A new Telecom World unfolding - The IPv6 factor
Director – IP Strategy
First Thailand IPv6 Summit
May 2-4, 2006 - Bangkok
Why the acceleration?
Some perceived drivers
VSNL - Teleglobe and IPv6
A View from the Top
“ With the internet and the proliferation of semiconductors, you’ll end up with
trillions of things connected – not just individuals but cars, roads, homes,
appliances, health-care data, and pacemakers. All of these things are
available today that weren’t available in the past. In a way, everybody
needs a challenge or the threat to get them going. The threat is that all
these competitors are coming on-line that have global capabilities. They’re
all enabled by these technologies… »
Samuel J. Palmisano, Chairman IBM, interviewed by Business Week - April 3th
2006 North-American issue, pp 52-53
Why the Acceleration?
A telecom Industry desperate for stability and renewed revenue growth:
Coming out of a major recession; relentless technological change; changing
regulatory environments; consolidation; globalization.
Consensus : the next multibillion revenue opportunities imply IP based
network convergence, multi-functional end-devices, always on, always p2p
reachable, mobile and endowed with end to end security.
Intense pressure on existing carrier business models with the advent of
VoIP and new broadband wireless technologies
Visions of ubiquitous communications between billions of devices ranging
from home networks to global sensor and RFID networks.
Convergence and disintermediation
Multiplicity of convergences
Network: IP convergence
Access: Fixed and wireless convergence
End device: multimedia convergence
Service provision: convergence (triple, quad play)
Applications, from voice to MP3 download to home security to TV distribution,
independent of telecomm infrastructure provider
Results in current debate on “network neutrality”
Blurring distribution models
The old order: discrete and distinct
Telecom: voice, fixed and mobile, data, internet
Broadcasters : radio, TV
Print and publishing
Production control, goods tracking
Services: banking, travel, auctions, sales of goods
Some pitfalls of IP convergence
The internet currently suffers from:
Uneven distribution & looming shortage of IP addresses
Inadequacy for mobile networking
Unability for plug an play reconfiguration
Elusive quality: QoS not on par with TDM & ATM
Major network and user security issues:
Bad guy tricks: phishing, pharming, bots, typosquatting…
Internet fraud complaints in the US: from 48,252 in 2002 to 207,449 in 2004(*)
After Spam : Spim (Instant messaging Spam) and Spit (Internet Telephony spam)
(*): Internet Crime Complaint Center, as reported by BW May 30 2005 issue
IP convergence: the IPv6 factor
Solves address shortage Neighbour discovery
Restores p2p Ad-Hoc networking
Mobility Home networks
Better spectrum utilization Plug and play
Better battery life! Auto configuration
Security Permanent addresses
Ipsec mandatory Identity (CLID)
Multicast Traceability (RFID)
Sensors and monitoring
Better QoS (flow labels)
ADSL, cable, 3G, Wi-Fi, Wi-Max provide the always-on
IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence
To make a commercial reality of the IP convergence vision is impossible
without moving to a new IP version
The current one (IPv4) deployed on 01 /01/1983 is totally inadequate to meet
current network needs.
IPv6 is the only way out of current IP address shortage for major developing
economies such as China and India.
Essential for mobility, improved security and QoS
Essential for plug and play home networking, mobile ad-hoc networks
(MANET’s) and networks in motion (NEMO’s)
Critical component for session and event based billing in the 3G and B3G
(Beyond 3G) world based on IMS and SIP.
One of the building stones toward ITU-T defined NGN
Some New Telecom World drivers
Disruptive on most existing carrier
Voice, radio, TV over IP
Massive multiplayer games
RFID, control and sensor networks
Critical mass of:
digital communicating end-user devices
high speed always on access
Research and Education networks
National/regional policies and economic weight
17 billion Networkable Devices!
Sun Microsystems estimates that including sensor and RFID networks the
world could have a trillion communicating devices in a decade!
