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Turkey Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010

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BMI's outlook for pharmaceutical companies operating in the Emerging Europe region has improved further over the past quarter, as shown by our updated Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) matrix. However, while Turkey's compound quarterly score has improved somewhat, its regional ranking has actually worsened to sixth (from fourth), overtaken by Russia and Hungary. Globally, Turkey remains 26th of the 83 pharmaceutical markets surveyed by BMI. While a number of major multinationals have indicated that Turkey is of major interest to them as a key emerging market, the recent pricing and reimbursement reforms will continue to weigh on the growth of market values, as will shortcomings in its intellectual property (IP) environment. In fact, during the most recent European Union (EU)-Turkey Association Council's meeting, the EU backed Turkey's constitutional amendments, a small step on the long road to accession. However, despite some positive moves, the EU stated concerns over many aspects of Turkey's business environment, including the pharmaceutical industry. The EU called for Turkey to establish legal certainty on regulatory data exclusivity, a theme also raised by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)'s Special 301 report for 2010, which placed Turkey on the Priority Watch List. The EU has also requested that Turkey suspend new requirements on Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP), as they impose a 'de-facto ban' on imports of certain products, instead suggesting that Turkey develop its capacity in-line with international harmonisation initiatives for GMP. Turkey's pharmaceutical market was valued at TRY16.8bn (US$10.83bn) in 2009, making it the 14th largest market globally. Despite a blip in growth expected in 2010, through to 2014, we forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of % in local currency (and of % in US dollar terms), with the market reaching TRY24.25bn (US$20.38bn) at consumer prices. While the development of the generics segment will be stimulated by cost-containment pressures, international standards and IP protection requirements should also work in favour of patented drugs, which are expected to largely retain their share of the total market by value at the same level as in 2009. In the meantime, the economic rebound expected for Turkey should also stimulate the development of the pharmaceutical market ' in both volume and value terms ' once the effects of the 2009 pricing and reimbursement changes are fully digested. We stand by our view that Turkey is among the best positioned emerging markets over the long run. Turkey's domestically-oriented economic structure, diversified industrial sectors, healthy local capital market, pro-reform government and greater leverage potential all suggest that the economy is set to outperform its core emerging European peers, which are some of the other factors providing a solid base for investment in the country's pharmaceutical market.

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Turkey Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010

