2015 Land Markets Survey | REALTORS Land Institute & NAR

REALTORS® Land Institute
October 2015 Land Business Survey
Lawrence Yun, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist
Danielle Hale, Managing Director, Housing Research
Gay Cororaton, Research Economist
January 2016
Conducted by the Research Division of the National Association of REALTORS®

About the REALTORS® Land Institute
October 2015 Land Business Survey
• Objective: gather information about the land business for the
reference period October 2014–September 2015 and the outlook
for October 2015–September 2016.
• Market trends are based on the last sale of the respondent that
occurred during the reference period.
• REALTORS® Land Institute sent the online survey to its
approximately 1,200 members plus approximately 21,800 non-
members from October 21–November 26, 2015.
• There were 614 respondents, approximately the same as in the
July 2014 survey (629 responses) and the February 2015 survey
(619 responses). To correct for under- and over-response across
regions and countries, NAR weighted the sample responses by a
weight factor based on a comparison of the regional distribution
of responses against the data provided by REALTORS® Land
Institute (see Technical Appendix, last page).

Membership Among Respondents
63%
80%
13%
35%
52%
76%
10%
31%
61%
70%
8%
21%
REALTORS® Land
Institute
NAR CCIM Other
Professional Membership of Respondents
(Percent of respondents*)
Jul 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey
*Multiple responses allowed so percent shares will not sum up to 100 percent during survey
period.

Highlights of the October 2014 Land Business Survey
• Prices of land sold in the U.S.
– Up by three percent in the reference period October 2014-September
2015 compared to their year-ago levels.
– Commercial land prices rose the fastest at five percent.
– Residential land prices were up by three percent.
– Agricultural land prices were up by one percent.
• Prices of land sold outside the U.S. (mainly, Canada)
– Up by two percent in the reference period October 2014–September
2015 compared to their year-ago levels.
– Residential land prices rose strongly at eight percent.
– Commercial land prices were up by five percent.
– Agricultural land prices were up by two percent.

• Dollar volume of land sold in the U.S
– Up by three percent in the reference period October 2014-September
2015 compared to year-ago levels.
– Residential land sales volume was up by four percent.
– Commercial land sales volume rose three percent.
– Agricultural land sales volume rose two percent.
• Dollar volume of land sold outside the U.S. (mainly, Canada)
– Up by four percent in the reference period October 2014–September
2015 compared to year-ago levels.
– Residential sales volume increased eleven percent.
– Commercial sales volume rose seven percent.
– Agriculture sales volume was up three percent.

• Price Outlook of U.S. Land Sales by September 2016
compared to September 2015
– Modest growth of two percent across all land types.
– Stronger price growth in brownfield development of six percent.
– Residential land prices expected to increase by four percent.
• Dollar Volume Outlook for U.S. Land Sales
– 53 percent of respondents expect dollar volume to remain “about the
same,” 31 percent expect “stronger” growth, and 15 percent expect
“weaker” growth.

• Major practice areas in the U.S. among respondents:
Agricultural (64 percent), Residential (56 percent), and
Recreation (50 percent).
• Major practice areas outside the U.S. among respondents:
Residential (76 percent) and Commercial (62 percent).
• Regions 1 and 5 accounted for nearly 50 percent of most
recent land sales
• Individuals are major buyers in the U.S. among
respondents:(60 percent), followed by investors (20 percent).
• Median days on market for U.S. land sales: 100 days;
residential land also typically sold within 100 days.

• Irrigated sales accounted for 16 percent of U.S. land sales;
nearly half of irrigated sales were in Region 5.
• Mineral rights conveyed in 61 percent of U.S. land sales across
the regions.
• In several regions, cash purchases were common; on average,
buyers financed 35 percent of the value of the property (or
made a 65 percent downpayment). Among land sales in the
U.S., irrigated agriculture land, development, and other non-
residential land were typically financed.

