Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Storm Warts, The Floods Awaken, A New Hope for Cost-Effective Investment in Flood Management

232 views

Published on

Presentation by Robert Muir at the The National Conference of the Canadian Water and Wastewater Association, Montréal, Canada, November 5, 2018

Published in: Engineering
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Storm Warts, The Floods Awaken, A New Hope for Cost-Effective Investment in Flood Management

  1. 1. Not long ago, in many cities not far away ….
  2. 2. The Floods Awaken - A New Hope for Cost-Effective Investment in Flood Management Infrastructure
  3. 3. Have the floods “awakened” ?
  4. 4. Look at some data we must $400 M / yr > $1 B / yr CatIQ Data “various company surveys” ?
  5. 5. Flood, water, storm perils … Benefit-cost analysis considers frequency Expected loss = $367M / yr 2013 is one in 21-Year event Gumbel N=18 Xbar = 0.42 S=0.66 2013 $40k* loss per home not ‘average’
  6. 6. Water damage % is decreasing 34.0 % of Total Losses 31.7%
  7. 7. “Fear is the path to the dark side.”
  8. 8. Should we fear climate change effects? Dark Force Climate ChangeYour Infrastructure
  9. 9. Should we fear climate change effects? “..all culverts are undersized. All sewers are undersized …” Dark Force Climate ChangeYour Infrastructure
  10. 10. Or carefully quantify system capacity? Sewer meeting design capacity = 96% Culverts meeting head water standard = 94% Culverts meeting velocity criteria = 96%
  11. 11. And stay laser-focused on isolated Storm Warts (gaps). DMAF Projects Asset Value 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Billion$ Storm Waste -water Bridges Approximate National Storm and Wastewater Upgrades (Scaled Markham and Toronto Flood Programs 6% of Asset Value) $5 B $418 B $28 B
  12. 12. Cost-benefit analysis offers a New Hope to focus infrastructure upgrades.
  13. 13. Cost-benefit analysis offers a New Hope to focus infrastructure upgrades. BCR = Benefits (deferred damages) Project Costs
  14. 14. Analysis for Flood Benefit/Cost (ROI) ROI Analysis Component 1. Climate Change 2. All event frequencies 3. H&H Engineering 4. Local Damages (Benefits) 5. Mitigation Costs 6. Benefit/Cost for Flood Damages 7. Other Benefits Quantified Capital Cost ($M) Required Engineering analysis Complete weather (event) frequency conditions Economic analysis Other
  15. 15. Systems: Project: ROI Analysis Component Red River Floodway Barber, Chesney, Templeton Engineering Stratford Storm Master Plan Dillon Consulting Alberta Spring- bank Reservoir IBI Markham Don Mills Channel Class EA TMIG Markham City-Wide Storm / San. CBA Muir, Papa Laurel Cr. Wetlands Waterloo SPA ICCA Metro- linx Green Park’g Lot PwC Autocase 1. Climate Change 2. All event frequencies 3. H&H Engineering 4. Local Damages (Benefits) 5. Mitigation Costs 6. Benefit/Cost for Flood Damages 7. Other Benefits Quantified Capital Cost ($M) Required Large River Large River Creek CreekCreek City-wide Sewers City-wide Sewers
  16. 16. Study Purpose : Project: ROI Analysis Component Red River Floodway Barber, Chesney, Templeton Engineering Stratford Storm Master Plan Dillon Consulting Alberta Spring- bank Reservoir IBI Markham Don Mills Channel Class EA TMIG Markham City-Wide Storm / San. CBA Muir, Papa Laurel Cr. Wetlands Waterloo SPA ICCA Metro- linx Green Park’g Lot PwC Autocase 1. Climate Change 2. All event frequencies 3. H&H Engineering 4. Local Damages (Benefits) 5. Mitigation Costs 6. Benefit/Cost for Flood Damages 7. Other Benefits Quantified Capital Cost ($M) 73 (‘58) 77 (‘04) 160 70 260 - - 0.02 Required
  17. 17. Royal Commission – Comprehensive Project: ROI Analysis Component Red River Floodway Barber, Chesney, Templeton Engineering Stratford Storm Master Plan Dillon Consulting Alberta Spring- bank Reservoir IBI Markham Don Mills Channel Class EA TMIG Markham City-Wide Storm / San. CBA Muir, Papa Laurel Cr. Wetlands Waterloo SPA ICCA Metro- linx Green Park’g Lot PwC Autocase 1. Climate Change No 2. All event frequencies Yes 3. H&H Engineering Yes 4. Local Damages (Benefits) Yes 5. Mitigation Costs Yes 6. Benefit/Cost for Flood Damages 2.73 7. Other Benefits Quantified No Capital Cost ($M) 73 (‘58) 77 (‘04) 160 70 260 No - 0.02 Required Engineering analysis (9 Volumes)
