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Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
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Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
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Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
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Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
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Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
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Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
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Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
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Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
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Vernacular Is NOW, Not The Future – A $300 Bn Opportunity Today

  1. Vernacular is NOW, not the future A $300 Bn Opportunity Today Perspective on Vernacular Advertising Opportunities July, 2019
  2. Vernacular is NOW, not the future A $300 Bn Opportunity Today
  3. 1. Preface 4 2. Glossary 5 3. Executive Summary 8 4.Agenda 10 • Monetizable Internet Users 10 • Monetizable Vernacular Users 19 • Opportunity for new-age full stack content players in 2023 29 LOREM IPSUM LOREM IP 3 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  4. Preface As the data prices have decreased post Jio, the growth of internet users in India has received global attention. While the profile of an internet user 5 years ago was fairly uniform (English speaking, Metro or Tier-1 city, Male); today, it is a lot more heterogenous. The rise of multiple social media, content and OTT platforms to cater to this diverse user base is a testament to this. Today’s advertiser has to navigate through this digital maze to reach a “monetizable user”. While, in the past, advertisers have stuck to English users as a proxy; it is no longer feasible as this user base is growing much slower than the vernacular user base. There has been a larger tendency to consider vernacular user base as non-monetizable but it is increasingly becoming evident that not only these users have a spend capacity, they are willing to engage on digital media, given the right tools. Today, the advertisers are spending more than 90% of digital ad dollars on English ads largely because there is a lack of understanding of this user base. Through this report, RedSeer has tried to break some long-standing myths as well as create a greater understanding of the opportunity that the vernacular user base presents for the advertisers. Anil Kumar Founder and CEO, RedSeer Consulting We are the largest home grown advisory company in India An Advisory firm with strong credentials Strongverticalfocusacross Healthcare, Educationand Retail-CPG Leadershippositionin Indian e-commerce industry Haveadvisedfundson $23Bn+ ofinvestmentdecisions viaourCommercialDue Diligence 90 + ofIndianOnlineGMVis ourclientele Clients200+ 50+Fundsand 150+Corporates Engagements 2000+ 500+withFunds Employees 150+ Employees150+ Across5locations (BangaloreIMumbaiINew DelhiIDubaiINew-York) 4 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  5. Glossary 5 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  6. City Class Definition Tier-1 Metros (Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, Chennai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Pune and Hyderabad) and Cities with population more than 10 Lakh (1 million) Tier 2+ & Rural All of the following categories: Tier-2 • Cities with population between 5-10 Lakh (0.5-1 million) Tier-3 • Cities with population between 2-5 Lakh (0.2-0.5 million) Tier-4 • Cities with population 1-2 Lakh (0.1-0.2 million) Rest of Urban • Other cities classified as Urban as per Census 2011 Rural • Cities/Towns/Villages classified as Rural as per Census 2011 Economic Class Definition NCCS A No. of consumer durables is 6/7/8+ and education of CWE is at least College (non- grad), SSC/HSC, no formal schooling beyond 4 years respectively NCCS B No. of consumer durables is 4/5/6/7/8+ and education of CWE1is at least College (non- grad), SSC/HSC, between no formal schooling to SSC/HSC, Schooling up to 9 years, illiterate respectively NCCS C No. of consumer durables is 3/4/5/6/7/ and education of CWE is at least College (non-grad), between up to 4 years of schooling to college, illiterate to up to 9 years of schooling and illiterate respectively NCCS DE Rest of the population having up to 3 consumer durables or having lower literacy levels Glossary (1/2) – City classification and NCCS classification definitions 1: CWE – Chief WageEarner 6 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  7. Term Definition Indian Population (as of 2018) 1350 Mn = 500 Mn Internet Users (aged above 14 yrs) + 30 Mn internet users (aged below 14 yrs) + 400 Mn Internet Non-Users (aged above 14 yrs) + 420 Mn Internet non- users (aged below 14 yrs) Vernacular Users Users whose preferred language for content consumption on digital media is a vernacular language (and not English) Digital Ad B2C advertisements on digital platform including but not limited to social media, OTT, content platforms, gaming and e-commerce platforms Digital Media Internet, Online and Digital Media have