Price of Land Sold in the U.S. Increased Across
All Types
1%
5%
2%
3%
3% 3% 3%
2%
3%
3%
Median Percent Change in the Price of Land Sold in the U.S. ($/acre) in
September 2015 from Levels One Year Ago

Prices of Land Sold Outside the U.S.* Rose Strongly
2%
5%
8%
-1%
2%
Agriculture Commercial Residential All other types All
Median Percent Change in the Price of Land Sold Outside the U.S.* ($/acre)
in September 2015 from Levels One Year Ago
* Includes Canada, Latin America/Caribbean, and Other International.

Dollar Volume of U.S. Land Sales Increased
Across All Types
2%
3%
1%
2% 2% 2%
4%
3% 3% 3%
Median Percent Change in the Dollar Volume of Land Sold in the U.S. from
October 2014-September 2015 Compared to the Previous 12 Months

Dollar Volume of Residential and Commercial Land
Sales Outside the U.S.* Rose Strongly
3%
7%
11%
0%
4%
Agriculture Commercial Residential All other types All
Median Percent Change in the Dollar Volume of Land Sold Outside the
U.S.* from October 2014-September 2015 Compared to the Previous 12
Months
*Includes Canada, Latin America/Caribbean, and Other International.

Price Outlook for U.S. Land Sales By September 2016
Compared to September 2015
1%
3%
6%
3%
2%
3%
4%
2%
2%
2%
Median Expected Change in Price of Land ($/acre) By September 2016
Compared to Prices in September 2015

Dollar Volume for U.S. Land Sales is Generally
Expected to be the Same or Stronger
20%
10%
21% 15% 16% 16% 9%
19% 16% 15%
58%
53%
61% 66% 56% 48%
44%
50%
75%
53%
22%
37%
18% 19% 28%
35%
48%
30%
9%
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Outlook for Sales Dollar Volume in September 2016 vs. September 2015
Weaker About the Same Stronger

Characteristics of Land Sales*
* Based on respondents’ most recent land sales in October 2014-September
2015.

Agricultural, Residential, and Recreation: Major
Areas of Land Practice in the U.S.
64%
28%
3%
11%
31%
50%
56%
31%
6%
Land Practice in the U.S.
(Percent of respondents*)
*Multiple responses allowed, so percent shares will not sum to 100 percent.

Residential and Commercial: Major Areas of Land
Practice Outside the U.S.*
28%
62%
7%
11% 11% 10%
76%
5%
10%
Land Practice Outside the U.S.*
(Percent of respondents**)
** Multiple responses allowed, so percent shares will not sum up to 100 percent.

Regions 1, 3, and 5 Accounted for Most of the Land
Practice in the U.S.
33%
13%
20%
11%
18%
5%
Main Region of Practice in the U.S.

Regions 1, 3, and 5 Accounted for Most of
Respondent’s Recent Land Sold in the U.S.
29%
14%
17% 16%
20%
3%
Location of Most Recent Land Sold from October 2014-September 2015
(Percent distribution)

Residential, Agriculture, and Recreation Lands
Accounted for Most of the Land Sold in the U.S.
7%
18%
7%
0%
1%
8%
21%
29%
7%
2%
Type of Most Recent Land Sold in the U.S.
from October 2014-September 2015

Residential Land Accounted for Most of the Land
Sold Outside the U.S.*
1%
10%
18%
1% 4%
8%
1%
56%
0%
Type of Most Recent Land Sold Outside the U.S.*
from October 2014-September 2015

Types of Land Sold, By Region*
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Type of Most Recent Land Sold from October 2014–September 2015,
By Region*
(Percent distribution by region)
Agriculture Commercial/Development Ranch Recreation Residential Timber Other
*In this slide, Other International includes Latin America/Caribbean.

Land Sold in the U.S. Was Typically of Lower Price
Compared to Canada
$6,750 $8,200
$3,500 $3,000
$6,560
$12,750
$50,000
$6,000
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Canada All
Median Price of Most Recent Land Sold from October 2014-September
2015, By Region
*Latin America/Caribbean and Other International are included in All but are not broken out separately.

