Technical Analysis Project

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Technical Analysis Project

  1. 1. The Indian Institute of Financial Planning Technical Analysis A Project Report Submitted By Shraddha Singh MBA – 6A
  2. 2. Acknowledgement I would like to express my special thanks of gratitude to my professor (Mr. Amit Bagga) (CA) as well as our Director (Mr. Niamatulla) who gave me the golden opportunity to do this wonderful project on the topic (Technical Analysis), which also helped me in doing a lot of Research and I came to know about so many new things I am really thankful to them. Secondly I would also like to thank other faculty member for their moral support & my parents and friends who helped me a lot in
  3. 3. finalizing this project within the limited time frame. Shraddha Singh MBA-6A The Indian Institute of Financial Planning Declaration I Shraddha Singh hereby declares that the work entitled “Technical Analysis” is my original work. I have not copied from
  4. 4. any other students’ work or from any other sources except where due reference or acknowledgement is made explicitly in the text, nor has any part been written for me by another person. Shraddha Singh MBA-6A
  5. 5. Table of Content Introduction to Technical Analysis Dow Theory Charts Candlesticks Support And Resistance Chart Patterns Technical Indicator Moving Averages Relative Strength Index MACD Stochastic Fibonacci Ratios Elliot Waves
  6. 6. Bibliography 1.Introduction to Technical Analysis Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time.
  7. 7. Technical analysis is applicable to stocks, indices, commodities, futures or any tradable instrument where the price is influenced by the forces of supply and demand. Price refers to any combination of the open, high, low, or close for a given security over a specific time frame. The time frame can be based on intraday (1-minute, 5-minutes, 10-minutes, 15- minutes, 30-minutes or hourly), daily, weekly or monthly price data and last a few hours or many years. In addition, some technical analysts include volume or open interest figures with their study of price action. In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data,
  8. 8. primarily price and volume. Behavioral economics and quantitative analysis use many of the same tools of technical analysis, which, being an aspect of active management, stands in contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory. The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable. The technical analysis is an art to identify, a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed.
  9. 9. 2. Dow Theory
  10. 10. The Dow theory was developed by William P. Hamilton, Robert Rhea, and E. George Schaefer from the work of Charles H. Dow, who was the founder and first editor of the Wall Street Journal and the co-founder of Dow Jones and Company, from which we still today have the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow Theory forms the basis of technical analysis, in which investment decisions are made on the basis of trends in the stock chart as opposed to qualities of the underlying company or the stock price. In short, the Dow Theory says the market is trending upwards when both the Dow Jones Industrial Index and the Dow Jones Transportation Index exceed a previous,
  11. 11. important high. Similarly, the market is trending downwards when both averages fall below previous lows. Technical investors seek to invest with the primary trend, not against it, i.e., buying during upward trends and selling during downward trends. The Dow Theory has six basic assumptions. The market discounts all news, that is, all of the news on a given company is already priced into the stock. The market has three main trends: the primary trend (the overriding trend of the
  12. 12. market), the secondary trend (a smaller correction of the primary trend), and the minor trend (a correction of the secondary trend). Investors shouldn't confuse a secondary trend (a correction) with the primary trend. Every primary trend has three phases. In a bull market, the phases are the accumulation phase (when informed investors get involved after a bear market), the public participation phase, and the excess phase (when prices are run up). In a bear market, the phases are the distribution phase (when informed investors get out after a bull market), the public participation phase, and the panic phase. Accumulation phases and
  13. 13. distribution phases are the most difficult to see, but also the most rewarding. The switch from a bear market primary trend to a bull market trend or vice versa cannot be confirmed until both indexes are in agreement. Volume is a secondary indicator to confirm the market trend. It should go up when prices are following the trend and go down when prices are going against the trend. 3. Price Charts A chart is simply a graphical representation of a series of prices over a set time frame. For example, a chart may show a stock's price movement over a one-year period, where each point on the graph represents
  14. 14. the closing price for each day the stock is traded. Chart Properties 1. The Time Scale The time scale refers to the range of dates at the bottom of the chart, which can vary from decades to seconds. The most frequently used time scales are intraday, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annually. The shorter the time frame, the more detailed the chart. Each data point can represent the closing price of the period or show the open, the high, the low and the close depending on the chart used. Daily charts are comprised of a series of price movements in which each price point on the
  15. 15. chart is a full day's trading condensed into one point. Again, each point on the graph can be simply the closing price or can entail the open, high, low and close for the stock over the day. These data points are spread out over weekly, monthly and even yearly time scales to monitor both short-term and intermediate trends in price movement. Weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts are used to analyze longer term trends in the movement of a stock's price. Each data point in these graphs will be a condensed version of what happened over the specified period. So for a weekly chart, each data point will be a representation of the price movement of the week
  16. 16. 2. The Price Scale and Price Point Properties The price scale is on the right-hand side of the chart. It shows a stock's current price and compares it to past data points. This may seem like a simple concept in that the price scale goes from lower prices to higher prices as you move along the scale from the bottom to the top. Charts Types There are four main types of charts that are used by investors and traders depending on the information that they are seeking and their individual skill levels. The chart types are: the line chart, the bar chart, the candlestick chart and the point and figure chart 1. Line Chart
  17. 17. Line chart is the most basic and simplest type of stock charts that are used in technical analysis. The line chart is also called a close- only chart as it plots the closing price of the underlying security, with a line connecting the dots formed by the close price. In a line chart the price data for the underlying security is plotted on a graph with the time plotted from left to right along the horizontal axis, or the x- axis and price levels plotted from the bottom up along the vertical axis, or the y-axis. The price data used in line charts is usually the close price of the underlying security. The uncluttered simplicity of the line chart is its greatest strength as it provides a clean, easily recognizable, visual display of the price movement. This makes it an ideal tool for use in identifying the dominant support and
  18. 18. resistance levels, trend lines, and certain chart patterns. However, the line chart does not indicate the highs and lows and, hence, they do not indicate the price range for the session. Despite this, line charts were the charting technique favored by Charles Dow who was only interested in the level at which the price closed. This, Dow felt, is the most important price data of the session or trading period as it determined that period's unrealized profit or loss.
