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Netscribes Budget Analysis 2013 : Missing the woods for the trees

The budget analysis document provides a summary of key aspects of the 2013 Indian budget. It highlights that while the budget aimed to address certain sectors, it lacked a clear growth strategy and big reforms. It notes some positive steps like increased farm lending and fiscal deficit targets, but argues more could have been done to boost growth, investment and relieve inflation pressures. The summary critiques the budget for failing to meaningfully tax the rich or benefit the middle class.

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EXCLUSIVE



Budget Analysis
                                              Budget                                           Analysis
                                       2013
 BudgetHighlights
                                                                                                                       2013



                                              Missing the woods for
HAPPY LOT

Investors



                                              the trees
The hike in income threshold to invest
in Rajiv Gandhi Equity Saving Scheme
(RGESS) is good news for new investors
to the stock market

Salaried Class
Middle Income Group earning upto 5 lakhs
will enjoy Income Tax credit of INR 2000                With probably the worst          on SUVs or mobile phones were
                                                        possible economic backdrop       mysterious     considering    these
Agriculture                                             in recent years and an           were two robust growth sectors
40% larger allocation at Rs 7,00,000          election round the corner, one could       – and they affected domestic
crore has been provided for farm loans        possibly argue that Chidambaram’s          manufacturers and the middle
with interest discounts                       hands were a bit tied. But that is         class too.
                                              why he is Chidambaram, and the •	 Given the high interest environment
Real Estate
                                              expectations were growth-oriented, if      and the fact that banks have
Affordable house for buyers willing
to buy upto 25 lakhs will enjoy               not Big Bang.                              actually been extending tenors of
tax benefits                                                                             home loans to individuals to keep
                                              Did he deliver? Maybe, when it came        EMIs low, what was the harm of
Garments
                                              to micro changes here and there, but       extending the Rs 25 lacs limit to all
Apparel prices may be reduced or at least
will not be increased anytime soon, say       there was really no big picture, no        home loans?
retailers, as the Budget has announced a      big impetus or intent towards growth •	 How could the FM ignore things
zero excise duty on cotton and yarn at the    or big relief to citizens reeling under    like the medical allowance limit of
garment stage
                                              inflationary pressures. Yes, one can       Rs 15,000 per month or the travel
Gems and Precious Stones                      argue that a lot is left to the Reserve    allowance of Rs 800 per month in
Buying gems will become slightly cheaper,     Bank of India, but a lot more could        such inflationary healthcare and
as the duty on precious and semi-precious     have been done to lift the sentiment       transport environments? (Not to
stones has been cut from 10 to 2%
                                              – one of the biggest drivers to            mention the oil price hike again
Healthcare                                    investments and growth. The oil price      after the Budget).
The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare     hike that followed could not have been •	 In short, what did he really take
has been allocated Rs 37,330 crore in the     worse timed.                               away from the rich and what did
proposed Budget
                                                                                         he really give to the middle class,
                                              With GDP dipping below 5% in several       or, for that matter, the markets
UNHAPPY LOT                                   quarters, people were looking out for      or industry?
                                              the growth signal. They were probably
Automobiles
                                              looking out for some relief too. But Chidambaram says, “the key to start
High end automobiles will cost more
because of revised excise duty/custom         then came a series of delicate jokes:   the growth engine is to attract more
duty in SUVs, high end vehicles and                                                   investment    both    from    domestic
motorcycles                                   •	 A meagre 10% surcharge on the investors and foreign investors”. Yes,
                                                  super rich earning more than Rs understood, but how? This cannot
Cigarettes
Cigarettes, the staple item for duty hikes        1 crore a year was really more happen by throwing numbers or
every Budget, has not been spared this            symbolic rather than impactful planning Budgets, it can only happen
time too, with the duty raised by 2% to           considering if the government with real policy measures and an
18%
                                                  was really serious, they could impetus for growth. Has he missed the
Media                                             have easily introduced another woods for the trees?
New   cable   connection may   also               40% slab.
cost more as duty on imported set-            •	 A paltry Rs 2,000 tax rebate to
top boxes, or STBs, has been raised
                                                  those earning up to Rs 5 lacs and
by 5%
                                                  more in the current inflationary
High Income Group                                 environment was probably more of
Individuals with annual salary of more            an insult than a gift.
than INR 1 crore will have to pay 10
                                              •	 And what was the message to
percent additional surcharge
                                                  those sectors doing well during
                                                  the downturn? The higher duties
Budget Analysis                       2013




Islands of happiness
          Despite the lack of a big
          picture, Chidambaram has
          sent small signals with
          respect to different avenues
to invite greater investments in these
areas and depict a healthier India. A
lot, however, will depend on the goals
versus the achievements.

