </li></ul><ul><li>Co A reduces below it’s target </li></ul><ul><li>Sells extra offsets to Co. B </li></ul>
  45. 49. How to Create Offsets JI CDM Allowances from
  46. 50. Profiting from Credits <ul><li>Trading </li></ul><ul><li>Investing </li></ul><ul><li>Creating Offsets (Certificates) </li></ul>
  47. 51. How to Trade Carbon Credits
  48. 52. Two Types of Trading <ul><li>Exchange traded (allowances) </li></ul>Exchange Buyer Seller $ $ Allowance Allowance Buyer Seller $ Carbon Offset Over the Counter (OTC)
  49. 53. Carbon Market CDM CERs VERs EUAs CA CCX RGGI .14 BN Clean Development Mechanism GCC, etc. $24 BN $5.2 BN Trading Volumes from World Bank 2007 April report. JI ERUs .03 BN California For Kyoto Capped Countries Only Voluntary EEX EUAs Futures
  50. 54. Carbon Credits Value? EUA CO2 price Nov 19, 2007 = 22.5 Euro or $33
  51. 55. How to Create Carbon Credits
  52. 56. OTC Project Development <ul><li>Developer </li></ul>Buyer Seller $ Carbon Offset Over the Counter (OTC) Example $ and Offsets UNFCC Project Approvals Advisor
  53. 57. CDM Project Approval Flow
  54. 58. unfccc.int
  55. 59. Approved UNFCC Methods <ul><li>Windfarms </li></ul><ul><li>Landfill Methane </li></ul><ul><li>Farm methane </li></ul><ul><li>Sewage plants </li></ul><ul><li>Cogeneration </li></ul><ul><li>Solar </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizer plants - N2O </li></ul><ul><li>For a full list see unfccc.int </li></ul>
  56. 60. Leading CDM Projects
  57. 61. CDM by Countries
  58. 62. CDM Market Participants
  59. 63. Regional Kyoto - DNA’s <ul><li>UAE - Mr. Majid Ali Al Mansouri, Env. Agency </li></ul><ul><li>Qatar - Mr. Khalid Ghanim Al-Ali, Env. & Nat. Res. </li></ul><ul><li>Bahrain - Prof. Dr. Ismail Mohammed Al Madani, Env. and Wildlife Protection </li></ul><ul><li>Kuwait - Dr. Jasem M. Al-Besharah, EPA </li></ul><ul><li>Egypt - Dr. El-Sayed Sabry Mansour, EEAA </li></ul><ul><li>Pakistan - Mr. Kiyaz Hayat, Ministry of Env. </li></ul><ul><li>Kingdom of Saudi Arabia- not appointed </li></ul><ul><li>Full DNA list: http://cdm.unfccc.int/DNA/index.html </li></ul>
  60. 64. Sample Projects <ul><li>Landfill waste </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural methane caputre </li></ul><ul><li>Sewage plants </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Solar electric </li></ul><ul><li>Solar thermal </li></ul>
  61. 65. Pak Arab Fertilizer Analysis <ul><li>Ammonium Fertilizer Plan </li></ul><ul><li>Also make nitric acid </li></ul><ul><li>Privatized 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>Methodology AM0028 ver. 1 - Catalytic N2O destruction in the tail gas of Nitric Acid Plants </li></ul><ul><li>1.0 M tons of CO2 equivalent </li></ul><ul><li>Phase I live April 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>400K Tons per annum </li></ul><ul><li>Upfront Cost $10M, $1M per annum energy </li></ul><ul><li>Value? </li></ul><ul><li>Could be valid for 21 years </li></ul>
  62. 66. Sequestration Project Analysis <ul><li>Gas sequestration </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Petronas Bintulu, Malaysia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>White Tiger Oil field, Vietnam </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BP, Statoil, Sonatrach, Salah, Algeria </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Qatar Gas </li></ul></ul>
  63. 67. Wind Farm Analysis
  64. 68. Wind Farm Analysis
  65. 69. Gas Recovery <ul><li>Al Shaheen -Oil Field </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Qatar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gas from oil field was flared </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Now used for power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2.5 M tons annual CERs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Contra Case </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Abu Dhabi methane flaring </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No registration- no credits </li></ul></ul>
  66. 70. Other Ways to Make Money <ul><li>Green products </li></ul><ul><li>Zero Carbon Projects </li></ul><ul><li>Green Cities </li></ul><ul><li>Green Buildings </li></ul><ul><li>Conservation </li></ul><ul><li>Green Portfolios </li></ul><ul><li>Consulting businesses </li></ul><ul><li>Add green services </li></ul>
  67. 71. Green Products
  68. 72. IT Energy Savings <ul><li>Computer monitor shut offs </li></ul><ul><li>Consider energy usage at purchase time </li></ul><ul><li>Power management for all systems </li></ul><ul><li>Virtualization software reduces servers </li></ul><ul><li>New power supplies </li></ul><ul><li>More videoconferencing, less travel </li></ul><ul><li>More in each specific industry </li></ul><ul><li>Calculate CO2 from Kwh bills </li></ul>
  69. 73. STARFISH?
  70. 74. How to Create a GCC Market Can the DIFC Create a Carbon Exchange?
  71. 75. Ingredients for Exchange <ul><li>Binding Cap </li></ul><ul><li>Local allowances </li></ul><ul><li>Could be unique or linked market </li></ul><ul><li>Could also be a Kyoto cap </li></ul><ul><li>Thereby develop local intellectual capita </li></ul><ul><li>Dubai, UAE or another state could become regional leader </li></ul>
  72. 76. Cap Locally for Exchange <ul><li>Kyoto or regional binding cap </li></ul><ul><li>Tradable allowances in region </li></ul><ul><li>Active NGO’s </li></ul><ul><li>Active carbon market participants </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Developers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consultants </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Brokers/bankers </li></ul></ul>
  73. 77. Need Caps Globally by 2013 <ul><li>Kyoto or regional binding cap </li></ul><ul><li>Tradable allowances in region </li></ul><ul><li>Active NGO’s </li></ul><ul><li>Active carbon market participants </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Developers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consultants </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Brokers/bankers </li></ul></ul>To Solve Our Global Problem
  74. 78. Dubai and DIFC Can Help Lead the Way… …in carbon projects, capping and trading.
  75. 79. Question Do you think Dubai and DIFC should help lead the way? 1) yes 2) no 3) maybe
  76. 80. Goals of Session <ul><li>Science </li></ul><ul><li>Dimensions </li></ul><ul><li>Policies & Markets </li></ul><ul><li>How to Create Carbon Credits </li></ul><ul><li>How Carbon Trading Works </li></ul><ul><li>How to Create a GCC Market </li></ul>
  77. 81. <ul><li>Rod Beckstrom More info </li></ul><ul><li>www. beckstrom .com globalwarming.twiki.net </li></ul>

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