  18. 18. Provincial Class EA Process Project: ROI Analysis Component Red River Floodway Barber, Chesney, Templeton Engineering Strafford Storm Master Plan Dillon Consulting Alberta Spring- bank Reservoir IBI Markham Don Mills Channel Class EA TMIG Markham City-Wide Storm / San. CBA Muir, Papa Laurel Cr. Wetlands Waterloo SPA ICCA Metro- linx Green Park’g Lot PwC Autocase 1. Climate Change No No 2. All event frequencies Yes Yes 3. H&H Engineering Yes Yes 4. Local Damages (Benefits) Yes Yes (by property) 5. Mitigation Costs Yes Yes 6. Benefit/Cost for Flood Damages 2.73 0.06 to 0.77 (priority sys.) 7. Other Benefits Quantified No No Capital Cost ($M) 73 (‘58) 77 (‘04) 160 70 260 No - 0.02 Required Property–by–property Loss Estimates
  19. 19. Provincial EA - Comprehensive Project: ROI Analysis Component Red River Floodway Barber, Chesney, Templeton Engineering Stratford Storm Master Plan Dillon Consulting Alberta Spring- bank Reservoir IBI Markham Don Mills Channel Class EA TMIG Markham City-Wide Storm / San. CBA Muir, Papa Laurel Cr. Wetlands Waterloo SPA ICCA Metro- linx Green Park’g Lot PwC Autocase 1. Climate Change No No No 2. All event frequencies Yes Yes Yes 3. H&H Engineering Yes Yes Yes 4. Local Damages (Benefits) Yes Yes (by property) Yes 5. Mitigation Costs Yes Yes Yes 6. Benefit/Cost for Flood Damages 2.73 0.06 to 0.77 (priority sys.) 1.3 to 1.9 7. Other Benefits Quantified No No No Capital Cost ($M) 73 (‘58) 77 (‘04) 160 70 260 No - 0.02 Required Public / Peer Review (Prov. EIA, Fed. CEAA process)
  20. 20. Provincial Class EA Process Project: ROI Analysis Component Red River Floodway Barber, Chesney, Templeton Engineering Stratford Storm Master Plan Dillon Consulting Alberta Spring- bank Reservoir IBI Markham Don Mills Channel Class EA TMIG Markham City-Wide Storm / San. CBA Muir, Papa Laurel Cr. Wetlands Waterloo SPA ICCA Metro- linx Green Park’g Lot PwC Autocase 1. Climate Change No No No Yes 2. All event frequencies Yes Yes Yes Yes 3. H&H Engineering Yes Yes Yes Yes 4. Local Damages (Benefits) Yes Yes (by property) Yes Yes (by prop.) 5. Mitigation Costs Yes Yes Yes Yes 6. Benefit/Cost for Flood Damages 2.73 0.06 to 0.77 (priority sys.) 1.3 to 1.9 2.2 7. Other Benefits Quantified No No No No Capital Cost ($M) 73 (‘58) 77 (‘04) 160 70 260 No - 0.02 Required First Nation &, Business Stakeholder Consultation, Formal Public & Ministry Review, Funding Consultation, Building- by-building damage estimates, 2D hydraulic model … Exceeds DMAF ROI (Eligibility Screening)
  21. 21. City-Wide Program & Policy ROI Project: ROI Analysis Component Red River Floodway Barber, Chesney, Templeton Engineering Stratford Storm Master Plan Dillon Consulting Alberta Spring- bank Reservoir IBI Markham Don Mills Channel Class EA TMIG Markham City-Wide Storm / San. CBA Muir, Papa Laurel Cr. Wetlands Waterloo SPA ICCA Metro- linx Green Park’g Lot PwC Autocase 1. Climate Change No No No Yes Yes 2. All event frequencies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 3. H&H Engineering Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 4. Local Damages (Benefits) Yes Yes (by property) Yes Yes (by prop.) Yes (city-wide) 5. Mitigation Costs Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 6. Benefit/Cost for Flood Damages 2.73 0.06 to 0.77 (priority sys.) 1.3 to 1.9 2.2 2.0 to 5.5 7. Other Benefits Quantified No No No No Yes (eros., qual.) Capital Cost ($M) 73 (‘58) 77 (‘04) 160 70 260 Required Consolidates Class EAs and Master Plans (Calibrated Models) Detailed Actual & Projected Costs Local Insured Cat IQ and Total Losses Validates City-wide Program Scope Informs Grey/Green Policy