  1. 1. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics >> Get this Report Now by email!Turkey Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010Published on August 2010 Report SummaryBMIs outlook for pharmaceutical companies operating in the Emerging Europe region has improved further over the past quarter, asshown by our updated Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) matrix. However, while Turkeyscompound quarterly score has improved somewhat, its regional ranking has actually worsened to sixth (from fourth), overtaken byRussia and Hungary. Globally, Turkey remains 26th of the 83 pharmaceutical markets surveyed by BMI. While a number of majormultinationals have indicated that Turkey is of major interest to them as a key emerging market, the recent pricing and reimbursementreforms will continue to weigh on the growth of market values, as will shortcomings in its intellectual property (IP) environment.In fact, during the most recent European Union (EU)-Turkey Association Councils meeting, the EU backed Turkeys constitutionalamendments, a small step on the long road to accession. However, despite some positive moves, the EU stated concerns over manyaspects of Turkeys business environment, including the pharmaceutical industry. The EU called for Turkey to establish legal certaintyon regulatory data exclusivity, a theme also raised by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)sSpecial 301 report for 2010, which placed Turkey on the Priority Watch List. The EU has also requested that Turkey suspend newrequirements on Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP), as they impose a de-facto ban on imports of certain products, insteadsuggesting that Turkey develop its capacity in-line with international harmonisation initiatives for GMP.Turkeys pharmaceutical market was valued at TRY16.8bn (US$10.83bn) in 2009, making it the 14th largest market globally. Despitea blip in growth expected in 2010, through to 2014, we forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of % in local currency (and of% in US dollar terms), with the market reaching TRY24.25bn (US$20.38bn) at consumer prices. While the development of thegenerics segment will be stimulated by cost-containment pressures, international standards and IP protection requirements shouldalso work in favour of patented drugs, which are expected to largely retain their share of the total market by value at the same level asin 2009.In the meantime, the economic rebound expected for Turkey should also stimulate the development of the pharmaceutical market inboth volume and value terms once the effects of the 2009 pricing and reimbursement changes are fully digested. We stand by ourview that Turkey is among the best positioned emerging markets over the long run. Turkeys domestically-oriented economicstructure, diversified industrial sectors, healthy local capital market, pro-reform government and greater leverage potential all suggestthat the economy is set to outperform its core emerging European peers, which are some of the other factors providing a solid basefor investment in the countrys pharmaceutical market. Table of ContentExecutive Summary .5SWOT Analysis ......... 6Turkey Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT ............ 6Turkey Political SWOT ..... 7Turkey Economic SWOT ... 8Turkey Business Environment SWOT .............. 8Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 9Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q410 ...... 9Rewards ........... 10Risks . 11Turkey Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010 Page 1/5
  2. 2. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsTurkey - Market Summary ..... 12Regulatory Regime . 13Intellectual Property Regime ......... 14Intellectual Property Shortcomings .............. 15Counterfeit Drugs ........... 16Recent Developments Regarding Counterfeit Drugs .... 18Pricing Regime 19Table: Turkish Pharmacy & Wholesale Mark-Ups ...... 21Reimbursement Regime ... 21Industry Developments ......... 24Epidemiology ... 24Table: Disease Burden In Emerging Europe 25Non-Communicable Diseases ........ 25Communicable Diseases . 26Healthcare Sector ........... 27Healthcare Expenditure .. 27Healthcare Sector Reforms ............ 28Health Insurance ............ 29Private Healthcare Sector .............. 30Medical Tourism ............. 31International Cooperation ............. 31Research & Development Sector ... 32Table: Turkeys 2008 R&D Law .... 33Clinical Trials Industry ... 34Medical Devices Industry .............. 34Industry Forecast Scenario ... 36Overall Market Forecast . 36Key Growth Factors Industry ...... 38Key Growth Factors Macroeconomic ........ 40Table: Turkey Economic Activity 43Prescription Drug Market Forecast .............. 44Patented Drug Market Forecast .... 46Generic Drug Market Forecast ...... 47OTC Medicine Market Forecast .... 48Medical Device Market Forecast ... 50Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast .... 51Other Healthcare Data ... 53Key Risks to Forecasts .... 53Competitive Landscape ........ 54Pharmaceutical Sector .... 54Table: Top 10 Pharmaceutical Companies In Turkey By Market Share, MAT July 2008 ......... 56Domestic Industry ........... 57Foreign Industry ............. 57Recent Pharmaceutical Sector Developments .............. 58Pharmaceutical Retail And Distribution ....... 60Company Profiles ... 62Indigenous Companies .... 62Abdi brahim .... 62Eczacibai Pharmaceuticals .......... 64Sanovel Pharmaceuticals 67Turkey Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010 Page 2/5
  3. 3. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsEastPharma (formerly Deva) ......... 69Fako (Actavis) .. 72Biomeks ........... 74Multinational Companies 75Novartis ........... 75Sanofi-Aventis .. 77GlaxoSmithKline ............. 79Pfizer 80Roche 82AstraZeneca ..... 84Bayer 85Merck & Co ..... 87Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data . 88Section 1: Population ...... 88Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 88Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 89Section 2: Education And Healthcare ........... 89Table: Education, 2002-2005 ........ 89Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 89Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .......... 90Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ... 90Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........ 90BMI Methodology ... 91How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ....... 91Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 92Ratings Overview ............ 92Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators .......... 93Weighting ......... 94Table: Weighting Of Components .. 94Sources ............ 94Forecast Tables ...... 95Turkey Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010 Page 3/5
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