Central Texas Education Trends

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E3 Alliance uses objective data and focused community collaboration to align our education systems so all students succeed and lead Central Texas to economic prosperity

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Central Texas Education Trends

  1. 1. Central Texas Education Trends Raise Your Hand Texas Community Leadership in Education Forum October 22, 2013 Susan Dawson www.e3alliance.org Twitter: #E3Alliance © 2013 E3 Alliance
  2. 2. E3 Alliance is a Catalyst For Educational Change in Central Texas Mission E3 Alliance uses objective data and focused community collaboration to align our education systems so all students succeed and lead Central Texas to economic prosperity © 2013 E3 Alliance
  3. 3. 157 Students © 2013 E3 Alliance
  4. 4. 314 Students © 2013 E3 Alliance
  5. 5. ? X X X ? X X X X X X Students X ? ? ? 120? 157 X ? ? ? X X X X X ? X X ?? ? X X ? X ? © 2013 E3 Alliance ? X
  6. 6. Overall, too few students   Graduate high school   Go to college, and   Get a post-secondary degree To meet the needs of our region in a globally competitive economy © 2013 E3 Alliance
  7. 7. Without Systemic Change, Attainment Will Drop 40% Projected % of Texas Population Ages 18 to 65 by Education Outcomes Percent of Population 35% 30% 30% 25% 29% 29% 24% 20% 15% 29% 19% 18% 13% 10% 5% 7% 4% 0% No HS Diploma HS Graduate Some College 2000 2040 Bachelor's Degree © 2013 E3 Alliance Grad/Prof Degree 7
  8. 8. Economic Benefits to Region and State are Huge! Benefits of “Closing the Gaps” to college”: •  Cumulative Additional Output = $1.897 trillion by 2030 •  Over 1,000,000 new jobs for the State •  Central Texas MSA:   $41B in increased spending   $9.7B increase in personal income   85,250 permanent new jobs Source: A Tale of Two States and One Million Jobs by the Perryman Group, 2007 © 2013 E3 Alliance
  9. 9. Demographic and Education Trends and Outcomes © 2013 E3 Alliance
  10. 10. Pop Quiz: Population Changes The Central Texas Low Income student population is growing at about _____ the rate of the overall student population in Texas. A: the same B: twice C: 4 1/2 times D: a gazillion times © 2013 E3 Alliance
  11. 11. Answer is C: Low Income Students are Growing at 4 ½ X the Rate of all Texas Students Texas 20% Central Texas 39% CTX Hispanic 80% CTX Low Income 90% CTX ELL 105% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Population Growth From 2002 to 2012 Source: E3 Alliance analysis of district-level AEIS and United States Census data © 2013 E3 Alliance 120%
  12. 12. Central Texas Income Distribution by School District 10 Years Ago… © 2013 E3 Alliance
  13. 13. …And District Income Levels Last Year © 2013 E3 Alliance
  14. 14. Almost 1 in 3 Central Texas Children Born to Mothers without HS Diplomas 28% Central Texas Overall Source: United Way Capital Area Success by 6, 2009 Indicator Report © 2013 E3 Alliance
  15. 15. Poverty Areas Lack Accredited ECE Centers © 2013 E3 Alliance
  16. 16. Just Over Half of Central Texas Students Are Ready to Succeed in School Kindergarten Readiness, Central Texas 2010 to 2012 Not Ready Not Ready, 47% 50% Source: E3 Alliance analysis of Ready, Set, K! Weighted Data Ready Ready, 53% 50% © 2013 E3 Alliance
  17. 17. TAKS Passing Rate Achievement Gaps Closing 8th Grade Reading TAKS Passing Rates, Central Texas Districts 2003-11 8th Grade Math TAKS Passing Rates, Central Texas Districts 2003-11 100%   Percentage  Who  Met  Minimum  Standard   Percentage  Who  Met  Minimum  Standard   100%   80%   60%   40%   20%   0%   80%   60%   40%   20%   0%   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   Test  Year   Test  Year   Hispanic   African  American   Source: E3 Alliance Analysis of TEA Data White   Low  Income   Hispanic   African  American   White   © 2013 E3 Alliance Low  Income  
  18. 18. Gaps in TAKS Scale Scores Persist 8th Grade Reading TAKS Scale Scores, Central Texas Districts 2003-11 8th Grade Math TAKS Scale Scores, Central Texas Districts 2003-11 2500   2400   2400   Average  TAKS  Score   2600   2500   Average  TAKS  Score   2600   2300   2200   2100   2300   2200   2100   2000   2000   1900   1900   1800   1800   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   Test  Year   Test  Year   Hispanic   African  American   White   Low  Income   Hispanic   African  American   Source: E3 Alliance analysis of TAKS data © 2013 E3 Alliance White   Low  Income  
  19. 19. Pop Quiz: Cost of Drop Outs A conservative estimate of the cost in lost income to Central Texas of one class of drop outs is : A: JPMorgan Chase “London whale” trading fines B: The annual cost of deer crashes in Pennsylvania C: The total investment in the Long Center for Performing Arts D: Annual budget of the UT Athletics Department © 2013 E3 Alliance
  20. 20. A conservative estimate of the cost in lost income to Central Texas of one class of drop outs is: Answer B. is correct $450 million Deer crashes in Pennsylvania cost over $400M each year. We could buy FIVE Long Centers for each class year of drop outs! or we could buy 4 UT Athletics Departments. © 2013 E3 Alliance
  21. 21. One in Four Central Texas Graduates Complete College Within 6 Years of Finishing High School High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institutions in Texas, Central Texas Class of 2005 58% of 12,561 HS Graduates Enrolled Within 1 year 47% Persisted into 2nd Year Persisted into 3rd Year* 40% Persisted into 4th Year** Completed Within 6 Years 35% 27% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Percentage of High School Graduates Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center © 2013 E3 Alliance 100% 21
  22. 22. One in Ten Low Income Graduates Complete College Within 6 Years of Finishing High School Not Low Income High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institutions in Texas, Central Texas Class of 2005 68% 58% Enrolled Within 1 year 51% Persisted into 2nd Year 45% Persisted into 3rd Year* 37% Persisted into 4th Year** Low Income 39% Completed Within 6 Years 27% 20% 16% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Percentage of High School Graduates Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center © 2013 E3 Alliance 100% 22
  23. 23. Unemployment Rates Map to Educational Attainment Unemployment Rate 16 US Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Less than High School Degree Some College or Associate's Degree Source: U.S. Department of Labor 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 High School Degree Bachelor's Degree or higher © 2013 E3 Alliance 2011
  24. 24. What’s the Problem? •  Institutions are disconnected horizontally & vertically •  Great teachers are key – but not well paid, not incented to perform, not staying in the field •  Data often doesn’t exist to understand where the true leverage points and bottlenecks are •  Culture & bureaucracy averse to change •  Adult culture of learning is weak •  As the student population is increasing and becoming harder to serve, we have decreased funding •  Lots of great things happening – but disconnected, inconsistent, competing for funds © 2013 E3 Alliance

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