IPTV

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IPTV

  1. 1. IPTV IMPACT ON PUBLIC NETWORKS EXPANSION PACK 2007 October 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc – 4641 Montgomery Avenue – Bethesda, MD, 20814 USA Phone: +1 (301) 652-8350 Fax: +1 (301) 657-8084 Toll Free: 1 (888) 652-8382 URL: www.dittberner.com ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc.
  2. 2. 株式会社 データリソース Data Resources, Inc. IPTV 市場調査 2007 年版: 公衆網へのインパクトと 2016 年までの市場予測 IPTV Impact on Public Networks: Expansion Pack 2007 出版社 ディットバーナーアソシエイツ社 出版年月 2007 年 10 月 電子媒体 US$ 10,000 ページ数 180 ページ この調査レポートは、2007 年から 2016 年までの IPTV 機器および加入者収益に影響を与える市場動向、 65 ヶ国の市場セグメント別加入者予測データを提供しています。 主な調査内容 • 加入者予測 • ケーススタディ Telco IPTV • データネットワーク機器ベンダの最新情報 ブロードバンドケーブル • IPTV 向けミドルウェア インターネットテレビ • 機器市場予測 データ機器市場 ヘッドエンド セットトップボックス ミドルウェア ホームネットワーク The report contains subscriber growth forecasts by market segment for 65 national markets, as well as this growth’s impact on the IPTV equipment and subscriber revenue for the years 2007-2016. The financial impact of Internet Television’s disintermediation of the broadband service providers is calculated, exposing the true financial stakes of the “net neutrality” debate. Executive Summary IPTV is the greatest bandwidth-hungry, revenue-generating application in networking today. In “ IPTV Impact on Public Networks: - Expansion Pack 2007,” Dittberner expands its in-depth, ground breaking study of Telco IPTV services, offered by DSL and FTTx service providers, to cover the two other emerging consumer IPTV markets: Broadband Cable and Internet Television. Using Dittberner’s proprietary databases on installed equipment and broadband subscriber growth, the financial and technological impact and interaction of these three market segments on public broadband networks for the next decade is carefully examined and analyzed. The report contains subscriber growth forecasts by market segment for 65 national markets, as well as this growth’s impact on the IPTV equipment and subscriber revenue for the years 2007-2016. The financial impact of Internet Television’s disintermediation of the broadband service providers is calculated, exposing the true financial stakes of the “net neutrality” debate. The relative strength of the Broadband Cable providers compared to the Telco IPTV providers in many of these markets is also laid out, showing why the Telco service providers must move quickly to capitalize on this narrowing window of opportunity. This report is of great interest to service providers, equipment suppliers and public policy makers alike. http://www.dri.co.jp/auto/report/dit/ditiptv200707.htm #701 Sakaeya Bldg., 4-5-6 Akasaka, Minato-ku, Tokyo 107-0052 Japan Tel: +81-3-3582-2531 Fax: +81-3-3582-2861 www.dri.co.jp
  3. 3. IPTV IMPACT ON PUBLIC NETWORKS: EXPANSION PACK 2007 Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 1 I. Introduction ............................................................................................................. 5 A. Introduction............................................................................................................. 5 1. IPTV Services’ Market Segments Covered ........................................................ 5 2. Changes in Scope from Original Report............................................................. 5 3. Future Expansion Pack Scope............................................................................. 5 B. 2006 in review......................................................................................................... 6 1. Subscribers.......................................................................................................... 6 2. Consolidation ...................................................................................................... 7 3. Customer Service ................................................................................................ 7 4. Network Transformation..................................................................................... 8 5. Middleware ......................................................................................................... 8 6. Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 8 C. Dittberner perspective on IPTV Development ....................................................... 9 II. Technology of IPTV Systems.......................................................................... 10 A. Telco IPTV Network Technology ........................................................................ 10 B. Cable IPTV ........................................................................................................... 11 1. VOD on Legacy HFC Networks....................................................................... 12 2. DOCSIS 3.0 Cable IPTV Network ................................................................... 13 C. Internet Television ................................................................................................ 13 D. Dittberner Perspective on the Various IPTV technologies ................................... 14 III. Subscriber Forecasts........................................................................................ 15 A. Introduction........................................................................................................... 15 1. IPTV Market Segmentation .............................................................................. 15 2. Changes in Forecast Basis ................................................................................ 16 3. Change in Forecast Length ............................................................................... 16 B. Total IPTV Subscriber Forecast............................................................................ 16 C. Telco IPTV............................................................................................................ 17 1. Subscribers growth projections 2007-2016 ...................................................... 17 a) Change in Telco IPTV Forecast Basis .......................................................... 17 b) Take-up Rates ............................................................................................... 17 c) Global Subscriber Numbers.......................................................................... 18 d) APAC............................................................................................................ 19 e) EMEA ........................................................................................................... 19 f) NA................................................................................................................. 22 g) CALA............................................................................................................ 23 2. Dittberner Perspective on Telco IPTV.............................................................. 23 D. Cable IPTV Subscriber Forecast........................................................................... 24 1. Subscriber growth projections 2007-2016 ........................................................ 24 a) Basis for Subscriber Projections ................................................................... 24 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. i
