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applied strategic 10 years vision for biosimilars

Richard Littlewood
Richard Littlewood
Richard LittlewoodCEO Founder at appliedstrategic

what defined success in the first 10 years of biosimilars commercial activities? What will define such in the next 10 years?

applied strategic 10 years vision for biosimilars

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applied strategic
10 years experience in biosimilars: launch
to the future. What matters most?
Presentation by Dr Richard Littlewood
9 March 2016
8th Biosimilars Congregation
applied strategic 1
Note
• This is a copy for distribution of a presentation made by Dr. Richard Littlewood
reflecting on 10 years of experience in biosimilars, predicting what matters most for
the future.
applied strategic 2
Analytics
What we all know? Definition of similarity concept for
biologic medicines defined a new market for biosimilars
applied strategic 3
Preclinical
PK/PD
Clinical
Trials
Process
development
Source: McCamish 2011, CMHP/437/04
Biological
Characterization
Physiochemical
Characterization
“A company may choose to
develop a new biological medicinal
product claimed to be “similar” to a
reference medicinal product”
CHMP/437/04
What do we expect? Rapid growth to $35B global market
for biosimilars, predicted by observers
applied strategic 4
Biosimilars global sales
[2013-2020, $B]
60%
CAGR
Biosimilars
Biologics
175
285
2013 2020
Source: Merck Serono 2014, Blackstone & Joseph 2013, EGA 2015, Evaluate Group 2014
When did it start? Radical regulatory affairs innovation by
EMEA, 2004 and key guidance launched biosimilars
applied strategic Source: applied strategic analysis EMA
Legal progress
Regulatory progress
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Directive 2003/63/EC
“Annex I” biosimilars
recognition
Directive
2004/27/EC
published
Directive
2004/27/EC
in law
First
biosimilar
approved
Product
guidelines
hGh, insulin,
EPO, G-CSF
Comparability
guidelines
Quality, non-
clinical,
clinical
guidelines
Where did it start? In Europe work started pre-2000;
alternative biologics versions were marketed in LATAM also
applied strategic 6
Europe
1998: Start development of
Binocrit® (epoetin alfa)
Mexico
1999: launch of Bioyetin
(epoetin alfa)
Source: applied strategic analysis

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applied strategic 10 years vision for biosimilars

