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  1. 1. 英译中 原文 Evolving Networks, Evolving Models -- IDC Predicts Top 10 Most Impactful Telecommunications Trends across Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) in 2007 Singapore and Hong Kong, January 18, 2007 – According to IDC's Asia/Pacific (Excluding Japan) Telecommunications 2007 Top 10 Predictions, Doc #AP2012S1N, 2007 will be a period of evolution, and network and IT equipment will shift its focus from hardware to a greater emphasis on software and services. "The telecommunications industry in APEJ is facing a period of evolution, as lines between traditional
  2. 2. network architectures and services disappear, spurred by developments in technology and end-user usage patterns and demand. From convergence to shifting go-to-market strategies, both equipment vendors and telcos will need to better position themselves for the coming change," says Sandra Ng, Vice President for IDC's Asia/Pacific Communications, Peripherals, and Services research. The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) telecom services market was worth over US$183 billion in 2006 and is projected to achieve 10% growth to exceed US$202 billion in 2007. Growth will continue to come from VoIP, Broadband, IP Services and 3G Services. In addition, the networking equipment market, estimated at over US$7.2 billion in 2006, is expected to grow to over US$8 billion in 2007. Drawing from the latest IDC research and internal brainstorming sessions among IDC's global, regional
  3. 3. and country telecommunications and network analysts, the following represents IDC's high-level look at trends, vendor and service provider strategies, as well as new technologies that will emerge and impact the industry and its players in 2007. IDC's Top 10 Predictions for the Telecommunications Market in APEJ for 2007: 1. Increase in Layer 2 Ethernet services Telecommunication service providers in APEJ have been active in rolling out optical fiber-based metro Ethernet services in most major cities across the region for the past few years. While these services were previously confined to mature markets such as Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore, they are now available in most major cities from Bombay in
  4. 4. the west to Jakarta in the east. IDC expects most, if not all, major carriers in APEJ to start offering point-to-point metro Ethernet services in 2007 and that the service will gain considerable traction in the market by the end of the year. 2. Services get caught in the wireless mesh After much hype, 2007 will be the year where wireless mesh services will emerge in Asia. IDC believes this will occur because of its potential for large-scale wireless deployments, strong support from governments and the availability of blueprints from visible mesh deployments in North America, and to a lesser extent in Europe. 3. Building the WiMAX highway for greater connectivity
  5. 5. IDC believes that many larger WiMAX vendors will offer advanced antenna solutions in 2007 to achieve greater spectral efficiencies compared to alternative wireless technologies. The combination of IP-friendly interfaces, VoIP streaming, cost performance advantages, and the scalability of mobile WiMAX has already encouraged multiple trial deployments in the region. Going forward, IDC expects that ultimately mobile WiMAX will become the mainstay of licensed BWA across APEJ in the long-term. 4. Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) enables mass-market consumer mobility The move to consumer FMC is occurring in the APEJ region, with multiple operators looking at strategies to leverage its development. After