  4. 4. b) Take-up Rates ............................................................................................... 24 c) Global Subscriber Numbers.......................................................................... 25 d) APAC............................................................................................................ 26 e) EMEA ........................................................................................................... 27 f) North America .............................................................................................. 29 g) CALA............................................................................................................ 29 2. Dittberner Perspective on Cable IPTV ............................................................. 30 E. Internet Television ................................................................................................ 31 1. Subscriber growth projections 2007-2016 ........................................................ 32 a) Basis for Subscriber Projections ................................................................... 32 b) Internet Television Take Up Rates ............................................................... 34 c) Global Subscriber Numbers.......................................................................... 34 d) APAC............................................................................................................ 35 e) EMEA ........................................................................................................... 36 f) North America .............................................................................................. 38 g) CALA............................................................................................................ 39 2. Dittberner Perspective on Internet Television .................................................. 39 IV. Network Infrastructure Market Forecasts ................................................. 41 A. Incremental Data Equipment Market.................................................................... 41 1. Network Model Architecture ............................................................................ 41 2. Model Town Size.............................................................................................. 42 B. Revenue Forecast .................................................................................................. 43 1. Overall Results.................................................................................................. 43 2. Telco IPTV Network Equipment Revenue Forecast ........................................ 44 3. Cable IPTV Network Equipment Revenue Forecast ........................................ 44 4. Internet Television Network Equipment Revenue Forecast ............................. 45 5. Network Equipment Revenue Forecast for the Top Five Countries................. 46 C. Dittberner perspective on the IPTV Network Equipment Market ........................ 47 V. Video Services Infrastructure Market ......................................................... 48 A. Video Services Infrastructure Cost Model............................................................ 48 1. Total Number of Subscribers ............................................................................ 48 2. Subscribers per Headend................................................................................... 49 3. Headend or Video Serving Office Cost ............................................................ 49 B. Telco IPTV Video Services Infrastructure Market Forecast 2007-2016 .............. 50 C. Cable IPTV Video Services Market Forecast 2007-2016..................................... 50 D. Internet Television Video Service Infrastructure Market Forecast 2007-2016 .... 51 E. Dittberner Perspective on Video Services Infrastructure Market ......................... 52 VI. Set Top Box Market ......................................................................................... 53 A. Pricing Factors ...................................................................................................... 53 1. Market Specific Set-top-Box Price ................................................................... 54 2. SDTV, HDTV and Second TV’s ...................................................................... 55 B. STB Unit Shipment Forecast by Sub-Region ....................................................... 57 1. Total STB Units Shipped by IPTV Service Type............................................. 57 2. Telco IPTV STB Shipments by Sub-Region .................................................... 58 3. Cable IPTV STB Shipments by Sub-Region .................................................... 59 4. Internet Television STB Shipments by Sub-Region......................................... 61 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. ii
  5. 5. 5.Dittberner Perspective on STB Shipments ....................................................... 62 C. STB Market Revenue by IPTV Service................................................................ 62 1. Total STB REVENUE BY IPTV Service Type ............................................... 62 2. Telco IPTV STB Revenue by Sub-Region ....................................................... 63 3. Cable IPTV STB Revenue by Sub-Region....................................................... 64 4. Internet Television STB Revenue by Sub-Region............................................ 65 5. Dittberner perspective ON STB Revenue......................................................... 66 VII. Middleware Market............................................................................................... 67 A. Middleware Pricing Model ................................................................................... 67 B. IPTV Middleware Revenue forecast by IPTV Service......................................... 68 1. Telco IPTV Middleware Revenue Forecast by Sub-region.............................. 68 2. CABLE IPTV Middleware Revenue Forecast by Sub-region.......................... 69 3. Internet Television Middleware Revenue Forecast by Sub-region................... 69 C. Dittberner perspective on the IPTV Middleware Market ..................................... 70 VIII. Home Network Market Forecast........................................................................... 71 A. Home Network Pricing Model.............................................................................. 71 B. Home Networking Subscriber Model ................................................................... 72 C. IPTV Home Network revenue Forecast................................................................ 72 1. Telco IPTV Home Network Revenue by Sub-region ....................................... 73 2. Cable IPTV Home Network Revenue by Sub-region....................................... 74 3. Telco IPTV Home Network Revenue by Sub-region ....................................... 75 D. Dittberner perspective on IPTV Home Network Market...................................... 75 IX. IPTV Impact on Service Providers ............................................................... 76 A. Introduction:.......................................................................................................... 76 B. Revenue Model ..................................................................................................... 76 C. Service Provider IPTV Revenue Forecast ............................................................ 78 1. Telco IPTV Service Provider Revenue by Sub-region ..................................... 79 2. Cable IPTV Service provider Revenue by Sub-region ..................................... 79 3. Internet Television Service provider Revenue by Sub-region......................... 80 4. Dittberner Perspective on IPTV Revenue......................................................... 81 D. IPTV Cost Model.................................................................................................. 81 1. Initial Broadband Network Costs...................................................................... 81 2. IPTV Installation Costs..................................................................................... 82 3. Network Maintenance Costs ............................................................................. 83 4. Content Acquisition Costs ................................................................................ 83 E. IPTV Service Payback Period............................................................................... 83 1. Telco IPTV Payback Period.............................................................................. 84 2. Cable IPTV Payback Period. ............................................................................ 84 3. Internet Television Payback Period. ................................................................. 85 4. IPTV Payback by Access Technology.............................................................. 85 5. Broadband Upgrade to IPTV Payback Period Comparison: AT&T, Verizon, Comcast..................................................................................................................... 86 6. Emerging Market Broadband Services Payback Period ................................... 87 F. Dittberner Perspective on IPTV Impact on Service Providers ............................. 87 X. Case Studies .......................................................................................................... 89 A. Tiscali.................................................................................................................... 89 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. iii