Fiscal deficit
The biggest concern for foreign
investors looking at India apart from
the pace of policy reforms was the
country’s fiscal deficit. With credit
rating agencies closely watching
countries following the European
crisis, India had the task of reigning in
its fiscal deficit to remain an attractive
investment destination. The Budget
proposal to contain the FY’14 fiscal         offers the Look East policy to provide    Haldia Port to the Farakka Powerplant.
deficit to below 5% of the GDP (target       connectivity for the North Eastern
is 4.8% of GDP) against 5.2% of GDP          states to Myanmar. This will provide      Taxation
in 2012-13 is a very brave and positive      an impetus in economic growth of the     There have been no major changes in
goal. This will involve a reduction in       North Eastern states in view of the      Direct or Indirect taxes in the Budget
non-plan expenditure from 12.3%              easy accessibility to the mainland. The  proposal, however, much awaited tax
to 10.8% while increasing the tax            present proposal is to connect North     reform measures like the Direct Tax
revenues from 16.7% to 19.1%.                Eastern states to Myanmar, which is      Code (DTC) and Goods and Service
Chidambaram expects a large portion          a part of the grand India – Myanmar      Tax (GST) has received an impetus.
of the revenues to come from the             – Thailand highway connectivity plan     The Finance Minister has proposed to
spectrum auctions (Rs 40,000 crore)          for East Asia integration. This will     introduce DTC and GST in this fiscal
and disinvestments (Rs 58,000 crore)         require assistance of the World Bank     itself which will be a major boost to
with a similar amount of Rs 100,000          and the Asian Development Bank           industrial growth. In view of the
crore coming from an increase in             which may encourage fund flow in the     continuous opposition by some of
tax revenues.                                Infrastructure Sector.                   the states for introduction of GST,
                                                                                      the Finance Minister has agreed
However, with no major taxation              The Budget also proposes the to compensate the affected states
proposed in the Budget, to increase          development of two new ports – one in adequately for revised rate of Central
the tax revenue by Rs 100000 crore,          Andhra Pradesh and the other in West Sales Tax (CST).
the growth should be in the range of         Bengal, with capacity of 100 million ton
6.5% to 7%. Considering this fiscal’s        cargo handling per annum. Further, a With regard to Income Tax, there
growth would not exceed 5.5%, it may         new outer harbour will be developed has been no change in Tax slabs
be a major challenge to achieve 6.5-         in Tamil Nadu. This development will and rates. For taxing the super rich,
7% growth in the next fiscal to earn         involve      Public-Private-Partnership 10% surcharge has been proposed
the additional tax revenue and thereby       (PPP) with an estimated investment for income above Rs 1 crore. For the
reduce the fiscal deficit.                   of Rs 7,500 crore with an estimated middle class, a token tax relief has
                                             capacity of 42 million tons.             been extended in the form of tax credit
Infrastructure                                                                        of Rs 2,000 for income up to Rs 5 lacs.
Under the current fiscal condition,          Five inland waterways have been The FY’14 estimates peg income tax
considering the subdued demand for           declared as national waterways. The growth at 16.9% as against 11.2% in
manufacturing goods as reflected by          Haldia to Farakka stretch in West FY’13. The Service Tax revenue growth
sluggish growth in IIP data recently,        Bengal has been awarded the first has been assumed at 36% of the gross
the next major growth area should be         transport contract. This will help in tax revenue as against 13% in the
the Infrastructure Sector. This Budget       transportation of imported coal from last fiscal.
Budget Analysis                        2013