been used interchange-ably in this report. It includes: a) both wired and wireless access b) both broadband (3G, 4G etc.) and narrowband (2G etc.) speeds c) desktop, smartphone and other internet-enabled devices Social Media and Content Includes Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Dailyhunt, Sharechat, TikTok, YouTube, UCNews, NewsDog and, other similar social media and content platforms FB Refers to Facebook OTT Over-The-Top players such as Netflix, Prime Video, Hotstar, Sony Liv, Voot etc. Gaming Mobile games like PUBG, Candy Crush, Angry Birds etc. Music Streaming Apps like Wynk Music, JioSaavn, Prime Music, Gaana, Spotify etc. Conventional Media Non-internet media (Print, Radio and TV) MAU Monthly Active Users MTU Monthly Transacting Users Glossary (2/2) – Other key definitions 7 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  8. India had an active internet user base of 530 Mn users in 2018, comprising 260 Mn “monetizable” users (NCCS A/B/C), which is expected to grow to 400 Mn by 2023 owing to expedited growth in the overall number of internet users. Consumption of digital content in vernacular language is a preference for 80% of all monetizable users, i.e., 210 Mn users with an annual spending power of $300 Bn. However, the low quality perception of online vernacular content forces a high proportion of these users to access Facebook in English, leading to a whitespace. A growth in the number of vernacular monetizable users is expected to create a $3 Bn vernacular digital ad opportunity for new-age full stack content players in 2023. This opportunity is also driven by the growth of digital media, currently growing at 2X as compared to conventional media. Executive Summary $3 Bn Vernacular Digital Ad opportunity is expected to be generated in 2023, driven by growth of monetizable vernacular users
  9. Monetizable Internet Users 260 Mn in 2018, and will add 140 Mn to reach 400 Mn by 2023 • Out of 530 Mn internet users, 260 Mn users are “monetizable” (NCCS A/B/C), and also account for almost all of online transactions. • 80% of current internet non-users are expected to adopt internet by 2023, to take the overall count of internet users to 850 Mn by 2023. • Driven by the growth, number of monetizable users are expected to grow to 400 Mn by 2023 i.e. 140 Mn to be added in the next 5 years. Monetizable Vernacular Users 210 Mn in 2018 (80% of all monetizable internet users, expected to grow at 10% for the next 5 years to reach ~340 Mn) • 80% of all monetizable users i.e. 210 Mn prefer content in vernacular language. These users will drive the growth of Consumer Internet with USD 300 Bn annual spending power . • These users are spending ~56% of their time on the internet (esp. on smartphones) as compared to other media (TV, Print and Radio). • ‘Social Media and Content’ drives their consumption of time in internet, with rural consumption higher than that of urban. However: • 80% of the vernacular user base accesses FB in English due to low quality perception of online vernacular content. This base can be tapped if quality of vernacular content can be improved. • In addition, non FB media also needs to be focused as FB is losing time share to other social media / internet media. Opportunity for New-Age Full Stack Content Players in 2023 $3 Bn Vernacular Digital Ad • Growth in the number of vernacular monetizable users will make vernacular digital ad spends grow by ~10x, translating into a $3 Bn opportunity in 2023. • This is also driven by growth of Digital media, which is growing at 2X as compared to conventional media, and is likely to reach USD ~10Bn in 2023. • Non Google / FB players will see a business growth by ~6X ($600 Mn to $3.5 Bn). • Video ads will grow by ~7X, to double their share of digital ad spend. 9 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  10. Agenda Monetizable Internet Users 260 Mn in 2018, and will add 140 Mn to reach 400 Mn by 2023 • Out of 530 Mn internet users, 260 Mn users are “monetizable” (NCCS A/B/C), and also account for almost all of online transactions. • 80% of current internet non-users are expected to adopt internet by 2023, to take the overall count of internet users to 850 Mn by 2023. • Driven by the growth, number of monetizable users are expected to grow to 400 Mn by 2023 i.e. 140 Mn to be added in the next 5 years. 10 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  11. Internet Users India’s internet adoption reached 530 Mn at a run rate of 65 Mn users per year in the last 2 years - ~8x of 8 Mn users added per year from 2000 to 2009 Internet adoption started in India at the onset of the new millennium. Early adopters received low-speed internet (56 kbit/s) on dial-up modems. Desktop computers were the devices used to access the internet. The average rate of adoption was 8 Mn users per year. The story started to change as low cost 2G enabled phones started flooding the market and websites became mobile friendly. On an average, 36 Mn people per year got access to the internet. Soon after, a seismic shift was witnessed on two fronts – in internet technology with the introduction of 3G and in internet-enabled devices with the introduction of affordable Android smartphones. The faster 3G speeds and the affordability of smartphones increased the adoption rate to 45 Mn users per year. But the biggest disruption was