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Arthur Goldstuck

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Arthur Goldstuck

  1. 1. Why the digital going is good in bad times By Arthur Goldstuck Silver Sponsors
  2. 2. A once upon a time story  1997 – a little start-up: “You are destroying the price structure of the industry”
  3. 3. There’s always someone trying to make too much money
  4. 4. Opportunity 1: The digital revolution levels the playing fields
  5. 5. A once upon a time story  1997 – a little start-up: “You are destroying the price structure of the industry”  2000 – part of a listed group: “What you guys are doing is passé”
  6. 6. The corporation regards “the digital guy” as an oddity
  7. 7. Opportunity 2: Instead of a digital mascot, become a digital watchdog
  8. 8. A once upon a time story  1997 – a little start-up: “You are destroying the price structure of the industry”  2000 – part of a listed group: “What you guys are doing is passé”  2005 – Declaring the mobile subscriber base inflated: “Those close to the industry have known about this for a long time”
  9. 9. Then why didn’t you SAY something?!
  10. 10. Opportunity 3: Much needs to be said and done that’s not being said and done
  11. 11. Just yesterday… A reporter asked me if I had a graph of cellphone growth. “Yes, of course!” But I didn’t have one, and nor did anyone else. How could we all have missed something so damn obvious? What a glaring gap in the knowledge base! I didn’t sleep last night.
  12. 12. And now another gap is filled… Blank slide style for slides that require no heading.
  13. 13. 68% of South Africans are locked into that curve.
  14. 14. Opportunity 4 – 71: The networks need all the help they can get
  15. 15. Opportunity 72: The network’s clients want protection from the network
  16. 16. Yesterday it could have been anyone getting that cellular call It happened to be us this time. But month after month we come across huge gaps in the digital knowledge base. And people who would pay us good virtual money if we could fill it for them. Yesterday. So much data, so little time
  17. 17. For Example… How many SMSs are sent daily? Monthly? Annually? The media would have been eating out of your hands last week if you had that at your fingertips. It’s all publicly available, but like raking leaves when the South Easter is at it. Come inside, there’s plenty room.
  18. 18. Opportunity 73 – 85: You can be Mr SMS. Or Ms Twitter (too late!). Or a dozen other thought leaderships.
  19. 19. And look what’s coming next
  20. 20. Fully connected, at last Blank slide style for slides that require no heading. Shipping routes of the world, mid-19th Century. Oxford history of the British Empire
  21. 21. Behold the broadband culture Total unique broadband users in SA, 2003-2008 1 101 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 668 000 Blank slide style for slides that require no heading. 800 000 600 000 323 000 400 000 160 000 15 700 51 500 200 000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  22. 22. The death of dial-up Blank slide style for slides that require no heading.
  23. 23. The cables are coming… Blank slide style for slides that require no heading.
  24. 24. Exponential bandwidth increase Capacity of African undersea cables Gb/s 10530 10530 10530 Blank slide style for slides that require no heading. 5650 2330 80 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  25. 25. Opportunity 86 – 87: Mapping the possibilities of both connectivity and connectedness
  26. 26. SMEs move to broadband Blank slide style for slides that require no heading.
  27. 27. Opportunity 88: SMEs and consumers are ready for what broadband can do FOR them, but not for what they can do WITH it.
  28. 28. The Cellular base  One SIM card for every South African  Three phones for every 4 South Africans  Media hype:10-m cellular Internet users (Don’t confuse data with Internet)  And 10-million South Africans on Mxit  This year: ½ million using phones as primary Internet access device
  29. 29. Opportunity 89: Cellphones are great ... as phones. 34- million people need help to turn them into tools.
  30. 30. A powerful Internet economy Blank slide style for slides that require no heading.
  31. 31. Blank slide style for slides that require no heading.
  32. 32. Opportunity 90: Prepare for 2013, but meanwhile, help educate the newcomers
  33. 33. Is it evil to destroy the newspaper?
  34. 34. The global picture Online adspend growth rate comparison 2005 2006 2007 2008 61% 60% 60% 54% Blank slide style for slides that require no heading. 45% 38% 34% 32% 35% 27% 30% 26% 27% 24% 25% 11% USA Canada Australia SA
  35. 35. Social media lives up to promise Blank slide style for slides that require no heading.
  36. 36. Opportunity 91 – 93: Mobile content MUST boom. So must video, and the integration of social networks.
  37. 37. Blank slide style for slides that require no heading.
  38. 38. Opportunity 94 – 95: Wikis and widgets will flourish, the former for content kings, the latter for developers.
  39. 39. Watch out for the curve Blank slide style for slides that require no heading.
  40. 40. 2018: the need for speed²  Fibre to the home – a residential reality  True video-conferencing – home and work  Real-time speed monitoring – in your car  Cash will cost – towards a smartcard society  Content will be free – free from platform, that is
  41. 41. Opportunity 96-100: Managing speed of technology, of contact, of networking, of transacting, of information.
  42. 42. The digital curves are all on the rise…
  43. 43. FINALLY, THE INFORMATION ECONOMY IS REAL. JOIN IT.

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