  19. 19. Fig- Showing The Line Chart 2. Bar Chart Bar charts are one of the most popular forms of stock charts and were the most widely used charts before the introduction of candlestick charts. Bar charts are drawn on a graph that plots time on the horizontal axis and price levels on the vertical axis. These charts provide much more information than line charts as they consists of a series of vertical
  20. 20. bars that indicate various price data for each time-frame on the chart. This data can be either the open price, the high price, the low price and the close price, making it an OHLC bar chart, or the high price, the low price and the close price, making it an HLC bar chart. The height of each OHLC and HLC bar indicates the price range for that period with the high at the top of the bar and the low at the bottom of the bar. Each OHLC and HLC bar has a small horizontal tick to the right of the bar to indicate the close price for that period. An OHLC bar will also have a small horizontal tick to the left of the bar to indicate the open price for that period. The extra information is one of the reasons why the OHLC charts are more popular than HLC charts. In addition, some charting applications
  21. 21. use colors to indicate bullish or bearishness of a bar in relation to the close of the previous bar. This makes the OHLC bar chart quite similar to the candlestick chart, except that the OHLC chart does not indicate bullishness or bearishness of the period of one bar as clearly as the candlestick chart (the color of an OHLC bar is always in relation to the close of the pervious bar rather than the open and close of the current bar).
  22. 22. Fig Showing Bar Chart (OHLC) 3. Candlesticks Charts Japanese candlestick charts form the basis of the oldest form of technical analysis. They were developed in the 17th century by a Japanese rice trader named Homma. Candlestick charts provide the same information as OHLC bar charts, namely open price, high price, low price and close price, however, candlestick charting also provide a visual indication of market psychology, market
  23. 23. sentiment, and potential weakness, making it a rather valuable trading tool. Candlesticks indicate a bullish up bar, when the closing price is higher than the opening price, using a light color such as white or green, and a bearish down bar, when the closing price is lower than the opening price, using a darker color such as black or red for the real body of the candlestick. Thus, on a green candlestick, the close price will be at the top of the candlestick real body and the open price at the bottom as the close price is higher than the open price; conversely on a red bar the close price will be at the bottom of the candlestick real body and the open price at the top as the close price is lower than the open price. For both a bullish and a bearish candlestick, the high price and the low and the
  24. 24. low price for the session will be indicated by the top and bottom of the thin vertical line above and below the real body. This vertical line is called the shadow or the wick. The shape and color of a candlestick can change several times during its formation. Therefore the trader must wait for the candlestick to be formed completely at the end of the time-frame to analyze the candlestick, forcing the trader to wait for the bar to close.
  25. 25. Fig- Showing Candlesticks Chart On Nifty Daily 4. Candlesticks Patterns 1. Bullish Engulfing
  26. 26. Bullish Engulfing is an important bottom reversal pattern. It appears after a downtrend. It's a two candlestick pattern. In this, a large white candle completely engulfs the preceding small black candle. Though it is not necessary for the white candle to engulf the shadows of the previous black candle, it should engulf the entire real body. It's an important bullish reversal signal. Heavy volume on second day of the pattern creates higher probability of trend reversal.
  27. 27. Fig Showing Bullish Engulfing Candlesticks Interpretation- Bullish Engulfing Pattern around 460 price level , We will enter this trade around Rs.470, And exit At 530 where candles are forming a hanging man patter which is an reversal pattern. 2. Bearish Engulfing Bearish Engulfing is one of the important bearish reversal patterns. It appears after an uptrend. It's a two candlestick pattern. In this, a large black candle completely engulfs the preceding small white candle. Though it is not necessary for the black candle to engulf the shadows of the previous white candle, it should engulf the entire real body. Heavy
  28. 28. volume on second day of the pattern creates higher probability of trend reversal. Fig Showing: Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Interpretation- Bullish Engulfing Pattern formed at 480 price level on 10-feb-2014 . We can short sell this stock at around Rs.487 and can buy back around Rs.465, where Bullish Harami pattern is formed.