Mobile communications: What a market!
As reported by 3G Americas www.3gamericas.org 2 billion devices
was reached sometime mid 2005!
IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence
After the European bidding excesses and initial equipment delays 3G
finally take off
Number of 3G/UMTS users reached 35 million by mid 2005; 50 million
units were forecasted by end 2005 !
Saturation in mobile voice stimulates interest in « rich media » high speed
applications, seamless wireless mobility, location based services
information. The MNO dilemma is the risk of becoming a bit pipe implied
by the move to data.
IMS (Internet Multimedia subsystem) is key to the billing of these new
services services and IPv6 essential for a scaleable IMS approach.
Mobile: Japan shows the way
Graph by CIAJ (Communication & Information Association of Japan)
IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence
Disruptive effect of the Skype phenomenon :
150 million downloads, 8 billion plus minutes,
1.5 million users on-line after two years.
In North-America: 400+ providers
Japan’s Yahoo BB is the biggest VoIP provider
Market will really explode with dual wi-fi/cellphone end-devices
What role for Google, Microsoft, E-Bay, Apple iPhone?
Q1 05 PBX shipments: 15% pure IP (rev. +36%) , 57% hybrid, 28% TDM ;
2008 forecast: 28% IP, 67% hybrid, 8% TDM (Infonetics)
IP centrex market starts to take off: perfect match for IPv6
Digital radio, mobile TV and IPTV
Other neologisms : podcast(ing) and mobisodes.
Radio delivered by web, satellite and cellphones.
HD-Radio : CD quality sound; digital plus data
alongside existing AM or FM channels.
Barriers to entry to a 21 billion $ industry (in the US) go down;
XM, Sirius, Yahoo, MSN new names in broadcasting.
Mobile TV: Qualcomm MediaFlo vs. Modeo Consortium
Mobile broadcast : Potentially 270 million subs worldwide by 2009
Forecasts of 200 million digital TV’s worldwide by 2007 and 20 million
IPTV subscribers by 2008 (IPTV News)
IBM : 11 datacenters around the world as computing grid
Sun Microsystems; grid on demand service
Globus Consortium with IBM, Sun, Intel etc promote de facto standard
numerous trials in the R&E world
More than 5 million subscribers for most popular titles
Average 20 hours/week on-line! Monthly fee 10 to 15US$
Sales of virtual goods reached US$200 million!
Japan on-line gaming to reach 93.8 billion yen end 2005!
Multiplayer cellphone gaming takes of exponentially
Virtual poker tables, tournaments etc.
Partygaming IPO : US$ 9 billion valuation June 2005
January 2005: The bandwagon started rolling
Wal-Mart Stores and DoD mandatory
RFID support programs started.
Generalized RFID implies terabytes of traffic daily.
RFID for authentication and for traceability: drugs, passports, banknotes,
secure papers, concert entry ticket, casino chips, luggage tags ….
3.1 billion tags for pallets&cases in 2006; by 2008 a US$7.26B market
with 15.3 billion tags for pallets &cases and 6.8 for non retail item level
(luggage etc) 48% Asia, 32 % North America by 2010 (source: IDTechEx
Self organizing sensor networks
Darpa sensit, Smart Dust, motes and follow-up projects
Pervasive computing, context-aware computing etc.
Habitat, water&pollution levels, structural integrity, biomedical
Intel Deep Networking projects: “Locally networking billions of embedded nodes,
driving computing deeper into the infrastructure that surrounds us.”
