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Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q1 2010

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BMI's Central Asia Telecommunications Report for Q110 covers Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, with five-year forecasts for the mobile and fixed-line sectors, as well as market data analysis sections for the mobile, fixed-line and internet markets. This quarter our forecasts have all been extended through to the end of 2014. Current trends are expected to continue with slow but steady growth in the fixed-line markets and fast growth in the mobile sectors, albeit at a slowing pace. Central Asia's mobile markets are by far the most liberalised and developed sectors in each of the countries. The Russian operators MTS, VimpelCom and MegaFon all have significant interests across the region, competing with each other and Nordic giant TeliaSonera, along with Turkey's Turkcell, through its joint venture with TeliaSonera, Fintur Holdings. The main development in the mobile market this quarter has been Sweden's Tele2 acquiring a controlling stake in Kazakhtelecom's GSM mobile unit, NeoTelecom. NeoTelecom is the smallest of Kazakhstan's three GSM mobile operators but has been slowly building up its market share. This represents Tele2's first foray into Central Asia but the operator does have experience of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS); Tele2 Russia is the fourth largest mobile operator in Russia. Tele2 has a reputation for efficient management and following a price leadership strategy and we are expecting it to have a notable impact on Kazakhstan's mobile market. Tele2 has earmarked SEK2,400-2,600mn of capital expenditure in Kazakhstan between 2010 and 2013 and aims to have more than 20% market share within four years of commercial re-launch. Tele2's main competitors will be VimpelCom's KaR-Tel and Fintur's K-Cell. In October 2009 MTS Uzbekistan announced that it would trial LTE services in Uzbekistan. The announcement came just one week after MTS' fiercest rival in the region, VimpelCom, announced an LTE trial at its Kazakh subsidiary KaR-Tel. BMI had not expected MTS and VimpelCom to choose countries in Central Asia for their LTE trials but given the underdeveloped wireline infrastructure in the region there is huge growth potential for mobile broadband services. As noted above the region's fixed-line markets are relatively underdeveloped and dominated by the countries' respective fixed-line incumbents. Competition in the markets does vary but even in the more developed markets such as Kazakhstan, competition is not particularly fierce, with most alternative operators choosing to target the growing internet sectors over fixed-line. Nevertheless, fixed-line penetration in the region is increasing, albeit at a slow and steady pace. Going forward, we are not anticipating dramatic increases in the region's fixed-line subscriber bases. Although fixed-line networks are being expanded, the mobile sectors are expanding at a much faster rate and fixed-to-mobile substitution is expected to grow in prominence.

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Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q1 2010

