Be the first to like this
The new Philippines Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.85% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a modest generation surplus that provides a theoretical export capability. BMI's Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,698 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,234TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 20.0% in 2010-2014. In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,133TWh, accounting for 79.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,216TWh, implying a 17.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydroelectricity and nuclear generation. The Philippines' thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 54.2TWh, or 0.88% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for an unchanged 0.93% of thermal generation in the region. Oil is the dominant fuel in the Philippines, accounting for an estimated 48.8% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2010, followed by coal at 27.6%, gas at 15.6% and hydroelectric energy at 15.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,236mn toe by 2014, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. The Philippines 2010 market share of an estimated 0.59% is set to rise to 0.63% by 2014. The country's estimated 10.0TWh of hydro demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 11.5TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market falling from an estimated 1.02% to 0.94% over the period. The Philippines now shares ninth place with Malaysia in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, in spite of a relatively high level of renewables usage and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but the country should be able to keep Hong Kong and Singapore at bay and potentially overtake Malaysia during the next few quarters. BMI is now forecasting Philippines' real GDP growth averaging 4.88% a year between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 assumption being growth of 6.20%. Population is expected to expand from 93.6mn to 100.9mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 36% and 9% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 55.2TWh in 2010 to 65.0TWh by the end of the forecast period, leaving theoretical surplus generation rising from an estimated 9.0TWh in 2010 to 13.8TWh in 2014, assuming 5.1% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2010-2014. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in the Philippines' electricity generation of 59.9%, which is around the middle of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 30.3% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 22.7% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to decrease from 30.2% in 2010-2014 to 27.4%, representing 65.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 25% in hydropower use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 66% between 2010 and 2019. More details of our long-term power forecasts are at the end of this report.