RESILIENT RISK            MANAGEMENT           Claire Souch, PhD           VP, Model Solutions©2013 Risk Management Soluti...
MODELING          CHALLENGES      • Too many        surprises                                                 OPERATIONS  ...
MODELS IMPROVE          OVER TIME,          BUT          UNCERTAINTY          REMAINS                                     ...
HOW          RESILIENT                                                  Will I fall                                       ...
In the RMS development of catastrophe          THE MARKET                    models, which explicitly acknowledges that   ...
In the Client understanding and use of cat          THE MARKET                                      models          IS CAL...
THE PATHS TO RESILIENT RISK          MANAGEMENT                                           DIAGNOSTIC             UNDER-   ...
RMS –          PROVIDING          INDUSTRY          REFERENCE          VIEW         Build world-class         (and increas...
PROVISION                     RMS REFERENCE          MULTIPLE          VIEWS… IN A          SINGLE, FAST,          AUDITAB...
OPEN                                    EXPOSURE          MODELING          = ACCESS TO          MODEL          COMPONENTS...
UTILISE          MULTIPLE          MODELS  COMPARE MODELS  SIDE BY SIDE  FILL GAPS IN THE RMS  MODEL SUITE                ...
BLEND          MODEL          RESULTS  CHOSE ONE MODEL  OR BLEND MODEL  RESULTS  RMS(one) ENABLES  YOUR BEST PRACTICE     ...
“Risk management, we believe, should             be about lessening the impact of events                      we don’t und...
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Resilient Risk Management

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Claire Souch, VP, Model Solutions at RMS, shares her expert perspective on modeling challenges, resiliency and the path to a resilient risk management strategy.

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Resilient Risk Management

  1. 1. RESILIENT RISK MANAGEMENT Claire Souch, PhD VP, Model Solutions©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  2. 2. MODELING CHALLENGES • Too many surprises OPERATIONS UNDERWRITING PORTFOLIO • Can’t control key MODELS MANAGEMENT assumptions • Lack of insight into drivers of risk • Doesn’t facilitate understanding by all©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  3. 3. MODELS IMPROVE OVER TIME, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS 250 yr. loss uncertainty©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  4. 4. HOW RESILIENT Will I fall off a ARE YOU? cliff? Maximize return - optimize to top of a pinnacle? Minimise regret - search out stable plateaus?©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  5. 5. In the RMS development of catastrophe THE MARKET models, which explicitly acknowledges that IS CALLING FOR A NEW CATASTROPHE RISK IS PARADIGM CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP UNCERTAINTY LEARNING IS ON-GOING ONE SIZE DOESNT ALWAYS FIT ALL©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  6. 6. In the Client understanding and use of cat THE MARKET models IS CALLING FOR A NEW PARADIGM UNDERSTANDING IMPLIED BETS ADAPT QUICKLY TO NEW INFORMATION OWNING A VIEW OF RISK©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  7. 7. THE PATHS TO RESILIENT RISK MANAGEMENT DIAGNOSTIC UNDER- VIEWS AND STANDING SENSITIVITY IMPLIED BETS TESTS POST EVENT, ADAPTING TO INTERIM ONGOING VIEWS, OWN LEARNING EXPERIENCE ADJUSTMENTS OWNING THE ALTERNATIVES VIEW OF RISK OPEN PLATFORM©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  8. 8. RMS – PROVIDING INDUSTRY REFERENCE VIEW Build world-class (and increasingly transparent) models with an official RMS reference point©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  9. 9. PROVISION RMS REFERENCE MULTIPLE VIEWS… IN A SINGLE, FAST, AUDITABLE DIAGNOSTIC “There is no single PLATFORM ADJUSTED correct approach” ABI Industry Good Practice for Catastrophe Modeling, Dec 2011 ALTERNATIVE YOUR OWN©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  10. 10. OPEN EXPOSURE MODELING = ACCESS TO MODEL COMPONENTS HAZARD PLA CONDUCT SENSITIVITY TESTS LEVERAGE YOUR OWN CLAIMS DATA AND RESEARCH LOSS RATES GAIN COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE MAINTAIN AN AUDIT TRAIL VULNERABILITY©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  11. 11. UTILISE MULTIPLE MODELS COMPARE MODELS SIDE BY SIDE FILL GAPS IN THE RMS MODEL SUITE RMS MODELS YOUR OWN IMPORT RESULTS MODELS FROM OTHER MODELS©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  12. 12. BLEND MODEL RESULTS CHOSE ONE MODEL OR BLEND MODEL RESULTS RMS(one) ENABLES YOUR BEST PRACTICE BLEND RESULTS©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
  13. 13. “Risk management, we believe, should be about lessening the impact of events we don’t understand” - Naseem Taleb, Harvard Business Review©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.

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