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ANTICIPATING THE BOTTLENECK looking at bandwidth usage five years forward IPTV World at NAB 2007 Marty Stein Motorola, Inc...
DIGITAL CONTENT SOURCES ARE MULTIPLYING… Parks Associates, “Connected Entertainment Opportunities in the Home,” Harry Wang...
… AND BECOMING COMMONPLACE Sources:  Forrester Research, Kagan Research, IMS Research and Parks Associates 114.9M total U....
HOUSEHOLD SEGMENTED BY TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION Source:  Parks Associates, “Media Servers: Analysis & Forecasts, p. 2 of Resour...
THE AMERICAN MEDIA DIET Sources:  bar graph from “How the Internet is Changing Consumer Behavior and Expectations,” by Lee...
WHO’S HOGGING THE BANDWIDTH? DATA   (1.5 to 5 Mbps) VOICE (.064 Mbps per stream) VIDEO (6 - 10 Mbps for HD in MPEG-4)
#1 BANDWIDTH USER – VIDEO.  SPECIFICALLY, TV. 24% are repeat buyers 22% are repeat buyers Sources:  Video product projecti...
BANDWIDTH IN THE BACKGROUND – THE DVR +8 HD DVRs begin to oustsell SD DVRs Source:  “The Worldwide Market for Digital Vide...
1 DEVICE ≠ 1 STREAM MLB HD signal MLB MOSAIC SD signal 1 MLB MOSAIC SD signal 2 MLB MOSAIC SD signal 3 EPG interactive tri...
#2 BANDWIDTH USER – DATA +? Sources:  PC data from “The State of Consumers and Technology:  Benchmark 2005” Parks Associat...
“ It used to be that the real heavy users were 2% of our subscriber base, but now we would consider heavy users to be 30 –...
VIDEO IS FUELING DATA DEMANDS Image courtesy of www.ced.com
#3 BANDWIDTH USER - VOICE Source:  “Digital Voice Communications in the Home,” Parks Associates (1Q 2006) +1
+ OTHER CONTRIBUTORS TO BANDWIDTH USAGE +.5
SO HOW MUCH CAPACITY DO WE REALLY NEED?
PEAK BANDWIDTH USAGE BY LAGGARDS (Tiers 0 – 2 = 44%) VOIP just about to hit mainstream with 35M HHs (30.5%) – just shy of ...
PEAK BANDWIDTH USAGE BY  EARLY ADOPTERS (Tiers 3 & 4 = 25%) If 3 TVs on avg. per HH and 1.5 are HDTVs  then at least 1 add...
PEAK BANDWIDTH USAGE BY FRINGE (Tier 5 = 6%) 1.5 HDTV per HH but Tier 5 have highest rate of tech adoption     at least 2...
THE RESULT… 44% of HHs (50.56M) 25% of HHs (28.74M) 6% of HHs (6.87M) Tiers 3 to 5 = 31% of HHs (35.61M) LAGGARDS EARLY AD...
BUT WAIT!  THERE’S MORE… Source are listed in the notes
IN CONCLUSION The number of bandwidth consuming devices are increasing in U.S. households. Media consumption habits are ch...
 