  29. 29. 3. Bullish Harami Bullish Harami is a bullish reversal pattern. It is characterized by a large black candle, followed by a small white candle. The white candle is contained completely within the previous black candle. The pattern appears in a downtrend. A long black candle is seen, which is followed by a small white candle, which is completely engulfed by the previous day candle. Shadows need not be compulsorily engulfed, but real body should
  30. 30. be. The market is entering in an indecision or congestion phase post Bullish Harami. Fig Showing Bullish Engulfing Candlesticks Interpretation-Bullish Harami has formed Asian Paints on 21-Feb-2014 around Rs.460 price levels we can enter this stock by buying it around Rs.465.We can continue to hold this positing till there is a sign of bullish reversal. 4. Bearish Harami Bearish Harami is a bearish reversal pattern. It is characterized by a large white candle, followed by a small black candle. The black candle is contained completely within the previous white candle. The pattern appears in an uptrend. A long white candle is seen,
  31. 31. which is followed by a small black candle, which is completely engulfed by the previous day candle. Shadows need not be compulsorily engulfed, but real body should be. Fig Showing Bearish Harami Candlestick Interpretation- After an uptrend Bearish Harami formed on Bharti Airtel around Rs.370 after an confirmation from next candle which shows and gap down opening. So here we can enter the market by taking a short position at Rs.360 and
  32. 32. can exit the market around Rs.332 where market is reversing because of Bullish Harami formation. 5. Hammer Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern, which occurs at the bottom of a trend. This pattern appears after or during a downtrend. It is a single candlestick pattern. It resembles with Bullish Dragonfly Doji. The only difference is doji has same opening and closing while
  33. 33. Hammer has a small real body at the upper end. Colour of Hammer is not important. However, it is considered as more potent, if its colour is white. Lower shadow of Hammer should be twice as long as real body. There should be very little or no upper shadow. Fig Showing Candlestick Patten: Hammer Interpretation- 17-Feb-2014- Hammer pattern form around price level of Rs.1100 , we can enter the trade at Rs.1100 , And till now we haven’t seen any trend reversal so we can continue with this trade, and we can exit this trade as soon as we seen any sign of trend reversal. 5. Inverted Hammer Inverted Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern. This pattern is characterized by a long upper
  34. 34. shadow and a small real body, appearing after a long black real body. This pattern appears in a downtrend. In this pattern, a long black candle appears on first day. On second day, a small real body appears which forms at the lower end of range. Second day's candle has upper shadow, which is at least twice as long as the real body and does not have lower shadow. Colour of the real body is not of much importance.
  35. 35. Interpretation- On 3rd Feb there is a inverted hammer followed by long black candle , inverted hammer is a bearish reversal patter , so next day’s white candle shows trend reversal so we can enter the trade around price level of Rs.470 , we can exit this trade on 10th of Feb which shows a dark cloud cover which is a reversal pattern. We can earn profit of Rs.20 per share if we exit around Rs.490. 6. Shooting Star Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern, appearing at market top. Its a small real body with long upper shadow and no lower shadow,
  36. 36. which gaps away from the previous candle. This pattern appears in an uptrend. A white candle is seen on first day. Next day, gap up opening happens. This candle appears as a small real body, with upper shadow at least twice as long as the real body. It has no lower shadow. The pattern indicates that the uptrend is near to an end. Interpretation- Shooting start is bullish reversal pattern as it form at the top of the bull market; we will sell this stock around Rs.66.5 and will exit from this trade around Rs.61 as it shows bullish engulfing at the down side. 5. Support and Resistance
  37. 37. Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control. 1. Support Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the
  38. 38. price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support. Support does not always hold and a break below support signals that the bears have won out over the bulls. A decline below support indicates a new willingness to sell and/or a lack of incentive to buy. Support breaks and new lows signal that sellers have reduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyers could not be coerced into buying until prices declined below support or below the previous
  39. 39. low. Once support is broken, another support level will have to be established at a lower level.
  40. 40. 2. Resistance Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.
  41. 41. Resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance signals that the bulls have won out over the bears. A break above resistance shows a new willingness to buy and/or a lack of incentive to sell. Resistance breaks and new highs indicate buyers have increased their expectations and are willing to buy at even higher prices. In addition, sellers could not be coerced into selling until prices rose above resistance or above the previous
  42. 42. high. Once resistance is broken, another resistance level will have to be established at a higher level. 6. Chart Patterns 1. Head and Shoulders A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline. As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder,
  43. 43. a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples. 1. Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter). 2. Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the
  44. 44. decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact. 3. Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy. 4. Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of
  45. 45. whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline. 5. Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness— a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. Sometimes more than one low point can be used to form the neckline. 6. Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important
  46. 46. role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder. 7. Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is
  47. 47. broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume. 8. Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.