  6. 6. 1. Profile................................................................................................................ 89 2. IPTV Strategy ................................................................................................... 89 3. Network Plans................................................................................................... 89 4. Services/Pricing ................................................................................................ 89 5. Current Status/Future Plans .............................................................................. 90 B. Telecom Egypt ...................................................................................................... 90 1. Profile................................................................................................................ 90 2. IPTV Strategy ................................................................................................... 90 3. Network Plans................................................................................................... 90 4. Services/Pricing ................................................................................................ 90 5. Current Status/Future Plans .............................................................................. 91 C. Comstar MTU ....................................................................................................... 91 1. Profile................................................................................................................ 91 2. IPTV Strategy ................................................................................................... 91 3. Network Plans................................................................................................... 91 4. Services/Pricing ................................................................................................ 91 5. Current Status/Future Plans .............................................................................. 91 D. Magyar Telekom................................................................................................... 92 1. Profile................................................................................................................ 92 2. IPTV Plans ........................................................................................................ 92 3. Network Plans................................................................................................... 92 4. Services/Pricing ................................................................................................ 92 5. Current Status/Future Plans .............................................................................. 92 E. Center Telecom..................................................................................................... 93 1. Profile................................................................................................................ 93 2. IPTV Plans ........................................................................................................ 93 3. Network Plans................................................................................................... 93 4. Services/Pricing ................................................................................................ 93 5. Current Status/Future Plans .............................................................................. 93 F. iNES Telecom....................................................................................................... 93 1. Profile................................................................................................................ 93 2. IPTV Plans ........................................................................................................ 93 3. Network Plans................................................................................................... 94 4. Services/Pricing ................................................................................................ 94 5. Current Status/Future Plans .............................................................................. 94 G. Shanghai Media Group/China Netcom................................................................. 94 1. Profile................................................................................................................ 94 a) Shanghai Media Group ................................................................................. 95 b) China Netcom ............................................................................................... 95 2. IPTV Plans ........................................................................................................ 95 3. Network Plans................................................................................................... 95 4. Services/Pricing ................................................................................................ 95 5. Current Status/Future Plans .............................................................................. 96 H. AKSH Optifibre / Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd........................................... 96 1. Profile................................................................................................................ 96 a) Aksh Optifibre .............................................................................................. 96 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. iv
  7. 7. b) Mahagar Telephone Nigam Ltd .................................................................... 96 2. IPTV Plan.......................................................................................................... 96 3. Network Plans................................................................................................... 97 4. Services/Pricing ................................................................................................ 97 5. Current Status/Future Plans .............................................................................. 97 XI. Update of earlier Case Studies...................................................................... 98 A. Verizon.................................................................................................................. 98 1. Subscriber growth ............................................................................................. 98 2. Change in Schedule/Plans................................................................................. 98 B. AT&T (SBC) ........................................................................................................ 98 1. Subscriber growth ............................................................................................. 98 2. Change in Schedule/Plans................................................................................. 98 C. Belgacom .............................................................................................................. 98 1. Subscriber growth ............................................................................................. 98 2. Change in Schedule/Plans................................................................................. 99 D. PCCW ................................................................................................................... 99 1. Subscriber growth ............................................................................................. 99 2. Change in Schedule/Plans................................................................................. 99 E. British Telecom..................................................................................................... 99 1. Subscriber growth ............................................................................................. 99 2. Change in Schedule/Plans................................................................................. 99 F. FastWeb ................................................................................................................ 99 1. Subscriber growth ............................................................................................. 99 2. Change in Schedule/Plans............................................................................... 100 G. France Telecom................................................................................................... 