  22. 22. University Research Project: ROI Analysis Component Red River Floodway Barber, Chesney, Templeton Engineering Stratford Storm Master Plan Dillon Consulting Alberta Spring- bank Reservoir IBI Markham Don Mills Channel Class EA TMIG Markham City-Wide Storm / San. CBA Muir, Papa Laurel Cr. Wetlands Waterloo SPA ICCA Metro- linx Green Park’g Lot PwC Autocase 1. Climate Change No No No Yes Yes No 2. All event frequencies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 3. H&H Engineering Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 4. Local Damages (Benefits) Yes Yes (by property) Yes Yes (by prop.) Yes (city-wide) Yes / No 5. Mitigation Costs Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No 6. Benefit/Cost for Flood Damages 2.73 0.06 to 0.77 (priority sys.) 1.3 to 1.9 2.2 2.0 to 5.5 No 7. Other Benefits Quantified No No No No Yes (eros., qual.) No Capital Cost ($M) 73 (‘58) 77 (‘04) 160 70 260 No Required Damages Not Annualized No Cost of Mitigation or Benefit/Cost
  23. 23. Economic Research Project: ROI Analysis Component Red River Floodway Barber, Chesney, Templeton Engineering Stratford Storm Master Plan Dillon Consulting Alberta Spring- bank Reservoir IBI Markham Don Mills Channel Class EA TMIG Markham City-Wide Storm / San. CBA Muir, Papa Laurel Cr. Wetlands Waterloo SPA ICCA Metro- linx Green Park’g Lot PwC Autocase 1. Climate Change No No No Yes Yes No No* 2. All event frequencies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 3. H&H Engineering Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No 4. Local Damages (Benefits) Yes Yes (by property) Yes Yes (by prop.) Yes (city-wide) Yes / No No (US eqn’s) 5. Mitigation Costs Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 6. Benefit/Cost for Flood Damages 2.73 0.06 to 0.77 (priority sys.) 1.3 to 1.9 2.2 2.0 to 5.5 No 4.8 7. Other Benefits Quantified No No No No Yes (eros., qual.) No Yes (many) Capital Cost ($M) 73 (‘58) 77 (‘04) 160 70 260 No - 0.02 Required US River Flood Damage Indices – No Local Data Used No Hydrology or Hydraulic Analysis (Local Subwatershed Study, Municipal SWM Not Used) “Meant to Inspire Further Study”, Autocase Flood Analysis Limited – Emphasis on “Non-flood” Conventional Tank Classified as “Green” (?)
  24. 24. Range of detail considered Project: Analysis Component Red River Floodway Barber, Chesney, Templeton Engineering Stratford Storm Master Plan Dillon Consulting Alberta Spring- bank Reservoir IBI Markham Don Mills Channel Class EA TMIG Markham City-Wide Storm / San. CBA Muir, Papa Laurel Cr. Wetlands Waterloo SPA ICCA Metro- linx Green Park’g Lot PwC Autocase 1. Climate Change No No No Yes Yes No No* 2. All event frequencies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 3. H&H Engineering Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No 4. Local Damages (Benefits) Yes Yes (by property) Yes Yes (by prop.) Yes (city-wide) Yes No (US eqn’s) 5. Mitigation Costs Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 6. Benefit/Cost for Flood Damages 2.73 0.06 to 0.77 (priority sys.) 1.3 to 1.9 2.2 2.0 to 5.5 No 4.8 7. Other Benefits Quantified No No No No Yes (eros., qual.) No Yes (many) Capital Cost ($M) 73 (‘58) 77 (‘04) 160 70 260 No - 0.02 “Econ-gineering” Required
  25. 25. Evidence-based Policy “Econ-gineering” Evidence is ‘expert knowledge; published research; existing research; stakeholder consultations; previous policy evaluations; … outcomes from consultations; costings of policy options; output from economic and statistical modelling’ (UK Cabinet Office, 1999) Evidence- based “Number stretching and concept massaging”
  26. 26. Resources for Sound ROI Analysis • Canadian Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide: Regulatory Proposals, 2007. “all regulatory departments and agencies are expected to show that the recommended option maximizes the net economic, environmental, and social benefits to Canadians, business, and government over time”
  27. 27. Resources for Sound ROI Analysis • Canadian Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide: Regulatory Proposals (2007) 5 Step Process: • STEP 1: Identify Issues, Risks, & the Baseline Scenario, Consult • STEP 2: Set Objectives • STEP 3: Develop Alternative Regulatory & Non-Reg. Options, Consult Stakeholders • STEP 4: Assess Benefits & Costs • STEP 5: Prepare Accounting Statement • Municipal Class EA Process, Ontario (amended 2015): • Phase 1: Identify Problem or Opportunity • Phase 2: Identify Alternative Solutions (incl. consultation) • Phase 3: Examine Alternatives and + and – Effects (ROI optional) • Phase 4: Report on Preferred Alternative & Consult • Phase 5: Design, Construct, mon.