Median Price of Most Recent Land Sold in the U.S.
$9,860 $6,250
$92,857
$2,350 $2,545
$13,500
$1,999 $5,000
Median Price of Most Recent Land Sold in the U.S.* from October 2014-
September 2015
*Development and Other Land are included in All but are not broken out separately.

Land Sold More Quickly in Regions 2 and 6
100
62
120
90
160
78
105
90
Median Days on Market of Most Recent Land Sold from
October 2014-September 2015, By Region*

Agricultural Lands Sold Most Quickly in the U.S.
45
60
180
126 120
100
180
100
Median Days on Market of Most Recent Land Sold in the U.S. from October
2014-September 2015, By Type of Land*

Lands Sold in Region 2, 3, and 4 Were Typically Larger
42
80
91
80
35
20
12
35
Median Acres Based on Most Recent Land Sold
from October 2014-September 2015, By Region*
*Latin America/Caribbean and Other International are included in All but are not broken out separately..

Agriculture, Ranch, and Timber Typically Had the Largest
Acreage of Lands Sold in the U.S.
187
120
14
160
100
8
141
65
Median Acres Based on Most Recent Land Sold
From October 2014-September 2015 in the U.S., By Type of Land*

Approximately 16 Percent of U.S. Land Sales Were
Irrigated Land
86% 87% 84%
14% 13% 16%
Irrigated Land Sales in the U.S. Based on the Most Recent Sales
From October 2014-September 2015
No/Not Applicable Yes

Nearly Half of Irrigated Land Sales in the U.S. Were
in Region 5
2%
6%
17%
5%
10%
4%
22%
16%
6%
17%
20%
15%
47%
38%
48%
7%
10% 11%
Distribution of Irrigated Land Sales in the U.S., Based on Most Recent
Transactions from October 2014-September 2015
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6

Mineral Rights Conveyed in 61 Percent of Land Sales
in the U.S.
60% 64% 61%
40% 36% 39%
July 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey
Mineral Rights Conveyed in Land Sales in the U.S. Based on Most Recent
Transactions from October 2014-September 2015
Yes No/Not Applicable

Mineral Rights Conveyed in Land Sales Across the
U.S., But Less So in Region 6
10% 11%
25%
17%
22%
18%
32%
26%
22%
24%
27%
19%
13%
11%
14%
5%
3% 2%
July 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey
Distribution of Land Sales Where Mineral Rights Conveyed Based on Most
Recent Transactions from October 2014-September 2015
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6

Individuals/Families were the Major Buyers of
Recent Land Transactions In and Outside the U.S.
58%
17%
10%
17%
1%
6%
61%
15%
9%
23%
3% 5%
55%
17%
7%
28%
4% 1%
Type of Buyer in Most Recent Land Sale Transaction*
(As percent of respondents who had a sale)
*Will not sum to 100% because respondent can choose more than one type.

Individual/Families Were the Major Buyers of Land
in the U.S.
60%
16%
10%
20%
1% 2%
Type of U.S. Buyer for the Most Recent Land Sales*
*Will not sum to 100% because respondent can choose more than one type.

Individuals/Family Buyers in the U.S.: Residential
and Recreation Land Were Major Preferences
5%
13%
3%
1% 0%
9%
30%
32%
5%
2%
Type of Land Bought in the U.S. by Individual Buyers

Corporate Buyers in the U.S.: Commercial Land Was
the Top Preference
8%
21%
24%
0%
1%
6%
3%
21%
13%
4%
Type of Land Bought in the U.S. by Corporate Buyers

Expansion Farmers in the U.S.: Irrigated Agriculture
Land Was Major Preference
21%
56%
0%
3%
0%
5% 6%
8%
2%
0%
Type of Land Bought in the U.S. by Expansion Farmer Buyers