Agriculture                                   textile manufacturing include the
The agricultural community constitutes        establishment of textile parks under         Key budget figures
a major part of our population. To            Scheme for ‘Integrated Textile Parks’
cater to the requirements of this             (SITP) which will house apparel              	                        FY13 (RE)	 FY14 (BE)
sector, a 40% larger allocation at Rs         manufacturing units. An amount of            Budget size 	                 14,308	   16,653
7,00,000 crore has been provided for          Rs 50 crore has been allocated to the        Gross tax-GDP ratio (%)	        10.4	     10.9
farm loans with interest discounts.           Ministry of textiles in order to provide     Receipt/expenditure
The growth in the agricultural sector         supplementary funding of Rs 10 crore         growth (%)	                     14.3	     14.6
is of prime importance considering the        for each textile park.                       Net govt. borrowing
fact that to achieve 9% growth; the                                                        (Rs bn)	                       4,674	    4,840
farming sector needs to grow by 4%.           Healthcare                                   Fiscal deficit-GDP
Therefore, it may be considered as a          India is steadily gaining importance as      ratio (%)	                       5.2	      4.8
move in the right direction.                  a medical tourism hub and is attracting
                                              patients from all over the world for         RE-Revised estimates, BE-Budget
Encouraged by the robust production           inexpensive and effective treatments.        estimates Source: Government of India
in cereal crops in the eastern states,        Also, with higher disposable incomes
the Budget proposes a Second                  and the higher occurrence of lifestyle      crore for the 6 AIIMS-like institutions
Green Revolution in these states to           diseases the healthcare market in India     that have already commenced their
encourage cash crops as alternatives          is witnessing tremendous potential.         academic session and are expected
to traditional crops like rice, wheat etc .   This year, the Budget allocated Rs          to initiate operations of the attached
Moreover, two National level institutes       66,165 crore to the Indian healthcare       hospitals by 2013-14.
will be established at Chattishgarh           space. The Ministry of Health and
and Jharkhand which will serve as             Family Welfare has been allocated           Education
centers for excellence in agricultural        Rs 37,330 crore in the proposed             A greater expenditure on education will
bio-technology.                               Budget; out of which the new National       have a positive impact on companies
                                              Health Mission that combines the            providing education and IT related
Manufacturing and                             rural mission and proposed urban            services such as Educomp, NIIT,
Construction                                  mission will be allocated Rs 21,239         Aptech etc.
For an economy to be truly developed,         crore. Medical education, training and
one of the prerequisites is a robust          research have been considered for a         The Budget proposes a 7% increase in
manufacturing sector. However, a              proposed provision of Rs 4,727 crore.       the allocation of Rs 27,258 crore for
sluggish manufacturing sector has             The National Programme for Health           education under the Right to Education
been weighing on the country’s                Care of Elderly is set to be executed in    Act and the Sarva Shikshya Abhiyaan
growth, as reflected by recent IIP data.      100 selected districts of 21 states. The    (RTE-SSA). It also provides Rs 3,924
To provide a boost to the sector, the         government has also shown interest          crore    for   Rashtriya    Madhyamik
Union Budget 2013-14 has proposed a           to mainstream Ayurveda, Unani,              Shikshya Abhiyaan (RMSA). A sum of
number of development measures for            Siddha and Homoeopathy through              Rs 1,000 crore has been allocated for
the manufacturing industry.                   National Health Mission for which Rs        Nation Skill Development Corporation
                                              1,069 crore is being allotted to the        (NSDC) for attracting youth to job
Semiconductor wafer fab plays an              Department of AYUSH. The Budget             based vocational trainings.
important role in the eco-system of           also declared allocation of Rs 1,650
electronics manufacturing. In order
to promote the manufacturing of
electronic goods, incentives will be          Non-Plan Expenditure Estimates
provided to semiconductor wafer
fab manufacturing facilities which            	                                                          Non-Plan Expenditure

include zero customs duty for plant           Rs Crores	                              2012-13 RE	       2013-14 BE*	          Growth %
and machinery. A reduction in duty on
                                              Interest Payments and Debt Servicing	      319759	            360000	                13%
specified machinery for manufacture
                                              Defense and service	                       193407	            206000	                 7%
of leather and leather goods, including
footwear, from 7.5% to 5% has been            Fertilizer Subsidy	                        100974	                85000	             -16%
announced in the Budget.                      Food Subsidy	                              100000	            125000	                25%
                                              Petroleum Subsidy	                          72260	                40000	             -45%
Under   the   Budget  for  FY’14,             Total Non Plan Expenditure	              1063580	1111000	                             4%
the concession period has been
                                              *Estimated
extended for the manufacturers                			
of environment friendly vehicles.             Sources: MOF			
Also, proposed measures to boost
Budget Analysis                      2013




 Key Economic Indicators
                                                                                      Real Estate
                                                                                      The Union Budget has given the
 India Economic Data	 Latest	 Month	 Previous	 Month on                               Real Estate sector and the home
 			 Month	Month
  				 change %
                                                                                      buyers something to look forward to.
 				                                                                                 Allocation of the rural housing fund
 IIP growth % y-o-y	               -0.10%	       Nov-12	      8.20%	    -2.22%        has been raised to Rs 6,000 crore
 Manufacturing % y-o-y	             0.30%	       Nov-12	      9.60%	    -2.14%        along with an Urban housing fund of
 WPI y-o-y*	                        7.18%	       Dec-12	      7.24%	    -0.30%        Rs 2,000 crore. First time home buyers
 Exports USD billion	                 0.25	      Dec-12	       0.22	    11.57%
                                                                                      will get an increased interest deduction
                                                                                      of Rs 1 lac for loans up to Rs 25 lacs.
 Imports USD billion	                 0.43	      Dec-12	       0.42	     2.19%
                                                                                      The Budget has introduced TDS at 1%
 Trade Balance USD billion	          -0.18	      Dec-12	       -0.19	   -8.66%        on the value of immovable property
 Bank deposit growth % y-o-y	      11.10%	       Dec-12	    12.80%	      0.53%        exceeding Rs 50 lacs. These measures
 Bank credit growth % y-o-y 	      15.10%	       Dec-12	    17.00%	      1.37%        are expected to boost demand for the
 *Expected                                                                            affordable housing segment.
 	                                          			
