Food & Grocery Retailing in the UK | Verdict Market Report, Verdict Research Ltd

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Food & Grocery Retailing in the UK | Verdict Market Report, Verdict
Research Ltd
Published on November 2012

Report Summary

As inflation drives growth in the food & grocery sector volumes remain constrained. Tesco's stumble in 2012 has demonstrated the
strength of the competitive environment not just among the Big Four, but resulting from the threat of discounters and value retailers.
Price comparison abounds but shoppers are seeking more from value than just low prices.

- Provides data & insight on market size, sales & growth rates for food & grocery sector, overall & at category level, helping to plan
range development
- Provides sales breakdown across channels highlighting to you the areas which offer the most growth potential
- Market issues are examined; the economy, demographic trends, polarisation and multichannel, improving your awareness of
challenges and opportunities
- Food & grocery expenditure forecast to 2017 and analysis of volume growth and inflation, aiding future planning and strategising
Inflation set to continue high with our forecast at 2.9% for 2013. As a result volumes will remain restricted as shoppers manage their
spending more tightly to stick to budgets. Grocers are having to fight harder than ever for share of spend as basket sizes drop and
shoppers make more considered purchases.

Tesco reported its first drop in profits for more than 20 years in 2012 prompting questions about the permanence of Tesco's
dominance in its home market. In spite of a management refocus on the UK with investment in existing stores and revamping product
offer, competitors are set to continue to steal share in 2013.

In 2011 click & collect focused on non-food but in 2012 it is all about food. Tesco is leading the charge with expansion of its drive-thru
collection points but Asda and Waitrose are also rolling out similar services. Combining this with the trend towards top-up shopping by
introducing collection points in c-stores will be crucial to winning share.

- What will contribute to food inflation, and how will this ongoing inflation impact volume growth in the next five years'
- What is the impact of Tesco's slip in 2012 and who has gained share as a result'
- Are price comparison initiatives resonating well with shoppers and who is winning in the hard fought battle for loyalty'
- Which retailers will gain the most market share in 2013, and which are expected to be the greatest share losers and why'

Table of Content

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Key findings
Inflation continues to drive growth in food & grocery sector;
Tesco's stumble shows competitors ready to pounce
Austerity promotes value players from periphery to mainstream;

Food & Grocery Retailing in the UK | Verdict Market Report, Verdict Research Ltd (From Slideshare) Page 1/8


Online becomes multichannel as click & collect on food develops;
Price matching abounds but shoppers seek more from value.
Main conclusions
Inflation continues to drive growth in food & grocery sector
Tesco's stumble shows competitors ready to pounce
Austerity promotes value players from periphery to mainstream
Online becomes multichannel as click & collect on food develops
Price matching abound but shoppers seek more from value
OUTLOOK
What does Tesco's stumble mean for the market'
As Tesco falters competitors are poised to steal share on all sides
No easy wins left in expansion for Tesco
Regional breakdown shows how Tesco's dominance in visitor share in 2007 had been eroded by 2012
Tesco's value resonance
Trading up
Must lead on multichannel
What threat do discounters and value end pose to the Big Four'
Austerity increases importance of value players
To gain share Big Four must defend
To grow, value players must work hard
Grocery shoppers look for an alternative
Newcomers
Frozen food retailers
Discounters
Do loyalty schemes actually generate loyalty'
Those who have loyalty cards don't use them for loyalty
Those that don't have loyalty cards don't need them for loyalty
Loyalty changes shape online
Does price matching matter'
Price sensitivity increases as ethical concerns take a back seat
Austerity dictates price sensitivity
Retailers seek to negate need to shop around
Trust vs tempting shoppers back
Omitting convenience
Omitting own label
Morrisons missing a trick'
Long term risks of price comparison
Is the message resonating'
Matching in 2013 and beyond
What are the CSR issues that cannot be ignored'
Spotlight on suppliers
Grocery Code Adjudicator
Incoming legislation
Go green for good
Why invest in click & collect for food'
Online grocery shoppers concerned with costs and timing
How click & collect at a convenience store meets these needs
What are grocers doing about it'