100 1. Subscriber growth ........................................................................................... 100 2. Change in Schedule/Plans............................................................................... 100 H. Swisscom ............................................................................................................ 100 1. Subscriber growth ........................................................................................... 100 2. Change in Schedule/Plans............................................................................... 100 I. Sasktel ................................................................................................................. 100 1. Subscriber growth ........................................................................................... 100 2. Change in Schedule/Plans............................................................................... 100 XII. Vendor Profiles ................................................................................................... 101 A. Alcatel-Lucent..................................................................................................... 102 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 102 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 102 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 102 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 102 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 102 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 102 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 103 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 103 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 103 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 103 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 103 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. v
  8. 8. 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 103 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 104 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 104 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 104 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 105 B. Arris .................................................................................................................... 106 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 106 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 106 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 106 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 106 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 106 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 106 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 106 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 106 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 106 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 107 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 107 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 107 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 107 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 107 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 107 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 107 C. Calix.................................................................................................................... 108 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 108 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 108 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 108 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 108 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 108 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 108 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 108 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 108 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 109 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 109 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 109 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 109 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 109 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 109 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 109 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 109 D. Cisco Systems ..................................................................................................... 110 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 110 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 110 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 110 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 110 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 110 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 110 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. vi
  9. 9. 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 111 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 111 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 111 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 111 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 111 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 111 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 112 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 112 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 112 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 112 E. ECI Telecom ....................................................................................................... 113 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 113 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 113 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 113 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 113 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 113 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 113 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 114 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 114 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 114 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 114 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 114 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 114 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 114 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 114 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 115 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 115 F. LM Ericsson........................................................................................................ 116 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 116 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 116 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 116 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 116 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 116 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 116 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 117 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 117 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 117 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 117 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 117 G. Espial................................................................................................................... 118 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 118 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 118 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 118 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 118 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 118 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 118 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. vii
