Source: Tim Jackson, Rebound launch: keynote presentation (http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/Downloads/PDF/07/0710ReboundEffect/0710TJKeynote.pdf) “ Technology is an efficiency factor in the equation. Population and affluence are scaling factors. Even as the efficiency of technology improves, affluence and population scale up the impacts. And the overall result depends on improving technological efficiency fast enough to outrun the scale effects of affluence and population.” So these factors are not independent and “appear to be in a self-reinforcing positive feedback between affluence and technology, potentially – and I emphasise potentially – geared in the direction of rising impact” For a quick overview of I=PAT, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_PAT
Source: World Bank Development Indicators (via Google Public Data: http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=eg_use_pcap_kg_oe&idim=country:GBR&dl=en&hl=en&q=energy+use+per+capita#met=eg_use_pcap_kg_oe&idim=country:GBR:CHN:IND:USA:JPN&tdim=true)
Source: Geller H, Harrington P, Rosenfeld A H, Tanishima S and Unander F 2006 Policies for increasing energy efficiency: thirty years of experience in OECD countries Energy Policy 34 556–73 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.11.010 Note that despite these savings of 49%, OECD energy use continues to rise. In 2000 it was 39% higher than in 1973. http://josswinn.posterous.com/polices-for-increasing-energy-efficiency-thir
Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2009/key_stats_2009.pdf I’ve switched from OECD energy consumption to world energy consumption because part of the reduction in energy use in the OECD is due to de-industrialisation and the move to service economies. Energy intensive work has shifted to other places outside the OECD, so it’s misleading to say that our energy consumption has been reduced by x% if we don’t include that which we’ve out-sourced.
Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2009/key_stats_2009.pdf
Source: Launch Presentation of An Assessment of the evidence for economy-wide energy savings from improved energy efficiency http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-index.php?page=ReboundEffect2 “ In developed countries, energy use as conventionally measured has grown more slowly than the economy as a whole. From this, it is generally concluded that technical change has improved the efficiency with which energy is used and thereby helped to ‘decouple’ energy consumption from economic growth. However once different energy sources are weighted by their relative ‘quality’ or economic productivity, the coupling between energy consumption and economic growth appears far stronger. Taken together, the evidence reviewed in this report suggests that: a) the scope for substituting other inputs for energy is relatively limited; b) much technical change has historically increased energy intensity; c) energy may play a more important role in economic growth than is conventionally assumed; and d) economy-wide rebound effects may be larger than is conventionally assumed.”
For sources, see http://joss.blogs.lincoln.ac.uk/2009/11/27/oil-and-the-story-of-energy
The phrase, 'more efficiently unsustainable', is borrowed from Bill Rees: http://joss.blogs.lincoln.ac.uk/2009/11/16/bill-rees-the-vulnerability-and-resilience-of-cities/
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/
Image source: Energy is Everything (http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48731) A ratio of less than 5:1 means that around 20% of the economy has to be used for 'energy gathering', compared to around 2.5% for the USA today. http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2008/09/net-energy-cliff.html Renewables (and nuclear) are less intensive forms of energy than oil, coal and gas. Efficiency gains, even if managed correctly, will not make up for the lower EROEI of renewables.
Is the current form of Higher Education in the UK viable? Developing a resilient education.
Is the current form of Higher Education in the UK viable? Developing a resilient education. Richard Hall (firstname.lastname@example.org, @hallymk1) Joss Winn (email@example.com, @josswinn)
What is the role of higher education, in a world that faces significant disruption?
a slice of HE <ul><li>166 HEIs and 116 universities. </li></ul><ul><li>2007/8: participation for 18-30 years-old = 43%. </li></ul><ul><li>2008/9: 251,300 international students, EU = 117,660. </li></ul><ul><li>Universities employ over 372,400 staff, or 1.2% of UK workforce. </li></ul><ul><li>Responsible for 353,900 jobs in other parts of the economy. </li></ul><ul><li>UK HE generates over £59bn of output for the UK economy, including export earnings of £5.3bn. </li></ul><ul><li>[UUK, 2010] </li></ul>
disruption beyond HE There is a strong correlation between energy use and GDP. Global energy demand is on the rise yet oil supply is forecast to decline in the next few years. There is no precedent for oil discoveries to make up for the shortfall, nor is there a precedent for efficiencies to relieve demand on this scale. Public sector debt is a burden that ultimately requires economic growth to pay it off. Energy supply looks likely to constrain growth. Global emissions currently exceed the IPCC 'marker' scenario range. The Climate Change Act 2008 has made the -80%/2050 target law, yet this requires a national mobilisation akin to war-time. Probably impossible but could radically change the direction of HE in terms of skills required and spending available.
