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The REALTORS® Land Institute and The National Association of REALTORS® are pleased to present the findings of the 2015 LAND MARKET SURVEY. This report is the only one of its kind and contains pertinent details about the current state of the real estate land markets.
The REALTORS® Land Institute and The National Association of REALTORS® are pleased to present the findings of the 2015 LAND MARKET SURVEY. This report is the only one of its kind and contains pertinent details about the current state of the real estate land markets.
1.
REALTORS® Land Institute
February 2015 Land Business Survey
Conducted by the National Association of REALTORS®
Lawrence Yun, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist
Jed Smith, Managing Director, Quantitative Research
Gay Cororaton, Research Economist
March 2015
2.
About the REALTORS® Land Institute-NAR
February 2015 Land Business Survey
• Objective: gather information about the land business for the period July-Dec
2014 and the outlook for Jan-June 2015.
• Survey was conducted from Feb 23 –Mar 17, 2015.
• REALTORS® Land Institute sent the online survey to its 1,000 members plus
approximately 9,500 non-members.
• Responses: 619 responses; approximately the same as in the July 2014 survey
(629 responses); 52 percent were members of the REALTORS® Land Institute.
• Regions 3 (KY, TN, NC SC, GA, AL, MS, FL) and 4 ( KS, MO, AR, LA, OK, TX)
accounted for approximately 54 percent of respondents.
• Survey asked characteristics about the most recent transaction in July-Dec
2014.
• New items.
– Canada, and “International, Excluding Canada” were included as
geographic areas of land practice.
– Price and Sales Outlook for Jan-June 2015.
3.
Regions 3 and 4: Top Respondent Practice Regions
15%
19%
35% 34%
19%
7%
12%
19%
24%
30%
17%
5%
9%
1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1 2 3 4 5 6 Canada Intl,Ex
Canada
NumberofRespondents
Region
Regions Where Most Sales Occur Among Respondents
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
4.
Membership of Respondents
339
431
68
190
294
429
58
177
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
REALTORS® Land Inst. NAR CCIM Other
Numberofrespondents
Professional Memberships of Respondents*
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
*Respondent can identify more than one membership.
5.
Highlights of the REALTORS® Land Institute-NAR
Land Business Survey
• Prices and Sales, Up: July 2014 Survey reported dollar sales
growth at 4 percent, past 12 months. February 2015 Survey
reports 8 percent sales growth in last 6 months, ending December
2014.
• Outlook, first half of 2015: Strong land sales with modest price
growth.
– 87 percent expect “about the same” to “stronger” growth in sales.
– Commercial, Recreation, Development , and Other (includes
residential) are strongest markets.
– 2.5 percent price growth for first part of 2015, compared to 8 percent
price growth, last part of 2014.
• Major practice areas: Agricultural (63 percent), Recreation (55
percent), and Development (48 percent).
• Individuals are major buyers (61%), followed by investors (23%).
7.
Types of Land Practice Among Respondents
Multiple Responses as Appropriate
69%
33%
41%
59%
43% 45%
15%
63%
26%
41%
55%
48%
36%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Percentofrespondents
Types of Land Practice Focuses On
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
*Other includes residential , equine, coastal/beach, hobby farms
8.
Land Prices Increased Across All Types
4%
3%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4% 4%
7% 7%
8%
8%
9%
9%
8% 8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Percentchange
Median Percent Change in the Price of Land ($/acre) in Past 6 Months*
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
* July-Dec 2014 compared to the same period in 2013
9.
Dollar Sales Volume Increased Across All Types
4%
3%
5%
4%
5% 5%
6%
4%
7%
8%
8%
9% 9% 9% 9%
8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Percentchange
Median Percent Change in Dollar Sales in Past 6 Months*
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
* July-Dec 2014 compared to the same period in 2013
10.
Price Outlook: Median Expected Annual Percent
Change in Prices ($/acre) for Jan-June 2015
1.5%
2.1%
2.8%
2.7%
3.3%
2.9%
3.2%
2.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Percentchange
Median Expected Change in Price of Land ($/acre) for Jan-June 2015
Compared to Same Period in 2014
11.
Price Outlook: Generally Modest Growth, But With
Expectations of Price Decrease and Increase for Jan-June 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
worse than
-20%
-20% to -
10%
-10% to -
5%
-5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to
20%
over 20%
Percentdistribution,byTypeofLand
Distribution of Expected Change in Price of Land ($/acre) for
Jan-June 2015 Compared to Same Period in 2014
Agricultural Timber Ranch Recreation
Development Commercial Other All
12.