  10. 10. 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 118 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 118 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 118 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 119 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 119 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 119 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 119 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 119 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 119 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 119 H. Hitachi Telecom.................................................................................................. 120 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 120 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 120 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 120 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 120 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 120 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 120 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 121 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 121 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 121 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 121 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 121 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 121 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 121 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 121 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 122 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 122 I. Huawei Technologies.......................................................................................... 123 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 123 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 123 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 123 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 123 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 123 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 123 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 123 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 123 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 124 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 124 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 124 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 124 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 124 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 124 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 124 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 125 J. Juniper Networks ................................................................................................ 126 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 126 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. viii
  11. 11. a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 126 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 126 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 126 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 126 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 126 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 126 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 126 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 127 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 127 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 127 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 127 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 127 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 127 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 127 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 127 K. Microsoft............................................................................................................. 128 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 128 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 128 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 128 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 128 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 128 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 128 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 129 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 129 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 129 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 129 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 129 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 129 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 129 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 129 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 130 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 130 L. Minerva ............................................................................................................... 131 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 131 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 131 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 131 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 131 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 131 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 131 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 131 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 131 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 131 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 131 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 132 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 132 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 132 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. ix
  12. 12. b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 132 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 132 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 132 M. Motorola.......................................................................................................... 133 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 133 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 133 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 133 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 133 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 133 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 133 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 134 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 134 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 134 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 134 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 134 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 134 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 134 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 134 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 134 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 135 N. NEC..................................................................................................................... 136 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 136 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 136 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 136 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 136 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 136 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 136 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 136 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 136 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 136 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 137 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 137 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 137 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 137 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 137 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 137 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 137 O. Nokia Siemens Networks.................................................................................... 138 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 138 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 138 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 138 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 138 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 138 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 138 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 138 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 138 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. x