Lessons from Europe
MARKET ANALYSIS
Inflation drives growth
Independents suffer as multiples strengthen
Boom in top-up shopping benefits small stores
Specialists space to contract as only the strongest survive '
' though survivors will reap benefits
Despite top-up trend consolidation will lead to drop in store numbers
Food & grocery expenditure
Volume growth to be negligible as inflation drives growth
Cost inflation to reflect in food price hikes
COMPANY DATA ANALYSIS
Market shares
Leaner, meaner competitors will further erode Tesco leadership in 2013
Asda maintains second position '
' but Sainsbury's makes up for lost time
Co-op holds on to some acquisition growth while discounters make hay in downturn
Key operating statistics
Growing popularity of discounters provides impressive sales growth
Market leader sees profits fall, while most able to produce growth
Space
Space race slows as Big Four eschew big box expansion '
' but all except The Co-op grow portfolio in battle for market share
Morrisons left behind by rivals aggressive expansion '
' but produces healthiest density growth of Big Four
Space allocation
Fresh food focus as shoppers look for quality and value
Advertising data
Advertising spend growth halts as retailers rein in spending
E-RETAIL
Customer expectations rise as online food & grocery market matures
Growth stems from improved delivery and ranges
Shopper numbers rise as recruitment continues
Young affluent males provide fillip to growth
Major players
Outlook

APPENDIX

Definitions
Abbreviations
Methodology
Ask the analyst
Disclaimer



TABLES

Table: Grocer price comparison analysis 2012
Table: Grocers & food specialists definition 2012
Table: Sales via grocers & food specialists including forecasts 2002'17e
Table: Channels of distribution forecast 2012'17
Table: Grocery market size incl forecasts by retailer type 2002'17
Table: Grocery market size incl forecasts by retailer type (continued) 2002'17
Table: Grocery space incl forecasts by retailer type 2002'17
Table: Grocery space incl forecasts by retailer type (continued) 2002'17
Table: Grocery store numbers by retailer type incl forecasts 2002'17
Table: Grocery store numbers by retailer type incl forecasts (continued) 2002'17
Table: UK consumer expenditure on food & grocery incl forecasts 2002'17e
Table: UK consumer expenditure on food incl forecasts 2002 ' 17e
Table: UK consumer expenditure on non-durable household goods incl forecasts 2002'17e
Table: UK consumer expenditure on soft drinks incl forecasts 2002'17e
Table: UK consumer expenditure on alcoholic drinks incl forecasts 2002'17e
Table: UK consumer expenditure on tobacco products incl forecasts 2002'17e
Table: Shares of the total market held by food & grocery retailers 2008'13e
Table: Leading grocery retailers key operating statistics for year ending in 2012
Table: Leading grocery retailers store portfolios for years ending in 2012
Table: Grocery space allocation of Big Four 2012
Table: Grocery space allocation of Big Four (cont'd) 2012
Table: Space allocation of higher price grocers 2012
Table: Space allocation of higher price grocers (cont'd) 2012
Table: Grocery space allocation of discounters and frozen specialists 2012
Table: Grocery space allocation of discounters and frozen specialists (cont'd) 2012
Table: Advertising media expenditure 2006'11
Table: Retailers advertising spend across all media 2011
Table: Online food & grocery market 2006'11 and forecast to 2016
Table: Online food & grocery shopping population 2007'16
Table: Spend per year on food & grocery online 2011
Table: Frequency of shopping for food & grocery online 2011
Table: Gender breakdown of online food & grocery market 2011
Table: Online grocery delivery terms 2012

FIGURES

Figure: Food and Grocery retail outlook 2012
Figure: Big Four annualised sales growth ' Tesco vs competitors 2008 ' 12
Figure: Tesco dominance of Big Four visitor shares 2007
Figure: Tesco's competitors advance ' Big Four visitor share by region 2012
Figure: Tesco Everyday Value range 2012
Figure: Waitrose' Brand Price Match promise 2012
Figure: Larger grocers strategies for success 2012