  48. 48. Interpretation- Head and Shoulder chart pattern give sell signal after breaking the neckline, Bajaj Auto breaches the level of neckline around Rs.2067 so we will short sell the stock and we can have price target of (2067-180=1887). Downfall of price 180 is measured from perpendicular drawn from top of head to neckline. We will exit this trade around Rs.1887.
  49. 49. 2. Reverse Head and Shoulder Interpretation- Reverse head and shoulder pattern in Maruti ltd. Shows the buying signal around Rs. 1546 ,and which have a price target of 1758 (i.e. 1758-1546=212) So we will enter in this trade around 1546 and we will exit around the price level of 1760.
  50. 50. 3. Double Top The Double Top Reversal is a bearish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts and candlestick charts. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between. Although there can be variations, the classic Double Top Reversal marks at least an
  51. 51. intermediate change, if not a long-term change, in trend from bullish to bearish. Many potential Double Top Reversals can form along the way up, but until key support is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the key points in the formation and then walk through an example. 1. Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Double Top Reversal, a significant uptrend of several months should be in place. 2. First Peak: The first peak should mark the highest point of the current trend. As such, the first peak is fairly normal and the
  52. 52. uptrend is not in jeopardy (or in question) at this time. 3. Trough: After the first peak, a decline takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the decline from the first peak is usually inconsequential. The lows are sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit, which can be a sign of tepid demand. 4. Second Peak: The advance off the lows usually occurs with low volume and meets resistance from the previous high. Resistance from the previous high should be expected. Even after meeting resistance, only the possibility of a Double Top Reversal exists. The pattern still needs to be confirmed. The time period between peaks can vary from a few weeks to many
  53. 53. months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact peaks are preferable, there is some leeway. Usually a peak within 3% of the previous high is adequate. 5. Decline from Peak: The subsequent decline from the second peak should witness an expansion in volume and/or an accelerated descent, perhaps marked with a gap or two. Such a decline shows that the forces of demand are weaker than supply and a support test is imminent. 6. Support Break: Even after trading down to support, the Double Top Reversal and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking support from the lowest point between the peaks completes the Double Top Reversal. This too should occur with
  54. 54. an increase in volume and/or an accelerated descent. 7. Support Turned Resistance: Broken support becomes potential resistance and there is sometimes a test of this newfound resistance level with a reaction rally. Such a test can offer a second chance to exit a position or initiate a short. 8. Price Target: The distance from support break to peak can be subtracted from the support break for a price target. This would infer that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential decline.
  55. 55. Figure-Showing Double Top (Coal-India) Interpretation- Under Double Top Pattern – we enter in trade when price break the support level around Rs.275 so we short sell coal India and can have potential price fall of Rs.25(i.e. difference between the second peak and support break level. We can exit this trade around Rs.245 which shows and bullish engulfing candle which is a signal of trend reversal.
  56. 56. 4. Double Bottom The Double Bottom Reversal is a bullish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts and candlestick charts. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between. Although there can be variations, the classic Double Bottom Reversal usually marks an intermediate or long-term change in trend. Many potential Double Bottom Reversals can form along the way down, but until key resistance is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the
  57. 57. key points in the formation and then walk through an example. 1. Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Double Bottom Reversal, a significant downtrend of several months should be in place. 2. First Trough: The first trough should mark the lowest point of the current trend. As such, the first trough is fairly normal in appearance and the downtrend remains firmly in place. 3. Peak: After the first trough, an advance takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the advance from the first trough is usually inconsequential, but an increase could signal early accumulation.
  58. 58. The high of the peak is sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit from the hesitation to go back down. This hesitation indicates that demand is increasing, but still not strong enough for a breakout. 4. Second Trough: The decline off the reaction high usually occurs with low volume and meets support from the previous low. Support from the previous low should be expected. Even after establishing support, only the possibility of a Double Bottom Reversal exists, and it still needs to be confirmed. The time period between troughs can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact troughs are preferable, there is some room to maneuver and usually a
  59. 59. trough within 3% of the previous is considered valid. 5. Advance from Trough: Volume is more important for the Double Bottom Reversal than the double top. There should clear evidence that volume and buying pressure are accelerating during the advance off of the second trough. An accelerated ascent, perhaps marked with a gap or two, also indicates a potential change in sentiment. 6. Resistance Break: Even after trading up to resistance, the double top and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking resistance from the highest point between the troughs completes the Double Bottom Reversal. This too should occur with an
  60. 60. increase in volume and/or an accelerated ascent. 7. Resistance Turned Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support and there is sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction. Such a test can offer a second chance to close a short position or initiate a long. 8. Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to trough lows can be added on top of the resistance break to
  61. 61. estimate a target. This would imply that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential advance. Fig showing Double bottom Interpretation- Under Double Bottom Pattern – we enter in trade when price break the resistance level around Rs.7000 so we buy Mid-Cap and can have potential price rise in price of Rs.470(i.e. difference between the second peak and support break level. We can exit this trade around Rs.7470, and book our measured profit., 5. Ascending Triangle The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they
  62. 62. are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation. Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more equal highs form a horizontal line at the top. Two or more rising troughs form an ascending trend line that converges on the horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were extended right, the ascending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending down from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example.
