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A	
  Presenta*on	
  from	
  The	
  NewMR	
  Behaviour	
  
Economics	
  Event	
  
19	
  April	
  2012	
  
PROVING	
  BJORK	
  WRONG:	
  How	
  To	
  Take	
  Behavioural	
  
Science	
  from	
  Anecdote	
  to	
  AcCon	
  
	
  
Tom	
  Ewing,	
  BrainJuicer 	
  	
  
Event	
  sponsored	
  by	
  Greenbook	
  
All	
  copyright	
  owned	
  by	
  The	
  Future	
  Place	
  and	
  the	
  presenters	
  of	
  the	
  material	
  
For	
  more	
  informa>on	
  about	
  Greenbook	
  visit	
  www.greenbookblog.org	
  
For	
  more	
  informa>on	
  about	
  NewMR	
  events	
  visit	
  newmr.org	
  
2
Proving Bjork Wrong
Tom Ewing
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
3	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
4	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
5	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
6	
  
System	
  1	
  and	
  System	
  2	
  Thinking	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
7	
  
System	
  1	
  decision-­‐making	
  is	
  faster	
  and	
  less	
  efforGul	
  
System 2
System 1
50 bit/sec
11,000,000 bit/sec
Zimmerman, M. (1989) "The Nervous System in the
Context of Information Theory".
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
8	
  
Can	
  you	
  tell	
  what	
  it	
  is	
  in	
  the	
  picture?	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
9	
  
“A	
  bat	
  and	
  a	
  ball	
  cost	
  $1.10	
  in	
  total.	
  
The	
  bat	
  costs	
  $1	
  more	
  than	
  the	
  ball.	
  
How	
  much	
  does	
  the	
  ball	
  cost?”	
  
“People	
  are	
  not	
  accustomed	
  to	
  thinking	
  hard,	
  and	
  are	
  oQen	
  content	
  to	
  
trust	
  a	
  plausible	
  judgement	
  that	
  quickly	
  comes	
  to	
  mind.”	
  	
  
	
  
Daniel	
  	
  
Kahneman,	
  	
  
Nobel	
  Prize	
  	
  
Winner	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
10	
  
Human	
  behaviour	
  driven	
  by	
  two	
  decision-­‐making	
  Systems,	
  
1	
  &	
  2	
  …	
  
Slow	
  
Explicit	
  
Analy*cal	
  
EfforGul	
  
Cogni*ve	
  
Proposi*onal	
  
Conscious	
  
System	
  2	
  
Fast	
  
Implicit	
  
Experien*al	
  
Ins*nc*ve	
  
Emo*onal	
  
Metaphoric	
  	
  
Unconscious	
  
System	
  1	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
11
2
1
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
DECISION
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
13	
  
Environmental/Architectural	
  Factors	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
14	
  
5:1 1:2
A. North, D. Hargreaves and J. McKendrick (1997)
Sales Sales
Environmental/Architectural	
  Factors	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan	
  11	
   15	
  
Environmental/Architectural	
  Factors:	
  Surroundings	
  
3.54
1.09
Holland et
al (2005)
Ave. number of
times cleared
crumbs from table
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
16	
  
Environmental/Architectural	
  Factors:	
  Choice	
  Architecture	
  
4
28
17
12
100 98 100 100 100 100
86
D
enm
arkN
etherlands
U
K
G
erm
any
A
ustria
B
elgium
France
H
ungary
Poland
Portugal
Sw
eden
% of drivers donating organs
Johnson & Goldstein (2003)
Tick the box if you want to participate
in the organ donor programme
Tick the box if you don’t want to participate
in the organ donor programme
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan	
  11	
   17	
  
Social	
  factors	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
18	
  
Social	
  Factors	
  
Bateson et al, 2006
People	
  pay	
  
2.76	
  *mes	
  
more	
  on	
  
average	
  
when	
  eyes	
  
are	
  present	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan	
  11	
   19	
  
Social	
  Factors:	
  Copying/Mimicry	
  	
  
Seated accomplices
eating pretzels
Walking accomplices
eating pretzels
No accomplice
eating pretzels
1/12 1/7 1/6
Proportion of
passengers buying
pretzels:
Herrmann et al, 2011
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan	
  11	
   20	
  
Social	
  Factors:	
  Commitment	
  
Burn & Oskamp (1986)
10
5
18
16
12
16
13
19
212118
1816
2
22
2
4
1 2 3 4 5 6
% of homes
(which claimed
not to recycle)
recycling after
each treatment
Week
Signed	
  declara*on	
  of	
  intent	
  