Figure: Tesco and Asda click & collect for groceries 2012
Figure: Value players strategies for growth 2012
Figure: Percentage point change in grocery main user share 2012 on 2008
Figure: Retailer growth rates versus unemployment and GDP 2006'11
Figure: Growing visitor share among value retailers 2007 ' 12
Figure: Poundland food & grocery offer 2012
Figure: Iceland Bonus Card 2012
Figure: COOK's eat together for a tenner offer 2012
Figure: Percentage of Aldi and Lidl visitors who are main users of them & other retailers 2012
Figure: Aldi's "like brands only cheaper" campaign 2012
Figure: Lidl award winning products 2012
Figure: Percentage of food & grocery shoppers loyal to their main store, by retailer 2012
Figure: Drivers of loyalty (% of loyal main users) 2012
Figure: Top Five drivers of loyalty for Waitrose shoppers (% of loyal main users) 2012
Figure: Morrisons Christmas saver 2012
Figure: Morrisons promoting its craft skills 2012
Figure: Ocado low price promise 2012
Figure: Ocado Delivery Pass 2012
Figure: Who is impressing on price' 2012
Figure: Percentage point change in price as a driver of loyalty 2012 on 2011
Figure: Dairy crisis poster 2012
Figure: Government communication on minimum pricing March 2012
Figure: Marks & Spencer's market leading Plan A CSR strategy 2012
Figure: What appeals to online grocery shoppers' 2012
Figure: Why choose click & collect' 2012
Figure: Asda click & collect 2012
Figure: Carrefour city St Lazare store 2012
Figure: Mon Panier kiosk 2012
Figure: Carrefour city's Mon Panier app 2012
Figure: Carrefour city Mon Panier products 2012
Figure: Total grocers & food specialists retail sales 2007'17e
Figure: Channels of distribution/shares of all sales via grocers & food specialists 2007, 12&17e
Figure: Forecast change % in grocer's sales by retailer type 2017e on 2012
Figure: Forecast change % in grocery space by retailer type 2017e on 2012
Figure: Forecast change % in annual sales densities by retailer type 2017e on 2012
Figure: Forecast change % in grocery store numbers by retailer type 2017e on 2012
Figure: Sources of growth in food & grocery expenditure 2002'17e
Figure: Forecast change % in expenditure on food & grocery by category 2017 on 2012
Figure: Shares of the total market held by food & grocery retailers 2013e
Figure: Shares of total market held by food & grocery retailers 2008 and 2013e
Figure: Change in shares of total market held by grocers (% points) 2013e on 2008
Figure: Retailer shares of market in food & grocery products 2008 and 2013e
Figure: Change in shares of market in food & grocery products (% points) 2013e on 2008
Figure: Leading grocery retailers y-o-y change in operating profit % for years ending in 2012
Figure: Leading grocers change in operating margin (percentage points) 2007 on 2012
Figure: Leading grocery retailers y-o-y space growth % for years ending in 2012
Figure: Leading grocery retailers space growth % 2012 on 2007
Figure: Leading grocery retailers change in sales densities % 2012 on 2007



Figure: Average space allocation by category % 2010 and 2012
Figure: Retailers space allocation to ambient % 2012
Figure: Retailers space allocation to fresh % 2012
Figure: Retailers space allocation to frozen % 2012
Figure: Retailers space allocation to alcohol % 2012
Figure: Retailers space allocation to non-food % 2012
Figure: Spend per head on food & grocery online 2011'16
Figure: % of internet shoppers who shop for food & grocery 2009'11
Figure: Reasons why consumers chose the Internet to shop for food & grocery 2009'11
Figure: Instore versus online in food & grocery 2011
Figure: Top nine food & grocery retailers where shoppers bought online 2011 on 2010
Figure: Tesco Delivery Saver 2012
Figure: Tesco click and collect 2012
Figure: Sainsbury's Live Well For Less site 2012
Figure: Traceability ' Food heroes 2012
Figure: Personal Shopper profiling 2012
Figure: Ocado shopping wall, One New Change London 2011
Figure: Freshdirect 2011
Figure: Hubbub delivery service for independent food specialists 2012
Figure: Ocado and BBC food link-up 2012
Figure: Carrefour Mon Panier app 2012
Figure: Delhaize shopping cubes 2012
Figure: Recommendations by Asda 2012

Companies Mentioned

Arvedi Group, Banco Santander, S.A., CMS Energy Corporation, Hutchison 3G UK Limited, J Sainsbury plc, Kingfisher Plc, Kwik-Fit
(GB) Limited, Marks and Spencer Group plc, Metro International S.A., Nectar, Nestle S.A., Wm Morrison Supermarkets Plc


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