  63. 63. 1. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important as the robustness of the formation, which is paramount. 2. Top Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction highs are required to form the top horizontal line. The highs do not have to be exact, but they should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance between the highs, and a reaction low between them. 3. Lower Ascending Trend Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower ascending trend line. These reaction lows
  64. 64. should be successively higher, and there should be some distance between the lows. If a more recent reaction low is equal to or less than the previous reaction low, then the ascending triangle is not valid. 4. Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When the upside breakout occurs, there should be an expansion of volume to confirm the breakout. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary. 5. Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that resistance turns into support and vice versa. When the horizontal resistance line of the ascending triangle is broken, it turns into support. Sometimes there will be a return to this
  65. 65. support level before the move begins in earnest. 6. Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and applying it to the resistance breakout. Interpretation- Ascending Triangle is a continuation pattern, so after breakout it will continue with uptrend, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the
  66. 66. pattern and applying it to the resistance breakout. We enter this trade around Rs.187 and can book profit Rs.60. We exit this trade around Rs.247 where chart shows Bearish Harami. 6. Descending Triangle
  67. 67. The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution. Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more comparable lows form a horizontal line at the bottom. Two or more declining peaks form a descending trend line above that converges with the horizontal line as it descends. If both lines were extended right, the descending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a
  68. 68. perpendicular line were drawn extending up from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example. 1. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the descending triangle is definitely a bearish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important. The robustness of the formation is paramount. 2. Lower Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction lows are required to form the lower horizontal line. The lows do not have to be exact, but should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be
  69. 69. some distance separating the lows and a reaction high between them. 3. Upper Descending Trend Line: At least two reaction highs are required to form the upper descending trend line. These reaction highs should be successively lower and there should be some distance between the highs. If a more recent reaction high is equal to or greater than the previous reaction high, then the descending triangle is not valid. 4. Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months, with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months. 5. Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When
  70. 70. the downside break occurs, there would ideally be an expansion of volume for confirmation. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary. 6. Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that broken support turns into resistance and visa versa. When the horizontal support line of the descending triangle is broken, it turns into resistance. Sometimes there will be a return to this newfound resistance level before the down move begins in earnest. 7. Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance breakout.
  71. 71. Figure showing Descending Triangle (Nifty Weekly) Interpretation -Descending Triangle is a continuation pattern, so after breakout it will continue with downtrend, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and applying it to the resistance breakout. We enter this trade around Rs.5350 and can book profit Rs.800.
  72. 72. We exit this trade around Rs.4500. 7. Symmetrical Triangle The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a
  73. 73. contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time. While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout. We will examine each part of the symmetrical triangle individually, and then provide an example with Conseco. 1. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. The trend should be at least a few months old and the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout.
  74. 74. 2. Four (4) Points: At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and 2 trend lines are required to form a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high (2) should be lower than the first (1) and the upper line should slope down. The second low (2) should be higher than the first (1) and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6 points (3 on each side) before a breakout occurs. 3. Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the
  75. 75. tightening consolidation before the breakout. 4. Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is about 3 months. 5. Breakout Time Frame: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the
  76. 76. apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime. 6. Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sounds obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case. 7. Breakout Confirmation: For a break to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.
  77. 77. 8. Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout. 9. Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
  78. 78. Interpretation- We will enter in trade when price give breakout from triangle And then we can remain on the trade until or unless price touches the line number 1. We can exit the market as soon as it touches that , So we will enter at Rs.341 and will exit around Rs.220.
  79. 79. 7. Technical Indicator And Oscillators A technical indicator is a series of data points that are derived by applying a formula to the price data of a security. Price data includes any combination of the open, high, low or
  80. 80. close over a period of time. Some indicators may use only the closing prices, while others incorporate volume and open interest into their formulas. The price data is entered into the formula and a data point is produced. Technical Indicators broadly serve three functions: to alert, to confirm and to predict. Indicator acts as an alert to study price action, sometimes it also gives a signal to watch for a break of support. A large positive divergence can act as an alert to watch for a resistance breakout. Indicators can be used to confirm other technical analysis tools. Some investors and traders use indicators to predict the direction of future prices. Types of indicators
  81. 81. Indicators can broadly be divided into two types “LEADING” and “LAGGING”. Leading indicators Leading indicators are designed to lead price movements. Benefits of leading indicators are early signaling for entry and exit, generating more signals and allow more opportunities to trade. They represent a form of price momentum over a fixed look-back period, which is the number of periods used to calculate the indicator. Some of the wellmore popular leading indicators include Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Momentum, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R. Lagging Indicators
  82. 82. Lagging Indicators are the indicators that would follow a trend rather then predicting a reversal. A lagging indicator follows an event. These indicators work well when prices move in relatively long trends. They don’t warn you of upcoming changes in prices, they simply tell you what prices are doing (i.e., rising or falling) so that you can invest accordingly. These trend following indicators makes you buy and sell late and, in exchange for missing the early opportunities, they greatly reduce your risk by keeping you on the right side of the market. Moving averages and the MACD are examples of trend following, or “lagging,” indicators.