yet to come. In Sept 2016, internet was essentially commoditized with the entry of Reliance Jio in the market. Data costs fell by 93% from pre-Jio rates.. A phenomenal 65 Mn users on an average adopted internet every year from 2016 onwards. With close to 530 Mn internet users, India has the world’s second largest internet user base, presenting a huge opportunity in terms of digital market size. 2000 CY09 CY12 CY16 CY18 Year 72 Mn 530 Mn 180 Mn 360 Mn 65 45 36 8 Desktop Internet Internet enabled 2G phones No. of Internet Users Low cost 3G enabled Smartphones Jio - Affordable 4G LTE Key Drivers of Adoption Million Users added per Year X Digital Users # of internet users (Mn); CY2000-CY18 11 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  12. Although India’s internet population is about 530 Mn, ~57% of them (~300 Mn) access internet regularly. The rest are intermittent users who lack continuous access to internet for reasons such as insufficient data plans, unreliable network connection etc. Of the 300 Mn active internet users, about 2/3rd are online service transactors – the ones who use the internet for booking tickets, recharging phones/DTH, paying for utilities, and making payments via UPI, mobile wallets, mobile banking and others. More than half of the online service transactors are product shoppers who make at least 1 transaction on any e-tailing platform in a year. Hyperlocal users are the ones who utilize smartphone based applications for food, grocery, medicinal and commute solutions. They are concentrated in the top cities but service providers, especially food-tech companies and cab aggregators, are aggressively expanding into non Tier 1 cities. This set of users is expected to see the maximum growth going forward. A deep understanding of the online transaction behaviour of users would enable companies to advertise on relevant online platforms basis the type of user and traffic volume on the platform. Device: Desktop/Feature Phone/Smartphone Age Group: 7% of 400 Mn below 14 yrs2; rest are 14+ yrs. Usage: Both intermittent and continuous Only continuous usage and may or may not transact online. Typically accesses for social media, search and WhatsApp. Books tickets online from IRCTC or Travel Aggregators, recharges, makes payments. May or may not shop online. Performs at least one transaction on any online retail platform in a year. May or may not be a hyperlocal user. Orders food, cabs, grocery and medicines online. (Mn Users, CY18) India’s Digital Funnel Description of a Typical User AccessTo¹ Internet 530 100% 300+ ~57% 200+ ~40% 110 ~20% 50 ~10% Active Internet Users Online Service Transactors Products Shoppers Hyperlocal Internet Users Out of 530 Mn, 57% people are Active internet users (rest have intermittent access), 20% shop for products online… Note(s): 1.Access to internet includes users who use internet on a shared device 2. Assuming only 7% of people below 14 years of age have uninterrupted access to internet 12 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  13. All active internet users may not be monetizable as some of them may have limited spending ability. Hence, a socio- economic segmentation of all internet users paints a clearer picture about the monetizability of the users. Such a segmentation shows that ~260 Mn internet users are NCCS A/B/C classified – the ones who have higher spending ability – and are monetizable. Also, almost all of the online service transactors are NCCS A/B/C classified. When it comes to geography, we observe that there’s a 60%-40% urban-rural split in people having access Note(s): 1. The population below the age of 14 years (~30 Mn) has not been considered under monetizable population to internet. A significant bulk of the online transactors belong to urban areas. We expect this picture to evolve as businesses expand to reach more of the rural population. Socio-Economic Segmentation of Internet Users (Mn Users, CY18) 260 210 Internet Users Aged above 14 years Hyperlocal Users NCCS A/B/C NCCS D/E 30 240 Active Internet Users Aged below 14 Years¹ Online Product Service Shoppers Transactors Monetizable 90 200 110 50 Smartphone Internet enabled feature phone NCCS A/B/C ~240 Mn ~20 Mn NCCS D/E ~140 Mn ~100 Mn Monetizable Internet Users …, and 260 Mn users are “monetizable” (NCCS A/B/C), who drive almost all online transactions 13 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  14. Currently, there are ~400 Mn adults who do not have access to internet. While there are a variety of reasons for the same, all of them can be broadly characterized by 3 barriers: Access: This is the biggest barrier in terms of number of people affected by it – people living in regions where infrastructure hasn’t developed enough for internet access or people who belong to the marginalized sections of the society Affordability: There are people who may be living in areas where there is adequate infrastructure, but they lack the financial means to purchase and maintain a internet supported device Aspirations: There is a certain section of people who »either do not know about the benefits of internet or » do know about the benefits of internet but don’t perceive those to be beneficial enough to them This is the segment of non-internet users who are most likely to become users as the value proposition for internet usage grows due to wider