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Trends in communication


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A graphic description of future trends in the communications and information industry

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Trends in communication

  1. 1. The Future of Communications: How Will The Market Evolve?
  2. 2. <ul><li>- Seeks to break monopolies and duopolies by creating broadband infrastructure and opening up space for competition </li></ul><ul><li>In pursuit of employment opportunities </li></ul>Governmental Regulation <ul><ul><li>Market self-regulation influence economic- dynamics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Incentive for investment comes form expected returns. </li></ul></ul>Corporate Interests Free-flow of Information and communication as an strategic tool for development, job creation and quality of life They both start from the same principle of creating wealth in society
  3. 3. Common carriers and Mass-media from 1 934 Communications Act until 1996 Telecommunications Act <ul><li>Necessary for well functioning of the state </li></ul><ul><li>Mostly monopoly and nearly monopoly providers </li></ul><ul><li>Service under surveillance by state and federal regulators </li></ul>Common carriers Mass-media <ul><li>Cross-ownership and concentration of ownership limited </li></ul><ul><li>Behavior under scrutiny and license renewal time </li></ul>
  4. 4. Both common carriers and mass media are required to serve the public but they differ on how to do so Invested in the status-quo regime Market-place oriented
  5. 5. Proper way to apply shared goals of fostering fair competition and developing the communications marketplace in ways that benefit the public <ul><li>Pro-marketplace push </li></ul><ul><li>Communications policy market oriented </li></ul><ul><li>Deregulatory approach </li></ul><ul><li>Democrats in Congress battle the F.C.C </li></ul><ul><li>Started since about three decades ago </li></ul><ul><li>Has provoked considerable regulation </li></ul><ul><li>Antitrust Act of 1 992 </li></ul><ul><li>Large media firm won waivers for cross-ownership rules </li></ul><ul><li>TV networks succeed lifting the rules banning them from content production during the 90’s </li></ul>
  6. 6. Proper way to apply shared goals of fostering fair competition and developing the communications marketplace in ways that benefit the public <ul><li>Argued that spectrum has become abundant </li></ul><ul><li>The major problems was to liberate the market to develop cheap, effective and diverse uses. </li></ul><ul><li>Consumer have new electronic options including cable and video-cassette </li></ul><ul><li>The public’s interest is what the public is interested in. ( Mark Fowler). </li></ul><ul><li>Spectrum remained scarce both because few outlets available for broadcast TV and because whoever was using over-the-air spectrum was monopolizing it </li></ul><ul><li>True diversity of sources and perspective requires social subsidy </li></ul>Marketplace Conservatives Status-quo Liberals
  7. 7. 1994 Proliferation of the Internet as a commercial service. 1996 President Clinton signed telecommunications Act <ul><li>Newt Gingrich” “Cyberspace and the American Dream </li></ul><ul><li>Third Wave society’s universal access to broadband communication </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce government barriers to entry and innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Permission to cable and telephone companies to unite to provide broadband services rather than forcing them to compete, to permit faster, more efficient construction of networks </li></ul><ul><li>The role for government is to remove barriers for competition and massively deregulate the telecommunications and computing industries </li></ul><ul><li>Social benefit provisions –included rights of disabled, children etc- not likely to be provided by the marketplace </li></ul><ul><li>Spectrum allocation for non-profit and public use went down from 20% to 5% </li></ul><ul><li>Requirement to provide all public TV channels on any video service </li></ul><ul><li>Abolition of price regulation of cable television services. </li></ul>Republicans in the House of Representatives 1 994 Regulation proponents
  8. 8. Concentration acculturation Language preference, inside and outside the Home Geodemographic context influences perceived pressure to acculturate Behaviors associated with the celebration of ethnic heritage (holidays, food, etc.) Concentration
  9. 9. Competition and Concentration acculturation Foreign born vs. US born Level of education at time of entry into US correlated with ease of transition Self-identified association with an ethnic group Acculturation increases as immigrants live extended periods of time in the US Competition SNS DIGITAL PHONE   DIGITAL CABLE BUNDLE Web Offers Wireless Offers
  10. 39. The number of cell phones in the world today is 1.5 billion and growing. Airlines will soon be allowing cell phones on planes. Cities such as Philadelphia and San Francisco have plans to blanket themselves with seamless Wi-Fi networks. Telecoms such as Verizon Communications and SBC Communications are doing trial runs of fiber to the home (FTTH), technology that promises broadband speeds of more than 100 times that of current digital subscriber lines (DSL) or cable. It all adds up to a future flooded with great, big wired and wireless pipelines of data coming at you from all directions in all locations at all times. To some, this will be a wonderland of entertainment and telecommunications possibilities. To others, this will be a nightmare of in-your-face digital annoyances. Communication Devices Of The Future Regardless of your views on the matter, this always-on, always-connected future will mean at least an evolution, and at most, a radical rethinking of the devices we use to communicate. Many strategists foresee a convergence of devices, creating one super-capable, portable widget that handles computing, communications, scheduling and finances. Another possibility is that cheap computing power will simply add intelligence to everything from our appliances to our clothing, and every object will join into an organically linked network. Other people see a need for electronics that can help us communicate in different and unorthodox ways--moving beyond mere voice and the written word.
  11. 40. By YUKARI IWATANI KANE , TING-I TSAI And NIRAJ SHETH Apple Inc. plans to begin producing this year a new iPhone that could allow U.S. phone carriers other than AT&T Inc. to sell the iconic gadget, said people briefed by the company. The new iPhone would work on a type of wireless network called CDMA, these people said. CDMA is used by Verizon Wireless, AT&T's main competitor, as well as Sprint Nextel Corp. and a handful of cellular operators in countries including South Korea and Japan. The vast majority of carriers world-wide, including AT&T, use another technology called GSM.
  12. 41. In a jointly penned op-ed Tuesday, Google CEO Eric Schmidt and Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg lauded the agency for its national broadband plan but also cautioned regulators against meddling too much where, the execs said, private industry has been doing just fine. &quot;The Internet has thrived in an environment of minimal regulation. While our two companies don't agree on every issue, we do agree generally as a matter of policy that the framework of minimal government involvement should continue,&quot; they said.
  13. 42. The Best Effort Network : This future embraces net neutrality and the demands by content providers and activists for a best-effort web, but “uncertainty about the potential to make a return on infrastructure investments could slow the pace of rollout and thus the transformation to new access technologies.” The Utopia Network : Somehow ISPs and content providers figure out how to set very specific rules over how traffic is prioritized and by whom. That level of certainty allows ISPs to make investments and ensures that new business models can emerge. The Cable Television Web : This Internet doesn’t refer to actual cable providers, but to the business model of selling premium content and services. This scenario is one where ISPs have figured out that they can build out managed services and charge based on delivering their own products at high quality. Other players and even consumers may end up with the scraps, unless they sign deals with the ISPs, as we’ve written about here . The Surveillance Web : This is the ISP-as-spy vision of the future. Because ISPs have to be responsible for what traverses their network, they are will become closed and less tolerant of experimentation, and innovation will flounder. Sweden Predicts the Future of Broadband
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  22. 53. Sources: <ul><ul><li>Patricia Aufderheide </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Verizon </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>AT&T </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Comcast </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sprint </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>American mobil </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The New York Times </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forbes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Washington Post </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gartner </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gigaom </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Comcast </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Apple </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>National Geographic </li></ul></ul>- Gridstone - eMarketer - Admob - Peter Rysavy