  • 1. applied strategic 10 years experience in biosimilars: launch to the future. What matters most? Presentation by Dr Richard Littlewood 9 March 2016 8th Biosimilars Congregation applied strategic 1
  • 2. Note • This is a copy for distribution of a presentation made by Dr. Richard Littlewood reflecting on 10 years of experience in biosimilars, predicting what matters most for the future. applied strategic 2
  • 3. Analytics What we all know? Definition of similarity concept for biologic medicines defined a new market for biosimilars applied strategic 3 Preclinical PK/PD Clinical Trials Process development Source: McCamish 2011, CMHP/437/04 Biological Characterization Physiochemical Characterization “A company may choose to develop a new biological medicinal product claimed to be “similar” to a reference medicinal product” CHMP/437/04
  • 4. What do we expect? Rapid growth to $35B global market for biosimilars, predicted by observers applied strategic 4 Biosimilars global sales [2013-2020, $B] 60% CAGR Biosimilars Biologics 175 285 2013 2020 Source: Merck Serono 2014, Blackstone & Joseph 2013, EGA 2015, Evaluate Group 2014
  • 5. When did it start? Radical regulatory affairs innovation by EMEA, 2004 and key guidance launched biosimilars applied strategic Source: applied strategic analysis EMA Legal progress Regulatory progress 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Directive 2003/63/EC “Annex I” biosimilars recognition Directive 2004/27/EC published Directive 2004/27/EC in law First biosimilar approved Product guidelines hGh, insulin, EPO, G-CSF Comparability guidelines Quality, non- clinical, clinical guidelines
  • 6. Where did it start? In Europe work started pre-2000; alternative biologics versions were marketed in LATAM also applied strategic 6 Europe 1998: Start development of Binocrit® (epoetin alfa) Mexico 1999: launch of Bioyetin (epoetin alfa) Source: applied strategic analysis
  • 7. What is the impact? Early product launches in Europe highlight commercial and patient access success applied strategic 7 • Launch of biosimilar Epoetin alfa in Europe • 5 year healthcare cumulative savings to Germany, €0.6B • Typically 35% cost reduction • 255,000 patient-years exposure Biosimilar Epoetin Alfa Launch 2007 Commercial & patient access success Source: applied strategic analysis
  • 8. What is the impact? A relatively small set of biosimilar products are currently marketed applied strategic 8 Omnitrope Silapo EpoHexal Binocrit Abseamed Tevagrastim Ratiograstim Biograstim Retracrit Nivestim Remsima Ovaleap Inflectra Grastofil Bemfola Accofil Abasaglar Benepali Zarzio FilgrastimHexal 20162006 2011 Source: GaBI, Biosimilars approved in Europe 2016 European product approvals
  • 9. What is the impact? Few companies own a majority of the assets: market looks an oligopoly… applied strategic 9 Omnitrope Silapo EpoHexal Binocrit Abseamed Tevagrastim Ratiograstim Biograstim Retracrit Nivestim Remsima Ovaleap Inflectra Grastofil Bemfola Accofil Abasaglar Benepali Zarzio FilgrastimHexal 20162006 2011 Source: GaBI, Biosimilars approved in Europe 2016 European product approvals Assets owned by companies with portfolio of biosimiars
  • 10. What is the future? Patent expiry, freedom to operate for many biologics defines a $B expansion of opportunity Monoclonal antibodies approved/ under review in EU/ US [Patent expiry] applied strategic 10 Oncology Non- oncology 17 32 <2020 >2020 Source: applied strategic analysis • 49 monoclonal antibody products have potential for biosimilar launch • Launch of biosimilar versions of these products represents a step change in opportunity size Potential value $20-30B Expiry of patent, year
  • 11. What is the future? New biosimilar products – based on antibodies – imply increasing manufacturing complexity applied strategic 11 Trade Name (INN) Originator Approval date Tysabri® (Natalizumab) Biogen Idec 2004 Lucentis® (Ranibizumab) Roche/ Novartis 2006 Cimzia® (Certolizumab) UCB 2009 Stelara® (Ustekinumab) Johnson & Johnson 2009 Eylea® (Aflibercept) Bayer/ Regeneron 2011 Zaltrap® (Aflibercept) Sanofi/ Regeneron 2012 Prolia®/Xgeva® (Denosumab) Amgen 2011 Benlysta® (Belimumab) GlaxoSmithKline 2011 Soliris® (Eculizumab) Alexion 2007, 2011 Source: applied strategic analysis • Future products with potential to be biosimilars are based on antibodies • Greater manufacturing complexity, defining a special capability need
  • 12. What is the future? Success with biosimilars is driving increasing simplicity in evidence needed for approval applied strategic 12 “a confirmatory clinical trial may not be necessary” EMA 2014 “waiving clinical trials may be accomplishable for biosimilar rhG-CSF” EMA 2015 “pre-licensing safety study, immunogenicity assessment waived? EMA 2015 “PK PD results may make a comparative efficacy study unnecessary” FDA 2015 Source: applied strategic analysis
  • 13. What is the future? A broad range of competitors now are present: partners are a major part of the business applied strategic 13 Merck Serono, Merck Pfizer, Daiichi-Sankyo Boehringer Ingelheim, Biogen Idec Baxter, Lilly, Amgen Sandoz, Teva Hospira, Mylan STADA, Dr. Reddy’s, actavis. Cipla, Gedeon Richter Fujifilm Samsung GE Healthcare Celltrion Innovative companies Generics manufacturers Others Biocon Lonza Formycon Patheon Intas IBA Bioton Zydus Broughton Zydus Wockhardt CMC Rentschler Key partners: supporting development, contract development, manufacturers Competitors: Commercializing biosimilar products Source: applied strategic analysis
  • 14. What drives success? First commercial phase. Success factors: protein characterization, regulatory affairs applied strategic 14 Development Clinical Regulatory Launch Commercial Cell line to product development; protein characterization; comparability Agency relationships, strategic leadership; pathway interpretation Tender management, pricing strategy. Customer awareness Customer awareness, defending against restrictions; Policy management Success Factors for Biosimilar Competition: First Commercial Phase (2006-2016)
  • 15. What drives success? Next 10 years Success factors: commercial power, speed to market applied strategic 15 Development Clinical Regulatory Launch Commercial Complex protein manufacture R&D partnerships Capability to deliver clinical studies rapidly Marketing & Sales power Race to market Success Factors for Biosimilar Competition: Second Commercial Phase (2017-2027)
  • 16. Speaker profile Dr. Richard Littlewood • Richard is the founder of the strategy firm applied strategic • is a physician with clinical practice experience and a management consultant who has worked for 15 years addressing strategic and operational issues in health, pharma • He is a UK GMC registered physician, has an MA from Trinity College, Cambridge and is a graduate of the Sloan Masters management program at London Business School. • Richard pioneered on biosimilars strategy and has extensive experience in many developed and emerging markets. 16 [applied strategic founder] Dr. Richard Littlewood • Adviser to global pharmaceutical companies involved in biosimilar development in Europe, USA and emerging markets since 2006 [Conflicts]