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MotorolaInc_MartyStein.ppt

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MotorolaInc_MartyStein.ppt

  1. 1. ANTICIPATING THE BOTTLENECK looking at bandwidth usage five years forward IPTV World at NAB 2007 Marty Stein Motorola, Inc. April 18, 2007
  2. 2. DIGITAL CONTENT SOURCES ARE MULTIPLYING… Parks Associates, “Connected Entertainment Opportunities in the Home,” Harry Wang ©2006
  3. 3. … AND BECOMING COMMONPLACE Sources: Forrester Research, Kagan Research, IMS Research and Parks Associates 114.9M total U.S. HHs by 2010 97M HDTV HHs 90.4M PC HHs 82.4M HSI HHs 67.5M DVR HHs 34.4M VOIP HHs 48.8M VideoGame Console HHs
  4. 4. HOUSEHOLD SEGMENTED BY TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION Source: Parks Associates, “Media Servers: Analysis & Forecasts, p. 2 of Resource Book 2005 2010 Non-Internet Households Non-Internet Households Laggards Early Adopters Laggards Early Adopters Tier 4 9% 36% Tier 5 5% Tier 0, 9% Tier 1, 13% Tier 2, 16% Tier 3 12% Tier 3 14% Tier 4 11% Tier 5 6% Tier 0, 11% Tier 2, 18% Tier 1, 15% 25%
  5. 5. THE AMERICAN MEDIA DIET Sources: bar graph from “How the Internet is Changing Consumer Behavior and Expectations,” by Lee Rainie, Pew Internet & American Life Project (5/9/06)
  6. 6. WHO’S HOGGING THE BANDWIDTH? DATA (1.5 to 5 Mbps) VOICE (.064 Mbps per stream) VIDEO (6 - 10 Mbps for HD in MPEG-4)
  7. 7. #1 BANDWIDTH USER – VIDEO. SPECIFICALLY, TV. 24% are repeat buyers 22% are repeat buyers Sources: Video product projections from “8 th Annual Household and Teen CE Ownership Study,” CEA Market Research Report (April 2006) p. 13; HDTV sales projections from “The State of High Definition Television,” 6 th Edition, Kagan Research (2006) p. 312 59.8% HD in replacement market 100% HD in replacement market
  8. 8. BANDWIDTH IN THE BACKGROUND – THE DVR +8 HD DVRs begin to oustsell SD DVRs Source: “The Worldwide Market for Digital Video Recorders,” IMS Research (February 2006) p. 85
  9. 9. 1 DEVICE ≠ 1 STREAM MLB HD signal MLB MOSAIC SD signal 1 MLB MOSAIC SD signal 2 MLB MOSAIC SD signal 3 EPG interactive trivia game & streaming stats HD PVR Recording = 8 Mbps =9 Mbps = 17Mbps =17.5Mbps = 18 Mbps
  10. 10. #2 BANDWIDTH USER – DATA +? Sources: PC data from “The State of Consumers and Technology: Benchmark 2005” Parks Associates (July 29, 2005); bandwidth data from “Broadband market Updates: Beond Bandwidth,” Parks Associates (2Q 2006) p. 37 U.S. Households (in millions)
  11. 11. “ It used to be that the real heavy users were 2% of our subscriber base, but now we would consider heavy users to be 30 – 35% of our subscriber base.” – Kevin Crull, President of Residential Services, Bell Canada
  12. 12. VIDEO IS FUELING DATA DEMANDS Image courtesy of www.ced.com
  13. 13. #3 BANDWIDTH USER - VOICE Source: “Digital Voice Communications in the Home,” Parks Associates (1Q 2006) +1
  14. 14. + OTHER CONTRIBUTORS TO BANDWIDTH USAGE +.5
  15. 15. SO HOW MUCH CAPACITY DO WE REALLY NEED?
  16. 16. PEAK BANDWIDTH USAGE BY LAGGARDS (Tiers 0 – 2 = 44%) VOIP just about to hit mainstream with 35M HHs (30.5%) – just shy of adoption by laggard households; still using POTS ≈ 60% of U.S. HHs have DVRs in 2010; 95% of DVR users use them weekly (’06); beware: 37m HHs (32%) have HD DVRs 97M HD HHs (84%) with estimated 1.5 HDTVs per HD HH by 2010; 50% of TV viewing in 2006 is “passive”* 19 Mbps 2006 2010 Mbps SDTV HDTV DVR BROADBAND POTS 82.4M Broadband HHs (≈ 72%) in 2010; Verizon upped its lowest tier of broadband from 5 to 10 Mbps (NY, NJ, CT) in 2006
  17. 17. PEAK BANDWIDTH USAGE BY EARLY ADOPTERS (Tiers 3 & 4 = 25%) If 3 TVs on avg. per HH and 1.5 are HDTVs then at least 1 additional SDTV per HD HH 37M HHs will have HD-DVRs by 2010; 65% of DVRs shipped in 2010 are HD by 2008, 16M people will pay to download or stream movies from the Internet (legally); by 2010, U.S. users downloading more than $3.6B in paid music & movie files Teen internet users in 2006: 31% download video 51% download music 81% play online games 33% upload their own creations 40 Mbps Mbps 2006 2010 SDTV HDTV DVR BROADBAND VOIP & POTS HD DVR PIP 20% of subs consuming 80% of bandwidth in 2006; Bell South announced goal of 12 – 24 Mbps for 50% of its homes by YE ‘07
  18. 18. PEAK BANDWIDTH USAGE BY FRINGE (Tier 5 = 6%) 1.5 HDTV per HH but Tier 5 have highest rate of tech adoption  at least 2 HDTVs (one per member) HD DVRs outselling SD DVRs and dual drives recording multiple streams; rise of passive recording In 2006: 20% of Tier 5 users use P2P daily or almost daily; 60-70% of traffic on BSP networks generated by P2P apps; 6.7M people in U.S. file-sharing w/P2P apps simultaneously at any given time; in 2006, 27% Tier 5 use P2P weekly and 12% daily 58 Mbps Mbps 2006 2010 SDTV HDTV DVR BROADBAND VOIP: VIDEO CONFERENCING HD PIP HD DVR iTV ≈ 10M HHs used video chatting services on a monthly basis (9% of all US HHs) in 2006; VOIP to penetrate ≈ 34.5M HHs by 2010
  19. 19. THE RESULT… 44% of HHs (50.56M) 25% of HHs (28.74M) 6% of HHs (6.87M) Tiers 3 to 5 = 31% of HHs (35.61M) LAGGARDS EARLY ADOPTERS FRINGE USERS 19 40 58
  20. 20. BUT WAIT! THERE’S MORE… Source are listed in the notes
  21. 21. IN CONCLUSION The number of bandwidth consuming devices are increasing in U.S. households. Media consumption habits are changing, driven by trends in high-definition, time-shifting, passive viewing & recording, internet video and on-demand viewing. By 2010, these households will require more than 40 Mpbs of bandwidth and potentially upwards of 60 Mbps. A significant portion of U.S. households (31%) are defined as high bandwidth users. An increase in video consumption is driving an increase in bandwidth usage.

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