use-cases. Barriers to Internet Usage Descriptive 40-60 Mn (10-15%) - 80-100 Mn (20-25%) Not in mainstream economy Reside in far-flung areas Low income Aspiring internet users Low aspirations Low awareness of use-cases XX Population (Mn) 1. Aspirations No perceived benefits from internet 2. Affordability Lack of internet enabled device 3. Access Lack of access to internet 220-240 Mn (55-60%) Major Barriers User Characteristics Growth and Monetizable Opportunity On the other hand, there are ~400Mn non internet users who face different barriers to adoption… 14 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  15. As the barriers are lowered, the internet penetration will gradually grow. Most of the people who may not currently perceive benefits from the internet will eventually become users as essential systems (like banking, insurance, passports, utilities etc.) gain mass online adoption. Recent trends in the market shows that certain telecom players like Jio are adopting novel customer adoption mechanisms. Jio is essentially cross-subsidizing low priced devices by engaging customers through data or content. This phenomenon is expected to pan out sufficiently in the next 5 years such that affordability of internet devices may not be a barrier any more. a longer time to overcome as it needs to be solved at a policy level. India, along with assistance from large corporates, is making progress in developing infrastructure. But inclusion is a more complex barrier that will take New Users Added to Digital User Base (Millions of Users, CY18-CY23) Growth and Monetizable Opportunity …and as the barriers are lowered, ~320 Mn are likely to adopt internet by 2023, out of which a significant number is likely to be of active internet users 530 2018 50 Aspirations 90 Affordability Access 180 850 2023F 1 2 3 Very likely to be ‘Active Internet Users’. Likely to be intermittent internet users initially. 15 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  16. With the growth of internet penetration, the number of active internet users is expected to double in the next 5 years. However, the growth down the funnel is expected to be higher; with online service transactors growing at 2.1X, product shoppers growing at 2.5X and hyperlocal users growing at 3X. A high proportion of the growth in active internet users can be attributed to the first time users in Tier 2+ cities and rural areas. As the active internet user base increases, users are understandably keen to explore the enhanced efficiency and convenience that various online services such as shopping, banking, utility payments, hyperlocal services offer to them. This explains the higher growth rate down the funnel. The affordability of smartphones and deeper internet penetration will also act as enablers for onboarding the new users. India’s Digital User Base (Mn Users, CY18) Access ToInternet 530 100% 300+ ~57% 200+ ~40% 110 ~20% 50 ~10% Active Internet Users Online Service Transactors Products Shoppers Hyperlocal # Smartphone Users (Mn) 400 ~730 850 100% 580+ ~68% 420+ ~49% 270 ~32% 150 ~18% 1.6x ~2x 2.1x ~2.5x 3x 14% 10% 16% 20% 25% CAGR 10-15% CAGR (18-23) Orderof Growth Growth and Monetizable Opportunity Therefore, number of active internet users will double in the next 5 years, with growth down the funnel expected to increase even faster (2 to 3X) (CY23F) 16 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  17. Owing to increased internet penetration and the advent of affordable internet-enabled smartphones which support various E-tailing applications, the growth in the number of online shoppers in Tier 2/3 cities and rural areas is expected to outpace that of urban areas. According to estimates, almost 70% of E-tailing GMV would come from Tier 2+ and rural areas by 2023, compared to 40% in 2018. The rise in disposable income and increased penetration of smartphones and internet access in these areas is expected to be the primary growth driver for the advent of online shopping. User preferences are also expected to evolve, especially with the younger population in Tier 2+ cities, who are open to experimenting with the enhanced options that online shopping provides them. E-tailers are also trying to capture this growing market by improving last mile connectivity and offering deep discounts to onboard new users, with the expectation of converting a high proportion into repeat customers. Number of Annual Unique Online Product Shoppers E-Tailing GMV by Customer Type (CY18-CY23F, Mn) (CY18-CY23F, USD Bn, Descriptive) CY18 CY20F ~110 Mn ~180 Mn ~270 Mn 28% 11% CY23F Tier 1 Tier 2 + & Rural 60 83 100 50 60 40 35 65 3.5x 97 170 CY18 CY20F ~$22 Bn ~$40-45 Bn ~$70-75 Bn CY23F 30 70 # of Tier 2+ and Rural shoppers to be more than # Tier 1 shoppers # of Tier-2+ and Rural shoppers to be 1.6x of # Tier1 shoppers Growth and Monetizable Opportunity Growth in online shoppers will be driven by Tier 2+ & Rural/ vernacular users – they are expected to grow by 3.5 X to become ~1.6 times of Tier 1 users by 2023 17 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  18. The number of monetizable internet users will grow by ~140 Mn to reach ~400 Mn by 2023 owing to high internet adoption amongst the non-internet users and the transition of several users from NCCS D/E to NCCS A/B/C. Out of 140 Mn, 100 Mn (~70%) will come from non Tier 1 cities. This translates