I = P x A x T The impact of human activities (I) is determined by the overall population (P), the level of affluence (A) and the level of technology (T). Even as the efficiency of technology improves, affluence and population scale up the impacts.
Technology as an efficiency factor? Where did the efficiencies go?
We are energy efficient! “ Energy efficiency improvement was an important phenomenon in the global energy balance over the past 30 years. Without energy efficiency improvements, the OECD nations would have used approximately 49% more energy than was actually consumed as of 1998.” Small print: Nevertheless, OECD energy use continues to rise. In 2000 it was 39% higher than in 1973.
In a business-as-usual scenario, global energy demand is forecast to rise by 40% by 2030. Fossil fuels account for over 75% of supply.
(You can't run a consumer society on renewable energy) Net Energy/Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROIE)
A 'Steady State' economy: is this capitalism? <ul><li>New meanings and measures of success </li></ul><ul><li>Limits on materials, energy, wastes and land use? </li></ul><ul><li>More meaningful prices </li></ul><ul><li>More durable, reparable goods </li></ul><ul><li>Fewer status goods </li></ul><ul><li>More informative advertising </li></ul><ul><li>Better screening of technology </li></ul><ul><li>More efficient capital stock </li></ul><ul><li>More local, less global </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced inequality </li></ul><ul><li>Less work, more leisure </li></ul><ul><li>Education for life, not just work </li></ul>Source: http://managingwithoutgrowth.com See also: Steady State Economy FAQ http://www.steadystate.org/CASSEFAQs.html
Some possible outcomes in the next 10-20 years? <ul><li>From 2014, emergency investments required in new energy sources as oil declines and existing power stations decommissioned. We can't afford it. </li></ul><ul><li>Significant increase in cost of energy = Increase in cost of living. Problem with global food supplies. </li></ul><ul><li>Increased reference to 'war on climate change‘; GDP mobilised for this 'war‘. </li></ul><ul><li>IPCC 2014 report worse than 2007. UK Climate Change Act 2008 trashed. </li></ul><ul><li>Shift from mitigation to adaptation efforts. </li></ul><ul><li>Decrease/suspension of democracy. </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in resource wars drains public funds. </li></ul><ul><li>De-growth in developed countries. Decline to state of developing countries. </li></ul><ul><li>2007-8 = 'peak' of public spending on education. </li></ul><ul><li>Contraction in HE sector (real estate/staff/students). “Uneconomic.” </li></ul><ul><li>Growth in informal and/or non-institutional education. </li></ul><ul><li>Increased spending on STEM at cost of all else. Unfailing faith in technology. </li></ul><ul><li>We might be happier. </li></ul>
disruption within HE <ul><li>Power and control: formal and informal education; critical pedagogy; co-production </li></ul><ul><li>Neoliberalism: examples of resistance; co-governance </li></ul><ul><li>Techno-determinism: will the boffins really save us? </li></ul>
What might the act of being a learner in C21st civil society mean?
resilience Rob Hopkins: Transition Culture “ the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganise while undergoing change, so as to retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks” Systemic diversity, modularity, feedback
action we have a choice between reliance on government and its resources, and its approach to command and control, or developing an empowering day-to-day community resilience. Such resilience develops engagement, education, empowerment and encouragement Political action or civil action? [DEMOS, nef]
Towards a curriculum for resilience? <ul><li>Complexity and increasing uncertainty in the world demands resilience </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated and social, rather than a subject-driven </li></ul><ul><li>Engaging with uncertainty through projects that involve diverse voices in civil action </li></ul><ul><li>Discourses of power – co-governance? </li></ul><ul><li>Authentic partnerships, mentoring and enquiry, in method, context, interpretation and action </li></ul>
Does higher education enable C21st society to address disruption? What should be done? Resilience: w hat do we value?
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