Telecoms retail revenue will reach USD1.64 trillion worldwide in 2018 ' 22% will be from handset data services, which will grow at over 10% per year. This report provides an update to our global forecasts, and highlights all the key trends in each region.About this reportThis report provides: -an update of our 5-year forecast of more than 60 telecoms market KPIs, worldwide and for 8 regions, previously published in March 20131 -an extension of the forecast horizon to 2018 -additional KPIs for IPTV: subscribers and revenue (split out from fixed broadband revenue) -an explanation of the significant changes to our previous forecasts. -Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly because of: -market developments ' some drivers were stronger or weaker than previously expected, based on the latest reported operator and regulator data -changes to the macroeconomic outlook, competitive and regulatory environment -changes to historical data because of new information, including from operators' and regulators' reports.Emerging markets present the best growth opportunities, particularly in Asia'Pacific, while revenue in Europe and North America will decline -Telecoms retail revenue will significantly increase in the emerging markets of Asia, Africa and South America during the forecast period. Increased mobile penetration is a key driver, as coverage expands and affordability increases. -Mobile penetration in EMAP will rise from 69% of the population in 2012 to more than 100% in 2018, bringing an additional 1.4 billion subscribers into the market, 63% of them from China and India. -Fixed broadband will be a growth area in all regions, but particularly in emerging markets where broadband penetration of the PSTN is comparatively low. -SSA, MENA and LATAM in particular will have strong growth in fixed broadband revenue, at CAGRs of 9.7%, 8.7% and 7.3% respectively. -Although telecoms retail revenue will slightly grow in DVAP, revenue will decline in the other developed markets during the forecast period, particularly in Europe. -Price-based competition and limited potential for an increase in subscriber numbers will reduce revenue in WE by almost USD28 billion between 2012 and 2018. -This decrease is greater than the growth in MENA (USD22 billion), and almost as large as the increase in LATAM (USD29 billion).

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The Global telecoms market: interim forecast update 2013'2018
Published on November 2013
Report Summary
Telecoms retail revenue will reach USD1.64 trillion worldwide in 2018 ' 22% will be from handset data services, which will grow at
over 10% per year. This report provides an update to our global forecasts, and highlights all the key trends in each region.
About this report
This report provides:
-an update of our 5-year forecast of more than 60 telecoms market KPIs, worldwide and for 8 regions, previously published in March
20131
-an extension of the forecast horizon to 2018
-additional KPIs for IPTV: subscribers and revenue (split out from fixed broadband revenue)
-an explanation of the significant changes to our previous forecasts.
-Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly because of:
-market developments ' some drivers were stronger or weaker than previously expected, based on the latest reported operator and
regulator data
-changes to the macroeconomic outlook, competitive and regulatory environment
-changes to historical data because of new information, including from operators' and regulators' reports.
Emerging markets present the best growth opportunities, particularly in Asia'Pacific, while revenue in Europe and North
America will decline
-Telecoms retail revenue will significantly increase in the emerging markets of Asia, Africa and South America during the forecast
period. Increased mobile penetration is a key driver, as coverage expands and affordability increases.
-Mobile penetration in EMAP will rise from 69% of the population in 2012 to more than 100% in 2018, bringing an additional 1.4 billion
subscribers into the market, 63% of them from China and India.
-Fixed broadband will be a growth area in all regions, but particularly in emerging markets where broadband penetration of the PSTN
is comparatively low.
-SSA, MENA and LATAM in particular will have strong growth in fixed broadband revenue, at CAGRs of 9.7%, 8.7% and 7.3%
respectively.
-Although telecoms retail revenue will slightly grow in DVAP, revenue will decline in the other developed markets during the forecast
period, particularly in Europe.
-Price-based competition and limited potential for an increase in subscriber numbers will reduce revenue in WE by almost USD28
billion between 2012 and 2018.
-This decrease is greater than the growth in MENA (USD22 billion), and almost as large as the increase in LATAM (USD29 billion).