to a large spending power. Presence on digital platforms will give the brands ability to micro-target these users, which is difficult on traditional advertising platforms such as TV, Print etc. Also, the growth in non-monetizable users during the same period is expected to be 70%. This makes it important for advertisers to understand the platform’s reach in a more nuanced manner, to ensure efficient targeting. Socio-Economic Classification of Digital Users (CY18) (CY23F) NCCS A, B, C NCC S D, E <14 Yrs, All NCCS 300 380 15 400 410 40 69 5 15 5 100 30 25 NCCS A, B, C Tier 1 Tier 2+ & Rural NCCS D, E <14 Yrs, All NCCS 200 220 10 260 240 30 Monetizable Users >14 Yrs 43 0 10 0 60 20 20 Tier 2+ & Rural Tier 1 >14 Yrs Growth and Monetizable Opportunity All in all, India will add ~140Mn monetizable users to reach ~400Mn by 2023, as more people adopt internet, and transition from NCCS D/E to NCCS A/B/C 18 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  19. Agenda Monetizable Vernacular Users 210 Mn in 2018 (80% of all monetizable internet users, expected to grow at 10% for the next 5 years to reach ~340 Mn) • 80% of all monetizable users i.e. 210 Mn prefer content in vernacular language. These users will drive the growth of Consumer Internet with USD 300 Bn annual spending power. • These users are spending ~56% of their time on the internet (esp. on smartphones) as compared to other media (TV, Print and Radio). • ‘Social Media and Content’ drives their consumption of time in internet, with rural consumption higher than that of urban. However: »80% of the vernacular user base accesses FB in English due to low quality perception of online vernacular content. This base can be tapped if quality of vernacular content can be improved. »In addition, non FB media also needs to be focused as FB is losing time share to other social media / internet media. 19 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  20. A Pan-India survey was conducted by Redseer, spread across demographics and internet usage patterns to determine the importance of the vernacular user in the present day digital space. This was one of the largest surveys designed to try and understand the impact of monetizable internet users. An important aspect of this wide-reaching survey was understanding the preferences and consumption patterns of English-first Vs. Vernacular- first users. Note: This map is intended only as an indicative representation of the country and may not have been prepared for or suitable from a legal/geo political standpoint 26 cities 26 cities 23 cities 24 cities West India North India South India East India North East India Areas Covered Research Coverage 121 Cities & Towns 5 Geographies 2400 Internet Users 600 Non Internet users 22 cities Research Methodology We conducted 3000 surveys in 121 cities across India, with the samples spread across geographies, and internet usage patterns 20 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  21. Note(s): 1. Can switch keyboards between English and Vernacular Vernacular users can be classified into three broad segments: Vernacular Pure: These users have a strong preference for their vernacular language and their basic phone usage (phone settings, keyboard), social engagement via phone (social media, communication, etc.) and online content consumption is in their vernacular language. They comprise 20% of all monetizable users. Vernacular Intermediate: These users prefer English as the basic phone usage language, while social engagement and online content consumption is in the vernacular language. They comprise 30% of all monetizable users. Vernacular First: These users prefer English for basic phone usage and social engagement, whilst preferring to consume online content in their vernacular language. They comprise 30% of all monetizable users. Classfication of Users (CY18) (Basis propensity to use Vernacular Vs. English) Vernacular Pure Vernacular Intermediate Vernacular First Mostly English Users BasicPhone Usage NCCS D/E Phone Settings Keyboard1 Engagement Social Media SMS/WhatsApp Content Consumption Videos News Movies Music % of All Monetizable Users (Mn Users) 20% (52 Mn) 30% (78 Mn) 30% (78 Mn 20% (52 Mn) Vernacular Monetizable Users ~210 Mn (80% of all monetizable users - 260 Mn) Vernacular User Base There are ~210Mn internet users who prefer consuming content in vernacular languages, and are monetizable 21 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  22. Vernacular monetizable internet users have a 3X total spending power when compared to monetizable English internet users. With approximately 210 Mn monetizable users in India, with a per capita average annual spend of $1400-$1500, the total annual spending power of this segment translates to ~$300 Bn. In comparison, the total annual spending power of monetizable English users is $155 Bn. This highlights the importance of the vernacular user in the evolving digital space. While advertisers are reaching English users, it is only 25% of the total spend capacity. Almost 75% of the spend capacity is still untouched as Vernacular-first users are less likely to engage with English ads. Segment-wise Total Annual Consumption Economic Value of Vernacular Users These vernacular-monetizable internet users have a total spending power of ~USD 300 Bn i.e. ~2x when compared to English Internet Users -750 Mn ~375 Bn -50 Mn - $3000-$3200 $155 Bn -210 Mn $1400-$1500 ~$300 Bn <$500 Monetizable English Internet Users Population (Mn People) Per CapitaAverage Annual Spends (USD) TotalSpending Power (Mn People) Non Monetizable or Non Internet Users Monetizable Vernacular Internet Users ~2x Note(s) and Assumption(s): 1. Children below 14 yrs of age are excluded in this analysis 2. Income inflation 2015-18 is 6% 3. Average Savings rate of 30% 4. Effective tax rate of 25%,15% and 5% for relevant income bracket 5. 