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Le politiche per salvare l'Euro: la BCE

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Le politiche per salvare l'Euro: la BCE

  1. 1. La crisi dell’Euro. Parte seconda: le politiche di salvataggio – Novembre 2011 www.quattrogatti.info La Banca Centrale Europea <ul><li>Cosa ha fatto : </li></ul><ul><li>Comprato titoli di stato dei paesi in difficoltà </li></ul><ul><li>Prestato soldi alle banche </li></ul><ul><li>Prima alzato e poi abbassato i tassi di interesse </li></ul><ul><li>Cosa servirebbe : </li></ul><ul><li>Un programma di acquisto dei titoli di stato più deciso e più chiaro </li></ul><ul><li>Un cambio di mandato per svolgere il ruolo di prestatore di ultima istanza </li></ul>
  2. 2. www.quattrogatti.info La crisi dell’Euro. Parte seconda: le politiche di salvataggio – Novembre 2011 Cosa ha fatto la BCE? <ul><li>Azioni per alleviare la crisi del debito : </li></ul><ul><li>Ha creato un programma speciale temporaneo, detto SMP, per comprare i titoli </li></ul><ul><li>di stato dei paesi dell’area euro in difficoltà </li></ul><ul><li>In questo modo i tassi di interesse dei debiti di questi paesi diminuiscono </li></ul><ul><li>Finora la BCE ha speso 187 miliardi € per questo programma. </li></ul><ul><li>Azioni per alleviare la crisi finanziaria : </li></ul><ul><li>Ha creato un programma di prestiti , detto LTRO,della durata di un anno a tassi </li></ul><ul><li>di interesse agevolati che le banche possono richiedere in misura illimitata </li></ul><ul><li>Offre liquidità alle banche per un massimo di tre mesi in cambio di garanzie </li></ul><ul><li>(titoli di stato, titoli di banche , note di credito etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Queste due misure servono ad aiutare le banche in carenza di liquidità </li></ul>
  3. 3. www.quattrogatti.info La crisi dell’Euro. Parte seconda: le politiche di salvataggio – Novembre 2011 Per regolamento dettato dall’Unione Europea, la BCE deve innanzitutto preoccuparsi di mantenere una bassa inflazione (2%) e poi può occuparsi della crescita Quest’anno mentre l’Europa si incanalava in una crisi storica, la BCE preoccupata dell’inflazione, è stata l’unica banca centrale ad alzare i tassi di interesse per due volte Tasso ufficiale di sconto Cosa ha fatto per la crescita? Secondo il premio nobel Paul Krugman questi rialzi passeranno alla storia come esempio di “ politica idiota ”: alzare i tassi di interesse deprime l’economia (è più costoso per le imprese fare investimenti e per le famiglie comprare beni). Una mossa inopportuna in quel momento Mario Draghi , non appena nominato nuovo governatore della BCE, ha subito abbassato i tassi mostrando una maggiore attenzione alla crescita
  4. 4. www.quattrogatti.info La crisi dell’Euro. Parte seconda: le politiche di salvataggio – Novembre 2011 <ul><li>La crisi non è finita…cosa servirebbe per uscirne ?: </li></ul><ul><li>Un programma di acquisto titoli più deciso e più chiaro : La BCE non specifica le precise quantità di debito che compra e di quali stati (solo i totali). Gli acquisti sono discrezionali, senza meccanismi precisi e dichiarati (In un periodo di grande nervosismo e volatilità sui mercati regole chiare probabilmente aiuterebbero) Il programma SMP è temporaneo, la BCE ha sottolineato che terminerà nel 2012 Considerando che la banca centrale USA ha comprato titoli americani per un valore di 1300 miliardi di euro e che i debiti GIIPS ammontano a 3300 miliardi, i 187 miliardi di euro spesi dalla BCE sono pochi </li></ul><ul><li>Un ruolo di prestatore di ultima istanza per i paesi dell’area euro: Vuol dire che la BCE dichiara apertamente di accollarsi i debiti di uno stato nell’ipotesi di un suo fallimento (stampando euro la BCE può farlo) </li></ul>Cosa servirebbe?
  5. 5. www.quattrogatti.info La crisi dell’Euro. Parte seconda: le politiche di salvataggio – Novembre 2011 Cosa servirebbe? <ul><li>Queste due politiche tranquillizzerebbero i mercati ed avrebbero un ruolo chiave per risolvere la crisi del debito e quella finanziaria </li></ul><ul><li>Ma ci sono dei problemi di implementazione : </li></ul><ul><li>In base ai trattati europei la BCE non può svolgere il ruolo di prestatore di ultima </li></ul><ul><li>istanza, quindi questi andrebbero modificati (non facile in tempi brevi) </li></ul><ul><li>La mancanza di un titolo di debito europeo uniforme (ad es. Eurobonds ) rende </li></ul><ul><li>più complessa un’azione della BCE simile a quella della banca centrale USA </li></ul><ul><li>Per motivi politici ed economici la Germania si oppone fortemente a queste </li></ul><ul><li>azioni: ritiene che generebbero inflazione ed eliminerebbero incentivi alle </li></ul><ul><li>riforme (ad es. l’ articolo del ministro degli esteri tedesco Guido Westerwelle sul F.T.) </li></ul>
  6. 6. La crisi dell’Euro. Parte prima: la crisi del debito – Novembre 2011 GRAZIE PER L’ATTENZIONE! Ringraziamo Francesco Caselli (London School of Economics) e Francesco Daveri (Università di Parma) per i commenti ricevuti. Presentazione a cura di Giuseppe Berlingieri e Fadi Hassan Se hai apprezzato la presentazione, inoltra il link ai tuoi amici e sostieni il nostro progetto ! Per commenti, domande, informazioni scrivici a [email_address] www.quattrogatti.info

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