Communica*on	
  
No	
  treatment	
  (control)	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
21	
  
Personal	
  Factors	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan	
  11	
   22	
  
Personal	
  Factors:	
  Diversifica*on	
  
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
Among those selecting
on the actual day of
viewing 42% 47% 44%
Among those selecting
in advance on Day 1 44% 63% 71%
Read et al (1999)
% of ‘Highbrow films’
selected
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan	
  11	
   23	
  
Personal	
  Factors:	
  Iner*a	
  &	
  Consump*on	
  Momentum	
  
Cheema & Soman (2008)
34
6666
45
52
55 55 56
60
60606060
49
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Cumulative
number of
chocolates
eaten
Days from receipt
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
24	
  
Personal	
  Factors:	
  Cogni*ve	
  Load	
  
Case	
  number	
  across	
  the	
  day	
  
Propor*on	
  of	
  favourable	
  decisions	
  
Danziger et al, 2011
“The	
  performance	
  of	
  
more	
  efforGul	
  tasks	
  
will	
  collapse	
  under	
  
cogni*ve	
  load.”	
  	
  
	
  
Daniel	
  	
  
Kahneman,	
  	
  
Nobel	
  Prize	
  	
  
Winner	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
DECISION
Poli*cal,	
  Economic	
  
Influences	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  Surroundings	
  
	
  Priming	
  
	
  	
  	
  Framing	
  
	
  Accessibility	
  
Defaults	
  
Cultural	
  
Influences	
  
Copying	
  
	
  	
  Social	
  Proof	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Consistency	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Reciprocity	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Social	
  
	
  Norms	
  
0 01234567891 01234567892 01234567893 01234567894 01234567895 01234567896 01234567897 01234567898 01234567899 01234567890 0
Knowledge	
  /Educa*onal	
  
Influences	
  
EmoJon	
  
Visceral	
  States	
  
Habits	
  
CogniJve	
  States	
  
	
  
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
DECISION
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
27
Thank You
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Q & A
Sue York
NewMR
Tom Ewing
BrainJuicer
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Tom Ewing
Email	
  Tom	
  at	
  tom.ewing@brainjuicer.com	
  
Read	
  Tom’s	
  blog	
  @	
  hFp://brianandthejuice.wordpress.com	
  
Read	
  Tom’s	
  other	
  blog	
  @	
  hFp://blackbeardblog.tumblr.com	
  
Follow	
  Tom’s	
  tweets	
  at	
  @	
  hFp://twiFer.com/tomewing	
  	
  
A	
  Presenta*on	
  from	
  The	
  NewMR	
  Behaviour	
  
Economics	
  Event	
  
19	
  April	
  2012	
  
PROVING	
  BJORK	
  WRONG:	
  How	
  To	
  Take	
  Behavioural	
  
Science	
  from	
  Anecdote	
  to	
  AcCon	
  
	
  
Tom	
  Ewing,	
  BrainJuicer 	
  	
  
Event	
  sponsored	
  by	
  Greenbook	
  
All	
  copyright	
  owned	
  by	
  The	
  Future	
  Place	
  and	
  the	
  presenters	
  of	
  the	
  material	
  
For	
  more	
  informa>on	
  about	
  Greenbook	
  visit	
  www.greenbookblog.org	
  
For	
  more	
  informa>on	
  about	
  NewMR	
  events	
  visit	
  newmr.org	
  

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Tom ewing behavioural economics - 2012

