1.
Wisdom of the
crowds
@RadekLont
#abe16

2.
(1)
(2)
(3)

3.
DIVERSE GROUP
ClibPDF - www.fastio.com
Francis Galton
(1907)
INDEPENDENT DECISION
(2004)
(2004)
(2011)

4.
DIVERSE GROUP
INDEPENDENT DECISION
WHAT IF…

5.
REAL: 112
MEAN: 116
MEDIAN: 115
120 votes
3,5%
90
107,5
125
142,5
160
guesses mean value real value

6.
REAL: 112
MEAN: 111,2
MEDIAN: 112
15 students
REAL: 112
MEAN: 112,8
MEDIAN: 111
6 agilers

7.
REAL: 72
MEAN: 69,5
MEDIAN: 70
100 votes
2,7%
40
52,5
65
77,5
90
guesses mean value real value

8.
MEAN: 74
MEDIAN: 72
26 mix
MEAN: 69
MEDIAN: 71
8 Dev Team
REAL: 72

9.
120 votes
REAL: 828
MEAN: 903
MEDIAN: 760
9%
8%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
guesses mean value real value

10.
REAL: 828
MEAN: 519
MEDIAN: 417
6 agilers

11.
DIVERSE GROUP
INDEPENDENT DECISION
PROBE over DATA

12.
BACKLOG REFINEMENT
is a PROCESS
DEVOPS way is to
EXPERIMENT
Assure QUALITY
at the source

13.
@RadekLont
#abe16
Wisdom of AbE crowd?

14.
REAL: 112y 828m 75kg
MEAN: 115 700 78
MEDIAN: 115 765 77
139 votes
#AbE16
2,5% 15%
7,5%
4%
2,5%