  28. 28. Example City-wide Benefit/Cost 0.77 0.06 0.53 0.15 Invest $ 1 to defer 77 cents of flood damage Invest $1 to defer 6 cents of flood damageProceed to Class EA Best Practices, Policies & Programs
  29. 29. Flood & Other Benefits (IBC)
  30. 30. Pelly’s Lake Wetland Restoration (Reservoir) Flood Attenuation Biomass Production CO2 Offset Phosphorus Nitrogen Flood & Other Benefits (IBC) All Benefits Net Benefit/Cost = 2.83 – 3.64 Meta-Flood Benefits Net Benefit/Cost = 0.56 – 0.72 “Meta-analysis” Flood Attenuation = 20 % of total benefitsFlood Other
  31. 31. Flood & Other Benefits (Original) An economic assessment of local farm multi-purpose surface water retention systems in a Canadian Prairie setting Pamela Berry, Fuad Yassin, Kenneth Belcher, Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt 27 July 2017
  32. 32. Flood & Other Benefits (Original)An economic assessment of local farm multi-purpose surface water retention systems in a Canadian Prairie setting Manitoba – to - Literature Flood Benefits Net Benefit/Cost = Nil to 0.14 Avoided flooding costs = 0.03 % to 4% of total benefits Pelly’s Lake Wetland Restoration (Reservoir) Flood Attenuation Biomass Production Carbon Credits Phosphorus Nitrogen Flood Other
  33. 33. Econ-gineering Case Studies (IBC) Project: Analysis Component Case Study #1 Assessing the value of natural assets .. Gibsons, BC Case Study #2 Assessing the benefits of wetland conserve. Waterloo, ON Case Study #3: Assessing the value of the Pelly’s Lake .. Manitoba Case Study #4: Assessing value of natural infrastructure … Oakville, ON Metrolinx Green Parking Lot Brampton, ON 1. Climate Chg. No No No No No* 2. All event freq. No Yes No Yes Yes 3. H&H Eng’g No Yes No Yes No 4. Local Damages (Benefits) No Yes No (meta-analysis)* No No* (US eqn’s) 5. Mitigation Costs No (alt. cost only) No Yes No (alt. cost only) Yes 6. Benefit/Cost No No 0**–0.72* (flood) 2.8 – 3.6 (all) No 4.8* (flood) 12.35 (all) 7. Other Benefits No No Yes No Yes Capital Cost ($M) 3.5 – 4 (alt.) No 1.0 1.2 – 1.4 (alt.) - 0.02
  34. 34. Flood Control Program - Markham 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 Standards Downspout Prgm. Backwater Valve Pgm. San.Sewer Upgrades Stm. Sewer Upgrades Green Infr. Retrofit Cost($M) < $0.1 M
  35. 35. Flood Control Program - Markham 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 Standards Downspout Prgm. Backwater Valve Pgm. San.Sewer Upgrades Stm. Sewer Upgrades Green Infr. Retrofit < $0.1 M Grey Infrastructure Benefit / Cost = 2.0 Insured = 5.5 Total Green Infrastructure Benefit / Cost = 0.1 Insured = 0.3 Total Best Practices No Regrets Policies & Programs High ROI Approved Program $ 263 M $2.19 B for 25% of city
  36. 36. Conclusions • Floods are important but have not “awakened”, data trends show (“water damage” fraction decreasing) • On Storm Warts, we shall be laser focused • Benefit-cost analysis for flood infrastructure, a New Hope it is • Detailed engineering studies to assess project and policy benefits, we must have • Clear of the dark side, we must stay
  37. 37. Questions ? Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng. rmuir@markham.ca Blog: www.CityFloodMap.com Podcast: Open During Construction on iTunes Twitter: @RobertMuir_PEng Web: www.markham.ca The National Conference of the Canadian Water and Wastewater Association Montréal, Canada, November 5, 2018 PRINT VERSION
  38. 38. Woodbine Evolution of Design Standards 41 Engineer Master Storm-whacker Climate Change Fab Solo
  39. 39. Insurance Industry: • “Water Damage” is key driver to growing costs after 2008 http://http://assets.ibc.ca/Documents/Resources/IBC-Natural-Infrastructure-Report-2018.pdf
  40. 40. Losses Are Increasing for All Perils
  41. 41. % Water Damage Decreasing After 2008 1983-2008 Flood, Water Rain, Storm, Hurricane Perils – “Water Damage” $4.57 B 34.0% of Total 2009-2017 Flood, Water Rain, Storm, Hurricane Perils – “Water Damage” $8.90 B 31.7% of Total

×