 Source: CSO, RBI, Government				                                                     Automobiles
                                                                                      While the proposed Budget has had
                                                                                      a neutral impact on the Auto sector,
Energy and Utilities                        to significantly reduce the import        manufacturers of sports utility vehicles
Keeping a focus on encouraging              of electronics. Furthermore, the          (SUVs) and high end automobiles are
alternative       energy      generation    government has focused on the             not happy. A negative has been the
methods, the Union Budget has               promotion of the manufacturing of set     increased excise duty levied on sports
proposed incentives for green energy        top boxes in the nation itself. In this   utility vehicles (SUVs) to 30% from the
and quite a few tax incentives for the      financial year’s Budget, import duty      existing 27%, on the grounds of higher
energy sector. The ‘generation based        levied on set top boxes have been         occupancy of parking and road space.
incentive’ for the wind energy sector has   increased from 5% to 10%.                 Import duty on superbikes and high
been reintroduced with a reservation                                                  end cars has also been hiked, and now
of Rs 800 crore. Municipalities are         Some of the other proposals from          stands at 100% from 75% previously
encouraged to participate in the            this year’s Budget include banking        for fully built cars and 75% from 60%
Public-Private-Partnership         (PPP)    norms compliance, ATM expansion,          earlier for motorcycles above 800cc.
model and generate power from urban         transforming post offices and the
waste. The Government has also              textile sector and rolling out Aadhaar Meanwhile, the Jawaharlal Nehru
removed customs duty on electrical          enabled     payments      for   several National Urban Renewal Mission
plant and machinery and plans to shift      government schemes.                     (JnNURM) has been provided Rs
to the revenue sharing model from                                                   14,873 crore. Of this amount, a
the profit sharing model in all oil and     Media and Entertainment                 significant portion will be used for the
gas projects.                               The proposed Budget brings cheer to purchase of 10,000 buses especially
                                            the FM broadcasting sector by adding for the hilly regions.
Telecom, IT and Electronics                 more cities under the government’s
This year, there were some significant      initiative for expansion of the FM Social Sector
Budget announcements in this space.         circle. The expansion of FM stations In the Social Sector, the Government
However, the        telecom industry        in 294 cities in the country has been has proposed some bold steps to
was largely disappointed due to the         announced. As a reference to Phase III manage the fiscal deficit. The Budget
absence of any announcement related         expansion of FM Radio for which the aims at reduction of subsidies in the
to tax relief. On the contrary, there       Information and Broadcasting ministry area of petroleum, food and fertilizers.
will be 6% duty on all mobile phones        is already working, the Finance As against the subsidy of 2.6% in the
priced above Rs 2,000 which adding to       Minister has announced that 839 new last fiscal, the proposed subsidy for
the burden of the industry as well as       FM radio channels will be auctioned.    this fiscal stands at 2%. Nonetheless,
the consumers.                                                                      considering the political scenario in
                                            Last year witnessed full exemption the country, reduction of subsidy as
The Indian Finance Ministry has             of service tax on copyright and proposed in the Budget may prove to
proposed some positive initiatives,         cinematography, in line with the be a major challenge.
especially     in   the    hardware         industry demands. This year, the
manufacturing segment. As proposed          FM gave in further to the demands In the area of National Rural
in the Union Budget, the government         by exempting sector Service Tax on Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA)
will initiate the promotion of chip         copyright on cinematography for the allocation remains unchanged.
manufacturing in India in order             movies exhibited at theaters.
Budget Analysis                     2013