  13. 13. b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 139 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 139 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 139 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 139 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 139 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 139 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 139 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 139 P. Nortel .................................................................................................................. 140 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 140 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 140 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 140 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 140 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 140 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 140 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 140 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 140 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 141 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 141 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 141 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 141 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 141 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 141 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 141 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 141 Q. Orca Interactive................................................................................................... 142 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 142 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 142 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 142 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 142 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 142 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 142 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 142 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 142 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 142 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 143 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 143 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 143 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 143 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 143 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 143 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 143 R. Sun Microsystems............................................................................................... 144 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 144 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 144 b) IPTV Products............................................................................................. 144 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. xi
  14. 14. c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 144 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 144 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 144 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 145 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 145 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 145 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 145 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 145 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 145 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 145 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 145 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 145 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 145 S. Tellabs................................................................................................................. 146 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 146 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 146 b) IPTV Products............................................................................................. 146 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 146 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 146 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 146 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 147 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 147 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 147 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 147 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 147 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 147 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 147 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 147 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 147 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 148 T. Thomson ............................................................................................................. 149 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 149 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 149 b) IPTV Products............................................................................................. 149 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 149 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 149 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 149 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 150 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 150 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 150 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 150 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 150 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 150 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 150 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 150 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 151 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. xii
  15. 15. d) Threats......................................................................................................... 151 U. UTStarcom.......................................................................................................... 152 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 152 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 152 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 152 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 152 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 152 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 152 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 153 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 153 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 153 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 153 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 153 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 153 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 153 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 153 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 153 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 154 V. ZyXel .................................................................................................................. 155 1. Company Activities ........................................................................................ 155 a) Core Business.............................................................................................. 155 b) IPTV............................................................................................................ 155 c) Ownership ................................................................................................... 155 d) Employees/Locations.................................................................................. 155 e) Finances ...................................................................................................... 155 2. IPTV Business ................................................................................................ 155 a) Customers ................................................................................................... 155 b) Alliances ..................................................................................................... 156 c) Target Market.............................................................................................. 156 d) Major Market Differentiator ....................................................................... 156 3. Analysis........................................................................................................... 156 a) Strengths ..................................................................................................... 156 b) Weaknesses ................................................................................................. 156 c) Opportunities............................................................................................... 156 d) Threats......................................................................................................... 156 XIII. Vendor Ratings............................................................................................ 