Sales Outlook for Jan-June 2015: 87 Percent Expect
“About the Same” to “Stronger” Growth
22%
13% 13% 8% 9% 12%
5%
13%
51%
61% 56%
54% 51% 52%
55%
54%
27% 26%
31% 38% 39% 36% 41%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Outlook for Dollar Sales in Jan-June 2015
Weaker About the Same Stronger
13.
Characteristics of Land Sales*
* Based on the most recent transaction in July-Dec 2014
14.
Regions 3 and 4 Account for Most of Land Sold
11%
13%
30%
26%
15%
5%
10.0%
16.9%
21.9%
28.3%
13.6%
3.8%
5.0%
0.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1 2 3 4 5 6 Canada Intl,Ex
Canada
Percentofrespondents
Region
Location of Land Most Recently Sold
(Percent distribution)
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
15.
Agriculture and Recreation are Major Types of
Land Sold
10%
15%
11%
13%
21%
13%
10%
8%8%
17%
7%
14%
23%
15%
7%
10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Percentdistributionofresponses
Type of Land Most Recently Sold by Respondent
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
16.
Types of Land Recently Sold by Respondents in Regions*
13%
61%
12%
20% 21% 25% 24%
13%
6%
28%
31%
18% 6% 10%
23%
13%
26%
29%
29%
13% 5%
33%
7%
20%
8%
14%
13% 29%
50%
3%
4% 8% 5%
5%
19%
19% 50%
18%
10% 7% 6%
13%
25%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 Canada Intl,Ex
Canada
Percentdistributionbyregion
Type of Land Most Recently Sold in Past 6 Months
(July-Dec 2014) by Region*
Other
Commercial
Development
Recreation
Timber/Ranch
Agriculture
*Results for Region 6 and International- Excluding Canada need to be taken with caution; 16 respondents
for R6 and 2 respondents for International – Excluding Canada.
17.
Acreage Sold by Region
44
98
82
104
129
64
81
20
80
103
113
61
20 20
12
80
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1 2 3 4 5 6 Canada Intl,Ex
Canada
All
Acres
Median Acres Based on Most Recent Land Sold, By Region
July 2014 Survey 2015Feb Survey
18.
Acreage Sold By Type of Land
160
117
202
294
81
17
5
23
81
250
130
220
150
88
10 8 18
80
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Acres Median Acres Based on Most Recent Land,
By Type of Land
July 2014 Survey 2015Feb Survey
19.
Median Price Per Acre By Region: In the U.S., Regions
5 & 6 Had Highest Price Increase
$6,666
$9,000
$4,000
$4,000
$7,450
$5,000
$5,125
$8,250
$8,275
$4,326
$4,000
$15,000
$23,000
$35,000
$80,000
$6,200
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000
1
2
3
4
5
6
Canada
Intl,Ex Canada
All
Median Price Per Acre
Median Price Per Acre Based on Most Recent Land Sales , By Region
2015Feb Survey July 2014 Survey
20.
Median Price Per Acre By Type of Land: Commercial
and Development Had Highest Price Increase
$9,125
$6,000
$5,500
$2,075
$4,150
$3,000
$40,000
$96,875
$5,125
$9,250
$6,000
$5,688
$1,950
$3,250
$3,100
$56,500
$100,000
$6,200
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000
Other
Agri-irrig
Agri-non-irrig
Timber
Ranch
Recreation
Development
Commercial
All
Median Price Per Acre
Median Price Per Acre Based on Most Recent Land Sales, By Type of Land
2015Feb Survey July 2014 Survey
21.
Individuals/Families: The Major Buyers
Multiple Responses As Appropriate
58%
17%
10%
17%
1%
6%
61%
15%
9%
23%
3% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Percentofrespondents
Type of Buyer in Most Recent Land Sale Transaction
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
22.
Individuals/Families: Recreation Land Was Major
Preference
8%
16%
10%
17%
32%
5%
2%
12%
9%
11%
6%
17%
31%
10%
2%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
PercentofIndividuals/FamiliesBuyers
Type of Land Bought by Individual Buyers
July 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey
23.
Corporate Buyers: Development and Commercial
Were Major Preferences
4%
10%
17%
6%
4%
30%
26%
3%
9%
7%
5%
12%
11%
28%
25%
4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
PercentofCorporateBuyers
Type of Land Bought by Corporate Buyers
July 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey
24.
Expansion Farmers: Non-irrigated Agriculture Land
Was Major Preference
30%
55%
0%
13%
0% 0% 0%
3%
11%
60%
3%
17%
3%
0%
3% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
PercentofExpansionFarmersBuyers
Type of Land Bought by Expansion Farmer Buyers
July 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey
25.