1 USD = INR 65 22 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  23. The projected growth in the vernacular monetizable user base would create a sizeable monetizable population, boosting vernacular digital ad spends. Vernacular platforms offer higher engagement as compared to English platforms. This, in combination with maturing vernacular platforms translates into a $3 Bn opportunity for vernacular digital ad spend. Monetizable Digital Population 2018-23 Digital Ad Spend - Vernacular v English (Mn. Users) (USD Bn.) Vernacular monetizable users will increase to ~340 Mn in 2023… … which will drive 10x growth in vernacular digital ad spend 2018 F2023 80% English Monetizable User Vernacular Monetizable User 85% 20% ~260 Mn ~400 Mn 15% 2018 $3 Bn Opportunity F2023 5-10% 25-30% 70-75% 90-95% CAGR ~75% CAGR ~32% $10Bn Vernacular Digital opportunity Growth in number of vernacular monetizable users will make vernacular digital ad spends grow ~10x, translating into a $3 Bn opportunity in 2023 23 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  24. The media consumption pattern of these users highlights their viability as a target segment for digital advertising. It was abundantly clear that the internet was the main mode of media consumption in 2018, with users spending 56% (189 mins) of the time. This translates to a 19% growth in the time spent on the internet for media consumption over 2015. Smartphones have enjoyed a rapid growth in the Indian market in recent years and this is highlighted by the fact that smartphones emerged as the preferred medium of consumption for most internet-based activities such as social media and content, OTT Platforms and online shopping. The growth in internet consumption at the expense of TV and Print can be attributed to a combination of content and convenience based factors. • Ability to view more personalized content. • Convenient availability of a larger assortment of content. • Better control over viewing time. • Higher mobility. • Real time news and updates Television viewing could be increasing on overall base owing to low-income population spending more time on the same. 2015 2018 36 56 (189 mins) 38 26 30 14 308 mins 337 mins -16% -5% +19% For social media and content Smartphones is the preferred medium For OTT Platforms For shopping online 84% 90% 76% Desktop 2% 15% 1% 6%4% 36% Desktop & Smartphone Smartphone Internet TV Print & Radio Internet has surpassed all other media consumption modes… … with Smartphones emerging as the preferred consumption medium. Media Engagement by Vernacular Users These users are spending more time spent on the internet (esp. on smartphones) as compared to other media (TV, Print and Radio)… 24 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  25. While music streaming, gaming and OTT platforms together accounted for 31% of the time spent on the internet (across both rural and urban areas), social media and content took up a staggering 69% of the daily time spent browsing the internet by vernacular users. Rural consumption of social media and content is ~18% greater than that in urban areas, fueled by a markedly high non-video consumption. Approximately 30% of India’s internet has been online for less than 3 years. This new user base is increasingly addicted to consume content online. The sheer amount of time spent daily on these platforms gives advertisers an opportunity to target these users. The higher video consumption in urban areas is due to higher internet speeds and a more evolved user base. 69% Social Media and Content OTT Gaming Music Streaming Short-Format Videos Non-Video 19% 6% 6% Urban Rural 59 56 67 93 Average Daily Time Spent on Internet (Mins per Day) 187 mins 126 mins 149 mins A largely similar trend is observed in urban as well as rural areas. 2015 Note(s): 1. Non-video means content browsing, news and photos on platforms like Facebook, Instagram, Dailyhunt etc. 2. Short format videos are defined as videos with duration <10mins – could be on the above platforms ordifferent. Media Engagement by Vernacular Users …, and most of the share of their time spent on internet is on Social media and Content, with rural consumption higher than that of urban 25 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  26. 2015 2018 80% Disagree U s es F B in English Strongly Agree Agree U s es F B in vernacular 43% Others* 20% 56% 111 Mins per day 189 Mins per day 2015 Vernacular Monetizable User Base 2018 you agree that quality vernacular content is not available online? 80% 12% 21% 20% 67% 210 Mn 189 Mins per day Mostly Vernacular platforms Share of FB is going down as most of the vernacular users are moving to vernacular platforms. 