  83. 83. 1. Relative Strength Index Developed J. Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Traditionally, and according to Wilder, RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. Signals can also be generated by looking for divergences, failure swings and centerline crossovers. RSI can also be used to identify the general trend.
  84. 84. Application of RSI RSI is a momentum oscillator generally used in sideways or ranging markets where the price moves between support and resistance levels. It is one of the most useful technical tool employed by many traders to measure the velocity of directional price movement. Overbought and Oversold The RSI is a price-following oscillator that ranges between 0 and 100. Generally, technical analysts use 30% oversold and 70% overbought lines to generate the buy and sell signals. • Go long when the indicator moves from below to above the oversold line. • Go short when the indicator moves from above to below the overbought line.
  85. 85. Note here that the direction of crossing is important; the indicator needs to first go past the overbought/oversold lines and then cross back through them. Divergence The other means of using RSI is to look at divergences between price peaks/troughs and indicator peaks/ troughs. If the price makes a new higher peak but the momentum does not make a corresponding higher peak this indicates there is less power driving the new price high? Since there is less power or support for the new higher price a reversal could be expected. Similarly if the price makes a new lower trough but the momentum indicator does not
  86. 86. make a corresponding lower trough, then it can be surmised that the downward movement is running out of strength and a reversal upward could soon be expected. Figure Showing RSI Indicator Interpretation – RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a leading indicator, it gives the intimation before price takes actual moves, so as per this premise,
  87. 87. and we can go short when the indicator moves from above to below the overbought line. And Go long when the indicator moves from below to above the oversold line. On 5 November 2013, RSI moves from above to below the overbought line which is and sell signal and on the same day candlesticks showing Bearish Harami Pattern which confirms the sell signal. 1. We will enter the trade at price level Rs.1210 by selling the stock and exit the market by buying it around Rs.1030. 2.We will this buy this stock again on 16th Feb 2014 where RSI moves from below to above the oversold line which is and buying signal and candlesticks showing hammer pattern which is a trend reversal patter so we buy this stock around Rs.1110 And there no trend reversal so we can continue to hold this position.
  88. 88. 2. Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence / Divergence. It is a technical analysis indicator created by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s. The MACD indicator is basically a refinement of the two moving averages system and measures the distance between the two moving average lines. What is the MACD and how is it calculated? The MACD does not completely fall into either the trend-leading indicator or trend following indicator; it is in fact a hybrid with elements of both. The MACD comprises two lines, the fast line and the slow or signal line. These are easy to identify as the slow line will be the smoother of the two.
  89. 89. Step1. Calculate a 12 period exponential moving average of the close price. Step2. Calculate a 26 period exponential moving average of the close price. Step3. Subtract the 26 period moving average from the 12 period moving average. This is the fast MACD line. Step4. Calculate a 9 period exponential moving average of the fast MACD line calculated above. This is the slow or signal MACD line. Use of MACD lines MACD generates signals from three main sources: • Moving average crossover • Centreline crossover • Divergence
  90. 90. Crossover of fast and slow lines The MACD proves most effective in wide- swinging trading markets. We will first consider the use of the two MACD lines. The signals to go long or short are provided by a crossing of the fast and slow lines. The basic MACD trading rules are as follows: • Go long when the fast line crosses above the slow line. • Go short when the fast line crosses below the slow line. These signals are best when they occur some distance above or below the reference line. If the lines remain near the reference line for an extended period as usually occurs in a
  91. 91. sideways market, then the signals should be ignored. Centre line crossover A bullish centre line crossover occurs when MACD moves above the zero line and into positive territory. This is a clear indication that momentum has changed from negative to positive or from bearish to bullish. After a positive divergence and bullish moving average crossover, the centre line crossover can act as a confirmation signal. Of the three signals, moving average crossover are probably the second most common signals. A bearish centre line crossover occurs when MACD moves below zero and into negative territory. This is a clear indication that momentum has changed from positive to negative or from bullish to bearish. The centre
  92. 92. line crossover can act as an independent signal, or confirm a prior signal such as a moving average crossover or negative divergence. Once MACD crosses into negative territory, momentum, at least for the short term, has turned bearish.
  93. 93. Figure Showing MACD (Sunpharma) Interpretation- 25 July 2013 , RSI shows buying signal as RSI moves from below to above the oversold line which is and buying signal and candlesticks showing Bullish Engulfing which is a buying signal and In MACD fast line crosses above the slow line which is an buying signal and Volumes are high on this day, All the indicators and Bullish Harami shows the buy signal so we can enter in the market at this point around price level of Rs. 475. And we will exit this market around Rs.570 where candles shows bearish engulfing, RSI moves from above to below the overbought line, which is an sell signal , MACD fast line crosses below the slow line which is an sell signal. So as per these signals we can exit the market.
  94. 94. 3. Stochastic The Stochastic indicator was developed by George Lane. It compares where a security’s price closes over a selected number of period.