Table of Content
Contents
7.Executive summary
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8.Telecoms retail revenue worldwide will reach USD1.64 trillion in 2018, up from USD1.50 trillion in 2012, driven by increased access
to broadband
9.Emerging markets present the best growth opportunities, particularly in Asia'Pacific, while revenue in Europe and North America will
decline
10.Key trends since our previous forecast: Mobile revenue will shift more quickly to non-messaging data, but fixed voice will hold up
better
11.Worldwide forecasts
12.Telecoms revenue forecast by service: Retail revenue worldwide will reach USD1642 billion in 2018, with mobile handset data
leading the growth
13.Forecast revision by service: The big picture remains much the same, but the transition away from traditional services will be faster
than expected
14.Revenue forecast by region: Growth will be highest in EMAP, LATAM, MENA and SSA, but Europe will continue to decline
15.Forecast revision by region: We have lowered our expectations for Europe and MENA, but most other regions are set for stronger
growth
16.New KPI: IPTV connections worldwide will reach 150 million by 2018, generating revenue of USD31.3 billion
17.Individual region forecasts
18.NA telecoms market: Growth in handset data and broadband services will largely compensate for declining voice revenue
19.NA mobile market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
20.NA fixed market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
21.WE telecoms market: Operators face a period of steady decline during the next 5 years
22.WE mobile market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
23.WE fixed market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
24.CEE telecoms market: Retail revenue will decline from 2014 as competition intensifies and new operators may enter the market
25.CEE mobile market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
26.CEE fixed market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
27.DVAP telecoms market: DVAP is the only developed region to show (limited) retail revenue growth during the forecast period
28.DVAP mobile market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
29.DVAP fixed market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
30.EMAP telecoms market: Mobile penetration growth and handset data services will drive retail revenue during the next few years
31.EMAP mobile market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
32.EMAP fixed market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
33.LATAM telecoms market: Intense competition will provide significant dynamism ' retail revenue will grow at a 3.4% CAGR
34.LATAM mobile market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
35.LATAM fixed market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
36.MENA telecoms market: Mobile voice and data services offer good opportunities for revenue growth during the forecast period
37.MENA mobile market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
38.MENA fixed market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
39.SSA telecoms market: All services except fixed voice will grow as mobile coverage improves and mobile tariffs decline
40.SSA mobile market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
41.SSA fixed market: Significant changes since our previous forecast
42.About the authors and Analysys Mason
43.About the authors
44.About Analysys Mason
45.Research from Analysys Mason
46.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
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Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, worldwide, 2009'2018
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by region, 2012'2018
Figure 4: Summary of major changes to the March 2013 forecast
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, worldwide, 2009'2018
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2009'2018
Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, worldwide, 2009'2018
Figure 8: Growth rates of telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, new and previous forecasts, 2012'2017
Figure 9: Telecoms retail revenue by region, worldwide, 2009'2018
Figure 10: Growth rates of telecoms retail revenue by region, worldwide, 2012'2018
Figure 11: Growth rates of telecoms retail revenue by region, new and previous forecasts, 2012'2017
Figure 12: IPTV revenue by region, and connections, worldwide, 2009'2018
Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, North America, 2009'2018
Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, North America, 2009'2018
Figure 15: Connections by type, and growth rates, North America, 2009'2018
Figure 16: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the mobile market in North America
Figure 17: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the fixed market in North America
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, Western Europe, 2009'2018
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2009'2018
Figure 20: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2009'2018
Figure 21: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the mobile market in Western Europe
Figure 22: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the fixed market in Western Europe
Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009'2018
Figure 24: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009'2018
Figure 25: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009'2018
Figure 26: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the mobile market in Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 27: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the fixed market in Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, developed Asia'Pacific, 2009'2018
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, developed Asia'Pacific, 2009'2018
Figure 30: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia'Pacific, 2009'2018
Figure 31: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the mobile market in developed Asia'Pacific
Figure 32: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the fixed market in developed Asia'Pacific
Figure 33: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, emerging Asia'Pacific, 2009'2018
Figure 34: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, emerging Asia'Pacific, 2009'2018
Figure 35: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia'Pacific, 2009'2018
Figure 36: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the mobile market in emerging Asia'Pacific
Figure 37: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the fixed market in emerging Asia'Pacific
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, Latin America, 2009'2018
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2009'2018
Figure 40: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2009'2018
Figure 41: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the mobile market in Latin America
Figure 42: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the fixed market in Latin America
Figure 43: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2009'2018
Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2009'2018
Figure 45: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2009'2018
Figure 46: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the mobile market in the Middle East and North Africa
Figure 47: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the fixed market in the Middle East and North Africa
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009'2018
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Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009'2018
Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009'2018
Figure 51: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the mobile market in Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 52: Summary of changes to our previous forecast (March 2013) for the fixed market in Sub-Saharan Africa
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