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2.7 overview-on-intelligence-Steele on future

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This is my latest briefing on the future of intelligence, with words in Notes format.

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2.7 overview-on-intelligence-Steele on future

  1. 1. ON INTELLIGENCE Overview 2.6 http://tinyurl.com/2013-Steele
  2. 2. Why Is Intelligence So Feeble? Money, Sex, & Spotlight Trump Secrets Greg Treverton (1986)
  3. 3. What Is Intelligence? And What Is Intelligence Not? Intelligence Knower Intelligence Is: • Actionable Answers • Decision-Support • Evidence-Based • Holistic Process Intelligence Is Not: • Applied Knowledge • Beliefs in Isolation • Consciousness • Covert Action • Espionage • Secret Information • Wisdom
  4. 4. What Form Might Intelligence Be?
  5. 5. What Threats Should We Consider? 01 Poverty 02 Infectious Disease 03 Environmental Degradation 04 Inter-State Conflict 05 Civil War 06 Genocide 07 Other Atrocities 08 Proliferation 09 Terrorism 10 Transnational Crime High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, & Change (including LtGen Dr. Brent Scowcroft), A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility (United Nations, December 2004)
  6. 6. What Strategies & Policies Apply? 01 Agriculture 02 Diplomacy 03 Economy 04 Education 05 Energy 06 Family Mandate 07 Health for 08 Immigration Change 09 Justice 10 Security 11 Society Various Presidential 12 Water Transition Teams
  7. 7. Preliminary Holistic Analytic Model Core Gaps in Holistic Analysis Essential to Future-Proofing What US IC Focuses On.. Nigeria
  8. 8. Whole Systems Analytics
  9. 9. Who Owns the Future? Demography Rules [Minister-Mentor Lee Kuan Yew] Projected for 2050 India China USA Nigeria Indonesia Pakistan Brazil Bangladesh Philippines Congo DR Ethiopia Mexico Tanzania Russia Egypt Japan Viet-Nam Kenya Uganda Turkey 1.7B 1.3B 0.4B 0.4B 0.3B 0.3B 0.22B 0.19B 0.15B 0.15B 0.15B 0.14B 0.14B 0.13B 0.12B 0.11B 0.10B 0.96B 0.94B 0.91B
  10. 10. Utility of Open Sources Economic and social threats, including • Poverty • Infectious Disease • Environmental Degradation 95% 99% 95% 90% Interstate conflict 75% Internal conflict, including • Civil War • Genocide • Other Large-Scale Atrocities 90% 85% 95% 95% Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological WMD 75% Terrorism 80% Transnational organized crime 80% 2008 Open Source Intelligence [in Loch Johnson (ed) Strategic Intelligence Vol 2. Chapter 6]
  11. 11. Evolutionary Path for Intelligence
  12. 12. Understood from 1988 Less Cyber, Cyber Added 1992. BOTH US IC Leaders and DoD Leaders (Cheney) Refused to Acknowledge
  13. 13. Eradicate Corruption Educate All Publics REALITY REALITY Illuminate True Costs REALITY REALITY Harmonize Field Effects
  14. 14. Fundamentals of Intelligence 25 Years – US$1.2 Trillion Still Do Not Have This! 1. Whole of Government Decision-Support 2. Holistic Analytics with True Cost Economics 3. Counterintelligence on Domestic Enemies 4. Integrated Scalable IT 5. Open Requirements Showing Satisfaction & Connecting Clients 6. Spend with Integrity
  15. 15. 25 Years Out 12 Years Out Whole of Government Institutions* 72 Hours Out Cross-Cutting Threats & Policies 1 Year Out 90 Days Out President Vice President State Treasury Defense Justice Interior Agriculture Commerce Labor Health & Human Services Housing & Urban Development Transportation Energy Education Veterans Affairs Homeland Security Environmental Protection Agency** Office of Management & Budget** US Trade Representative** US Ambassador to the UN** Council of Economic Advisors** Small Business Administration** OPERATIONAL Imminent TACTICAL * In Order of Secession to Presidency ** Cabinet Rank Not In Succession Poverty Infectious Disease Environmental Degradation Inter-State Conflict Civil War Genocide Other Atrocities Proliferation Terrorism Transnational Crime Agriculture Diplomacy Economy Education Energy Family Health Immigration Justice Security Society Water TECHNICAL 50 Years Out STRATEGIC Long Term (100 Years)
  16. 16. Full-Spectrum Intelligence
  17. 17. Context & Process for Intelligence
  18. 18. Government Law Enforcement Military Business Information Commons Media Academia Non-Profit Civil Societies
  19. 19. Multinational - Strategic
  20. 20. Technology Architecture
  21. 21. Local to Global Range of Needs Table
  22. 22. The truth at any cost lowers all other costs. BE the Force!

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