During FY’14, the ministry will focus      as a positive approach in this direction,
                                                                                  As against the ruling price in the world
on controlling food inflation and          the Budget has proposed some           market of around $14 per unit, the
augmenting the supply side to meet         major reform measures to encourage     current price for Indian producers is
the growing demand for food items.         investment in the country in the form  pegged at less than $5; this is drying
An amount of Rs 10,000 crore has           of Domestic Investment (DI) and        up investment in this crucial area both
been allocated as incremental cost for     Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Also, by domestic and foreign investors. The
National Food Security Bill. In order      the advent of DTC and GST will have a  current Budget proposes to review the
to attract investment and enhance          very positive impact on the sentiment  gas pricing and oil exploration policy.
productivity of livestock base, the        of investors.                          Once that is done, it is expected to
‘National Livestock Mission’ will be                                              attract more investment in areas like
launched for which an amount of            In the past, the General Anti shale gas.
Rs 307 crore has been allocated. In        Avoidance Rule (GAAR) has conveyed
addition, a financial support of Rs 5000   a wrong message to the international All in all, the Union Budget for FY’14
crore will be provided to NABARD for       investor community. In this Budget, failed to receive a thumbs up from
construction of warehouses, godowns,       it has been proposed that GAAR will the industry, especially since the
                                                                                  expectations were much higher from
silos and cold storage units for storage   be postponed for implementation
                                                                                  Chidambaram after his big bang
of agricultural produce, both in public    to 2016. The Government has also
                                                                                  reform announcements over the past
and private sectors. Moreover, a           proposed to differentiate between several months. Experts opine that it
company will receive an investment         Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) kept the macro promises such as the
allowance of 15%, if it invests Rs 100     and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). one on fiscal deficit while some believe
crore or more in plant and machinery       Holding stake of 10% or lower by a its outcome will be evident laterin the
during this period.                        Foreign Investor will be considered as year. No matter which side we take, a
                                           FII and above 10% will be considered Budget is only as good as the last one
Potential for Growth                       as FDI.                                till it delivers what it sets out to do.
Although India is the 3rd economy in
Asia, the major challenge that faces In recent times, gas price fixation
the country today is to attain optimum has become a major deterrent for
GDP growth of 6.5% in 2014. However, investment in the Oil and Gas sector.

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Netscribes Budget Analysis 2013 : Missing the woods for the trees

