Beckstrom's Law - The Economics Of Networks Defcon July 31, 2009

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Beckstrom's Law presented at Defcon conference. Presents model for valuing any network, as well as enhanced models for the "Network Effect" and the "Inverse Network Effect." Presented by Rod Beckstrom July 31, 2009 in Las Vegas.

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  • Beckstrom's Law - The Economics Of Networks Defcon July 31, 2009

    1. 1. The Economics of Networks (and Beckstrom’s Law) Rod Beckstrom CEO and President 31July 2009 DEFCON Las Vegas 27Apr08
    2. 2. 29Jul09 Addressing the Internet
    3. 3. 29Jul09 Participating in the Internet eco-system and supporting it
    4. 4. Do network economics matter? Value of network to one user Total value of a network Security economics Security risk management Hacker economics Economics of deterrence Supply chain incentives Economics of Internet protocols (architecture) Economics of outages Economics of resiliency (correlation of losses) 29Jul09
    5. 5. Metcalfe’s Law 29Jul09 fax networks is larger today than ever, but less valuable because of substitutes such as email, Fedex, UPS, PDF’s, web, etc., thus the model does not hold Where: V = value of network j n = the number of end points or nodes p = some constant V j = n 2 * p Historic Network Value Models
    6. 6. t not n ! 29Jul09
    7. 7. t not n ! 29Jul09
    8. 8. New Model: Beckstrom’s Law Economics of Networks 29Jul09 The value of a network equals the net value added to each user’s transactions, summed for all users.
    9. 9. V i,j = ΣB - ΣC Where: V = value of network j to user i B = the benefit value of all transactions C = the cost of all transactions Value of a Network to One User New Network Model 29Jul09
    10. 10. V = B - C V = $26 - $16 V = $10 If it costs $26 to buy the book in a store or $16 to buy it over the Internet, including shipping, the net value is $10. Online Book Purchase Case 29Jul09
    11. 11. V[j] = ΣV i,j = ΣB - ΣC Network Value is Summation of Value to All Users New Network Model 29Jul09
    12. 12. 29J ul09 Where: ΣV i,j = value of a network j to all users V i,j = net present value of all transactions to user i with respect to network j, over any time period j = identifies one network i = one user of the network B i,k = the benefit value of transaction k to individual i C i,l = the cost of transaction l to individual i r k and r l = the discount rate of interest to the time of transaction k or l t k or t l = the elapsed time in years to transaction k or l n,m,p = maximum number of individuals i and transactions k and l Beckstrom’s Law New Network Model
    13. 13. The “Network Effect” 29Jul09
    14. 14. For those networks where… The “Network Effect” 29Jul09 More users add to more total value
    15. 15. From the current network member perspective The “Network Effect” 29Jul09
    16. 16. For those networks where… The “Inverse Network Effect” 29Jul09 More users reduce total value <
    17. 17. From the current network member perspective The “Inverse Network Effect” 29Jul09 <
    18. 18. Private Golf Clubs AARP Support groups Costco FaceBook Coops YPO Your social networks Twitter Your customers Internet … Examples 29Jul09
    19. 19. Where: SI = Security Investments L = Losses C’ = C – SI – L (all costs except SI & L) V = B - C’ - SI - L Security Model V = B - C Economics of Security Basic Model V = B - C 29Jul09
    20. 20. Minimize Security Costs = SI + L The Fundamental Security Risk Management Function Economics of Security 29Jul09
    21. 21. Loss $ Security Investment $ 0 Pareto Chart of Best Security Investments Against Losses (hypothetical curve) Economics of Security 29Jul09
    22. 22. Loss $ Security Investment $ 0 Different security technology investments can be ranked in order of payoff (reduced losses per dollar of investment). IP Patch IDS DLP Economics of Security 29Jul09
    23. 23. Loss $ Better network protocols can drive Loss function down for most or all users. Security Investment $ 0 Economics of Protocols 29Jul09
    24. 24. Minimize the Hacker’s Gain Minimize V = B - C’ - SI - L For example, by seeking to reduce their Benefit or take. Increase their operating costs (making stealing more difficult). Force them to invest more in their own Security Investments (making it harder for them not to get caught). Increase their losses by improving enforcement and increasing penalties and imprisonment, for example. Economics of Deterrence 29Jul09
    25. 25. Value of network to individuals Total value of a network Security economics Security risk management Hacker economics Economics of deterrence Supply chain incentives Economics of Internet protocols (architecture) Economics of outages Economics of resiliency (correlation of losses) Economics of Networks 29Jul09
    26. 26. <ul><li>Be used to calculate or determine: </li></ul><ul><li>The value of a network </li></ul><ul><li>How to optimize a company’s security investments </li></ul><ul><li>How to optimize a country’s security investments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rigorously compare alternative security investments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The economics of hacking </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The incredible leverage of supply chain hacking </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Incentivize discovering supply chain hacks </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Incentivize better supply chain testing </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The value of re-architecting the Internet </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Analyze internet business models </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Value of having a diversity of networks </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Value of having redundant protocols within a network </li></ul></ul></ul>The Model Can . . . 29Jul09
    27. 27. Granular Scalable Subset-able Accurate Similar to P&L concepts Leverages cost accounting techniques Testable As simple as it can be but no simpler A foundation for derivative models Beckstrom’s Law Benefits 29Jul09
    28. 28. You have to get the data or estimate it Beckstrom’s Law Downside 29Jul09
    29. 29. t not n ! 29Jul09
    30. 30. Questions 29Jul09
    31. 31. Acknowledgments for assistance in editing/reviewing the models: Dr. Douglass Maughan, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Dr. Gary Becker, Senior Economist, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Dr. John “Matty” Mathieson, Stanford Research Institute Dr. Patrick Lincoln, Stanford Research Institute 29Jul09
    32. 32. Thank You ! twitter.com/rodbeckstrom 29Jul09

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