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Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Finding	
  and	
  
Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  
Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  
Working	
  with	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  
Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter	
  
	
  
	
  
May	
  2016	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Series	
  Schedule	
  
•  An	
  Introduc5on	
  and	
  Overview	
  -­‐	
  Feb	
  23	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  Qualita5ve	
  Informa5on	
  –	
  Apr	
  5	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  	
  -­‐	
  May	
  26	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  mul5ple	
  streams	
  &	
  big	
  data	
  -­‐	
  July	
  5	
  	
  
•  U5lizing	
  visualiza5on	
  –	
  Sep	
  13	
  	
  
•  Presen5ng	
  the	
  story	
  -­‐	
  Nov	
  8	
  	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Agenda	
  
•  Brief	
  recap	
  
•  Prepara5on	
  
•  Main	
  story	
  
•  5Cs	
  and	
  finding	
  insight	
  
•  Communica5ng	
  quan5ta5ve	
  messages	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
The	
  Frameworks	
  Approach	
  
1.  Define	
  and	
  frame	
  the	
  problem	
  
–  A	
  problem	
  fully	
  defined	
  is	
  a	
  problem	
  half	
  solved	
  
2.  Establish	
  what	
  is	
  already	
  known	
  
–  Find	
  out	
  what	
  is	
  believed	
  and	
  what	
  the	
  expecta5ons	
  are	
  
3.  Organise	
  the	
  data	
  to	
  be	
  analysed	
  
–  Systema5c	
  checking	
  and	
  structural	
  procedures	
  
4.  Apply	
  systema5c	
  analysis	
  processes	
  
5.  Extract	
  and	
  create	
  the	
  story	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Gathering,	
  Checking	
  &	
  Transforming	
  
Start	
  the	
  process	
  during	
  fieldwork	
  
Checks	
  include:	
  
–  Look	
  at	
  the	
  open-­‐ended	
  comments	
  
–  Check	
  for	
  problems,	
  e.g.	
  ques5ons	
  not	
  answered,	
  
breaks	
  without	
  answers,	
  lots	
  of	
  DKs	
  or	
  NAs	
  
–  Speeders,	
  straight-­‐liners,	
  and	
  other	
  queries	
  
–  Common	
  sense,	
  e.g.	
  do	
  people	
  prefer	
  the	
  expected	
  
op5ons,	
  do	
  most	
  people	
  have	
  fewer	
  than	
  5	
  children	
  
etc	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Is	
  My	
  Data	
  Right?	
  
We	
  see	
  pa^erns,	
  even	
  
when	
  they	
  are	
  not	
  there.	
  
	
  
Most	
  of	
  the	
  5me,	
  when	
  
you	
  find	
  something	
  ‘very	
  
interes5ng’	
  in	
  the	
  data	
  it	
  
will	
  be	
  an	
  error.	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Spurious	
  Correla-ons	
  
h^p://www.tylervigen.com/	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
ESOMAR	
  Pricing	
  Study	
  
•  Global	
  Study	
  every	
  2	
  years	
  
•  Over	
  600	
  agency	
  responses	
  
•  Bidding	
  on	
  7	
  projects	
  +	
  tariffs	
  
– 25	
  separate	
  cost	
  op5ons	
  
•  Over	
  120	
  countries,	
  over	
  60	
  currencies	
  
•  Analysis	
  currently	
  taking	
  place	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
ESOMAR	
  Pricing	
  Study	
  –	
  Check	
  and	
  Transform	
  
•  Convert	
  66	
  currencies	
  into	
  USD	
  $	
  
•  Check	
  open-­‐ended	
  comments	
  ‘cost	
  per	
  group’,	
  
‘does	
  not	
  include	
  presenta0on’,	
  etc	
  
•  Check	
  if	
  the	
  quotes	
  are	
  plausible:	
  
– $1.5	
  million	
  for	
  a	
  concept	
  test,	
  $50	
  for	
  a	
  tracking	
  
study,	
  etc	
  
– ESOMAR	
  check	
  all	
  queries	
  (IDs	
  anonymous	
  to	
  me)	
  
Shout	
  Out:	
  Bryel	
  Parnell	
  –	
  Berry	
  	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Are	
  Bids	
  Plausible?	
  
P1A	
   P1B	
   P1C	
  
Mean	
   17,597	
   20,210	
   13,528	
  
Median	
   12,450	
   14,224	
   9,800	
  
Min	
   2,200	
   2,760	
   882	
  
Max	
   114,769	
   126,830	
   126,150	
  
Count	
   356	
   400	
   309	
  
Random	
  numbers	
  in	
  table	
  
Checking	
  &	
  Transforming	
  
is	
  part	
  of	
  Story	
  Finding	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Transforming	
  the	
  Data	
  
Do	
  bases	
  need	
  adjus5ng?	
  	
  
– ‘Do	
  you	
  drive	
  to	
  work?’,	
  base	
  might	
  need	
  to	
  be	
  
Drivers,	
  or	
  Drivers	
  who	
  Work.	
  
Addi5onal	
  groupings	
  (e.g.	
  top	
  2	
  boxes,	
  
Promoter,	
  Detractor,	
  NPS	
  etc)	
  
Standardising,	
  indexing,	
  or	
  otherwise	
  re-­‐shaping	
  
the	
  data	
  for	
  analysis	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Find	
  the	
  Total	
  Picture	
  First	
  
Then	
  the	
  relevant	
  detail	
  
•  Look	
  at	
  the	
  Total	
  Column	
  
•  Look	
  for	
  big	
  numbers	
  and	
  big	
  pa^erns	
  
•  What	
  is	
  the	
  big	
  picture?	
  
•  This	
  will	
  frame	
  the	
  detail	
  
In	
  the	
  context	
  of	
  the	
  Business	
  Ques5on	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Where	
  does	
  the	
  best	
  MR	
  come	
  from?	
  