  • 1. EXCLUSIVE Budget Analysis Budget Analysis 2013 BudgetHighlights 2013 Missing the woods for HAPPY LOT Investors the trees The hike in income threshold to invest in Rajiv Gandhi Equity Saving Scheme (RGESS) is good news for new investors to the stock market Salaried Class Middle Income Group earning upto 5 lakhs will enjoy Income Tax credit of INR 2000 With probably the worst on SUVs or mobile phones were possible economic backdrop mysterious considering these Agriculture in recent years and an were two robust growth sectors 40% larger allocation at Rs 7,00,000 election round the corner, one could – and they affected domestic crore has been provided for farm loans possibly argue that Chidambaram’s manufacturers and the middle with interest discounts hands were a bit tied. But that is class too. why he is Chidambaram, and the • Given the high interest environment Real Estate expectations were growth-oriented, if and the fact that banks have Affordable house for buyers willing to buy upto 25 lakhs will enjoy not Big Bang. actually been extending tenors of tax benefits home loans to individuals to keep Did he deliver? Maybe, when it came EMIs low, what was the harm of Garments to micro changes here and there, but extending the Rs 25 lacs limit to all Apparel prices may be reduced or at least will not be increased anytime soon, say there was really no big picture, no home loans? retailers, as the Budget has announced a big impetus or intent towards growth • How could the FM ignore things zero excise duty on cotton and yarn at the or big relief to citizens reeling under like the medical allowance limit of garment stage inflationary pressures. Yes, one can Rs 15,000 per month or the travel Gems and Precious Stones argue that a lot is left to the Reserve allowance of Rs 800 per month in Buying gems will become slightly cheaper, Bank of India, but a lot more could such inflationary healthcare and as the duty on precious and semi-precious have been done to lift the sentiment transport environments? (Not to stones has been cut from 10 to 2% – one of the biggest drivers to mention the oil price hike again Healthcare investments and growth. The oil price after the Budget). The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare hike that followed could not have been • In short, what did he really take has been allocated Rs 37,330 crore in the worse timed. away from the rich and what did proposed Budget he really give to the middle class, With GDP dipping below 5% in several or, for that matter, the markets UNHAPPY LOT quarters, people were looking out for or industry? the growth signal. They were probably Automobiles looking out for some relief too. But Chidambaram says, “the key to start High end automobiles will cost more because of revised excise duty/custom then came a series of delicate jokes: the growth engine is to attract more duty in SUVs, high end vehicles and investment both from domestic motorcycles • A meagre 10% surcharge on the investors and foreign investors”. Yes, super rich earning more than Rs understood, but how? This cannot Cigarettes Cigarettes, the staple item for duty hikes 1 crore a year was really more happen by throwing numbers or every Budget, has not been spared this symbolic rather than impactful planning Budgets, it can only happen time too, with the duty raised by 2% to considering if the government with real policy measures and an 18% was really serious, they could impetus for growth. Has he missed the Media have easily introduced another woods for the trees? New cable connection may also 40% slab. cost more as duty on imported set- • A paltry Rs 2,000 tax rebate to top boxes, or STBs, has been raised those earning up to Rs 5 lacs and by 5% more in the current inflationary High Income Group environment was probably more of Individuals with annual salary of more an insult than a gift. than INR 1 crore will have to pay 10 • And what was the message to percent additional surcharge those sectors doing well during the downturn? The higher duties
  • 2. Budget Analysis 2013 Islands of happiness Despite the lack of a big picture, Chidambaram has sent small signals with respect to different avenues to invite greater investments in these areas and depict a healthier India. A lot, however, will depend on the goals versus the achievements. Fiscal deficit The biggest concern for foreign investors looking at India apart from the pace of policy reforms was the country’s fiscal deficit. With credit rating agencies closely watching countries following the European crisis, India had the task of reigning in its fiscal deficit to remain an attractive investment destination. The Budget proposal to contain the FY’14 fiscal offers the Look East policy to provide Haldia Port to the Farakka Powerplant. deficit to below 5% of the GDP (target connectivity for the North Eastern is 4.8% of GDP) against 5.2% of GDP states to Myanmar. This will provide Taxation in 2012-13 is a very brave and positive an impetus in economic growth of the There have been no major changes in goal. This will involve a reduction in North Eastern states in view of the Direct or Indirect taxes in the Budget non-plan expenditure from 12.3% easy accessibility to the mainland. The proposal, however, much awaited tax to 10.8% while increasing the tax present proposal is to connect North reform measures like the Direct Tax revenues from 16.7% to 19.1%. Eastern states to Myanmar, which is Code (DTC) and Goods and Service Chidambaram expects a large portion a part of the grand India – Myanmar Tax (GST) has received an impetus. of the revenues to come from the – Thailand highway connectivity plan The Finance Minister has proposed to spectrum auctions (Rs 40,000 crore) for East Asia integration. This will introduce DTC and GST in this fiscal and disinvestments (Rs 58,000 crore) require assistance of the World Bank itself which will be a major boost to with a similar amount of Rs 100,000 and the Asian Development Bank industrial growth. In view of the crore coming from an increase in which may encourage fund flow in the continuous opposition by some of tax revenues. Infrastructure Sector. the states for introduction of GST, the Finance Minister has agreed However, with no major taxation The Budget also proposes the to compensate the affected states proposed in the Budget, to increase development of two new ports – one in adequately for revised rate of Central the tax revenue by Rs 100000 crore, Andhra Pradesh and the other in West Sales Tax (CST). the growth should be in the range of Bengal, with capacity of 100 million ton 6.5% to 7%. Considering this fiscal’s cargo handling per annum. Further, a With regard to Income Tax, there growth would not exceed 5.5%, it may new