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Ross O'Brien

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Ross O'Brien

  1. 1. The Future of Access Ross O’Brien Director, Hong Kong Corporate Network [email_address] GK3 Kuala Lumpur 13 November 2008
  2. 2. A world earns with its feet… <ul><li>3% of the world’s population are global migrants </li></ul><ul><li>Risk takers—and early adopters—in the extreme </li></ul><ul><ul><li>redefining global entrepreneurialism through technology adoption </li></ul></ul><ul><li>… and spends with its phones </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile commerce emerges as the developing world’s true dot-com revolution </li></ul><ul><li>US$10bn/yr remitted home to the Philippines, mostly through mobiles </li></ul>
  3. 3. Light touch or iron fist? In key sectors, India’s liberalization is emulating China’s command economy growth Mobile accounts per 100 population Average monthly new mobile subscriptions millions Source: COAI, Marbridge Consulting 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 India China 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2005 2006 3Q2007 India China
  4. 4. E-Commerce with Chinese characteristics <ul><li>B2C and C2C models are mixed </li></ul><ul><li>50m online consumers, spending more than they do at Wal-Mart </li></ul><ul><li>But the Internet is still government property </li></ul><ul><ul><li>China Mobile effectively ‘owns’ 90% of mobile Internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will a 3G launch (when, if) break China Mobile’s Internet control? </li></ul></ul>China Mobile WAP service providers: Monthly revenues, 2007 (RMB m) ¥ 0 ¥ 10 ¥ 20 ¥ 30 ¥ 40 ¥ 50 ¥ 60 March April May June Source: Pacific Epoch China Mobile introduces data usage charge ‘warning’ pages for click-through surfers
  5. 5. More IP, less TV <ul><li>IPTV can’t go ‘head-to-head’ with traditional pay TV </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IPTV operators need to extend into e-commerce and other Internet-based services </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Early IPTV Adopters think out of the (set-top) box </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PCCW extending into movie ticket sales, new interactive services beyond premium television </li></ul></ul>Pay as you grow Asian TV subscribers Source: CASBAA, CMMI, EIU, iSuppli 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 IPTV Pay TV

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