Column	
  %	
   Which	
  of	
  the	
  following	
  best	
  describes	
  you?	
   Countries	
  Merged	
  
Total	
   Research	
  or	
  
Consultancy	
  
Supplier	
  
Supplier	
  to	
  the	
  
research	
  industry	
  
Research	
  Buyer/
User	
  
Academic	
  +	
  Other	
   English	
  Speaking	
   Non-­‐English	
  
Speaking	
  
UK	
   63%	
   61%	
   60%	
   92%	
   40%	
   66%	
   60%	
  
USA	
   51%	
   52%	
   50%	
   46%	
   60%	
   52%	
   50%	
  
Germany	
   18%	
   13%	
   30%	
   15%	
   60%	
   16%	
   21%	
  
Australia	
   15%	
   14%	
   15%	
   15%	
   20%	
   16%	
   12%	
  
Canada	
   11%	
   8%	
   20%	
   0%	
   40%	
   9%	
   14%	
  
France	
   7%	
   7%	
   10%	
   8%	
   0%	
   7%	
   7%	
  
Japan	
   5%	
   3%	
   15%	
   0%	
   0%	
   3%	
   7%	
  
Brazil	
   3%	
   3%	
   5%	
   0%	
   0%	
   3%	
   2%	
  
China	
   2%	
   1%	
   5%	
   0%	
   0%	
   3%	
   0%	
  
Italy	
   2%	
   1%	
   5%	
   0%	
   0%	
   0%	
   5%	
  
Other	
   8%	
   10%	
   10%	
   0%	
   0%	
   9%	
   7%	
  
None	
  of	
  these	
   11%	
   15%	
   5%	
   0%	
   0%	
   9%	
   14%	
  
Column	
  n	
   109	
   71	
   20	
   13	
   5	
   67	
   42	
  
The	
  wrong	
  approach	
  to	
  star5ng	
  analysis	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Where	
  does	
  the	
  best	
  MR	
  come	
  from?	
  
Column	
  %	
   Which	
  of	
  the	
  following	
  best	
  describes	
  you?	
   Countries	
  Merged	
  
Total	
   Research	
  or	
  
Consultancy	
  
Supplier	
  
Supplier	
  to	
  the	
  
research	
  industry	
  
Research	
  Buyer/
User	
  
Academic	
  +	
  Other	
   English	
  Speaking	
   Non-­‐English	
  
Speaking	
  
UK	
   63%	
   61%	
   60%	
   92%	
   40%	
   66%	
   60%	
  
USA	
   51%	
   52%	
   50%	
   46%	
   60%	
   52%	
   50%	
  
Germany	
   18%	
   13%	
   30%	
   15%	
   60%	
   16%	
   21%	
  
Australia	
   15%	
   14%	
   15%	
   15%	
   20%	
   16%	
   12%	
  
Canada	
   11%	
   8%	
   20%	
   0%	
   40%	
   9%	
   14%	
  
France	
   7%	
   7%	
   10%	
   8%	
   0%	
   7%	
   7%	
  
Japan	
   5%	
   3%	
   15%	
   0%	
   0%	
   3%	
   7%	
  
Brazil	
   3%	
   3%	
   5%	
   0%	
   0%	
   3%	
   2%	
  
China	
   2%	
   1%	
   5%	
   0%	
   0%	
   3%	
   0%	
  
Italy	
   2%	
   1%	
   5%	
   0%	
   0%	
   0%	
   5%	
  
Other	
   8%	
   10%	
   10%	
   0%	
   0%	
   9%	
   7%	
  
None	
  of	
  these	
   11%	
   15%	
   5%	
   0%	
   0%	
   9%	
   14%	
  
Column	
  n	
   109	
   71	
   20	
   13	
   5	
   67	
   42	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
0%	
  
10%	
  
20%	
  
30%	
  
40%	
  
50%	
  
60%	
  
70%	
  
Which	
  Country	
  Produces	
  the	
  Best	
  MR?	
  
The	
  Big	
  Message	
  
Big	
  story	
  
Ques-ons	
  
Why	
  are	
  the	
  UK	
  &	
  USA	
  so	
  high/different?	
  
Is	
  this	
  true	
  for	
  everybody?	
  
What	
  are	
  the	
  implica5ons	
  of	
  this?	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Use	
  the	
  Business	
  Ques-on	
  as	
  a	
  Lens	
  
The	
  same	
  data	
  will	
  deliver	
  different	
  stories,	
  based	
  
on	
  different	
  business	
  ques5ons	
  
This	
  is	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  reasons	
  that	
  industry	
  reports	
  have	
  
a	
  less	
  focused	
  story	
  
–  They	
  have	
  many	
  readers,	
  with	
  different	
  needs	
  and	
  
ques5ons	
  
The	
  business	
  ques5on	
  defines	
  what	
  is	
  in,	
  what	
  is	
  
out,	
  and	
  where	
  the	
  magnifica5on	
  should	
  be	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Find	
  the	
  Relevant	
  Detail	
  
Once	
  you	
  have	
  the	
  total	
  story:	
  
– Are	
  there	
  people	
  who	
  have	
  a	
  different	
  story	
  
(different	
  from	
  the	
  main	
  story)?	
  
– Who	
  are	
  these	
  people?	
  
– What	
  is	
  their	
  story?	
  
– Why	
  are	
  they	
  different?	
  
– What	
  are	
  the	
  business	
  implica5ons	
  of	
  this	
  
difference	
  (these	
  differences)?	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Different	
  Perspec-ves	
  
ASK:	
  
The	
  alterna0ve	
  
explana0ons	
  for	
  this	
  
data	
  are?	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Findings	
  Need	
  a	
  Comparator	
  
RFID	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Finding	
  and	
  communica-ng	
  
the	
  story	
  in	
  health	
  data	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Bad	
  news	
  for	
  men	
  in	
  Eastern	
  Europe	
  