80% of vernacular monetizable users use FB in English driven by negative perception of vernacular content quality. Vernacular users are spending significantly lower time on Facebook. From spending 80% of the time spent on social media and content on Facebook in 2015, users were allocating only 43% of their time on Facebook in 2018. Another issue is the negative perception of vernacular content quality. This has forced almost 80% of the vernacular monetizable users to use Facebook in English. Facebook was one of the first popular social media platforms, and a lot of newly onboarded internet users started their online journey with Facebook. As users are evolving, they are looking for more personalized and engaging content. Users still perceive Facebook to be an English-first platform and hence, find other avenues for vernacular content and social media needs. This represents a huge opportunity for other social/content platforms to attract the vernacular user base. Media Engagement by Vernacular Users Vernacular users are spending significantly lower time on FB, which is being replaced by mostly vernacular platforms 26 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  27. Note(s) and Assumption(s): 1. Income inflation 2015-18 is 6% 2. Average Savings rate of 30% 3. Effective tax rate of 15% and 5% for relevant incomebracket 4. 1 USD = INR 65 Population Engagement Spending Power Monetizable Populationsize Time spent on social media Social media vs. other Internet (2018) Per capita annual average spend Total spend potential (USD Bn.) CAGR (2018-23) Growth in media consumption (2015-18) English Monetizable 50 Mn 130 Mins 1.7x $3000-$3200 ~155 4% 13% Vernacular Monetizable 210 Mn 150 Mins 2X $1400-1500 ~300 10% 9% Vernacular Monetizable Users Key Takeaways Vernacular users are bulk of the monetizable users and will drive the growth of Consumer Internet with USD 300 Bn annual spending power 27 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  28. Vernacular Digital opportunity Also, digital ad spend is significantly expected to increase for non FB / Google internet platforms (6X), and video ads across platforms (7X) by 2023 Non Google/FB internet platforms are expected to see a high rate of growth in the next five years. Owing to the English-first perception attached to Google/FB, other platforms with a focus on the vernacular-first user base are poised to fill this gap. Additionally, these platforms already have a sizeable existing user base (100 Mn+ MAU for certain platforms), thereby having a strong base for scaling up. Another important enabler for the growth of these platforms is highly engaging and personalized content such as hyperlocal content, news etc., enhancing the relatability of the platform for the vernacular user. Non Google / FB players will see a business growth by ~6X (USD 600 Mn to USD 3.5 Bn) Video ads will grow by ~7X, to double their share of digital ad spend Digital Ad. Market (Google+ FB v Others) Digital ad spend (Video v Non-Video) (USD Bn.) (USD Bn.) 2018 2023 $10Bn 65% $3 Bn 20% 80% 35% 2018 $3 Bn F2023 $10Bn 80% 40% 20% 60% CAGR ~10% CAGR ~45% Video Ads Non Video Ads Google + Facebook Other Players 28 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  29. Agenda Opportunity for new-age full stack content players in 2023 $3 Bn Vernacular Digital Ad • Growth in the number of vernacular monetizable users will make vernacular digital ad spends grow by ~10x, translating into a $3 Bn opportunity in 2023. • This is also driven by growth of Digital media, which is growing at 2X as compared to conventional media, and is likely to reach USD ~10Bn in 2023. • Non Google / FB players will see a business growth by ~6X ($600 Mn to $3.5 Bn). • Video ads will grow by ~7X, to double their share of digital ad spend. 29 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  30. Digital media has a current reach of 530 Mn users, in only 18 years of existence (computing from 2000). In comparison to ad spends on traditional forms of media such as TV, Radio and Print, digital ad spends are projected to grow at almost double the rate in the next 5 years to reach ~$10 Bn. The faster growth in digital ad spend can be attributed to the following broad factors: Consumer Internet, which is a large contributor to digital media ads, has witnessed a steep growth curve in recent years. The time spent on digital media is higher than other media forms. Compared to other media forms, digital has witnessed the fastest growth in reach, thereby improving its efficacy targeting a larger set of the population. With 530 Mn users reach already, Digital media is expected to grow the fastest… … and is expected to grow at ~2X when compared to other media (27% vs. 14%) Ad spend (Digital v Others) (USD Bn.) Medium CAGR of Reach ( CY18-23) Ad-Spend on Medium (CY18) Reach (Mn users, CY18) Years of Exis- tence Digital 14% $3.0 Bn 530 18 (Since 2000) TV 8% $4.8 Bn 835 59 (Since 1959) Radio 7% $0.4 Bn 700 91 (Since 1927) Print 1% $3.4 Bn 350 238 (Since 1780) 2018 ~$12 Bn F2023 25-30% (~$3 Bn) 35-40% (~$10 Bn) 60-65% 70-75% CAGR ~27% Digital Other Media CAGR ~14% ~$23Bn Vernacular Digital opportunity This is also driven by growth of Digital media, which is growing at 2X as compared to conventional media, and is likely to reach USD ~10Bn in 2023 30 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  31. (1) Internet Users (2) Digital Ad Spends On Internet Active Internet Users ~2x Growth ~3.3x Growth Monetizable Users ~1.5x Growth On Vernacular Internet Platforms ~10x