  6. 6. several years of discussion, technologies and products relating to FMC have progressed to the stage where initial deployments, either on a trial or commercial basis, are likely to be offered in 2007. This shift to FMC is going to trigger restructuring and changes in the business models as well as network infrastructure of carriers. While FMC will threaten some legacy services, it will also create new opportunities for fixed and mobile carriers to compete in each other's space. 5. IM evolves as the next collaborative tool in mobile business communication The business world is increasingly focused on collaboration, which is challenging given the need to coordinate among coworkers who may be spread across different cities or even continents. Mobile IM provides a superior messaging alternative for fast and cost-effective communication, particularly
  7. 7. when the workforce is dispersed in remote locations, where workers may not have access to their corporate intranet over LAN. IDC expects prosumers or professional consumers to drive enterprises to deploy IM solutions initially and IM will progressively evolve from being a standalone product to a communication product that is well integrated with other business applications. 6. Application-aware networking will grow in the enterprise Application-aware networking is defined as solutions that make intelligent routing, security, and delivery decisions regarding network traffic. A key priority among these products is the need to provide a secure and reliable architecture for enterprise applications, Web applications, or applications that run over TCP/IP. Traditionally, whenever latency issues arose over the WAN, the
  8. 8. immediate solution among enterprises was to purchase more bandwidth, increasing the capacity of its pipe. However, the market has realized that increasing bandwidth alone may not necessarily solve latency issues experienced in a WAN. Application-aware networking can be used to alleviate this issue. 2007 will be an significant year for application-aware networking as most vendors have settled down after the acquisition frenzy and have formulated aggressive strategies to acquire new customers. 7. Network Equipment Providers refine tradition channel distribution model by going direct Traditionally, network equipment providers (NEPs) have built up and utilized an ecosystem of channel
  9. 9. partners to distribute their products to enterprises. While this model has served remarkably well in the past, IDC believes that it will evolve in 2007. While differentiation and innovation continue to be key and indispensable in staying ahead of the game, NEPs are looking into expanding their service offerings as a means of distinguishing themselves from competitors. IDC predicts that direct sales, especially for larger or tier 1 accounts, will become strategically more important for NEPs. 8. Mobile TV to become a reality in key markets in the region While mobile TV service has been available in APEJ since 2005, service providers in the region have shown mixed interest in the service, although this may change soon. As ARPUs continue to drop throughout the region, service providers are
  10. 10. searching for new revenue streams and many believe they will find it in mobile TV. In 2007, IDC believes that many service providers will trial and commercially launch the service in the more developed markets of APEJ. 9. Peer to peer services threatens growth and development of IPTV In the APEJ region, multiple service providers have placed an increasing emphasis on the potential of IPTV. In 2007, activity surrounding IPTV is set to remain strong, both among service providers and among the vendor community. However, the emergence of P2P services that re-broadcast signals from cable or IPTV networks over the Internet needs attention. These P2P services presently originate mainly from China, with increasing usage in the region . Starting in 2007, IPTV operators in APEJ and around the world will need to closely watch the