Intel Mote: “Motes are tiny, self-contained, battery-powered computers with radio
links, which enable them to communicate and exchange data with one another,
and to self-organize into ad hoc networks. Motes form the building blocks of
wireless sensor networks”
Motivation: expand application domains and revenue sources
Multiplayer games (Xbox on-line)
Peer 2 peer ( end of NAT issues)
Mobility (session continuity , mobile VPN, VoIP)
End to end security: temporary addresses and Ipsec
Secure neighbor discovery
Plug and play (instant network)
Microsoft and IPv6 support
Windows XP SP1, PocketPC, CE.NET have an IPv6 stack
Messenger, Windows Media Player, Direct Play, Threedegrees
Windows Vista will have IPv6 as default protocol. Revised release date Q1 2007
The battle for the communicating living-room
Consumer Electronic Show Vegas January 2004 and January 2005
First serious salvos in a titanic battle between the computer industry (Intel,
Microsoft) and the electronics industry (Sony, Philips, Toshiba, Panasonic..)
The essence of the battle is a kind of a home « mediacenter » with all devices
connected in a plug and play mode, preferably wireless.
Consumer Electronic Show january 2006
CEA press-release jan 8th:
“Convergence was a big trend on the show floor in 2006 as traditional product
categories merged together to create unique, multi-functional digital devices.”
Huge stakes: $135 billion consumer electronics market
in the US alone for 2006 (Consumer Electronics Association)
Prevalence of fast digital access
150.6 million subscribers end 2004
up 26.5 million lines in 6 months (source: Point Topic)
200+ million were estimated end 2005
DSL dominates except in North America
Growth continues unabated:
FT: end Q2 2005: 6.4’ subscribers +80% in 1 year
Telefonica: end Q2 2005: 4’ subs +56% in 1 year
UK: high speed internet connections overtake dial-up (June 05)
It took mobile phones 5.5 years to go from 10 to 100 million subscribers
worldwide; Broadband achieved this in 3.5 years.
It took mobile 5.5 years to grow from 10 to 100m worldwide; Broadband
achieved same growth in 3.5 years
BB: Again, Japan shows the way
Utilities are showing a growing interest
Associations in North-America, Europe and Asia
Standardization process accelerates
Products are coming on the market after
around 100 trials in 40 countries
Opens the way to networking for the myriad
home appliances all the way to the individual
Software Defined Radio
SDR promises seamless interoperability across
virtually any wireless standard
Makes software control of operating frequencies and output power
Allows for multimode, multiband, multifunctional devices to be adapted,
updated or enhanced by software
Mandated by the US DoD under JTRS (Joint Tactical Radio System)
European Union formed a very active SDR group: E2R (End 2 End
Seen as essential for B3G (Beyond 3G)
Standard disputes underway
Wi-Fi, Wi-Max, ZigBee, Mobile-Fi, Ultrawideband….
Disruptive even if a fraction
of these market projections
Constant re-evaluation of
current business models both
for access and service
revenues is essential.
Business Week, April 26th 2004
Wi-Fi and Wi-Max
120 million Wi-Fi chipsets shipped in 2005
100,000 public hotspots reached, 37K in the USA
(Jiwire study, reported in Computerworld January 23, 2006)
Potentially disruptive; rival for fixed BB and 3G?
Intel Wi-Max ready chipset started shipping
“We want to enable the next billion broadband users”
(Ron Peck, Intel director marketing WiMax, quoted in C|net apr 18th)
$250+ per access down to $50 by 2008 – price level needed for generalized inclusion
in laptops, cellphones etc.
Deployments announced and starting:
Clearwire, Speakeasy, AT&T, Qwest, Korea’s Wibro
Jan 2006: first WiMax Forum certified products
R&E networks broke the IPv6 chicken and egg dilemma
All major R&E networks are dual stack
Next frontier: ultra high bandwidth communication
with projects such as GLIF
US DoD decision to mandate IPv6 support was major catalyst in the US
Resulted in Moonv6 test network
Australian, Canadian, German,Japanese, UK and other defense ministries
plan for IPv6
NATO Interoperable Networks for Secure Communication (INSC) project
has IPv6 focus
Defense mobile networking needs: adhoc networks (MANET), networks in
motion (NEMO) and end system mobility are just not achievable without
IPv6 deployment: The China factor
With the support from the Chinese government, China’s five major Carriers
started to build the CNGI: China Next Generation Internet
Objective stated in 2004: " It will become one of the largest IPv6 networks
in the world by the year of 2005, speeding up the IPv6 R&D in China and
providing tremendous business opportunities for industry global wide. "
CERnet2, China’s new R&E network is IPv6 only and connect 20 cities at
speeds of 2.5 and 10 gigabit per second. Became operational in Dec-04.