  1. 1. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics >> Get this Report Now by email!Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q1 2010Published on February 2010 Report SummaryBMIs Central Asia Telecommunications Report for Q110 covers Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan,with five-year forecasts for the mobile and fixed-line sectors, as well as market data analysis sections for the mobile, fixed-line andinternet markets. This quarter our forecasts have all been extended through to the end of 2014. Current trends are expected tocontinue with slow but steady growth in the fixed-line markets and fast growth in the mobile sectors, albeit at a slowing pace. CentralAsias mobile markets are by far the most liberalised and developed sectors in each of the countries. The Russian operators MTS,VimpelCom and MegaFon all have significant interests across the region, competing with each other and Nordic giant TeliaSonera,along with Turkeys Turkcell, through its joint venture with TeliaSonera, Fintur Holdings.The main development in the mobile market this quarter has been Swedens Tele2 acquiring a controlling stake in KazakhtelecomsGSM mobile unit, NeoTelecom. NeoTelecom is the smallest of Kazakhstans three GSM mobile operators but has been slowlybuilding up its market share. This represents Tele2s first foray into Central Asia but the operator does have experience of theCommonwealth of Independent States (CIS); Tele2 Russia is the fourth largest mobile operator in Russia. Tele2 has a reputation forefficient management and following a price leadership strategy and we are expecting it to have a notable impact on Kazakhstansmobile market. Tele2 has earmarked SEK2,400-2,600mn of capital expenditure in Kazakhstan between 2010 and 2013 and aims tohave more than 20% market share within four years of commercial re-launch. Tele2s main competitors will be VimpelComs KaR-Teland Finturs K-Cell. In October 2009 MTS Uzbekistan announced that it would trial LTE services in Uzbekistan. The announcementcame just one week after MTS fiercest rival in the region, VimpelCom, announced an LTE trial at its Kazakh subsidiary KaR-Tel. BMIhad not expected MTS and VimpelCom to choose countries in Central Asia for their LTE trials but given the underdeveloped wirelineinfrastructure in the region there is huge growth potential for mobile broadband services.As noted above the regions fixed-line markets are relatively underdeveloped and dominated by the countries respective fixed-lineincumbents. Competition in the markets does vary but even in the more developed markets such as Kazakhstan, competition is notparticularly fierce, with most alternative operators choosing to target the growing internet sectors over fixed-line. Nevertheless,fixed-line penetration in the region is increasing, albeit at a slow and steady pace. Going forward, we are not anticipating dramaticincreases in the regions fixed-line subscriber bases. Although fixed-line networks are being expanded, the mobile sectors areexpanding at a much faster rate and fixed-to-mobile substitution is expected to grow in prominence. Table of ContentExecutive Summary ....5SWOT Analysis ....6Central Asia Telecommunications SWOT ..... 6Business Environment ...........7Central Asia .7Table: Central Asia Business Environment Ratings 10Industry Forecast Scenario ...11Mobile ... 11Table: Central Asia Mobile Sector Historical Data & Forecasts ...... 11Uzbekistan ........ 12Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q1 2010 Page 1/5
  2. 2. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsKazakhstan ....... 13Kyrgyzstan ........ 14Tajikistan .......... 15Turkmenistan .... 16Fixed Line ......... 17Table: Central Asia Fixed-Line Sector Historical Data & Forecasts 17Market Data Analysis 20Mobile ........ 20Uzbekistan ........ 20Table: Uzbekistan Mobile Market, September 2009 ....... 23Kazakhstan ....... 23Table: Kazakhstan Mobile Market, September 2009 ....... 27Kyrgyzstan ........ 27Table: Kyrgyzstan Mobile Market, September 2009 (estimated) . 29Tajikistan .......... 29Table: Tajikistan Mobile Market, September 2009 . 32Turkmenistan .... 32Table: Turkmenistan Mobile Market, September 2009 ... 34Fixed Line .. 35Uzbekistan ........ 35Kazakhstan ....... 36Kyrgyzstan ........ 37Tajikistan .......... 38Turkmenistan .... 38Internet ...... 39Uzbekistan ........ 39Kazakhstan ....... 40Kyrgyzstan ........ 43Tajikistan .......... 45Turkmenistan .... 46Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments .....47Kazakhstan . 47Kazakhstan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ........ 48Kyrgyzstan . 49Kyrgyzstan: Regulatory Bodies And their Responsibilities ......... 50Tajikistan ... 50Tajikistan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities .......... 52Turkmenistan ......... 53Turkmenistan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ..... 54Uzbekistan . 54Uzbekistan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ........ 55Competitive Landscape ........57Key Players 57Table: Key Players Central Asia Telecoms Sector ....... 57Company Monitor .. 58Worldwide Smartphone Sales To End-Users In Q209 ..... 58Selected Profiles Operators .... 61Appendix: ...........70Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview .70Fixed Line ......... 70Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q1 2010 Page 2/5
  3. 3. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsTable: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview . 70Mobile ... 71Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview ....... 71Glossary Of Terms ....72Table: Glossary Of Terms ..... 72BMI Methodology ......73How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 73Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts ........ 73Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .... 74Table: Weighting Of Indicators ........ 75Table: Ratings Indicators ..... 76Sources . 76Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q1 2010 Page 3/5
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