  11. 11. development of these services in a bid to mitigate this threat. 10. Web 2.0 presents new opportunities and new challenges The APEJ region has some of the most advanced, and connected, telecommunications populations in the world. While developments in FMC continue, other applications and solutions are being developed to provide a richer experience to end-users. Among these, applications associated with Web 2.0 are gaining traction in the region. Web 2.0 generally refers to new applications and processes of using the Internet to increase collaboration and interaction among end-users via the Web platform. IDC expects 2007 to be a year when their popularity will push service providers to develop strategies to harness the development, both within the enterprise and among consumers.
  12. 12. For more information about purchasing the report, "Asia/Pacific (Excluding Japan) Telecommunications 2007 Top 10 Predictions, Doc #AP2012S1N, please contact Selina Ang at +65-6829-7717 or sang@idc.com. For press enquiries, please contact Holly Fung at +852-2905-4225 or hfung@idc.com. 译文 网络在演变,业务模式也要变! ——IDC 预言 2007:亚太地区(不含日本)电信业的 10 大趋势 新加坡、香港 07 年 1 月 18 日讯:IDC 的专题研究报告《亚 太地区(不含日本)电信业 07 年之十大预测》(文件号: AP2012S1N)预测:07 年将是演变之年,网络与 IT 设备的 发展重点将从硬件转向更加重视软件和服务。
  13. 13. “在技术进步、终端用户的使用模式和需求的共同推动下, 传统网络架构与服务之间的界线正在消失。本地区的电信业 也因此步入了演变期。从融合战略转向‘面向市场’战略的 设备厂商和电信公司都必须重新找好立足点,以应对即将 到来的变化,”IDC 亚太区通信、外设和服务研究部副总裁 Sandra Ng 说。 06 年,本地区电信服务市场的规模超过了 1830 亿美元; IDC 预计:07 年将增长 10%,超过 2020 亿美元。持续的增长 来自 IP 语音、宽带业务、 服务和 3G 服务。 IP 此外,网络互 联设备的市场规模 06 年估计超过了 72 亿美元,07 年预计 突破 80 亿美元。 以下内容摘自 IDC 的年度专题报告,该报告综合了 IDC 的最 新研究成果和 IDC 那些研究全球、各地区、各国的通信、网络 市场的分析师们历年的专业积累和最新的头脑风暴的研讨 成果,代表了 IDC 对本地区电信业的高瞻远瞩,涉及:行业
  14. 14. 的发展趋势,厂商和服务提供商的业务战略,以及 07 年将 会出现的震撼业界的新技术。 对于亚太地区(不含日本)电信市场 07 年的发展趋势, IDC 发布以下 10 大预测: 1. 二层以太网服务将会增长 近几年来,在本地区的多数大城市中,本地区的电信服务 提供商积极推出城域光纤以太网服务。在这之前,这种服务 仅限于香港、韩国和新加坡等少数成熟市场;如今,已遍及 多数大城市,西到孟买,东至雅加达。IDC 预计:本地区绝 大多数(甚至是全部)的主要运营商 07 年都将推出点到点 城域以太网服务。年底时,该服务将获得强劲的市场动力。 2. 电信服务深陷无线网状网
  15. 15. 经过以往的大肆宣传,无线网状网服务 07 年将在本地区粉 墨登场。登场的原因 IDC 估计有三:1)该网具有大规模部署 的潜力;2)各地政府的大力支持;3)有现成的部署蓝图 可资借鉴,欧洲有一些,北美则更多。 3. 无线城域网(WiMAX)高速路的建设将实现更好的 接入 IDC 认为:许多大型的 WiMAX 厂商 07 年将提供先进的天线 解决方案,以获得比其它无线技术更高的频谱效率。移动 WiMAX 有四大优点:IP 友好型接口、IP 语音流(VoIP streaming)、高性价比和可伸缩性。这些因素推动了本地区 各类试验性的部署。这样发展下去,IDC 预计:长远而言, 移动 WiMAX 终将成为本地区特许宽带无线接入的中坚力量。 4. 固-移两网合一(FMC)将实现普遍的移动消费
  16. 16. 本地区正在迈向固-移两网合一的实际商用。多重服务运营 商正在考虑各种发展战略。经过多年的热议,FMC 的相关技 术和产品已发展至以下程度:试验性甚至是商用性的初始 部署 07 年都有可能出现。转向 FMC 将迫使电信运营商对其业 务模式和网络架构加以重构、改变。 的确会威胁到某些传 FMC 统服务,但它也能为固网运营商和移动运营商杀入彼此的 地盘提供新的商机。 5. 即时通信(IM)将演进为移动商务通信新的协同工 具 商界日益仰仗协作,而协作绝非易事:需要彼此协调的员 工可能散布于各城市,甚至各大洲。移动 IM 提供了另一种 高级的通信手段——高速度、高性价比,且特别适用于以下 情形:人力资源散布于穷乡僻壤,员工难以透过局域网访 问企业内部网。IDC 预计:专业消费者(prosumer)将推动 企业试行 IM 解决方案的部署。以此为契机,IM 将从一种单 独的产品演变为一种与其它商务应用紧密集成的通信产品。
  17. 17. 6. 应用敏感型联网技术(application-aware networking)将在企业中获得发展 该技术定义为:网络传输时,路由可智能选择、安全可智能 保障、内容可智能分发的解决方案。此类产品的一大关键是: 需要提供一种安全、可靠的架构,用以支撑企业应用、互联 网应用或透过互联网协议簇(TCP/IP)的应用。以往,企业 一旦遇到广域网上的传输延迟(latency issues),就买 更多带宽,增大管道容量,以解燃眉之急。但如今市场的趋 向说明大家已经意识到:单靠增加带宽并不一定能将广域 网上的延迟问题解决掉。采用应用敏感型联网技术倒的确可 以缓解之。07 年将是该项技术的发力之年——经受住并购 狂潮的考验之后,多数厂商不但已经站稳了脚跟,而且还 定下了争抢客户的虎狼之计。 7. 网络设备提供商(NEP)将改进传统的渠道经销模 式,引入直销。
  18. 18. NEP 的传统做法是:建立起渠道伙伴的生态系统,再利用该 系统将产品销往企业。虽然这种模式以往运转良好,但 IDC 认为:这种模式 07 年将有所演变。一方面,产品的差异化和 创新依然是领先对手不可或缺的法宝;另一方面,NEP 也在 考虑服务的扩展,作为销售领域的一种差异化手段。IDC 预 计:NEP 采用直销,尤其是将其用于大额销售协议或销往一 流企业的协议,07 年将更具战略价值。 8. 在本地区的重要市场上,移动电视将“可望又可及 ”。 在本地区,虽然移动电视服务早在 05 年就已问世,但对此 项服务,该地区的服务提供商怀有复杂的情感。这种情况也 许很快就会改变:随着 ARPU 值在整个地区的持续下跌,服 务提供商在探索新的营收渠道。许多提供商相信:答案就是 移动电视。IDC 认为:在本地区那些较为发达的市场上,对 于移动电视,许多服务提供商 07 年将先试行,再商用。
  19. 19. 9. P2P 服务(peer to peer service)将威胁到 网络电视(IPTV)的成长与发展。 本地区的多重服务提供商日益重视网络电视的发展潜力。服 务提供商之间、厂商之间围绕网络电视的商业活动 07 年必将 保持强劲的势头。但业界还应关注 P2P 服务的出现——通过 互联网转播有线电视和网络电视的信号。目前,这些 P2P 服 务主要源自中国。在本地区,其使用量在增长。 07 年开始, 从 本地区及世界其它地区的网络电视运营商应密切关注此类 服务的动向,尽力减轻其威胁。 10. Web 2.0 将带来新的商机,构成新的挑战! 全世界享有最先进、最密集电信服务的消费群体中有一些就 在本地区。该地区在固-移两网合一继续发展的同时,也在 开发其它应用与解决方案,提供给终端用户,使其获得丰 富多彩的通信体验。本地区的此类开发中,开发与 Web 2.0 相关的各种应用的动力日渐强大。Web 2.0 一般是指终端用 户通过 Web 平台增加彼此间的协作与交互的新应用和新流
  20. 20. 程。IDC 预计:到 2007 年,Web 2.0 的广受欢迎将推动服务 提供商开发出既能驾驭其在企业内的发展、又能驾驭其在客 户之间发展的策略。 以上十大预测出自 IDC 的年度专题研究报告《亚太地区(不 含日本)电信业 07 年之十大预测》(文件号:AP2012S1N)。 欲知购买此报告之详情,敬请联络 Selina Ang: +65-6829-7717 或 sang@idc.com;媒体如需垂询,敬请联 络 Holly Fung:+852-2905-4225 或 hfung@idc.com

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