Eurostat	
  -­‐	
  h^p://goo.gl/r2q526	
  
Amenable	
  Deaths	
  Per	
  100000	
  of	
  popula5on	
  -­‐	
  2012	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
114,740	
  Avoidable	
  Deaths	
  	
  
in	
  England	
  and	
  Wales	
  in	
  2013	
  
114,740	
  deaths	
  out	
  of	
  506,790	
  (nearly	
  25%)	
  were	
  
avoidable	
  in	
  2013	
  in	
  England	
  &	
  Wales.	
  According	
  to	
  
the	
  UK	
  Office	
  for	
  Na5onal	
  Sta5s5cs:	
  h^p://goo.gl/
oJYMgo	
  	
  
	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
USA	
  and	
  Smoking	
  
Leading	
  cause	
  preventable	
  deaths	
  
h^p://www.cdc.gov/healthreport/publica5ons/compendium.pdf	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
The	
  Tenuous	
  Link	
  Between	
  Finding	
  
the	
  Story	
  and	
  Telling	
  the	
  Story	
  
In	
  finding	
  the	
  story	
  we	
  have	
  mul5ple	
  data	
  sources	
  
We	
  have	
  differing	
  degrees	
  of	
  confidence	
  in	
  those	
  sources	
  
–  A	
  conjoint	
  study	
  with	
  consul5ng	
  surgeons	
  might	
  be	
  our	
  
best	
  source	
  for	
  finding	
  the	
  story	
  
The	
  best	
  way	
  to	
  convey	
  the	
  story	
  does	
  not	
  have	
  to	
  rest	
  
on	
  the	
  ‘best’	
  data	
  
–  A	
  vox	
  pop	
  video	
  with	
  a	
  pa5ent	
  might	
  be	
  a	
  poor	
  way	
  to	
  find	
  
the	
  story,	
  but	
  it	
  can	
  be	
  a	
  great	
  way	
  to	
  tell	
  the	
  story	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Visualiza-on	
  for	
  Finding	
  ≠	
  Telling	
  
Seth	
  Godin	
  Wikipedia	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
5	
  Cs	
  of	
  Insight	
  
•  Connec5ons	
  
•  Coincidences	
  
•  Curiosi5es	
  
•  Contradic5ons	
  
•  Crea5ve	
  jump	
  
}	
  Build	
  on	
  the	
  	
  
current	
  picture	
  
Rethink	
  an	
  assump5on	
  
Discard	
  an	
  assump5on	
  
HT,	
  John	
  Storey,	
  Abbo^	
  EPD	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Connec-ons	
  
•  Charles	
  Darwin	
  and	
  Evolu5on	
  
•  Aware	
  of	
  how	
  farmers	
  bred	
  different	
  sizes	
  and	
  shapes	
  
of	
  cows,	
  horses,	
  pigs	
  etc	
  –	
  selec5ve	
  breeding	
  
•  Visited	
  Galapagos	
  and	
  saw	
  varie5es	
  of	
  sizes/shapes	
  
•  Read	
  Malthus’	
  essay	
  on	
  popula5on	
  growth	
  and	
  
compe55on	
  for	
  resources	
  
•  Made	
  the	
  connec5on	
  to	
  realise	
  that	
  compe55on	
  for	
  
resources	
  was	
  the	
  hand	
  behind	
  the	
  selec5ve	
  breeding	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Connec-ons	
  
U&A	
  for	
  a	
  brand	
  shows	
  strong	
  associa5on	
  
with	
  “Hospitals”	
  
What	
  do	
  we	
  know	
  about	
  hospitals,	
  smells	
  and	
  
implica5ons	
  for	
  this	
  type	
  of	
  product	
  
– Cleaning	
  –	
  strong,	
  clean,	
  but	
  not	
  homely	
  
– Food	
  –	
  not	
  so	
  good	
  
– Technology	
  –	
  good	
  but	
  cold	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Coincidences	
  
•  US	
  doctor	
  Michael	
  Go^lieb	
  
•  31	
  year	
  old	
  pa5ent,	
  unusual	
  symptoms,	
  auto-­‐
immune	
  disorder.	
  Being	
  gay	
  irrelevant.	
  
•  2	
  more	
  pa5ents,	
  similar	
  unusual	
  symptoms.	
  
Coincidence	
  –	
  they	
  were	
  also	
  gay.	
  
•  Go^lieb	
  explored	
  the	
  coincidence	
  (with	
  a	
  
prepared	
  mind)	
  and	
  found	
  AIDS	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Coincidences	
  
•  Different	
  studies	
  are	
  showing	
  that	
  over	
  55s	
  	
  
are	
  more	
  likely	
  to	
  do	
  a	
  variety	
  of	
  online	
  ac5vi5es	
  
on	
  Tablets	
  –	
  compared	
  to	
  younger	
  age	
  groups	
  
•  Ques5on:	
  Are	
  the	
  older	
  group	
  turning	
  away	
  from	
  
PCs	
  and	
  perhaps	
  not	
  turning	
  to	
  Smartphones?	
  
•  Explore	
  whether	
  this	
  is	
  true	
  and	
  what	
  the	
  
implica5ons	
  are	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Curiosi-es	
  
•  Bri5sh	
  research	
  Alexander	
  Flemming	
  
•  Researching	
  Staphylococcus	
  
•  Went	
  on	
  holiday	
  in	
  August,	
  leaving	
  petri	
  dishes	
  
with	
  the	
  bacteria	
  
•  On	
  return,	
  one	
  had	
  developed	
  a	
  mould	
  and	
  near	
  
the	
  mould	
  the	
  bacteria	
  had	
  died	
  
•  This	
  curiosity,	
  connected	
  with	
  a	
  prepared	
  mind,	
  
led	
  to	
  penicillin	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Curiosi-es	
  
•  Researching	
  a	
  new	
  brand	
  of	
  strong,	
  dark	
  
chocolate	
  
•  Parents	
  of	
  small	
  children	
  over-­‐index	
  on	
  liking	
  
it.	
  In	
  open-­‐ends,	
  one	
  par5cipant	
  men5ons	
  
buying	
  it	
  because	
  her	
  children	
  don’t	
  like	
  it	
  
•  Hmm,	
  is	
  this	
  an	
  insight,	
  let’s	
  dig	
  deeper	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Contradic-ons	
  
•  19th	
  Century	
  London,	
  John	
  Snow	
  is	
  	
  
inves5ga5ng	
  cholera	
  
•  Predominant	
  theory	
  =	
  cholera	
  is	
  airborne	
  
•  But!	
  He	
  looks	
  at	
  corpses.	
  The	
  lungs	
  look	
  good,	
  
but	
  their	
  diges5ve	
  system	
  looked	
  damaged	
  
CONTRADICTION	
  
•  He	
  looked	
  for	
  inges5on	
  routes	
  and	
  discovered	
  
cholera	
  was	
  spread	
  via	
  drinking	
  water	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Contradic-ons	
  