  • 1. A  Presenta*on  from  The  NewMR  Behaviour   Economics  Event   19  April  2012   PROVING  BJORK  WRONG:  How  To  Take  Behavioural   Science  from  Anecdote  to  AcCon     Tom  Ewing,  BrainJuicer     Event  sponsored  by  Greenbook   All  copyright  owned  by  The  Future  Place  and  the  presenters  of  the  material   For  more  informa>on  about  Greenbook  visit  www.greenbookblog.org   For  more  informa>on  about  NewMR  events  visit  newmr.org  
  • 2. 2 Proving Bjork Wrong Tom Ewing NewMR Behavioural Economics Event Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 3. 3   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 4. 4   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 5. 5   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 6. 6   System  1  and  System  2  Thinking   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 7. 7   System  1  decision-­‐making  is  faster  and  less  efforGul   System 2 System 1 50 bit/sec 11,000,000 bit/sec Zimmerman, M. (1989) "The Nervous System in the Context of Information Theory". Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 8. 8   Can  you  tell  what  it  is  in  the  picture?   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 9. 9   “A  bat  and  a  ball  cost  $1.10  in  total.   The  bat  costs  $1  more  than  the  ball.   How  much  does  the  ball  cost?”   “People  are  not  accustomed  to  thinking  hard,  and  are  oQen  content  to   trust  a  plausible  judgement  that  quickly  comes  to  mind.”       Daniel     Kahneman,     Nobel  Prize     Winner   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 10. 10   Human  behaviour  driven  by  two  decision-­‐making  Systems,   1  &  2  …   Slow   Explicit   Analy*cal   EfforGul   Cogni*ve   Proposi*onal   Conscious   System  2   Fast   Implicit   Experien*al   Ins*nc*ve   Emo*onal   Metaphoric     Unconscious   System  1   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 11. 11 2 1 Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 12. DECISION Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 13. 13   Environmental/Architectural  Factors   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 14. 14   5:1 1:2 A. North, D. Hargreaves and J. McKendrick (1997) Sales Sales Environmental/Architectural  Factors   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 15. Jan  11   15   Environmental/Architectural  Factors:  Surroundings   3.54 1.09 Holland et al (2005) Ave. number of times cleared crumbs from table Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 16. 16   Environmental/Architectural  Factors:  Choice  Architecture   4 28 17 12 100 98 100 100 100 100 86 D enm arkN etherlands U K G erm any A ustria B elgium France H ungary Poland Portugal Sw eden % of drivers donating organs Johnson & Goldstein (2003) Tick the box if you want to participate in the organ donor programme Tick the box if you don’t want to participate in the organ donor programme Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 17. Jan  11   17   Social  factors   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 18. 18   Social  Factors   Bateson et al, 2006 People  pay   2.76  *mes   more  on   average   when  eyes   are  present   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 19. Jan  11   19   Social  Factors:  Copying/Mimicry     Seated accomplices eating pretzels Walking accomplices eating pretzels No accomplice eating pretzels 1/12 1/7 1/6 Proportion of passengers buying pretzels: Herrmann et al, 2011 Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 20. Jan  11   20   Social  Factors:  Commitment   Burn & Oskamp (1986) 10 5 18 16 12 16 13 19 212118 1816 2 22 2 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 % of homes (which claimed not to recycle) recycling after each treatment Week Signed  declara*on  of  intent   Communica*on   No  treatment  (control)   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 21. 21   Personal  Factors   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 22. Jan  11   22   Personal  Factors:  Diversifica*on   Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Among those selecting on the actual day of viewing 42% 47% 44% Among those selecting in advance on Day 1 44% 63% 71% Read et al (1999) % of ‘Highbrow films’ selected Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 23. Jan  11   23   Personal  Factors:  Iner*a  &  Consump*on  Momentum   Cheema & Soman (2008) 34 6666 45 52 55 55 56 60 60606060 49 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Cumulative number of chocolates eaten Days from receipt Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 24. 24   Personal  Factors:  Cogni*ve  Load   Case  number  across  the  day   Propor*on  of  favourable  decisions   Danziger et al, 2011 “The  performance  of   more  efforGul  tasks   will  collapse  under   cogni*ve  load.”       Daniel     Kahneman,     Nobel  Prize     Winner   Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 25. DECISION Poli*cal,  Economic   Influences          Surroundings    Priming        Framing    Accessibility   Defaults   Cultural   Influences   Copying      Social  Proof              Consistency                  Reciprocity                              Social    Norms   0 01234567891 01234567892 01234567893 01234567894 01234567895 01234567896 01234567897 01234567898 01234567899 01234567890 0 Knowledge  /Educa*onal   Influences   EmoJon   Visceral  States   Habits   CogniJve  States     Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 26. DECISION Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 27. 27 Thank You Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
  • 28. Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2 Q & A Sue York NewMR Tom Ewing BrainJuicer
  • 29. Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2 Tom Ewing Email  Tom  at  tom.ewing@brainjuicer.com   Read  Tom’s  blog  @  hFp://brianandthejuice.wordpress.com   Read  Tom’s  other  blog  @  hFp://blackbeardblog.tumblr.com   Follow  Tom’s  tweets  at  @  hFp://twiFer.com/tomewing    
  • 30. A  Presenta*on  from  The  NewMR  Behaviour   Economics  Event   19  April  2012   PROVING  BJORK  WRONG:  How  To  Take  Behavioural   Science  from  Anecdote  to  AcCon     Tom  Ewing,  BrainJuicer     Event  sponsored  by  Greenbook   All  copyright  owned  by  The  Future  Place  and  the  presenters  of  the  material   For  more  informa>on  about  Greenbook  visit  www.greenbookblog.org   For  more  informa>on  about  NewMR  events  visit  newmr.org