Growth Active Internet Users ~1.6x Growth On Non- Fb/Google Platforms2 ~6x Growth Spending power - Vernac Monetizable ~2x Growth On Video platforms2 ~7x Growth CY18 CY18 CY18 CY18 CY18 CY18 CY18 CY18 CY23F CY23F CY23F CY23F CY23F CY23F CY23F CY23F 300Mn $3Bn 260Mn $0.3Bn 210Mn $0.6Bn $300Bn $0.6Bn 580Mn $10Bn 400Mn $3Bn 340Mn $3.5Bn $650Bn1 $4Bn Key Takeaways As internet becomes the most preferred medium, specifically with significant rise in vernacular users, digital ad spends on vernacular platforms will rise significantly Note(s): 1. $650 Bn in CY23 = 340 Mn Vernacular monetizable users (CY23) x ~$1900 per capita annual spend ($1450 annual spend in CY19, increased at 6% yearly inflation until CY23); 2. For both English and Vernac content / ads; 31 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  32. A number of new age businesses have already taken the first steps towards incorporating vernacular users and tap into this high potential digital advertisement market. A few use-cases being implemented are as follows: • Growing transactions from customer • Growing engagement with partner • Engaging users through vernacular content assortment Source(s): Redseer Analysis * As reported in media Transactional Service Providers Content Providers User Base Vernacular Reach 10 Mn+ (MTU) Support for 12 languages which covers majority of Ola’s Tier-2+ users Success Factor Challenges WhatsApp like booking experience through integration with IndusOS Consistency of user experience in low- cost phones User Base Vernacular Reach 40 Mn+ (MAU) 25% PayTM users interact in regional language Success Factor Challenges Multilingual App which supports 11 languages 3rd party extensions and Payment Gateways are still in English User Base Vernacular Reach 160 Mn+ (MAU) 14 Languages – potential to reach 234 Mn Indians Success Factor Challenges Good quality vernacular experience on mobile device Monitoring content- (insensitive, fake) in different languages User Base Vernacular Reach 100 Mn* (MAU) Content in 10+ languages – ~60% of content consumed is Hindi (~20% in other vernacular) Success Factor Challenges Native vernacular users acquired through Jio’s netwrok Fragmented labels, onboarding Case Studies Some have already taken the first steps in the vernacular route and others will follow – Vernacular opportunity isn’t in the future, it’s NOW 32 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  33. Authors Anil Kumaris Founder of Redseer Consulting. He has been part of engagements in Internet, Private Equity, Retail CPG and Healthcare amongothers. He specializes in growthand investment strategies. Anil is abeliever of the data-driven approach in solving business problems. His consulting approachleverages Data IP,sector expertise and the client’s core hypothesis. He holds B.Techfrom IIT-Delhi. Anil Kumar Founder and CEO anil@redseer.com Abhishek heads the Consulting and Diligence practice atRedseer for the Indian Market. He brings in ~13 years of strategy and consulting experience in Technology, Telecom, Insurance /Insure-tech, Automotive (Mobility), and consumer Internet Sectors, both in Indian as well as Global markets. He is aSP Jain Alumnus Abhishek Chauhan Associate Partner abhishek@redseerconsulting.com Ujjwalis an Associate Director atRedSeer. He is abigbeliever in the power of technology to disrupt the status quo. He specializes in due-diligences especially in the consumer internet space. Prior to joiningRedSeer, Ujjwalco-founded and exited a healthcare start-up. He canbe can reached at ujjwal@ redseerconsulting.com. He is an IITDelhi alumnus Ujjwal Chaudhry Director ujjwal@redseerconsulting.com Raunakis a Senior Consultant withRedSeer and has 5+ years of experience in management consulting and corporate strategy. He has extensive experience workingacross agamutof strategic engagements including due diligence, business growthstrategy, market entry and process transformation across infrastructure, government, education and energy domains. He is an ISB Hyderabad alumnus. Raunak Sinha SeniorConsultant 33 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
  34. Authors Rishik is an Associate Consultant withRedSeer and has 3+ years of experience working across Consumer Internet, Media, O&G and BFSI in Data Science, Sales, Marketing, Research and Strategy roles. He is an IIMRanchi alumnus Rishik Debnath Associate Consultant Abhijit is an Associate Consultant withRedSeer and has 3 years of experience workingacross Consumer Electronics, Automobiles, FMCG and BPM in CorporateFinance and Marketing Strategy roles. He is an IIMLucknowalumnus Abhijit Routray Associate Consultant Eshan has conducted extensive research for market sizing and competitive bench marking across multiple verticals in the consumer internet sector, he has developed a deep understanding of the supply chain and logistics. He can be reached at eshan@redseer.com He is aBIT alumnus Eshan Tyagi Business Analyst Shashank is a Business Analyst having experience e-commerce, e-logistics and has expertise in in due diligence acrossthe consumer internet verticals. He has worked on strategy engagements with many leading start-ups and VC firms. He can be reached on shashanks@redseerconsulting.com He is aBITSGoa alumnus Shashank Subramaniam Business Analyst 34 Vernacular is NOW, not the future
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