•  Client	
  has	
  a	
  product	
  which	
  is	
  liked	
  by	
  children,	
  
but	
  is	
  not	
  successful	
  –	
  they	
  believe	
  parents	
  are	
  
not	
  buying	
  it	
  
•  Research	
  brief,	
  find	
  out	
  how	
  to	
  persuade	
  more	
  
parents	
  to	
  buy	
  it	
  for	
  their	
  children	
  
•  But,	
  looking	
  in	
  trash	
  cans	
  finds	
  lots	
  of	
  uneaten	
  
product	
  –	
  CONTRADICTION	
  many	
  children	
  do	
  not	
  
actually	
  like	
  it	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Crea-ve	
  Jump	
  
4	
  straight	
  lines	
  
Not	
  leaving	
  the	
  paper	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Crea-ve	
  Jump	
  
4	
  straight	
  lines	
  
Not	
  leaving	
  the	
  paper	
  
Outside	
  the	
  box	
  -­‐	
  really	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Crea-ve	
  Jump	
  
•  When	
  people	
  use	
  it	
  they	
  love	
  it	
  
– Make	
  it	
  free	
  and	
  charge	
  for	
  the	
  refills	
  
•  These	
  candles	
  are	
  too	
  nice	
  to	
  burn	
  (use)	
  
– See	
  them	
  as	
  giws	
  not	
  consumables	
  
•  Growth	
  in	
  people	
  wan5ng	
  to	
  split	
  bills	
  
– App	
  payment	
  designed	
  to	
  help	
  diners	
  and	
  
restaurants	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Example	
  from	
  GRIT	
  2016	
  
Sneak	
  Peek	
  
for	
  Japan	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
A	
  Business	
  Ques-on?	
  
Based	
  on	
  the	
  2016	
  GRIT	
  Study	
  
	
  
What	
  advice	
  would	
  I	
  offer	
  the	
  Japanese	
  
Research	
  industry?	
  	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Framework	
  Informa-on	
  
What	
  other	
  data	
  is	
  there?	
  
•  Previous	
  GRIT	
  studies	
  
•  ESOMAR	
  GMR	
  and	
  Prices	
  
studies	
  
•  FocusVision	
  /	
  Tim	
  Macer	
  
studies	
  
•  My	
  own	
  informa5on	
  from	
  
working	
  with	
  JMRX	
  and	
  
clients	
  
What	
  were	
  the	
  predic-ons?	
  
•  Japan	
  would	
  be	
  behind	
  in	
  
adop5ng	
  new	
  research	
  
approaches	
  –	
  several	
  
sources	
  for	
  this	
  predic5on	
  
•  The	
  support	
  for	
  Japanese	
  
research	
  brands	
  would	
  be	
  
mainly	
  from	
  Japan	
  –	
  
Japanese	
  commentator	
  
•  and	
  more	
  …	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
2	
  Elements	
  to	
  the	
  Ques-on	
  
1.  What	
  advice	
  for	
  the	
  Japanese	
  research	
  
industry	
  is	
  same	
  as	
  same	
  as	
  advice	
  for	
  
research	
  industry	
  in	
  general	
  
2.  What	
  advice	
  is	
  specific	
  to	
  the	
  Japanese	
  
research	
  industry	
  
So,	
  the	
  Total	
  Picture	
  is	
  the	
  Global	
  
version	
  of	
  the	
  GRIT	
  Study	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Most	
  Innova-ve	
  Supplier	
  
2016 Global
1	
   Brainjuicer
2	
   Ipsos
3	
   InSites Consulting
4	
   Nielsen
5	
   GFK
6	
   TNS
7	
   Vision Critical
8	
   LRW
9	
   Millward Brown
10	
   Google
22 Intage/インテージ
24 Macromill/マクロミル
Japan # Company Global #
1	
   Intage/インテージ 22	
  
2	
   Macromill/マクロミル 24	
  
3	
   Brainjuicer 1	
  
4	
   Nielsen 4	
  
5	
   Kantar 16	
  
6	
   GMO Research 50+	
  
7	
   Vision Critical 7	
  
8	
   Google 10	
  
9	
   Ipsos 2	
  
10	
   InSites Consulting 3	
  
Base:	
  Global	
  2144,	
  Japan	
  108	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Innova-ve	
  Supplier	
  Story	
  Notes	
  
Total	
  Picture	
  
•  BrainJuicer	
  dominate	
  
•  Leader	
  board	
  a	
  mix	
  of	
  ‘small’	
  
and	
  large	
  companies	
  
•  Leader	
  board	
  rela5vely	
  stable	
  
over	
  last	
  3	
  years	
  
•  But,	
  2	
  Japanese	
  companies	
  
now	
  in	
  the	
  top	
  25	
  
Japan	
  Specific	
  Notes	
  
•  Top	
  2	
  brands	
  both	
  Japanese	
  
–  BrainJuicer	
  global	
  image	
  
strength	
  reaffirmed	
  
•  3	
  of	
  the	
  top	
  ten	
  brands	
  in	
  
Japan	
  are	
  Japanese	
  
•  Almost	
  all	
  the	
  votes	
  for	
  
Macromill	
  and	
  Intage	
  come	
  
from	
  Japan	
  
–  Confirming	
  a	
  predic5on	
  from	
  
Japan	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Is	
  the	
  overall	
  quality	
  of	
  sample	
  going	
  to	
  get	
  beber,	
  
worse	
  or	
  stay	
  the	
  same	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  3	
  years?	
  
27%	
  
38%	
  
25%	
  
11%	
  
0%	
  
10%	
  
20%	
  
30%	
  
40%	
  
50%	
  
60%	
  
70%	
  
80%	
  
Be^er	
   Worse	
   Stay	
  the	
  same	
   Not	
  sure	
  
Global	
  
Japan	
  
Base:	
  Global	
  2144,	
  Japan	
  108	
  
Total	
  Picture	
  
Divided	
  opinion	
  about	
  
future	
  of	
  sample	
  quality	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Japan?	
  