  95. 95. The most commonly 14 periods stochastic is used. The Stochastic indicator is designated by “%K” which is just a mathematical representation of a ratio. %K=(today’s Close)-(Lowest low over a selected period)/ (Highest over a selected period)- (Lowest low over a selected period) For example, if today’s close is 50 and high and low over last 14 days is 40 and 55 respectively then, %K= 50-40/55-40 =0.666 Finally these values are multiplied by 100 to change decimal value into percentage for better calling.
  96. 96. This 0.666 signifies that today’s close was at 66.6% level relative to its trading range over last 14 days. A moving average of %K is then calculated which is designated by %D. The most commonly 3 period’s %D is used. The stochastic indicator always moves between zero and hundred, hence it is also known as stochastic oscillator. The value of stochastic oscillator near to zero signifi es that today’s close is near to lowest price security traded over a selected period and similarly value of stochastic oscillator near to hundred signifies that today’s close is near to highest price security traded over a selected period. Interpretation of Stochastic Indicator
  97. 97. Most popularly stochastic indicator is used in three ways a. To define overbought and oversold zone- Generally stochastic oscillator reading above 80 is considered overbought and stochastic oscillator reading below 20 is considered oversold. It basically suggests that • One should book profit in buy side positions and should avoid new buy side positions in an overbought zone. • One should book profit in sell side positions and should avoid new sell side positions in an oversold zone b. Buy when %K line crosses % D line (dotted line) to the upside in oversold zone and sell
  98. 98. when %K line crosses % D line(dotted line) to the downside in overbought zone. c. Look for Divergences- Divergences are of two types i.e. positive and negative. Positive Divergence-are formed when price makes new low, but stochastic oscillator fails to make new low. This divergence suggests a reversal of trend from down to up. Negative Divergence-are formed when price makes new high, but stochastic oscillator fails to make new high. This divergence suggests a reversal of trend from up to down.
  99. 99. Figure Showing Stochastic (Nifty) Interpretation- On Nov 1 2013 , Candlesticks shows and spinning top which shows a sign of trend reversal , RSI moves from above to below the overbought line, which is an sell signal, and Stochastic shows %K line crosses % D line to the downside in overbought zone which is also an sell
  100. 100. signal so we enter the market at this point after getting confirmation from the indicators which is showing and sell signal so we will take short position in nifty around Rs.6300, and will buy back it around Rs.6000 where %K line crosses % D line to the upside, So we will gain Rs.300 per share. Same we will use for further crossover of %K and %D.
  101. 101. 4. Moving Averages Moving averages One of the most common and familiar trend- following indicators is the moving averages. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends, something that is especially helpful in volatile markets. They also form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays.
  102. 102. The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). They are described in more detail below. 4.1. Simple moving average (SMA) A simple moving average is formed by computing the average (mean) price of a security over a specified number of periods. It places equal value on every price for the time span selected. While it is possible to create moving averages from the Open, the High, and the Low data points, most moving averages are created using the closing price. For example: a
  103. 103. 5-day simple moving average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the last 5 days and dividing the total by 5. 4.2 Exponential moving average (EMA) Exponential moving average also called as exponentially weighted moving average is calculated by applying more weight to recent prices relative to older prices. In order to reduce the lag in simple moving averages, technicians often use exponential moving averages. The weighting applied to the most recent price depends on the specified period of the moving average. The 82 shorter the EMA’s period, weight is
  104. 104. applied to the most recent price. For example: a 10-period exponential moving average weighs the most recent price 18.18% while a 20-period EMA weighs the most recent price 9.52%. As we’ll see, the calculating and EMA is much harder than calculating an SMA. The important thing to remember is that the exponential moving average puts more weight on recent prices. As such, it will react quicker to recent price changes than a simple moving average. Exponential moving average calculation The formula for an exponential moving average is: EMA (current) = ((Price (current) - EMA (prev)) x (Multiplier) + EMA (prev)
  105. 105. For a percentage-based EMA, “Multiplier” is equal to the EMA’s specified percentage. For a period-based EMA, “Multiplier” is equal to 2 / (1 + N) where N is the specified number of periods. Note that, in exponential moving average, every previous closing price in the data set is used in the calculation. The impact of the older data never disappears though it diminishes over a period of time. This is true regardless of the EMA’s specified period. The effects of older data diminish rapidly for shorter EMA’s than for longer ones but, again, they never completely Disappear.
  106. 106. Interpretation- Using Moving Averages, we can continuously enter and exit the market as moving averages gives crossover to prices. 1. First long position is at Rs.5830 where price moves above the 15-days moving average and we will exit the market around Rs.6190 when price moves below the15-days moving average. Profit=6190(Sell)- 5830(Buy)=Rs.360
  107. 107. 2 Second long position is at Rs.6105 where price moves above the 15-days moving average and we will exit the market around Rs.6220 when price moves below the15-days moving average. Profit=6220(Sell)-6105(Buy) =Rs.115 3. Third long position is at Rs.6220 where price moves above the 15-days moving average and we will exit the market around Rs.6270 when price moves below the15-days moving average. Profit=6270(Sell)-6220(Buy) =Rs.50 4. Fourth long position is at Rs.6185 where price moves above the 15-days moving average and till now there is no sign of moving average crossover with price so we can continue to carry the position.