Chinese officials restated that they want the Chinese internet to be
completely IPv6 in time for the 2008 Olympics
China 2005 IPv6 Summit Theme was: “IPv6 & CNGI---Innovation in Action,
China 2006 IPv6 Summit Theme is: “IPv6: The New Internet-The Future is
2008 will be showcase for the IP converged Olympics with full deployment
completed in time for the Shanghai 2010 Worldfair
China’s Next Gen Internet
CNGI fund of 1.4 billion Yuan (US$169 million) provided by the NDRC (National
Development Reform Commission) to support six next generation networks
Announced feb 8th 2006
Successor to IT839
Emphasis on ubiquity and on convergence:
Mobile communications and telematics
RFID and USN (ubiquitous sensor network)
T-DMB(Digital Multimedia broadcasting) and DTV
BCN (Broadband Converged Network) includes IPv6
Some of the 2006 objectives;
Commercialization of HSDPA and Wibro
Nation wide DMB and DTV services
BB internet and WLAN controlled household robot
Motivation: grow IT from 13.3% of GDP in 2006 to 21.8% in 2010
Malaysia’s MyICMS 886 blueprint
Launched December 19, 2005
Broadband, 3G, Mobile TV, digital multimedia broadcasting,
digital home, RFID, VoIP, universal service
Three hard: Multi service convergence network, 3G telegram network, satellite
5 soft: IPv6, Information and network security, PC and internet adoption, computer
development and product design and manufacturing
6 Growth areas
Content development, ICT education, set talk boxes, digital radio receivers, VoIP
phones and overseas investment consultancy
Motivation: grow C&M from 9.7% of GDP
India’s 10 point agenda
Declared by the Honourable Minister Maran
1. Convergence of technologies
3. Broadband connectivity
4. Next Mobile Wireless
5. National Internet exchange & Indian Domain Name
7. Security & digital signature
8. Media Lab Asia: seamless communication to rural areas
9. Language computing: given India’s multilingual nature
10.Outsourcing skilled manpower and R&D thrust
Will help grow IT share from current 4.8% of GDP
A high stakes game : Internet Governance!
The internet juggernaut of the last decade took governments, regulators
and carriers by surprise
The looming IP convergence and an era of ubiquitous communications
raises growing concerns about national interests, security, privacy and
IPv6 is a once in a generation opportunity to influence governance and
control of telecommunications
For the first time since IPv4 was introduced in jan1983, the internet is moving
to a new protocol version and address scheme
At stake: a more regulated structured growth versus a liberal highly
creative, competitive more chaotic growth.
July 14th 2005: impasse between the U.N. and the USA.
The U.N. panel presents 4 options including status-quo.
November 2005 WSIS conference in Tunis: compromise reached
VSNL & IPv6
or ISP or ISP
IP Convergence requires seamless connectivity
Wholesale Data | Global Footprint
Wholesale Data | IP Backbone
Some concluding thoughts
What will the new telecom world we are creating bring?
Homes on-line: triple or quad play; home gateways for work, entertainment,
security and monitoring.
Goods on-line: tagging of practically everything
Revenues on-line: whole industries attracted by the vortex
Nations on-line: prerequisite to compete and generate wealth in
a increasingly global economy.
Humans on-line: we will be networks in motion moving around carrying some
terabytes of information and communicating with the rest of the world at gigabit
Our brains on-line?
IPv6 will be a small but essential cog in this big wheel.
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