27%	
  
38%	
  
25%	
  
11%	
  8%	
  
69%	
  
15%	
  
7%	
  
0%	
  
10%	
  
20%	
  
30%	
  
40%	
  
50%	
  
60%	
  
70%	
  
80%	
  
Be^er	
   Worse	
   Stay	
  the	
  same	
   Not	
  sure	
  
Global	
  
Japan	
  
Ques5on:	
  Is	
  the	
  overall	
  quality	
  of	
  sample	
  going	
  to	
  get	
  be^er,	
  
worse	
  or	
  stay	
  the	
  same	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  three	
  years?	
  
Base:	
  Global	
  2144,	
  Japan	
  108	
  
Total	
  Picture	
  
Divided	
  opinion	
  about	
  
future	
  of	
  sample	
  quality	
  
Japan	
  Picture	
  
Sample	
  quality	
  going	
  
off	
  a	
  cliff.	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Japan	
  Overall	
  Story	
  &	
  Recommenda-ons	
  
Story	
  
•  Japan	
  is	
  fairly	
  similar	
  to	
  the	
  
Global	
  picture	
  
•  But,	
  Japan	
  is	
  behind	
  Europe	
  
and	
  North	
  America	
  in	
  
adop5on	
  of	
  new	
  technologies	
  
&	
  Automa5on	
  
•  Japan	
  has	
  some	
  strong	
  
domes5c	
  brands	
  –	
  but	
  their	
  
image	
  is	
  largely	
  domes5c	
  
Recommenda-ons	
  
•  In	
  technology/approaches	
  
focus	
  on	
  developing	
  mobile	
  
and	
  online	
  communi5es	
  
•  In	
  automa5on,	
  focus	
  on	
  	
  
Project	
  Design,	
  Survey	
  Design,	
  
Image	
  Processing,	
  and	
  
Repor5ng	
  
•  Japan’s	
  brands	
  need	
  to	
  learn	
  
from	
  BrainJuicer,	
  InSites,	
  and	
  
Vision	
  Cri5cal	
  in	
  terms	
  of	
  
regional	
  and	
  global	
  image	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Good	
  and	
  Bad	
  News	
  
•  There	
  are	
  four	
  typical	
  stories	
  
–  Good	
  news	
  
–  Good	
  news	
  with	
  caveats	
  
–  Bad	
  news	
  with	
  some	
  op5ons	
  
–  Bad	
  news	
  
•  The	
  storytelling	
  for	
  these	
  four	
  cases	
  is	
  different	
  
•  Good	
  news	
  and	
  bad	
  news	
  is	
  defined	
  by	
  what	
  the	
  
client	
  wanted	
  AND	
  what	
  the	
  research	
  finds	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Bad	
  News	
  
•  5	
  stages	
  of	
  grief	
  
–  Anger,	
  Denial,	
  Bargaining,	
  Depression,	
  Acceptance	
  
•  One	
  presenta5on/report	
  rarely	
  tackles	
  all	
  the	
  stages	
  of	
  
bad	
  news	
  
•  ‘Facts’	
  are	
  rarely	
  enough	
  to	
  persuade	
  
–  Emo5ons	
  are	
  the	
  key	
  –	
  a	
  customer	
  video	
  can	
  be	
  more	
  
powerful	
  than	
  any	
  amount	
  of	
  analysis	
  
•  Go	
  back	
  to	
  a	
  point	
  where	
  the	
  expecta5ons	
  match	
  the	
  
findings	
  and	
  build	
  from	
  there	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Communica-ng	
  Stories	
  Found	
  in	
  
Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Minimise	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  numbers	
  in	
  quan5ta5ve	
  
communica5on	
  
Minimise	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  digits	
  in	
  communica5on	
  
Illustrate	
  the	
  general	
  with	
  the	
  personal	
  
What	
  do	
  you	
  want	
  people	
  to:	
  
– Think,	
  Feel,	
  Do?	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Architecture	
  of	
  a	
  Typical	
  Story	
  
•  Elevator	
  Pitch	
  
•  3	
  suppor5ng	
  themes	
  
•  3	
  pieces	
  of	
  evidence	
  for	
  each	
  theme	
  
•  Execu5ve	
  summary,	
  including	
  the	
  elevator	
  pitch	
  
and	
  the	
  three	
  themes	
  
•  All	
  other	
  detail	
  goes	
  in	
  the	
  appendix	
  or	
  sent	
  
separately	
  
HT	
  Mike	
  Sherman	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Schedule	
  
•  An	
  Introduc5on	
  and	
  Overview	
  -­‐	
  Feb	
  23	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  Qualita5ve	
  Informa5on	
  –	
  Apr	
  5	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  	
  -­‐	
  May	
  26	
  	
  
•  Working	
  with	
  mul5ple	
  streams	
  &	
  big	
  data	
  -­‐	
  July	
  5	
  	
  
•  U5lizing	
  visualiza5on	
  –	
  Sep	
  13	
  	
  
•  Presen5ng	
  the	
  story	
  -­‐	
  Nov	
  8	
  	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Thank	
  You!	
  
	
  
	
  
Follow	
  me	
  on	
  Twiber	
  @RayPoynter	
  
	
  
Or	
  sign-­‐up	
  to	
  receive	
  our	
  weekly	
  mailing	
  at	
  	
  
hbp://NewMR.org	
  	
  	
  
Finding	
  and	
  Communica-ng	
  the	
  Story	
  –	
  Lesson	
  3	
  of	
  6	
  –	
  Quan-ta-ve	
  Informa-on	
  
Ray	
  Poynter,	
  2016	
  
Q	
  &	
  A	
  
Ray	
  Poynter	
  
The	
  Future	
  Place	
  

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Finding the Story in Quantitative Information

