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Intergenerational Commission slides - demographic trends and their impact on living standards

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A presentation by Resolution Foundation's David Finch for the event 'Living longer and living differently', part of the Intergenerational Commission.

Published in: News & Politics
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Intergenerational Commission slides - demographic trends and their impact on living standards

  1. 1. Live long and prosper? Demographic trends and their impact on living standards
  2. 2. People are living longer Intergencommission.org 2 Source: ONS, 2014-based UK and England & Wales lifetables Average expected years of life at birth for females by generation
  3. 3. Each generation is living longer than the next (on average) Intergencommission.org 3 Survival rates for different generations, Males, 1896 to 2015 Source: ONS, 2014-based UK and England & Wales lifetables
  4. 4. Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge too Intergencommission.org 4 • Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer lives
  5. 5. Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge too Intergencommission.org 5 • Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer lives • Collectively there are concerns that an ageing population will raise the tax burden (or lower available support) for younger generations
  6. 6. Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge too Intergencommission.org 6 • Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer lives • Collectively there are concerns that an ageing population will raise the tax burden (or lower available support) for younger generations • But we are not our grandparents. How we live is dynamic, not a static thing
  7. 7. Changing lives: 1) investing more in their education Intergencommission.org 7 Source: ONS, 2014-based UK lifetables and England & Wales lifetables Proportion of children in full-time education, 1953 to 2010
  8. 8. Changing lives: 2) having children at later ages (and fewer) Intergencommission.org 8 Proportion of women by age of mother having first child Source: ONS, Live births in England and Wales, 2013
  9. 9. Changing lives: 3) working longer Intergencommission.org 9 Female employment rates by age for different generations Source: Resolution Foundation analysis using Labour Force Survey microdata
  10. 10. Changing state: Not just dealing with longevity, but also cohort size. That complicates things. There are a lot of baby boomers Intergencommission.org 10 Number of births by years (millions) Source: ONS, UK & England Wales live births, 2015
  11. 11. The Baby boomer generation boosted the young population in 1950s and 1960s… Intergencommission.org 11 UK population by generation, 1965 Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK
  12. 12. Boosted the working age population in the following decades… Intergencommission.org 12 UK population by generation, 1985 Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK
  13. 13. Boosted the working age population in the following decades… Intergencommission.org 13 UK population by generation, 2010 Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK
  14. 14. …and are are now set to speed the increase in the ageing of the population Intergencommission.org 14 UK population by generation, 2036 Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, UK
  15. 15. Traditional support ratio suggests a striking problem about to hit, but this is too simplistic an argument Intergencommission.org 15 Support ratio (ages 20-64/(under 20 + 65 plus)) Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, mid-year population estimates, UK
  16. 16. An ‘effective’ support ratio (working v non-working population) is less dramatic – though still simplistic Intergencommission.org 16 Effective support ratio (employees/non-working) Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, mid-year population estimates, UK, Labour Market Statistics, BoE historic data
  17. 17. Longer lives bring opportunity and challenge Intergencommission.org 17 • Demographics are changing people’s approach to life, work and family formation • Younger generations are set to benefit from continued gains in longevity • But they also face different challenges to older generations, particularly from work, housing, wealth and retirement planning • These are all issues the Intergenerational Commission will focus on in the coming months Source: ONS, 2014-based UK lifetables and England & Wales lifetables
  18. 18. Live long and prosper? Demographic trends and their impact on living standards

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