outer harbour will be developed has been no change in Tax slabs be a major challenge to achieve 6.5- in Tamil Nadu. This development will and rates. For taxing the super rich, 7% growth in the next fiscal to earn involve Public-Private-Partnership 10% surcharge has been proposed the additional tax revenue and thereby (PPP) with an estimated investment for income above Rs 1 crore. For the reduce the fiscal deficit. of Rs 7,500 crore with an estimated middle class, a token tax relief has capacity of 42 million tons. been extended in the form of tax credit Infrastructure of Rs 2,000 for income up to Rs 5 lacs. Under the current fiscal condition, Five inland waterways have been The FY’14 estimates peg income tax considering the subdued demand for declared as national waterways. The growth at 16.9% as against 11.2% in manufacturing goods as reflected by Haldia to Farakka stretch in West FY’13. The Service Tax revenue growth sluggish growth in IIP data recently, Bengal has been awarded the first has been assumed at 36% of the gross the next major growth area should be transport contract. This will help in tax revenue as against 13% in the the Infrastructure Sector. This Budget transportation of imported coal from last fiscal.
  • 3. Budget Analysis 2013 Agriculture textile manufacturing include the The agricultural community constitutes establishment of textile parks under Key budget figures a major part of our population. To Scheme for ‘Integrated Textile Parks’ cater to the requirements of this (SITP) which will house apparel FY13 (RE) FY14 (BE) sector, a 40% larger allocation at Rs manufacturing units. An amount of Budget size 14,308 16,653 7,00,000 crore has been provided for Rs 50 crore has been allocated to the Gross tax-GDP ratio (%) 10.4 10.9 farm loans with interest discounts. Ministry of textiles in order to provide Receipt/expenditure The growth in the agricultural sector supplementary funding of Rs 10 crore growth (%) 14.3 14.6 is of prime importance considering the for each textile park. Net govt. borrowing fact that to achieve 9% growth; the (Rs bn) 4,674 4,840 farming sector needs to grow by 4%. Healthcare Fiscal deficit-GDP Therefore, it may be considered as a India is steadily gaining importance as ratio (%) 5.2 4.8 move in the right direction. a medical tourism hub and is attracting patients from all over the world for RE-Revised estimates, BE-Budget Encouraged by the robust production inexpensive and effective treatments. estimates Source: Government of India in cereal crops in the eastern states, Also, with higher disposable incomes the Budget proposes a Second and the higher occurrence of lifestyle crore for the 6 AIIMS-like institutions Green Revolution in these states to diseases the healthcare market in India that have already commenced their encourage cash crops as alternatives is witnessing tremendous potential. academic session and are expected to traditional crops like rice, wheat etc . This year, the Budget allocated Rs to initiate operations of the attached Moreover, two National level institutes 66,165 crore to the Indian healthcare hospitals by 2013-14. will be established at Chattishgarh space. The Ministry of Health and and Jharkhand which will serve as Family Welfare has been allocated Education centers for excellence in agricultural Rs 37,330 crore in the proposed A greater expenditure on education will bio-technology. Budget; out of which the new National have a positive impact on companies Health Mission that combines the providing education and IT related Manufacturing and rural mission and proposed urban services such as Educomp, NIIT, Construction mission will be allocated Rs 21,239 Aptech etc. For an economy to be truly developed, crore. Medical education, training and one of the prerequisites is a robust research have been considered for a The Budget proposes a 7% increase in manufacturing sector. However, a proposed provision of Rs 4,727 crore. the allocation of Rs 27,258 crore for sluggish manufacturing sector has The National Programme for Health education under the Right to Education been weighing on the country’s Care of Elderly is set to be executed in Act and the Sarva Shikshya Abhiyaan growth, as reflected by recent IIP data. 100 selected districts of 21 states. The (RTE-SSA). It also provides Rs 3,924 To provide a boost to the sector, the government has also shown interest crore for Rashtriya Madhyamik Union Budget 2013-14 has proposed a to mainstream Ayurveda, Unani, Shikshya Abhiyaan (RMSA). A sum of number of development measures for Siddha and Homoeopathy through Rs 1,000 crore has been allocated for the manufacturing industry. National Health Mission for which Rs Nation Skill Development Corporation 1,069 crore is being allotted to the (NSDC) for attracting youth to job Semiconductor wafer fab plays an Department of AYUSH. The Budget based vocational trainings. important role in the eco-system of also declared allocation of Rs 1,650 electronics manufacturing. In order to promote the manufacturing of electronic goods, incentives will be Non-Plan Expenditure Estimates provided to semiconductor wafer fab manufacturing facilities which Non-Plan Expenditure include zero customs duty for plant Rs Crores 2012-13 RE 2013-14 BE* Growth % and machinery. A reduction in duty on Interest Payments and Debt Servicing 319759 360000 13% specified machinery for manufacture Defense and service 193407 206000 7% of leather and leather goods, including footwear, from 7.5% to 5% has been Fertilizer Subsidy 100974 85000 -16% announced in the Budget. Food Subsidy 100000 125000 25% Petroleum Subsidy 72260 40000 -45% Under the Budget for FY’14, Total Non Plan Expenditure 1063580 1111000 4% the concession period has been *Estimated extended for the manufacturers of environment friendly vehicles. Sources: MOF Also, proposed measures to boost