  • 1. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Finding  and   Communica-ng  the  Story   Lesson  3  of  6   Working  with  Quan-ta-ve   Informa-on   Ray  Poynter       May  2016  
  • 2. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Series  Schedule   •  An  Introduc5on  and  Overview  -­‐  Feb  23     •  Working  with  Qualita5ve  Informa5on  –  Apr  5     •  Working  with  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on    -­‐  May  26     •  Working  with  mul5ple  streams  &  big  data  -­‐  July  5     •  U5lizing  visualiza5on  –  Sep  13     •  Presen5ng  the  story  -­‐  Nov  8    
  • 3. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Agenda   •  Brief  recap   •  Prepara5on   •  Main  story   •  5Cs  and  finding  insight   •  Communica5ng  quan5ta5ve  messages  
  • 4. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   The  Frameworks  Approach   1.  Define  and  frame  the  problem   –  A  problem  fully  defined  is  a  problem  half  solved   2.  Establish  what  is  already  known   –  Find  out  what  is  believed  and  what  the  expecta5ons  are   3.  Organise  the  data  to  be  analysed   –  Systema5c  checking  and  structural  procedures   4.  Apply  systema5c  analysis  processes   5.  Extract  and  create  the  story  
  • 5. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Gathering,  Checking  &  Transforming   Start  the  process  during  fieldwork   Checks  include:   –  Look  at  the  open-­‐ended  comments   –  Check  for  problems,  e.g.  ques5ons  not  answered,   breaks  without  answers,  lots  of  DKs  or  NAs   –  Speeders,  straight-­‐liners,  and  other  queries   –  Common  sense,  e.g.  do  people  prefer  the  expected   op5ons,  do  most  people  have  fewer  than  5  children   etc  
  • 6. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Is  My  Data  Right?   We  see  pa^erns,  even   when  they  are  not  there.     Most  of  the  5me,  when   you  find  something  ‘very   interes5ng’  in  the  data  it   will  be  an  error.  
  • 7. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Spurious  Correla-ons   h^p://www.tylervigen.com/  
  • 8. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   ESOMAR  Pricing  Study   •  Global  Study  every  2  years   •  Over  600  agency  responses   •  Bidding  on  7  projects  +  tariffs   – 25  separate  cost  op5ons   •  Over  120  countries,  over  60  currencies   •  Analysis  currently  taking  place  
  • 9. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   ESOMAR  Pricing  Study  –  Check  and  Transform   •  Convert  66  currencies  into  USD  $   •  Check  open-­‐ended  comments  ‘cost  per  group’,   ‘does  not  include  presenta0on’,  etc   •  Check  if  the  quotes  are  plausible:   – $1.5  million  for  a  concept  test,  $50  for  a  tracking   study,  etc   – ESOMAR  check  all  queries  (IDs  anonymous  to  me)   Shout  Out:  Bryel  Parnell  –  Berry    
  • 10. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Are  Bids  Plausible?   P1A   P1B   P1C   Mean   17,597   20,210   13,528   Median   12,450   14,224   9,800   Min   2,200   2,760   882   Max   114,769   126,830   126,150   Count   356   400   309   Random  numbers  in  table   Checking  &  Transforming   is  part  of  Story  Finding  
  • 11. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Transforming  the  Data   Do  bases  need  adjus5ng?     – ‘Do  you  drive  to  work?’,  base  might  need  to  be   Drivers,  or  Drivers  who  Work.   Addi5onal  groupings  (e.g.  top  2  boxes,   Promoter,  Detractor,  NPS  etc)   Standardising,  indexing,  or  otherwise  re-­‐shaping   the  data  for  analysis  
  • 12. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Find  the  Total  Picture  First   Then  the  relevant  detail   •  Look  at  the  Total  Column   •  Look  for  big  numbers  and  big  pa^erns   •  What  is  the  big  picture?   •  This  will  frame  the  detail   In  the  context  of  the  Business  Ques5on  
  • 13. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Where  does  the  best  MR  come  from?   Column  %   Which  of  the  following  best  describes  you?   Countries  Merged   Total   Research  or   Consultancy   Supplier   Supplier  to  the   research  industry   Research  Buyer/ User   Academic  +  Other   English  Speaking   Non-­‐English   Speaking   UK   63%   61%   60%   92%   40%   66%   60%   USA   51%   52%   50%   46%   60%   52%   50%   Germany   18%   13%   30%   15%   60%   16%   21%   Australia   15%   14%   15%   15%   20%   16%   12%   Canada   11%   8%   20%   0%   40%   9%   14%   France   7%   7%   10%   8%   0%   7%   7%   Japan   5%   3%   15%   0%   0%   3%   7%   Brazil   3%   3%   5%   0%   0%   3%   2%   China   2%   1%   5%   0%   0%   3%   0%   Italy   2%   1%   5%   0%   0%   0%   5%   Other   8%   10%   10%   0%   0%   9%   7%   None  of  these   11%   15%   5%   0%   0%   9%   14%   Column  n   109   71   20   13   5   67   42   The  wrong  approach  to  star5ng  analysis  
  • 14. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Where  does  the  best  MR  come  from?   Column  %   Which  of  the  following  best  describes  you?   Countries  Merged   Total   Research  or   Consultancy   Supplier   Supplier  to  the   research  industry   Research  Buyer/ User   Academic  +  Other   English  Speaking   Non-­‐English   Speaking   UK   63%   61%   60%   92%   40%   66%   60%   USA   51%   52%   50%   46%   60%   52%   50%   Germany   18%   13%   30%   15%   60%   16%   21%   Australia   15%   14%   15%   15%   20%   16%   12%   Canada   11%   8%   20%   0%   40%   9%   14%   France   7%   7%   10%   8%   0%   7%   7%   Japan   5%   3%   15%   0%   0%   3%   7%   Brazil   3%   3%   5%   0%   0%   3%   2%   China   2%   1%   5%   0%   0%   3%   0%   Italy   2%   1%   5%   0%   0%   0%   5%   Other   8%   10%   10%   0%   0%   9%   7%   None  of  these   11%   15%   5%   0%   0%   9%   14%   Column  n   109   71   20   13   5   67   42  
  • 15. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   Which  Country  Produces  the  Best  MR?   The  Big  Message   Big  story   Ques-ons   Why  are  the  UK  &  USA  so  high/different?   Is  this  true  for  everybody?   What  are  the  implica5ons  of  this?  
  • 16. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Use  the  Business  Ques-on  as  a  Lens   The  same  data  will  deliver  different  stories,  based   on  different  business  ques5ons   This  is  one  of  the  reasons  that  industry  reports  have   a  less  focused  story   –  They  have  many  readers,  with  different  needs  and   ques5ons   The  business  ques5on  defines  what  is  in,  what  is   out,  and  where  the  magnifica5on  should  be  