  108. 108. 8. Fibonacci Retracements Overview Leonardo Fibonacci was a mathematician who was born in Italy around the year 1170. It is believed that Mr. Fibonacci discovered the relationship of what are now referred to as Fibonacci numbers while studying the Great Pyramid of Gizeh in Egypt.
  109. 109. Fibonacci numbers are a sequence of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 610, etc. These numbers possess an intriguing number of interrelationships, such as the fact that any given number is approximately 1.618 times the preceding number and any given number is approximately 0.618 times the following number. The booklet Understanding Fibonacci Numbers by Edward Dobson contains a good discussion of these interrelationships. Retracements Fibonacci Retracements are displayed by first drawing a trend line between two extreme points, for example, a trough and opposing
  110. 110. peak. A series of nine horizontal lines are drawn intersecting the trend line at the Fibonacci levels of 0.0%, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. (Some of the lines will probably not be visible because they will be off the scale.) After a significant price move (either up or down), prices will often retrace a Significant portion (if not all) of the original move. As prices retrace, support and
  111. 111. resistance levels often occur at or near the Fibonacci Retracement levels. Figure Showing-Fibonacci Retracement Levels Interpretations – Fibonacci Retracement tools help to identify the support and resistance level in the stock by using golden ratios. So as we can see inn above chart strong resistance level are at 23.6% because price has came down 2 times after reaching 23.6% levels and strong Support levels are at around 50.0% levels because price has moved above 2 times after reaching 50.0% of price. These percentage levels are exactly the same as Fibonacci golden ratios. 9. Elliot Waves Theory Overview
  112. 112. The Elliott Wave Theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott. Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout nature, Elliott concluded that themovement of the stock market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. In fact, Elliott believed that all of man's activities, not just the stock market, were influenced by these identifiable series of waves. With the help of C. J. Collins, Elliott's ideas received the attention of Wall Street in a series of articles published in Financial World magazine in 1939. During the 1950s and 1960s (after Elliott's passing), his work was advanced by Hamilton Bolton. In 1960, Bolton wrote Elliott Wave Principle--A Critical Appraisal. This was the first significant work
  113. 113. since Elliott's passing. In 1978, Robert Prechter and A. J. Frost collaborated to write the book Elliott Wave Principle. Interpretation The underlying forces behind the Elliott Wave Theory are of building up and tearing down. The basic concepts of the Elliott Wave Theory are listed below. 1. Action is followed by reaction. There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a "5-3" move). 2. A 5-3 move completes a cycle. This 5-3 move then becomes two
  114. 114. subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave. 3. The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each may vary. 4.The basic pattern is made up of eight waves (five up and three down) which are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, and c on the following chart. Waves 1, 3, and 5 are called impulse waves. Waves 2 and 4 are called corrective waves. Waves a, b, and c correct the main trend made by waves 1 through 5. The main trend
  115. 115. is established by waves 1 through 5 and can be either up or down. Waves a, b, and c always move in the opposite direction of waves 1 through 5. Elliott Wave Theory holds that each wave within a wave count contains a complete 5-3 wave count of a smaller cycle. The longest wave count is called the Grand Supercycle. Grand Supercycle waves are comprised of Supercycles, and Supercycles are comprised of Cycles. This process continues into Primary, Intermediate, Minute, Minuette, and Sub-minuette waves. The following chart shows how 5-3 waves are comprised of smaller cycles.
  116. 116. This chart contains the identical pattern shown in the preceding chart (now displayed using dotted lines), but the smaller cycles are also displayed. For example, you can see that impulse wave labeled 1 in the preceding chart is
  117. 117. comprised of five smaller waves. Fibonacci numbers provide the mathematical foundation for the Elliott Wave Theory. Briefly, the Fibonacci number sequence is made by simply starting at 1 and adding the previous number to arrive at the new number (i.e., 0+1=1, 1+1=2,2+1=3, 3+2=5, 5+3=8, 8+5=13, etc). Each of the cycles that Elliott defined are comprised of a total wave count that falls within the Fibonacci number sequence.
  118. 118. Bibliography Books 1. NCFM- Technical Analysis Module 2. Technical Analysis Of Stock Trend Strength-9th Edition (John Magee) 3. Tehnical Analysis for Financial Market Technician 4. Japanese Candlesticks Charting (Steve Nison) 5. Technical Analysis (Martin J.Pring)
  119. 119. 6. Technical Analysis from A to Z ( Steven B. Achelis) 7.The Secret Code of Japanese Candlesticks - Felipe Tudela 8.Trend Forecasting with Technical Analysis Website 1. www.chartink.com 2. www.bigpaisa.com 3. www.Moneycontrol.com 4. www.stockchats.com 5. www.nseindia.com 6. www.investing.com 7. www.icharts.com

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