157 A. Rating Criteria..................................................................................................... 157 B. Rating Calculations............................................................................................. 158 C. Rating Categories................................................................................................ 158 D. Dittberner’s Top Ten IPTV Suppliers................................................................. 158 1. Cisco Systems ................................................................................................. 158 2. Ericsson........................................................................................................... 158 3. Alcatel-Lucent................................................................................................. 159 4. Motorola.......................................................................................................... 159 5. Juniper Networks ............................................................................................ 159 6. Nokia Siemens networks................................................................................. 159 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. xiii
  16. 16. 7. Huawei Networks............................................................................................ 159 8. ZyXel .............................................................................................................. 159 9. UTStarcom...................................................................................................... 160 10. NEC................................................................................................................. 160 E. Dittberner’s Top 5 Telco IPTV Suppliers........................................................... 160 1. Alcatel-Lucent................................................................................................. 160 2. Ericsson........................................................................................................... 160 3. Nokia Siemens Networks................................................................................ 160 4. Cisco Systems ................................................................................................. 160 5. Juniper Networks ............................................................................................ 161 F. Dittberner’s Top 5 Cable IPTV Suppliers .......................................................... 161 1. Cisco Systems ................................................................................................. 161 2. Motorola.......................................................................................................... 161 3. Juniper Networks ............................................................................................ 161 4. Arris ................................................................................................................ 161 5. Sun Microsystems........................................................................................... 161 G. Dittberner’s Top 5 IPTV Middleware Suppliers ................................................ 162 1. Nokia Siemens ................................................................................................ 162 2. UTStarcom...................................................................................................... 162 3. Microsoft......................................................................................................... 162 4. Thomson ......................................................................................................... 162 5. Espial............................................................................................................... 162 H. Dittberner Perspective on the Ratings................................................................. 162 List of Tables Table 1: IPTV Equipment Revenue ($M’s) Forecast: 2007-2016...................................... 1 Table 2: Service Provider Revenue Forecast: 2007-2016................................................... 2 Table 3: IPTV Subscriber Forecast (000’s): 2007-2016..................................................... 2 Table 4: Total IPTV Equipment and Software Revenue ($M’s) Forecast: 2007-2016. ..... 3 Table 5: Top Ten IPTV Countries in 2006 by Subscribers. ............................................... 7 Table 6: Subscriber Growth (000's) by Type of IPTV Service......................................... 16 Table 7: Telco IPTV Take up Rates by Country .............................................................. 17 Table 8: Global Telco IPTV Subscriber Forecast (000's)................................................. 18 Table 9: APAC Telco IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. ....................... 19 Table 10: Eastern Europe Telco IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016......... 20 Table 11: Western Europe Telco IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. ...... 20 Table 12: Middle East & North Africa Telco IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007- 2016................................................................................................................................... 21 Table 13: Central & South Africa Telco IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. ........................................................................................................................................... 22 Table 14: North America Telco IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. ........ 22 Table 15: Caribbean & Latin America Telco IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007- 2016................................................................................................................................... 23 Table 16: Cable IPTV Take up Rates by Country ............................................................ 25 Table 17: Global Cable IPTV Subscriber Forecast (000's)............................................... 25 Table 18: APAC Cable IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. ..................... 26 Table 19: Eastern Europe Cable IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016 ........ 28 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. xiv
  17. 17. Table 20: Western Europe Cable IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. ...... 28 Table 21: Middle East & North Africa Cable IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007- 2016................................................................................................................................... 29 Table 22: North America Cable IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016......... 29 Table 23: Caribbean & Latin America Telco IPTV Subscribers by Country (000's):2007- 2016................................................................................................................................... 30 Table 24: Comparison of Download Times by Encoding and Access Bandwidth........... 33 Table 25: Internet Television Take up Rates by Country ................................................. 34 Table 26: Global Internet Television IPTV Subscriber Forecast (000's).......................... 34 Table 27: APAC Internet Television Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. .......... 36 Table 28: Eastern Europe Internet Television Subscribers (000's) by Country: 2007-2016 ....................................................................................................................... 36 Table 29: Western Europe Internet Television Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. ........................................................................................................................................... 37 Table 30: Middle East & North Africa Internet Television Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. ............................................................................................................ 38 Table 31: Central & South Africa Internet Television Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. ............................................................................................................ 38 Table 32: North America Internet Television Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. ........................................................................................................................................... 