  • 17. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Find  the  Relevant  Detail   Once  you  have  the  total  story:   – Are  there  people  who  have  a  different  story   (different  from  the  main  story)?   – Who  are  these  people?   – What  is  their  story?   – Why  are  they  different?   – What  are  the  business  implica5ons  of  this   difference  (these  differences)?  
  • 18. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Different  Perspec-ves   ASK:   The  alterna0ve   explana0ons  for  this   data  are?  
  • 19. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Findings  Need  a  Comparator   RFID  
  • 20. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Finding  and  communica-ng   the  story  in  health  data  
  • 21. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Bad  news  for  men  in  Eastern  Europe   Eurostat  -­‐  h^p://goo.gl/r2q526   Amenable  Deaths  Per  100000  of  popula5on  -­‐  2012  
  • 22. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   114,740  Avoidable  Deaths     in  England  and  Wales  in  2013   114,740  deaths  out  of  506,790  (nearly  25%)  were   avoidable  in  2013  in  England  &  Wales.  According  to   the  UK  Office  for  Na5onal  Sta5s5cs:  h^p://goo.gl/ oJYMgo      
  • 23. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   USA  and  Smoking   Leading  cause  preventable  deaths   h^p://www.cdc.gov/healthreport/publica5ons/compendium.pdf  
  • 24. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   The  Tenuous  Link  Between  Finding   the  Story  and  Telling  the  Story   In  finding  the  story  we  have  mul5ple  data  sources   We  have  differing  degrees  of  confidence  in  those  sources   –  A  conjoint  study  with  consul5ng  surgeons  might  be  our   best  source  for  finding  the  story   The  best  way  to  convey  the  story  does  not  have  to  rest   on  the  ‘best’  data   –  A  vox  pop  video  with  a  pa5ent  might  be  a  poor  way  to  find   the  story,  but  it  can  be  a  great  way  to  tell  the  story  
  • 25. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Visualiza-on  for  Finding  ≠  Telling   Seth  Godin  Wikipedia  
  • 26. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   5  Cs  of  Insight   •  Connec5ons   •  Coincidences   •  Curiosi5es   •  Contradic5ons   •  Crea5ve  jump   }  Build  on  the     current  picture   Rethink  an  assump5on   Discard  an  assump5on   HT,  John  Storey,  Abbo^  EPD  
  • 27. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Connec-ons   •  Charles  Darwin  and  Evolu5on   •  Aware  of  how  farmers  bred  different  sizes  and  shapes   of  cows,  horses,  pigs  etc  –  selec5ve  breeding   •  Visited  Galapagos  and  saw  varie5es  of  sizes/shapes   •  Read  Malthus’  essay  on  popula5on  growth  and   compe55on  for  resources   •  Made  the  connec5on  to  realise  that  compe55on  for   resources  was  the  hand  behind  the  selec5ve  breeding  
  • 28. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Connec-ons   U&A  for  a  brand  shows  strong  associa5on   with  “Hospitals”   What  do  we  know  about  hospitals,  smells  and   implica5ons  for  this  type  of  product   – Cleaning  –  strong,  clean,  but  not  homely   – Food  –  not  so  good   – Technology  –  good  but  cold  
  • 29. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Coincidences   •  US  doctor  Michael  Go^lieb   •  31  year  old  pa5ent,  unusual  symptoms,  auto-­‐ immune  disorder.  Being  gay  irrelevant.   •  2  more  pa5ents,  similar  unusual  symptoms.   Coincidence  –  they  were  also  gay.   •  Go^lieb  explored  the  coincidence  (with  a   prepared  mind)  and  found  AIDS  
  • 30. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Coincidences   •  Different  studies  are  showing  that  over  55s     are  more  likely  to  do  a  variety  of  online  ac5vi5es   on  Tablets  –  compared  to  younger  age  groups   •  Ques5on:  Are  the  older  group  turning  away  from   PCs  and  perhaps  not  turning  to  Smartphones?   •  Explore  whether  this  is  true  and  what  the   implica5ons  are  
  • 31. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Curiosi-es   •  Bri5sh  research  Alexander  Flemming   •  Researching  Staphylococcus   •  Went  on  holiday  in  August,  leaving  petri  dishes   with  the  bacteria   •  On  return,  one  had  developed  a  mould  and  near   the  mould  the  bacteria  had  died   •  This  curiosity,  connected  with  a  prepared  mind,   led  to  penicillin  
  • 32. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Curiosi-es   •  Researching  a  new  brand  of  strong,  dark   chocolate   •  Parents  of  small  children  over-­‐index  on  liking   it.  In  open-­‐ends,  one  par5cipant  men5ons   buying  it  because  her  children  don’t  like  it   •  Hmm,  is  this  an  insight,  let’s  dig  deeper  
  • 33. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Contradic-ons   •  19th  Century  London,  John  Snow  is     inves5ga5ng  cholera   •  Predominant  theory  =  cholera  is  airborne   •  But!  He  looks  at  corpses.  The  lungs  look  good,   but  their  diges5ve  system  looked  damaged   CONTRADICTION   •  He  looked  for  inges5on  routes  and  discovered   cholera  was  spread  via  drinking  water  
  • 34. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Contradic-ons   •  Client  has  a  product  which  is  liked  by  children,   but  is  not  successful  –  they  believe  parents  are   not  buying  it   •  Research  brief,  find  out  how  to  persuade  more   parents  to  buy  it  for  their  children   •  But,  looking  in  trash  cans  finds  lots  of  uneaten   product  –  CONTRADICTION  many  children  do  not   actually  like  it  
  • 35. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Crea-ve  Jump   4  straight  lines   Not  leaving  the  paper  
  • 36. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Crea-ve  Jump   4  straight  lines   Not  leaving  the  paper   Outside  the  box  -­‐  really  
  • 37. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Crea-ve  Jump   •  When  people  use  it  they  love  it   – Make  it  free  and  charge  for  the  refills   •  These  candles  are  too  nice  to  burn  (use)   – See  them  as  giws  not  consumables   •  Growth  in  people  wan5ng  to  split  bills   – App  payment  designed  to  help  diners  and   restaurants  
