Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
Medium-term Coal Market Report 2012Keisuke Sadamori. Director, Energy Markets and Security.Paris, 18 December 2012        ...
Business as usual                  Global primary energy supply from fossil fuels      Coal demand keep growing      And...
China is coal. Coal is China                 Fossil fuel demand in major consuming regions           * The increase in US ...
Power generation in non-OECD is crucial                                                                  Absolute         ...
US shale gas switches on coal in Europe     USD/GJ                                                                        ...
A golden age of coal in Europe?    Low carbon prices: the Eurozone crisis is a surprise, but the renewable ramp     up is...
Moving East                                                       Seaborne                          59 Mt                 ...
Coal prices are back in sync        USD/t        350        300        250        200        150        100         50    ...
Indonesia-China, a good partnership                                                              Seaborne steam coal trade...
From Beijing to India?                       Selected investments of Indian companies in coal assets                      ...
Chinese slow-down can affect seabornecoal trade                             Thermal coal                                  ...
Two steps forward         Outlook for global export capacity utilisation for seaborne hard coal until 2017     Mtpa     2 ...
Is slow-down already happening?  BREAKING NEWS                                  © OECD/IEA 2012
KEY MESSAGES Coal demand rises over the outlook period, approaching oil Driven mainly by power generation in non OECD co...
Thank you for your attention                               © OECD/IEA 2012
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

0

Share

Download to read offline

IEA: Coal Boom Unabated, Europe's Binge Temporary

Download to read offline

The Medium-term Coal Market Report from the International Energy Agency makes for sobering -- if not surprising -- reading for anyone concerned about greenhouse-driven climate change.

Presentation made in Paris, Dec. 18, 2012, by Keisuke Sadamori. Director, Energy Markets and Security.
More on coal at Dot Earth:
http://bit.ly/dotCoal
More from IEA: http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2012/december/name,34441,en.html

  • Be the first to like this

IEA: Coal Boom Unabated, Europe's Binge Temporary

  1. Medium-term Coal Market Report 2012Keisuke Sadamori. Director, Energy Markets and Security.Paris, 18 December 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
  2. Business as usual Global primary energy supply from fossil fuels  Coal demand keep growing  And so, too, coal trade © OECD/IEA 2012
  3. China is coal. Coal is China Fossil fuel demand in major consuming regions * The increase in US oil demand in 2012 is caused by differing definitions. While historic data for US oil demand are based on IEA’s Oil Information, projections of US demand refer to US50 oil demand as defined in Table 2 of IEA’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2012. © OECD/IEA 2012
  4. Power generation in non-OECD is crucial Absolute Total coal-based electricity production growth in 2009 and 2010 2009/10 TWh 700 35% 600 30% 500 25% 400 20% 300 15% 200 10% 100 5% 0 0% 2009 2010 Relative growth 2009/10 © OECD/IEA 2012
  5. US shale gas switches on coal in Europe USD/GJ Mt 6 3,5 5 3 2,5 4 2 3 1,5 2 1 1 0,5 0 0 US steam coal exports to Europe (right axis) Northwest Europe (ARA CIF) Henry Hub price Coal price in Central Appalachia  Higher transportation costs for gas hinders regional integration  In Europe, coal reacts stronger than gas to US low prices © OECD/IEA 2012
  6. A golden age of coal in Europe?  Low carbon prices: the Eurozone crisis is a surprise, but the renewable ramp up is not  Gas to coal switch is already limited by system operation constrains  The need for conventional generation is declining  Decomissioning of old plants is sure, but economics of new coal to build is questionable © OECD/IEA 2012
  7. Moving East Seaborne 59 Mt exports from Russia 34 Mt (93 Mt) 109 Mt 19 Mt Seaborne Seaborne Seaborne Seaborne imports to exports from exports from imports to the Atlantic the Atlantic the Pacific the Pacific Basin Basin Basin Basin (218 Mt) (128 Mt) (498 Mt) (573 Mt) 20 Mt 478 Mt Seaborne 29 Mt exports from 42 Mt South Africa (71 Mt) Atlantic Basin Suppliers to both markets Pacific Basin © OECD/IEA 2012
  8. Coal prices are back in sync USD/t 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Newcastle steam coal (FOB) Ultra-low volatile PCI coal (FOB) Australian prime hard coking coal (FOB) © OECD/IEA 2012
  9. Indonesia-China, a good partnership Seaborne steam coal trade Steam coal imports to China 2009 2010  Indonesia meets much of (104 Mt) (133 Mt) Chinese demand  For Chinese utilities, Indonesian coal is a good option  For low cost Indonesian Australia Canada United States Other OECD Colombia producers, Chinese coal thirst was Indonesia South Af rica Russia Vietnam Other good business © OECD/IEA 2012
  10. From Beijing to India? Selected investments of Indian companies in coal assets Capital Number of Acquired resources/reserves Country expenditure investments (Mt) (USD Million) Australia 9 17 138 7 612 Indonesia 28 6 271 4 526 South Africa 4 377 3 300 United States 3 348 820 Total 44 24 134 16 258 © OECD/IEA 2012
  11. Chinese slow-down can affect seabornecoal trade Thermal coal Metallurgical coal Exporters Importers Exporters Importers Mtce 100 80 Higher in the BCS 60 40 20 0 Lower in the BCS -20 -40 2017 Australia Russia United States Other exporters China Other importers © OECD/IEA 2012
  12. Two steps forward Outlook for global export capacity utilisation for seaborne hard coal until 2017 Mtpa 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 2010 2011 2013 2015 2017 Existing export capacity Probable expansions Potential expansions Port capacity Exports historic Exports - BCS Exports - CSDC © OECD/IEA 2012
  13. Is slow-down already happening? BREAKING NEWS © OECD/IEA 2012
  14. KEY MESSAGES Coal demand rises over the outlook period, approaching oil Driven mainly by power generation in non OECD countries Shale gas revolution led to decline in coal consumption in the US, and toincreased use of coal in Europe The large gas-to-coal switch in Europe is projected to peak in 2013 Whereas China will surpass the rest of the world in coal consumption,India will gain importance in coal market, becoming the largest seabornecoal importer Seaborne coal trade will continue to increase unless there is a slowdownin Chinese economyAnnouncements of cuts and layoffs, despite many projects in the pipeline © OECD/IEA 2012
  15. Thank you for your attention © OECD/IEA 2012

The Medium-term Coal Market Report from the International Energy Agency makes for sobering -- if not surprising -- reading for anyone concerned about greenhouse-driven climate change. Presentation made in Paris, Dec. 18, 2012, by Keisuke Sadamori. Director, Energy Markets and Security. More on coal at Dot Earth: http://bit.ly/dotCoal More from IEA: http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2012/december/name,34441,en.html

Views

Total views

5,375

On Slideshare

0

From embeds

0

Number of embeds

368

Actions

Downloads

29

Shares

0

Comments

0

Likes

0

×