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Campaign 2011

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Campaign 2011

  1. 1. SPANISH GENERAL ELECTIONS #20N George Washington University @rafarubio @dogcomunicacion
  2. 2. THE “GROUND RULES”
  3. 3. Spanish electoral systemo Parliamentary System: - Head of State / Head of Government - Bicameral Congress - Indirect democratic system - Non-proportional system: Law DHonto Provincial constituencies (50)
  4. 4. Non-governmental powers Church Unions Social movements Media (15M)
  5. 5. Major elected offices European National Regional LocalReelection Allowed, undefined.Percentage limite on presidential elections NOImportance of Poitical Parties HighHow do parties select their candidates? ¿? Internal elections without opositionVoting Non mandatoryElection for: Congress SenateParties funding Mainly from the government and affiliatesCampaigns limits (time, money) 15 days. Depending to the number of votes
  6. 6. POLITICAL CLIMATE
  7. 7. Municipal results2007 2011
  8. 8. Regional results2007 2011
  9. 9. Congress participation 1977-2008
  10. 10. Regional vote evolution
  11. 11. Political contexto International crisis (Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Italy) – Unemployed (20%- 5.000.000) – Increasing risk rate. – Abstainers – Desilusión
  12. 12. Unemployment 2008-2012
  13. 13. Unemployment Hiding information
  14. 14. Elections date movedto 11/20 (anounced 29/07) Nothing matters. Neither the country, nor the institutions, the people, nothing… The important things are the personal rates, ‘the box’ (banks)…. And not this one precisely. The elections were advanced 4 months, the Institutionallity sets back 200 years.
  15. 15. CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES AND TACTICS
  16. 16. Mariano Rajoy Breyo Politically experienced.o 8 years in opposition.o Party calm after major crises.o Favorable surveys but assessment below 5.
  17. 17. Alfredo Pérez Rubalcabao Clever and Machiavellian fame.o Zapatero’s Vice President and Minister of Interior.o Felipe Gonzalez’s Minister and spokesman.
  18. 18. 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 0.00% 5.00% Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 PP Oct-07Voting Intention evolution 2004-2012. (Source: CIS) Jan-08 PSOE Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Voting Intention Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
  19. 19. (Join the change)o The traditional campaign, avoiding the verdict.o The change (poster and slogan) despite being often repeated.o No big promises.o No appearances in the media.
  20. 20. (Fight for what you want)o No strategy.o Agresive campaigno Alfredo or Mr. Rubalcaba.o With Rubalcaba.o The final sprint: micro-acts.
  21. 21. The Debate
  22. 22. The DebateWho won?
  23. 23. Online strategyo General strategyo 6 pilars: – Coordinated campaign: – Campaign customization – Vote to the president – Strategy development: – We did not work by ourselves. – Integrated in the campaign team. – Integral presence: – Channels
  24. 24. Online Campaign Results Daily mentions to each Party on Social Media (showing voting intention)
  25. 25. Twitter 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 @marianorajoy @conRubalcabaFollowers 125,790 80,936 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 Rajoy 40000 Rubalcaba 20000 0
  26. 26. Most frequent words RAJOY Thanks: (540) Program/Program PP (262/179) Sumatealcambio (160) Employment (134) Government (84) Measures (81) PP (173) PSOE (10) RUBALCABARajoy (209)PSOE (145)PP (104)Program (93)Debate (90)ireply(73)RajoydoesntanswerAlfredodoesnthide (70)Thanks (70)
  27. 27. Tweet Type @marianorajoy @conRubalcaba 6% 12% 10% 39% Announcements Announcements Replies Replies RT RT 51%82%
  28. 28. Candidate Mentions
  29. 29. AssessmentAverage daily assessment
  30. 30. International Media presence 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 @marianorajoy @conRubalcabaMentions 67,351 55,675
  31. 31. Facebook70,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000 0 Mariano Rajoy RubalcabaFriends 69,599 47,989
  32. 32. YouTube140,000120,000100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 “Rajoyistas por el mundo 1” “Rajoyistas por el mundo 2” “Rajoyistas por el mundo Rajoy responde(taxista) 3” “Rubalcaba,“Rubalcaba: escuchar, hacer, explicar” proclamación” sí” “Acto de “Pelea por lo que quieres” 4 Videos most seen by 21 November 2011
  33. 33. 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 8618-Oct19-Oct20-Oct21-Oct22-Oct23-Oct24-Oct25-Oct26-Oct27-Oct28-Oct29-Oct30-Oct31-Oct 1-Nov 2-Nov 3-Nov 4-Nov 5-Nov Klout 6-Nov 7-Nov 8-Nov 9-Nov10-Nov11-Nov12-Nov13-Nov14-Nov15-Nov16-Nov17-Nov18-Nov19-Nov20-Nov21-Nov
  34. 34. Google Trends
  35. 35. Facebook Presential Twitter acts TV Google+ ChannelsRadio Linkedin Mailing Tuenti Web
  36. 36. Fundraising Public resources Affiliates BondsCampaign funding
  37. 37. ELECTION RESULTS
  38. 38. Election Results
  39. 39. CONCLUSION
  40. 40. Conclusion• Lessons learned • Predictions1. Strategy, don´t lose 1. A very hard time your way 2. Back to the streets2. Primaries could be a 3. New parties or new good idea approach inside the3. Take care of your parties. people
  41. 41. ¡THANK YOU! @rafarubio @dogcomunicacion

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