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Elecciones usa y politica online

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Elecciones usa y politica online

  1. 1. De la tecnología de lapolítica a la política de latecnología
  2. 2. Elecciones EE.UU 2008: Un cambio de ciclo o una perfecta maquina electoral- Ciclos de dominio de 40 años, donde más del 70% de los Presidentes son del mismo partido político.- 1828, 1860, 1896, 1930, 1968…- Suponen un cambio en las coaliciones (geográficas, de clases….), una modificación demográfica con la participación de un grupo que hasta entonces no lo hacía, y la utilización de modificaciones tecnológicas.- Idealistas y realistas. Sin vinculación de una u otra con los partidos.
  3. 3. Elecciones EE.UU Mapas electorales 2008
  4. 4. Elecciones EE.UU Mapas Resultados elecciones al congreso 2010 239 - 184
  5. 5. Elecciones EE.UU La política de las tecnologías Las tecnologías afectan no sólo a la financiación o al número de personas a las que se llega. Afecta al ritmo de los mensajes, al tono de los mismos, a la participación…. Online se sienta a la mesa.
  6. 6. Elecciones EE.UU 1.Fragmentación y canalización, narrativa y discursos segmentados
  7. 7. Elecciones EE.UU 1. Fragmentación y canalización, narrativa y discursos segmentados Autoorganización
  8. 8. Elecciones EE.UU 1. Fragmentación y canalización, narrativa y discursos segmentados Multi-intereses: - coalición feminista, sindicatos, minorias movimientos raciales, campaña territorial vs campaña nacional
  9. 9. Elecciones EE.UU Censo 2012
  10. 10. Elecciones EE.UU 1. Fragmentación y canalización, narrativa y discursos segmentados Baja adscripción partidista
  11. 11. Elecciones EE.UU 2. Polarización
  12. 12. Elecciones EE.UU 2. Polarización 2 bloques, campaña negativa, falta de propuestas.
  13. 13. Elecciones EE.UU 2. Polarización Baja participación
  14. 14. Elecciones EE.UU 2. Polarización “ Turnout dropped by 7.9 million voters, falling to 123.6 million this year from 131.5 million in 2008. This is the first decline in a presidential election in 16 years. Only 51.3% of the voting-age population went to the polls”.
  15. 15. Elecciones EE.UU 3. Nuevos tiempos, nuevos actores Respuestas online y en tiempo real
  16. 16. Elecciones EE.UU 3. Nuevos tiempos, nuevos actores A esto la campaña de Obama respondió con este spot:
  17. 17. Elecciones EE.UU 3. Nuevos tiempos, nuevos actores In a world of Twitter, YouTube and cable TV, the cliché that "if youre responding, youre losing" is dead. Republican campaigns need to get better at responding, setting the record straight, and bending the argument back toward their narrative.
  18. 18. Elecciones EE.UU 3. Nuevos tiempos, nuevos actores Spin twittero, aplausos...
  19. 19. Elecciones EE.UU 3. Nuevos tiempos, nuevos actores Nate silver
  20. 20. Elecciones EE.UU 3. Nuevos tiempos, nuevos actores Fact checkings
  21. 21. Elecciones EE.UU 3. Nuevos tiempos, nuevos actores Más dinero del que se puede gastar “Future conventions should be held as early as late June”.
  22. 22. Elecciones EE.UU 4. El poder de la imagen. Los gestos frente a realidades. 2012. 850.000 votos más para Obama. 71% vs 67% en 2008
  23. 23. Elecciones EE.UU 5. Demografía . “Millenials (18-29). SMS, compartir. 2008, Obama 66 % 2012, Obama 60 %. (1.5 millón menos) 1.1 million más para Romney
  24. 24. Elecciones EE.UU Resultados electorales 2012 Mapa de presidencia Liderazgo por estados
  25. 25. Elecciones EE.UU 6. El partido de la gente Realineación cívica (similar a 1932), los demócratas llevan bastante ventaja. - Mayor confianza en las instituciones y mayor papel del Estado -Identificación con los partidos políticos, menos partidos independientes. - Mayor participación electoral. El descenso de la participación de este año que vuelve a niveles de 2004 plantea que quizás no todo está decidido. Liderazgo y propuesta: Reconstruir narrativa, reconstruir liderazgo que responda a la fragmentación, supere la polarización y recupere a los Perot para la política

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