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Spectrum Breakfast Seminar The Future of TV'


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Spectrum Breakfast Seminar The Future of TV'

  1. 1. Spectrum Breakfast Seminar ‘The Future of TV’ Tuesday 19 th June, 2007
  2. 2. Spectrum Breakfast Seminar The Future of TV <ul><li>Open 8.00am </li></ul><ul><li>Welcome Daniel Osmer, Managing Partner, Spectrum </li></ul><ul><li>Introduction Graham Lovelace, Event Moderator </li></ul><ul><li>Presentations Guest Speakers, Q&A and Panel Discussion </li></ul><ul><li>Close 10.00am </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>Graham Lovelace MD, Lovelace Consulting
  3. 3. Guest speakers David Hulbert CEO <ul><li>‘ enabling television’s next revolution’ </li></ul>‘ the case for mobile video’’ ‘ new distribution, same business’ <ul><li>Linda Summers </li></ul><ul><li>Head of Strategic Development </li></ul>Jeremy Flynn CEO and Founder, D2See
  4. 4. The Future of Television David Hulbert CEO
  5. 6. Overview <ul><li>The Television business system: </li></ul><ul><li>Television is the encrypted or free-to-air (electronic) delivery </li></ul><ul><li>of video for personal and small group use (in the home) </li></ul><ul><li>Television is a long-cycle (several years) business, </li></ul><ul><li>and is slow to change. </li></ul>Storage Content Pipe Presentation & Selection Viewing Platform
  6. 7. Content <ul><li>Limited volume </li></ul><ul><li>Risky </li></ul><ul><li>The long tail? </li></ul>USA example - $130+ billion revenue - 40% spent on production - $2+ million per hour - 40-50 average lifetime repeats 100-200 18 hour “ channels” <ul><li>most creative endeavours fail </li></ul><ul><li>ars longa, vita brevis </li></ul><ul><li>your holiday videos are just holiday videos </li></ul><ul><li>skew towards blockbusters </li></ul><ul><li>from internet success to a recording contract </li></ul>
  7. 8. 3½ pipes - natural monopolies all <ul><li>DTH satellite </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>wide coverage </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>low marginal access cost </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>business focus </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Cable </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(still) the best technology </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>back channel </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>multiple play </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Telephone wire </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>universal coverage and relationships </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>multiple play </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Terrestrial </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>expensive </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>limited capacity </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>technology dead end </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>An alliance of convenience between dirigistes, freeriders and opportunists
  8. 9. Selection <ul><li>Push towards more choice and fragmentation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Linear channels multiplexes, timeshifts, SVOD </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Set top box PVR, remote services, multiple access points </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monthly subscription à la carte, VOD, micropayments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TV listings epg, personalised channels, directed search </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economics of bundling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need for content creators to reduce risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transaction and selection costs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low cost (and importance?) of TV </li></ul></ul>Predictable, simple, consistent packages with buy through
  9. 10. Platforms - not just ‘pipes & content’ <ul><li>Simple concept, but difficult to execute </li></ul><ul><ul><li>one-stop-shop for full range of TV (and other services) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>reliable, upgradeable technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>simple pricing and billing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ two ring” customer service </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Simple economics, with rigorous consequences </li></ul><ul><ul><li>subscriber base and growth rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>churn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>cost per acquisition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ARPU and gross margin </li></ul></ul>
  10. 11. My predictions <ul><li>Does TV have a future? </li></ul><ul><li>Do we know what it will be like? </li></ul><ul><li>Are we there yet? </li></ul>…… .probably….. …… .yes and no….. …… .it will take longer than you think…..
  11. 12. The Future of Television David Hulbert CEO
  12. 13. Panel Discussion <ul><li>Questions raised by the Audience </li></ul><ul><li>Bit torrent – how will we deal with this?? </li></ul><ul><li>Why should I have to pay for TV on any other device – it’s usually free?? </li></ul><ul><li>Discussion re: SlingMedia technology </li></ul><ul><li>Discussion re: BT Vision </li></ul><ul><li>Question re: rate of adoption and impact of new vision imaging technology </li></ul>
  13. 14. IPTV Guide IPTV Guide Delivering audio and video over broadband William Cooper Graham Lovelace Published by informitv in association with Lovelace Consulting December 2006 Download your copy today