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How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices: A practical methodology to calculate future generic product prices

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How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices - A practical method to estimate future generic product prices is a unique guide that will help you be able to forecast future generic prices before and after launch. Specifically designed to be instantly usable, this publication, presents a tried and tested methodology to predict how the price of a generic medicine will fall after patent expiry and launch. The practical guide, which is produced by URCH Publishing in association with WaveData, a medical price analysis company, will allow users to build spreadsheets and forecast products prices as required. The model presented is based on solid methodology drawing from over 6 year's work (over 60,000 hours) cataloguing 6 million pharmaceutical prices. A 120 real-life examples of generic product were studied to find patterns of price decay. The model takes into account both regional drug reimbursement policies and the brand value of the product. 20 tables provide detailed percentage points according to the number of generic licence holders entering the marketplace post patent-expiry. The model works in the absence of government price capping, where the price decay happens as a result of competition between suppliers (free pricing) rather than statuary price reductions, and the reimbursement price is high enough to allow free pricing. 5 Reasons to Invest in this Report Stop using "rule of thumb" to calculate the decline in price Adopt the suggested methodology immediately Easily understandable, designed for the non-statistician Follow clear instructions to build your own spreadsheet models Adjust the number of expected competitors with first 3 years of launch This unique guide is a must have for all: Pricing and reimbursement executives Marketing Managers in Generic Drug Companies Strategy directors in pharmaceutical companies Consultancies with an interest in pharmaceutical markets

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How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices: A practical methodology to calculate future generic product prices

  1. 1. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics >> Get this Report Now by email!How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices: A practicalmethodology to calculate future generic product pricesPublished on March 2009 Report SummaryHow to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices - A practical method to estimate future generic product prices is a uniqueguide that will help you be able to forecast future generic prices before and after launch.Specifically designed to be instantly usable, this publication, presents a tried and tested methodology to predict how the price of ageneric medicine will fall after patent expiry and launch.The practical guide, which is produced by URCH Publishing in association with WaveData, a medical price analysis company, willallow users to build spreadsheets and forecast products prices as required.The model presented is based on solid methodology drawing from over 6 years work (over 60,000 hours) cataloguing 6 millionpharmaceutical prices. A 120 real-life examples of generic product were studied to find patterns of price decay.The model takes into account both regional drug reimbursement policies and the brand value of the product.20 tables provide detailed percentage points according to the number of generic licence holders entering the marketplace postpatent-expiry.The model works in the absence of government price capping, where the price decay happens as a result of competition betweensuppliers (free pricing) rather than statuary price reductions, and the reimbursement price is high enough to allow free pricing.5 Reasons to Invest in this ReportStop using "rule of thumb" to calculate the decline in priceAdopt the suggested methodology immediatelyHow to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices: A practical methodology to calculate future generic product prices Page 1/6
  2. 2. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsEasily understandable, designed for the non-statisticianFollow clear instructions to build your own spreadsheet modelsAdjust the number of expected competitors with first 3 years of launchThis unique guide is a must have for all: Pricing and reimbursement executives Marketing Managers in Generic Drug CompaniesStrategy directors in pharmaceutical companies Consultancies with an interest in pharmaceutical markets Table of Content1. Summary2. Introduction3. Mechanism4. Background to the study - Modelling - Reimbursement -Brand valueHow to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices: A practical methodology to calculate future generic product prices Page 2/6
  3. 3. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics -Regional factors6. A Step By Step Guide to Forecasting the Decline in a Generic Drug Price 10 7.ConclusionAppendix 1. Calculation Tables According to Number of Generic Licence Holders 20Appendix 2. Sterling (£) exchange rates 1 June 2006 40 ReferencesList of Figures FigureFigure 1. Generic Price DecayFigure 2. Variations in Price Decay of Generics (Time vs. Percentage Fall)Figure 3. D Factor used in calculationsFigure 4. Reduction in forecast value due to various D factorsFigure 5. Generic Prescribing in the UK, 1996-2006Figure 6. D Factor used in calculationsFigure 7. Enter reimbursement price in SpreadsheetFigure 8. Reimbursement price for 36 monthsFigure 9. Estimate number of licence holdersFigure 10. Enter number of generic competitors over 36 monthsFigure 11. Find appropriate calculation tableFigure 12. Number of generic licence holders may varyFigure 13. Find 36 monthly valuesFigure 14. Calculate the % of original reimbursement priceFigure 15. Calculate the % of original price each monthHow to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices: A practical methodology to calculate future generic product prices Page 3/6
  4. 4. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsFigure 16. Multiply forecast by % of reimbursement priceFigure 17. Final Generic ForecastHow to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices: A practical methodology to calculate future generic product prices Page 4/6
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