Investor Buyers in the U.S.: Residential Land was the
Top Preference
6%
18%
12%
0%
3%
2%
20%
23%
13%
3%
Type of Land Bought by Investor Buyers

Foreign Buyers Purchasing in the U.S.: Residential
Land Was Major Preference
9%
18% 18%
36%
18%
Agriculture, irrigated Agriculture, non-
irrigated
Development,
greenfield
Residential Other
Type of Land Bought by Foreign Buyers

In Several Regions, Cash Purchases are Common; On
Average Buyers Financed 35 Percent of the Value of
the Property (65 Percent Downpayment)
0%
20%
0%
40%
0%
30%
0%
20%
29%
35%
25%
39%
22%
36%
52%
35%
Percent of the Value of the Most Recent Land Purchase That was
Financed, By Region*
Median Percent Financing Average Percent Financing

Individual/Families Were Also the Major Sellers of
Land in the U.S.
45%
7%
2%
7%
0%
3%
Type of Seller in the Most Recent Land Sale in the U.S.*
(As percent of respondents who had a sale)
* Will not sum to 100 percent because respondent can choose more than one type.

Conclusions
• There was strong price and sales growth in commercial and
residential land sales in both U.S. and non-U.S. markets in
October 2014-September 2015 compared to the previous 12-
month period.
• Respondents generally expect conditions to “stay the same”
through September 2016.
• Agriculture, residential, and recreation land were primary
types of land sold in the U.S.; meanwhile, residential and
commercial land were major types of land sold outside the
United States.

Technical Appendix
• The REALTORS® Land Institute sent the October 2015 survey to 1,218 REALTORS® Land
Institute members and 21,838 non-members, a total of 23,056. There were 614
respondents, a response rate of 2.7 percent. Regions 3 and 4 were the top regions of practice
among the respondents.

Technical Appendix
• The graph below shows the distribution across the U.S. regions and countries of the target
participants to the distribution of respondents. The chart shows an under-response in Region
1, Canada, Latin America/Caribbean, and Other International and an over-response in
Regions 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. For example, 17 percent of the 23,056 target participants were from
Region 1, but only 8 percent responded to the survey, indicating an under-response.

Technical Appendix
• To align the distribution across regions of the sample to the distribution across regions of the
target population, each respondent was given a weight factor based on the respondent’s
region of primary business which the respondent self-identified in the survey. The weight is
calculated as:
Weight of region i = percent share of region i based on the target distribution
percent share of region i based on the sample distribution
• In cases of “under-response” as in Region 1, the weight will be greater than 1, and in cases of
“over-response” as in Region 2, the weight will be less than 1. For example, the weight for
Region 1 is 2.03 (17 percent divided by 8 percent), and the weight for Region 2 is 0.44 ( 7
percent divided by 16 percent).
• Each response is then multiplied by the appropriate weight factor based on the respondent’s
indicated region of primary business.
Weight Factors Used in the October 2015 Survey
Region 1 2.04
Region 2 0.44
Region 3 0.52
Region 4 0.26
Region 5 0.63
Region 6 0.43
Canada 2.04
Latin America/Carribean 6.82
Other international 12.54

The REALTORS® Land Institute is a membership organization created for and by land experts, dedicated to
building knowledge, building relationships, and building business for its members--the extraordinary real estate
professionals--who broker, lease, sell, develop, and manage our most precious resource: the land.
The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association,
representing over 1 million members, including NAR’s institutes, societies, and councils, involved in all aspects
of the real estate industry.
The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® Research Division collects and disseminates timely, accurate, and
comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic analysis in order to inform and engage members,
consumers, policy makers, and the media in a professional and accessible manner.
REALTORS® Land Institute
430 N. Michigan Avenue
Chicago, IL 60611
United States
Phone: 800-441-5263
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®
Research Division
500 New Jersey Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20001
Phone: 202-383-1000

2015 Land Markets Survey | REALTORS Land Institute & NAR

2015 Land Markets Survey | REALTORS Land Institute & NAR

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