Investor Buyers: Non-irrigated Agriculture and
Development Land Were Major Preferences
9%
13%
20%
9%
13%
17%
14%
6%
4%
29%
14%
12%
10%
21%
5%
4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
PercentofInvestorBuyers
Type of Land Bought by Investor Buyers
July 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey
26.
Foreign and Other Buyers: Development and
Commercial Land Were Major Preferences
11%
15%
7%
18%
13%
18%
9% 9%
10%
7%
3% 3% 3%
31%
21% 21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
PercentofForeignandOtherBuyers
Type of Land Bought by Foreign and Other Buyers
July 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey
27.
Individuals/Families: The Major Sellers
Multiple Responses As Appropriate
72%
23%
7%
74%
14%
3%
12%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
PercentofRespondents
Type of Seller in the Most Recent Land Sales*
2014Jul Survey 2014Jul Survey
28.
Individuals/Families: Sold Mostly Recreation
and Non-Irrigated Agricultural Land
10%
18%
11%
14%
22%
8% 7%
9%9%
19%
6%
16%
24%
12%
4%
10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
PercentofIndividuals/FamiliesSellers
Type of Land Most Recently Sold by
Individual/Family Sellers
July 2014 Survey Feb 2014 Survey
29.
Corporate/Partnerships: Sold Mostly
Development Land
6%
5%
17%
12%
17%
24%
14%
5%5%
9% 9%
13%
18%
25%
11%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
PercentofCorporate/PartnershipsSellers
Type of Land Most Recently Sold by Corporations/Partnerships
30.
Days on Market
Agricultural Land Sold More Quickly. Commercial Land Took the Longest.
60
73
120
153
150
123
237
180
120
104
60
105
180
149 150
212
150
120
0
50
100
150
200
250
DaysonMarket
Median Days on Market of Most Recent Land Sales ,
By Type of Land
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
31.
Mineral Rights Conveyed in 61 Percent of
Transactions
60% 61%
26% 25%
14% 14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
PercentofRespondents
Did Mineral Rights Convey?
Not Applicable
No
Yes
32.
Regions 2 and 3: Highest Share of Land Sales Where
Mineral Rights Conveyed to Total Region’s Land Sales
53%
76%
68%
53% 51%
57%
60%
68%
75%
71%
56% 53%
50%
21%
0%
61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1 2 3 4 5 6 Canada Intl,Ex
Canada
All
Percentsharetoregion'ssales
Land Sales Where Mineral Rights Conveyed, As Percent of Sales of
the Region
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
33.
Land Sales Where Mineral Rights Conveyed, As
Percent of Land Sales, by Type
75% 77%
67%
57%
60%
37%
49%
53%
60%
70%
76% 72%
55%
71%
48%
37%
44%
61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Percentsharetolandsales,bytype
Land Sales Where Mineral Rights Conveyed, As Percent of Sales
by Type of Land
34.
Regions 5 and 6: Highest Share of Irrigated Land Sales
Relative to Total Region’s Land Sales
2%
5%
11%
9%
44%
19%
14%
8% 7%
9% 9%
37%
31%
21%
50%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1 2 3 4 5 6 Canada Intl,Ex
Canada
All
Percentshare
Percent of Irrigated Land Sales to Region's Sales
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
35.
On Average, Buyers Financed 32 Percent of the Value of the
Transaction
(68 percent down payment)
30%
33%
21%
38%
32% 31%
28%
31% 31%
33% 34%
28% 29%
37%
29%
23%
35%
32%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Percentofthelandtransactionvaluefinanced
Average Percent of the the Value of the Transaction Thas Was
Financed, By Type of Land
2014Jul Survey 2015Feb Survey
36.
Major Conclusions
• Strong land market in July-Dec 2014, with sales growth at
8 percent.
• About 87 percent of respondents expect land sales to be
“about the same” or “stronger” in Jan-June 2015, with
prices growing at a modest pace of 2.5 percent.
• Recreation, Development, Commercial , and Other
(includes residential) land markets are expected to be the
strongest markets in Jan-June 2015 .
• Families/individuals still bulk of buyers (61 percent),
followed by investors (23 percent).
• Most land sold was Agriculture (25 percent), Recreation
(23 percent), and Development (15 percent).
37.
Major Conclusions
• Agriculture land typically sold with 3 months, while
Commercial land sold within 9 months.
• Regions 2 and 3 had highest share of the region’s
transactions where mineral rights conveyed.
• Regions 5 and 6 had highest share of the region’s
sales for irrigated land; also, about half of land sold
internationally (except Canada) was irrigated .
• On average, about 32 percent of the value of the
transaction was financed (68 percent down payment).