  • 38. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Example  from  GRIT  2016   Sneak  Peek   for  Japan  
  • 39. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   A  Business  Ques-on?   Based  on  the  2016  GRIT  Study     What  advice  would  I  offer  the  Japanese   Research  industry?    
  • 40. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Framework  Informa-on   What  other  data  is  there?   •  Previous  GRIT  studies   •  ESOMAR  GMR  and  Prices   studies   •  FocusVision  /  Tim  Macer   studies   •  My  own  informa5on  from   working  with  JMRX  and   clients   What  were  the  predic-ons?   •  Japan  would  be  behind  in   adop5ng  new  research   approaches  –  several   sources  for  this  predic5on   •  The  support  for  Japanese   research  brands  would  be   mainly  from  Japan  –   Japanese  commentator   •  and  more  …  
  • 41. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   2  Elements  to  the  Ques-on   1.  What  advice  for  the  Japanese  research   industry  is  same  as  same  as  advice  for   research  industry  in  general   2.  What  advice  is  specific  to  the  Japanese   research  industry   So,  the  Total  Picture  is  the  Global   version  of  the  GRIT  Study  
  • 42. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Most  Innova-ve  Supplier   2016 Global 1   Brainjuicer 2   Ipsos 3   InSites Consulting 4   Nielsen 5   GFK 6   TNS 7   Vision Critical 8   LRW 9   Millward Brown 10   Google 22 Intage/インテージ 24 Macromill/マクロミル Japan # Company Global # 1   Intage/インテージ 22   2   Macromill/マクロミル 24   3   Brainjuicer 1   4   Nielsen 4   5   Kantar 16   6   GMO Research 50+   7   Vision Critical 7   8   Google 10   9   Ipsos 2   10   InSites Consulting 3   Base:  Global  2144,  Japan  108  
  • 43. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Innova-ve  Supplier  Story  Notes   Total  Picture   •  BrainJuicer  dominate   •  Leader  board  a  mix  of  ‘small’   and  large  companies   •  Leader  board  rela5vely  stable   over  last  3  years   •  But,  2  Japanese  companies   now  in  the  top  25   Japan  Specific  Notes   •  Top  2  brands  both  Japanese   –  BrainJuicer  global  image   strength  reaffirmed   •  3  of  the  top  ten  brands  in   Japan  are  Japanese   •  Almost  all  the  votes  for   Macromill  and  Intage  come   from  Japan   –  Confirming  a  predic5on  from   Japan  
  • 44. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Is  the  overall  quality  of  sample  going  to  get  beber,   worse  or  stay  the  same  over  the  next  3  years?   27%   38%   25%   11%   0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   Be^er   Worse   Stay  the  same   Not  sure   Global   Japan   Base:  Global  2144,  Japan  108   Total  Picture   Divided  opinion  about   future  of  sample  quality  
  • 45. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Japan?   27%   38%   25%   11%  8%   69%   15%   7%   0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   Be^er   Worse   Stay  the  same   Not  sure   Global   Japan   Ques5on:  Is  the  overall  quality  of  sample  going  to  get  be^er,   worse  or  stay  the  same  over  the  next  three  years?   Base:  Global  2144,  Japan  108   Total  Picture   Divided  opinion  about   future  of  sample  quality   Japan  Picture   Sample  quality  going   off  a  cliff.  
  • 46. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Japan  Overall  Story  &  Recommenda-ons   Story   •  Japan  is  fairly  similar  to  the   Global  picture   •  But,  Japan  is  behind  Europe   and  North  America  in   adop5on  of  new  technologies   &  Automa5on   •  Japan  has  some  strong   domes5c  brands  –  but  their   image  is  largely  domes5c   Recommenda-ons   •  In  technology/approaches   focus  on  developing  mobile   and  online  communi5es   •  In  automa5on,  focus  on     Project  Design,  Survey  Design,   Image  Processing,  and   Repor5ng   •  Japan’s  brands  need  to  learn   from  BrainJuicer,  InSites,  and   Vision  Cri5cal  in  terms  of   regional  and  global  image  
  • 47. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Good  and  Bad  News   •  There  are  four  typical  stories   –  Good  news   –  Good  news  with  caveats   –  Bad  news  with  some  op5ons   –  Bad  news   •  The  storytelling  for  these  four  cases  is  different   •  Good  news  and  bad  news  is  defined  by  what  the   client  wanted  AND  what  the  research  finds  
  • 48. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Bad  News   •  5  stages  of  grief   –  Anger,  Denial,  Bargaining,  Depression,  Acceptance   •  One  presenta5on/report  rarely  tackles  all  the  stages  of   bad  news   •  ‘Facts’  are  rarely  enough  to  persuade   –  Emo5ons  are  the  key  –  a  customer  video  can  be  more   powerful  than  any  amount  of  analysis   •  Go  back  to  a  point  where  the  expecta5ons  match  the   findings  and  build  from  there  
  • 49. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Communica-ng  Stories  Found  in   Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Minimise  the  use  of  numbers  in  quan5ta5ve   communica5on   Minimise  the  use  of  digits  in  communica5on   Illustrate  the  general  with  the  personal   What  do  you  want  people  to:   – Think,  Feel,  Do?  
  • 50. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Architecture  of  a  Typical  Story   •  Elevator  Pitch   •  3  suppor5ng  themes   •  3  pieces  of  evidence  for  each  theme   •  Execu5ve  summary,  including  the  elevator  pitch   and  the  three  themes   •  All  other  detail  goes  in  the  appendix  or  sent   separately   HT  Mike  Sherman  
  • 51. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Schedule   •  An  Introduc5on  and  Overview  -­‐  Feb  23     •  Working  with  Qualita5ve  Informa5on  –  Apr  5     •  Working  with  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on    -­‐  May  26     •  Working  with  mul5ple  streams  &  big  data  -­‐  July  5     •  U5lizing  visualiza5on  –  Sep  13     •  Presen5ng  the  story  -­‐  Nov  8    
  • 52. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Thank  You!       Follow  me  on  Twiber  @RayPoynter     Or  sign-­‐up  to  receive  our  weekly  mailing  at     hbp://NewMR.org      
  • 53. Finding  and  Communica-ng  the  Story  –  Lesson  3  of  6  –  Quan-ta-ve  Informa-on   Ray  Poynter,  2016   Q  &  A   Ray  Poynter   The  Future  Place