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Session 4A - Rajan Gupta

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Rajan Gupta, Los Alamos National Laboratory Presentation

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Session 4A - Rajan Gupta

  1. 1. National and International Energy Technology Policy Rajan Gupta Laboratory Fellow Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA LA-UR 11-11820 Poverty Index
  2. 2. Challenges faced by countries in their quest for inexpensive clean energy <ul><li>Economic Development </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Security </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reliable long-term supply </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ability to pay international market prices </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Energy Independence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Developing indigenous resources and capabilities </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Environmental Impacts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Emissions into the terrestrial system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emissions into the air </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greenhouse Gases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aerosols </li></ul></ul>Policy should address all five
  3. 3. Policies can promote transformation to sustainable clean energy systems through <ul><li>Investment in R&D </li></ul><ul><li>Workforce development </li></ul><ul><li>Subsidies and incentives </li></ul><ul><li>Captive/guaranteed markets </li></ul><ul><li>Favorable Tariffs </li></ul><ul><li>Regulations </li></ul><ul><li>Taxes </li></ul>Create Capacity and Reduce Risk
  4. 4. Subsidies, Incentives, Markets as instruments of policy should drive <ul><li>Innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Development of the human resource </li></ul><ul><li>Development of the associated infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Technology Transfer </li></ul><ul><li>Job Creation </li></ul><ul><li>Efficiency through scale up </li></ul>Policy should be part of a comprehensive framework
  5. 5. Without subsidies, incentives, guaranteed markets and without carbon/environment tax one would meet electric power needs through <ul><li>Coal-fired Power Plants </li></ul><ul><li>Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) </li></ul><ul><li>Hydroelectric </li></ul><ul><li>Wind </li></ul><ul><li>Solar, geothermal, waste, .. </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear </li></ul>The serious drawback of fossil fuels is GHG emissions Public opinion will play an increasing role
  6. 6. Solar and Wind: Issues <ul><li>Cost </li></ul><ul><li>Intermittency </li></ul><ul><li>Matching urban areas of high demand with low density resources </li></ul><ul><li>Scale of need ~5 TW </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Today: Wind is ~200 GW; Solar ~40 GW </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Integration into the grid </li></ul><ul><li>Human resource (smart grid) </li></ul>
  7. 7. Ain Beni Mathar Integrated Solar CCGT power plant, Morocco (20 solar + 450 gas MW) Role of CDM
  8. 8. What a competitive free market needs to thrive <ul><li>Demand </li></ul><ul><li>Resource security </li></ul><ul><li>Capital </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Skilled labor </li></ul><ul><li>Supportive and transparent long-term policies </li></ul>Free markets have not valued the commons without regulations and stiff penalties and they have not paid adequate attention to the needs of the marginalized
  9. 9. Comprehensive long-term policies coupled with a vision transform societies <ul><li>National Goal of China: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We will be the manufacturing center for the world and develop through education, R&D and Trade </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. High Speed Trains (Absorb, Adapt, Innovate, Dominate) <ul><li>1993 : Average v=48km/hr </li></ul><ul><li>2004 : HSR open bid </li></ul><ul><li>Alstom </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New Pendolino  CRH5 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Siemens </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ICE3  CRH3C </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bombardier </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CSR Sifang </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regina  CRH1A (2006) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Kawasaki </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E2 Sinkansen  CRH2A </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2008: China leads development of 380+ km/hr trains </li></ul>Investment, Market, Infrastructure, R&D
  11. 11. HST: Facilitating Trade & Opening up the Interior Industries and Jobs in all provinces (not just coastal)
  12. 12. Linking Asia & EU High Speed Trains will take < 4 days for the 12000 km Lianyungang-EU trip Connecting Korea Russia did not link EU to the East
  13. 13. Installed Capacity: China, India, USA Source: EIA, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html China & India have plans to add over 500 GW of nuclear capacity to meet their power needs GigaWatts Gas Coal
  14. 14. Installed Wind Capacity – Top 10 Countries China United States Germany Spain India Italy France UK Canada Denmark Source: Global Wind Energy Council Compiled by Curtt Ammerman
  15. 15. Top Wind Turbine Manufacturers 27% 15% 14% 14% 7% 7% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Vestas (Denmark) Gamesa (Spain) General Electric (US) Enercon (Germany) Suzlon (India) Siemens (Germany) Nordex (Germany) Acciona (Spain) Goldwind (China) REpower (Germany) (others) 2006 (15.2 GW) 12% 11% 10% 10% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 11% Vestas (Denmark) Sinovel (China) General Electric (US) Goldwind (China) Enercon (Germany) Gamesa (Spain) Dongfang (China) Suzlon (India) Siemens (Germany) United Power (China) Mingyang (China) REpower (Germany) Sewind (China) Nordex (Germany) XEMC (China) (others) 2010 (35.8 GW) 38% China Compiled by Curtt Ammerman
  16. 16. Solar PV manufacturing capacity Source: http://www.ren21.net/Portals/97/documents/GSR/REN21_GSR2011.pdf Cost of PV modules: $1.30-1.80/Watt p Cost of installation: ~constant at $3-4/Watt p
  17. 17. Cornering Markets: Power Systems Manufacturing Capacity Countries need markets to maintain capacity China India Total2010 Thermal (Coal) ~ 100 GW 5-7 GW Nuclear Developing standardized LWR, HWR, FNR with cost goal of $2000/kW Standardized 660 MW PHWR yet to be commercialized Hydro T&G sets ~20 GW ~2 GW Solar cells & modules 9 GW 1.5 GW imports wafers from China 24 Wind Turbines 13 GW Local Content Law 2004-09 3.5 GW One company = Suzlon 36
  18. 18. Promoting Regional Cooperation: The most effective and economical way of transporting natural gas is through pipelines Morocco–Indonesia can develop using natural gas Multiple benefits of regional cooperation
  19. 19. ASEAN
  20. 20. Counter example: the Indian Subcontinent
  21. 21. Policy aligned with National Goals <ul><li>England (19 th Century) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The sun never sets on the British Empire </li></ul></ul><ul><li>USA: 1940 – 2000 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We will be the most powerful nation in the world economically and militarily </li></ul></ul><ul><li>China: 2000 – </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We will be the manufacturing center for the world and develop through education, R&D and Trade. </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. What is our goal post 2000? <ul><li>We will be the innovators of the world </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Investment in education </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Investment in R&D </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Investment in infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Policies to encourage risk taking/entrepreneurs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>My concerns with this goal are: </li></ul><ul><li>It does not engage the population broadly </li></ul><ul><li>It may not generate enough revenue </li></ul>We are falling behind

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