38 Table 33: Caribbean & Latin America Internet Television Subscribers by Country (000's):2007-2016. ............................................................................................................ 39 Table 34: Revenue Model Assumptions ........................................................................... 43 Table 35: Global Incremental Network Equipment Revenue ($M's): 2007-2016............ 43 Table 36: Global Telco IPTV Incremental Network Equipment Revenue ($M's): 2007- 2016................................................................................................................................... 44 Table 37: Global Cable IPTV Incremental Network Equipment Revenue ($M's): 2007- 2016................................................................................................................................... 45 Table 38: Global Internet Television Incremental Network Equipment Revenue ($M's): 2007-2016 ......................................................................................................................... 45 Table 39: Network Equipment Revenue Forecasts ($M's) for the Top Five National Markets: 2007-2016. ......................................................................................................... 46 Table 40: Subscribers per Headend Assumption: 2007-2016........................................... 49 Table 41: Telco IPTV Video Services Infrastructure Revenue ($000's): 2007-2016....... 50 Table 42: Cable IPTV Video Services Infrastructure Revenue ($000's): 2007-2016....... 51 Table 43: Internet Television Video Services Infrastructure Revenue ($000's): 2007-2016. ........................................................................................................................................... 51 Table 44: Set-top-box Type by Market Assumption ........................................................ 53 Table 45: SDTV Market Specific Price Assumptions: 2007-2016................................... 54 Table 46: HDTV Market Specific Price Assumptions: 2007-2016 .................................. 55 Table 47: Percentage of new IPTV Subscriber Households with SDTV Set: 2007-2016.56 Table 48: Percentage of new IPTV Subscriber Households with HDTV Set: 2007-2016. ........................................................................................................................................... 57 Table 49: Global IPTV STB Unit Shipments (000’s) by Type of IPTV: 2007-2016....... 57 Table 50: Telco IPTV SDTV STB Shipments (000’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016.......... 59 Table 51: Telco IPTV HDTV STB Shipments (000’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. ........ 59 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. xv
  18. 18. Table 52: Cable IPTV SDTV STB Shipments (000’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016.......... 60 Table 53: Cable IPTV HDTV STB Shipments (000’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. ........ 60 Table 54: Internet Television SDTV STB Shipments (000’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. ........................................................................................................................................... 61 Table 55: Internet Television HDTV STB Shipments (000’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. ........................................................................................................................................... 61 Table 56: Global IPTV STB Revenue ($M’s) by Type of IPTV: 2007-2016 .................. 62 Table 57: Telco IPTV SDTV STB Revenue ($M’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. ............ 63 Table 58: Telco IPTV HDTV STB Revenue ($M’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016............. 63 Table 59: Cable IPTV SDTV STB Revenue ($M’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. ............ 64 Table 60: Cable IPTV HDTV STB Revenue ($M’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. ........... 64 Table 61: Internet Television SDTV STB Revenue ($M’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016.. 65 Table 62: Internet Television HDTV STB Revenue ($M’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. 66 Table 63: Middleware Licensing Fee and Maintenance by Market ................................. 67 Table 64: IPTV Middleware Revenue ($M’s) by Service Type: 2007-2016. .................. 68 Table 65: Telco IPTV Middleware Revenue ($M's) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. ............ 68 Table 66: Cable IPTV Middleware Revenue ($M's) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. ............ 69 Table 67: Internet Television Middleware Revenue ($M's) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. . 70 Table 68: IPTV Home Network Subscribers (000's) by Sub-region: 2007-2016............. 72 Table 69: Global IPTV Home Network Equipment revenue ($M’s) by Type of IPTV: 2007-2016 ......................................................................................................................... 72 Table 70: Telco IPTV Home Revenue ($M’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. ..................... 74 Table 71: Cable IPTV Home Revenue ($M’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016. ..................... 74 Table 72: Internet Television Home Revenue ($M’s) by Sub-region: 2007-2016........... 75 Table 73: IPTV ARPU per Geographic Market ............................................................... 77 Table 74: Service Provider Revenue Forecast ($M's) by IPTV Type: 2007-2016. .......... 78 Table 75: Telco IPTV Service Provider Revenue by Sub-region:2007-2016. ................. 79 Table 76: Cable IPTV Service Provider Revenue by Sub-region:2007-2016. ................. 80 Table 77: Internet Television Service Provider Revenue by Sub-region:2007-2016. ...... 80 Table 78: IPTV Network Upgrade and Installation Labor Cost Assumptions by Market 82 Table 79: Average Telco IPTV Payback Time (Yrs) by Market Type: 2007-2016. ........ 84 Table 80: Average Cable IPTV Payback Time (Yrs) by Market Type: 2007-2016......... 84 Table 81: Average Internet Television Payback Time (Yrs) by Market Type: 2007-2016. ........................................................................................................................................... 85 Table 82: Average IPTV Payback Time (Yrs) by Market Type and Access Technology: 2007-2016. ........................................................................................................................ 86 Table 83: Broadband Network Upgrade to IPTV Payback Time (Yrs) for AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast: 2007-2016. ................................................................................................. 86 Table 84: Broadband Services Network Payback Time (Yrs) for BSNL: 2007-2016. .... 87 List of Figures Figure 1: Telco IPTV DSL Network Diagram ................................................................. 10 Figure 2: Telco IPTV FTTH Network Diagram ............................................................... 11 Figure 3: Cable IPTV on a Legacy HFC Network ........................................................... 12 Figure 4: Cable IPTV on a Legacy HFC Network ........................................................... 13 Figure 5: Telco IPTV Subscribers' Market Share by Regions: 2007 & 2016................... 18 Figure 6: Cable IPTV Subscribers' Market Share by Regions: 2007 & 2016. ................. 26 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. xvi
  19. 19. Figure 7: Internet Television Subscribers' Market Share by Regions: 2007 & 2016 ....... 35 Figure 8: Network Model for Network Equipment Forecast............................................ 42 Figure 9: IPTV STB Unit Shipments by IPTV Type: 2007 & 2016. ............................... 58 Figure 10: IPTV Home Network Equipment Market Share by Service Type: 2007 & 2016 ........................................................................................................................................... 73 Figure 11: Service Provider Revenue Market Share by IPTV Type, 2007 & 2016. ........ 78 Figure 12: iNES Network ................................................................................................. 94 ©Copyright 2007 Dittberner Associates, Inc. xvii

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