  • 4. Budget Analysis 2013 Key Economic Indicators Real Estate The Union Budget has given the India Economic Data Latest Month Previous Month on Real Estate sector and the home Month Month change % buyers something to look forward to. Allocation of the rural housing fund IIP growth % y-o-y -0.10% Nov-12 8.20% -2.22% has been raised to Rs 6,000 crore Manufacturing % y-o-y 0.30% Nov-12 9.60% -2.14% along with an Urban housing fund of WPI y-o-y* 7.18% Dec-12 7.24% -0.30% Rs 2,000 crore. First time home buyers Exports USD billion 0.25 Dec-12 0.22 11.57% will get an increased interest deduction of Rs 1 lac for loans up to Rs 25 lacs. Imports USD billion 0.43 Dec-12 0.42 2.19% The Budget has introduced TDS at 1% Trade Balance USD billion -0.18 Dec-12 -0.19 -8.66% on the value of immovable property Bank deposit growth % y-o-y 11.10% Dec-12 12.80% 0.53% exceeding Rs 50 lacs. These measures Bank credit growth % y-o-y 15.10% Dec-12 17.00% 1.37% are expected to boost demand for the *Expected affordable housing segment. Source: CSO, RBI, Government Automobiles While the proposed Budget has had a neutral impact on the Auto sector, Energy and Utilities to significantly reduce the import manufacturers of sports utility vehicles Keeping a focus on encouraging of electronics. Furthermore, the (SUVs) and high end automobiles are alternative energy generation government has focused on the not happy. A negative has been the methods, the Union Budget has promotion of the manufacturing of set increased excise duty levied on sports proposed incentives for green energy top boxes in the nation itself. In this utility vehicles (SUVs) to 30% from the and quite a few tax incentives for the financial year’s Budget, import duty existing 27%, on the grounds of higher energy sector. The ‘generation based levied on set top boxes have been occupancy of parking and road space. incentive’ for the wind energy sector has increased from 5% to 10%. Import duty on superbikes and high been reintroduced with a reservation end cars has also been hiked, and now of Rs 800 crore. Municipalities are Some of the other proposals from stands at 100% from 75% previously encouraged to participate in the this year’s Budget include banking for fully built cars and 75% from 60% Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) norms compliance, ATM expansion, earlier for motorcycles above 800cc. model and generate power from urban transforming post offices and the waste. The Government has also textile sector and rolling out Aadhaar Meanwhile, the Jawaharlal Nehru removed customs duty on electrical enabled payments for several National Urban Renewal Mission plant and machinery and plans to shift government schemes. (JnNURM) has been provided Rs to the revenue sharing model from 14,873 crore. Of this amount, a the profit sharing model in all oil and Media and Entertainment significant portion will be used for the gas projects. The proposed Budget brings cheer to purchase of 10,000 buses especially the FM broadcasting sector by adding for the hilly regions. Telecom, IT and Electronics more cities under the government’s This year, there were some significant initiative for expansion of the FM Social Sector Budget announcements in this space. circle. The expansion of FM stations In the Social Sector, the Government However, the telecom industry in 294 cities in the country has been has proposed some bold steps to was largely disappointed due to the announced. As a reference to Phase III manage the fiscal deficit. The Budget absence of any announcement related expansion of FM Radio for which the aims at reduction of subsidies in the to tax relief. On the contrary, there Information and Broadcasting ministry area of petroleum, food and fertilizers. will be 6% duty on all mobile phones is already working, the Finance As against the subsidy of 2.6% in the priced above Rs 2,000 which adding to Minister has announced that 839 new last fiscal, the proposed subsidy for the burden of the industry as well as FM radio channels will be auctioned. this fiscal stands at 2%. Nonetheless, the consumers. considering the political scenario in Last year witnessed full exemption the country, reduction of subsidy as The Indian Finance Ministry has of service tax on copyright and proposed in the Budget may prove to proposed some positive initiatives, cinematography, in line with the be a major challenge. especially in the hardware industry demands. This year, the manufacturing segment. As proposed FM gave in further to the demands In the area of National Rural in the Union Budget, the government by exempting sector Service Tax on Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) will initiate the promotion of chip copyright on cinematography for the allocation remains unchanged. manufacturing in India in order movies exhibited at theaters.
  • 5. Budget Analysis 2013 During FY’14, the ministry will focus as a positive approach in this direction, As against the ruling price in the world on controlling food inflation and the Budget has proposed some market of around $14 per unit, the augmenting the supply side to meet major reform measures to encourage current price for Indian producers is the growing demand for food items. investment in the country in the form pegged at less than $5; this is drying An amount of Rs 10,000 crore has of Domestic Investment (DI) and up investment in this crucial area both been allocated as incremental cost for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Also, by domestic and foreign investors. The National Food Security Bill. In order the advent of DTC and GST will have a current Budget proposes to review the to attract investment and enhance very positive impact on the sentiment gas pricing and oil exploration policy. productivity of livestock base, the of investors. Once that is done, it is expected to ‘National Livestock Mission’ will be attract more investment in areas like launched for which an amount of In the past, the General Anti shale gas. Rs 307 crore has been allocated. In Avoidance Rule (GAAR) has conveyed addition, a financial support of Rs 5000 a wrong message to the international All in all, the Union Budget for FY’14 crore will be provided to NABARD for investor community. In this Budget, failed to receive a thumbs up from construction of warehouses, godowns, it has been proposed that GAAR will the industry, especially since the expectations were much higher from silos and cold storage units for storage be postponed for implementation Chidambaram after his big bang of agricultural produce, both in public to 2016. The Government has also reform announcements over the past and private sectors. Moreover, a proposed to differentiate between several months. Experts opine that it company will receive an investment Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) kept the macro promises such as the allowance of 15%, if it invests Rs 100 and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). one on fiscal deficit while some believe crore or more in plant and machinery Holding stake of 10% or lower by a its outcome will be evident laterin the during this period. Foreign Investor will be considered as year. No matter which side we take, a FII and above 10% will be considered Budget is only as good as the last one Potential for Growth as FDI. till it delivers what it sets out to do. Although India is the 3rd economy in Asia, the major challenge that faces In recent times, gas price fixation the country today is to attain optimum has become a major deterrent for GDP growth of 6.5% in 2014. However, investment in the Oil and Gas sector.